How do we know a pandemic's over?

[marting]

Outside of Chinese and a few other SE Asians, masks haven't been seen here for 18 months.

No matter what the official line is, in the minds of the overwhelming majority of people, the pandemic is over.

Yeah, that was my takeaway. Pandemic? What Pandemic! Other than the pandemic of political nonsense the USA seems gripped by.

 

[jt512]

Here, even the women that used to cross to the otherside of the street while wearing a mask to avoid being within 10 ft of others, doesn't wear a mask. I still see some folks in masks in the grocery but it's pretty uncommon. Part of it is that there is at least some evidence that to provide any benefit, a mask has to be a properly fitted N95 worn more or less when ever you are indoors. So a lot of folks gave up on that score.

I think there's more than "some" evidence for high-quality masks, and I don't think you have to wear one all the time you're indoors to benefit. If you wear one in high-risk environments, you will greatly reduce your chance of getting a respiratory illness.

I'm going to Hamburg in a couple days and will likely wear an FFP3 mask on the S-Bahn, where it always seems like one person in three has a cough. I don't want to get what they've got even if it is just a cold.

 

[ahhell]

I think there's more than "some" evidence for high-quality masks, and I don't think you have to wear one all the time you're indoors to benefit. If you wear one in high-risk environments, you will greatly reduce your chance of getting a respiratory illness.

I'm going to Hamburg in.a couple days and will likely wear an FFP3 mask on the S-Bahn, where it always seems like one person in three has a cough. I don't want to get what they've got even if it is just a cold.

Its probably wise and generally good even despite covid to were one in crowded places.

To be clear though, what I meant was there is reason to believe that non-n95 masks have little benefit and that if the n95 is not properly fitted, it's effectiveness will be compromised.

I was not trying to minimize the evidence that an n95 worn correctly will reduce spread.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

There are apparently selective pressures on diseases to ensure this happens. A host dying to quickly won't spread the disease.

Only a small proportion of people who caught Covid-19 died from it, so I don't think avoiding death of the host was a large factor. But most were self-isolating once they discovered that they (or someone they lived with) had it, which selected for variants with less 'Covid-like' symptoms that could be shrugged off as 'just a cold or the flu'.

So Covid is now benefiting from the normalization of other viruses that people don't treat seriously. If we applied Covid rules to other highly infectious diseases it would knock all of them back dramatically.

In New Zealand we had the same Covid trajectory as the US, but completely eliminated it in a few weeks with a blanket lockdown. If it wasn't for foreigners bringing in more infectious variants we would still be Covid-free today.

Two pandemics more than 100 years apart – comparison reveals best strategies for the future

An historical review, published in the international Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal, led by University of Otago, Wellington researchers compares the outcomes and strategies employed during the fast-moving influenza pandemic of 1918-19, and the COVID‑19 pandemic that began in 2020, but is still present more than three years later...

The findings strongly support the vigorous elimination strategy taken by Aotearoa for COVID‑19.

“By largely keeping COVID‑19 from circulating in New Zealand for almost two years, we saved an estimated 20,000 lives compared with the high excess mortality seen in other countries. In the United States, COVID‑19 has now killed 1.13 million people, far more than the 675,000 people who died from the influenza pandemic in 1918-19. Deaths from COVID-19 in New Zealand are 3,347 to date, far fewer than the 9,000 people killed in the 1918 flu pandemic.”...

Co-author Professor Nick Wilson, of the University of Otago, Wellington, says the study’s findings show a need for a pandemic plan that covers a wide range of pandemic organisms and scenarios and a systematic approach to reduce health inequities.

“The plan at the start of 2020 was for influenza which had been the main cause of pandemics in New Zealand during the past century, in 1918, 1957, 1968 and 2009...

Our previous plan largely accepted that we would simply let the pandemic wash over us – a mitigation strategy – as we did in 1918. Yet, as this analysis shows, we had much better outcomes with an elimination strategy.”

Got my XBB 1.5 vaccination today. It is supposed to 'closely match' JN.1.

Covid variant JN.1 becomes dominant strain:

15 February 2024

Almost all Covid-19 cases in Aotearoa are now caused by the latest variant JN.1, according to the latest data, with an immunity expert saying it became the dominant strain "very rapidly"...

Medsafe approved Pfizer's application for an updated shot for the XBB.1.5 strain in December and it will be available in time for the upcoming winter season.

"American data is showing the vaccine looks highly effective to the strain, so that's very reassuring," Dr Turner said.

But Covid was not the only virus we needed to worry about, she said.
"Flu is nasty and it kills."

She said most flu cases were in winter, but recently there had been some non-seasonal outbreaks.

The new flu vaccine would be available in March.

Dr Turner said it was essential people got it, especially because it was updated each year to match the variance.

Covid-19 is 3 times more prevalent here than it was in July (our winter time) and is showing no sign of abating. Hopefully enough people will get the latest vaccine to keep it down. While I was waiting at the pharmacy after getting my shot 2 other people came in for it, which is a good sign. However the RNZ Covid-19 data page no longer shows vaccinations rates, so we may never know what proportion of the public is fully vaccinated. I'm betting it won't get above 10%. And we all know what that means...

 

[Roger Ramjets]

How Covid-19's symptoms have changed with each new variant

Covid-19 cases are starting to rise again as a result of the JN.1 Covid variant, which appeared last September in France. The variant accounts for around 60% of new infections in early January, according to a data tracker from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

At the same time, data from both the CDC and the UK Health Security Agency shows that hospitalisations and deaths from Covid-19 are markedly lower compared to January 2023. Primary care physicians say they are finding it virtually impossible to distinguish Covid-19 symptoms from influenza without the help of a PCR test....

While this might all suggest that the virus is evolving to become progressively less pathogenic, epidemiologists believe that the reality of the situation is more nuanced.

"The virus isn't necessarily less pathogenic," says Greg Towers, professor of molecular virology at University College London, UK. "Rather, it's infecting a population that are less inclined to become sick, because they've seen Sars-CoV-2 before, and they're better at regulating [their] immune response against it."...

Denis Nash, an epidemiologist at the City University of New York, US, says that people now experiencing Covid-19 for the very first time are at greater risk, especially if it has been a while since their last booster vaccine.

"There are still people who have somehow managed to remain completely Covid-näive," says Nash. "If they are unvaccinated or under vaccinated, they stand to have the highest risk of severe and protracted symptoms."...

This all indicates the ongoing importance for all age groups of remaining up to date with vaccine boosters, but while politicians have long been keen to move on from Covid, Strain says it is vital to keep monitoring how different variants continue to infect us.
"Symptoms do seem to change from one variant to another," he says. "We've had periods where the earliest symptom is headache, and others where it's more gastrointestinal. We all to go back to life as normal, but the reality is, Covid isn't going anywhere."

 

[The Atheist]

Covid-19 is 3 times more prevalent here than it was in July (our winter time) and is showing no sign of abating.

What a crock - you're deliberately trying to paint a misleading picture.

There was virtually no covid in NZ last July, so being triple that is still hardly any. The numbers are a tiny fraction of those during the peak waves.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/450874/covid-19-data-visualisations-nz-in-numbers

 

[Roger Ramjets]

What a crock - you're deliberately trying to paint a misleading picture.

There was virtually no covid in NZ last July, so being triple that is still hardly any.

So why isn't there still 'hardly any'? That's what we would expect if the pandemic was truly 'over', but it didn't happen. Instead the numbers have surged again and stayed higher.

The numbers are a tiny fraction of those during the peak waves.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/450874/covid-19-data-visualisations-nz-in-numbers

The case numbers are 'tiny', but they are depressed by low reporting. We know the actual numbers are much higher through the proxies of hospitalizations and wastewater testing.

Hospitalizations are currently 28% of the highest peak on March 13, 2022. That's not a 'tiny' fraction. Normalized wastewater detections are ~3 times higher than reported cases, compared to being close to the same before September 2023.

What's more disturbing is the increasing proportion who are catching it more than once, which indicates that immunity doesn't last. We are only one mutation away from another pandemic rivaling the first one, with the added disadvantage that people won't take the necessary precautions this time.

 

[The Atheist]

So why isn't there still 'hardly any'? That's what we would expect if the pandemic was truly 'over', but it didn't happen. Instead the numbers have surged again and stayed higher.

Endemic diseases can do that.

Hospitalizations are currently 28% of the highest peak on March 13, 2022. That's not a 'tiny' fraction.

You know damned well what our hospital system is like. The January before covid had hospitals stretched to breaking point. Right now, they're just busy and well under the load they'll have during winter.

What's more disturbing is the increasing proportion who are catching it more than once, which indicates that immunity doesn't last.

That's why new vaccines are important.

We are only one mutation away from another pandemic rivaling the first one, with the added disadvantage that people won't take the necessary precautions this time.

I don't believe that's true. The possibility of recombination exists, but I don't think covid is going to cause that level of harm again.

A different virus, sure. I've been saying for a long time, if we get a SARS/MERS-type pandemic head for the Ureweras, because society will be screwed.

 

[ahhell]

Only a small proportion of people who caught Covid-19 died from it, so I don't think avoiding death of the host was a large factor.

But most were self-isolating once they discovered that they (or someone they lived with) had it, which selected for variants with less 'Covid-like' symptoms that could be shrugged off as 'just a cold or the flu'.

So Covid is now benefiting from the normalization of other viruses that people don't treat seriously. If we applied Covid rules to other highly infectious diseases it would knock all of them back dramatically.

In New Zealand we had the same Covid trajectory as the US, but completely eliminated it in a few weeks with a blanket lockdown. If it wasn't for foreigners bringing in more infectious variants we would still be Covid-free today.

Two pandemics more than 100 years apart – comparison reveals best strategies for the future



Got my XBB 1.5 vaccination today. It is supposed to 'closely match' JN.1.

Covid variant JN.1 becomes dominant strain:

Covid-19 is 3 times more prevalent here than it was in July (our winter time) and is showing no sign of abating. Hopefully enough people will get the latest vaccine to keep it down. While I was waiting at the pharmacy after getting my shot 2 other people came in for it, which is a good sign. However the RNZ Covid-19 data page no longer shows vaccinations rates, so we may never know what proportion of the public is fully vaccinated. I'm betting it won't get above 10%. And we all know what that means... :mad

:

Its all on the margins with evolution, and viruses evolve quickly, the version that is less virulent and more contagious spreads more quickly, if it convers the same immune response, or nearly enough, it crowds out the version that is more virulent, in part because the more virulent version can't spread more quickly.

 

[icerat]

There are apparently selective pressures on diseases to ensure this happens.

The selective pressure is on not dying before the virus has spread to a new host. In the case of Covid, even from the first variant, the majority of transmission occurs before a person even has noticeable symptoms.

I can't find any estimates past 2022 - where you getting your recent data from?

OECD 2023 excess deaths (still *very* incomplete) is around 500000. OECD is 17% of the world's population. That extrapolates to just under 3 million excess deaths globally. Obviously a very rough estimate, but remains likely to exceed 2 million, ie "millions"

 

[The Atheist]

OECD 2023 excess deaths (still *very* incomplete) is around 500000. OECD is 17% of the world's population. That extrapolates to just under 3 million excess deaths globally. Obviously a very rough estimate, but remains likely to exceed 2 million, ie "millions"

I'll get in before FLD does.

The question was "where are you getting your data", not "please quote some number you pulled out of the air".

Now maybe try posting a link to the data you're using. It's going to be wrong and I'll gladly explain it to you, because the only thing I can find is this absurd chart which shows excess mortality increase percentages ranging from +600% to -150% and is therefore clearly nonsensical and needs no debunking.

There are not millions of people dying of covid, and if you think there are, you should be in the conspiracy section, because hospitals and governments across the world are covering them up.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Today I told the lady I am working with about getting the latest vaccine, and she told me that her (adult) daughter works at the local supermarket and a lot of the staff there are off sick with Covid. So I drop into the supermarket on the way home and the checkout girl is wearing a mask!

Seems someone forgot to tell the virus that the pandemic's over.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Its all on the margins with evolution, and viruses evolve quickly, the version that is less virulent and more contagious spreads more quickly, if it convers the same immune response, or nearly enough, it crowds out the version that is more virulent, in part because the more virulent version can't spread more quickly.

But health professionals are saying that the latest version isn't necessarily less virulent, it's just that as a result of evading immunity it's causing different symptoms that 'just happen to be' the same as influenza. I suggest this isn't just coincidence. Evolution is all about survival of the 'fittest' - ie. those best fitted to the environment. Human behavior can be a big part of that environment.

The behavioral response to catching Covid-19 is typically harder on it than other viruses people shrug off as 'just another cold' and don't bother to self-isolate etc. So a Covid-19 variant that mimics those 'lesser' diseases has more opportunity to propagate. Combine that with vaccines helping the body to fight it causing (generally) milder symptoms and the 'subterfuge' is complete. The slack attitude we have towards common viruses does the rest.

You could argue that if it creates symptoms similar to other viruses that aren't so dangerous then what's the problem? Well firstly those other viruses aren't necessarily not so dangerous (the flu kills about half a million people a year on average). Secondly there is evidence that even the latest variants can cause micro blood clots, so while the initial symptoms may resemble a 'regular' cold or flu the end result may still be more serious.

 

[icerat]

I'll get in before FLD does.

The question was "where are you getting your data", not "please quote some number you pulled out of the air".

I'm getting my data from ... OECD excess deaths.

Now maybe try posting a link to the data you're using. It's going to be wrong and I'll gladly explain it to you, because the only thing I can find is this absurd chart which shows excess mortality increase percentages ranging from +600% to -150% and is therefore clearly nonsensical and needs no debunking.

Apologies for not giving a link, but seems you found it. I changed to Excess Deaths (number) and did the math.

Was 550K when I looked for my original post. Currently 400K, but as I said, very incomplete data, fluctuates a lot. Unfortunately I don't know when it will be finalised.

There are not millions of people dying of covid, and if you think there are, you should be in the conspiracy section, because hospitals and governments across the world are covering them up.

So ... now Excess Deaths is a poor metric of pandemic impact, eh? Or is that just because you don't like what it says?

 

[The Atheist]

I'm getting my data from ... OECD excess deaths.

As noted, it's worthless, unless Colombia has found a way to reanimate the dead. The numbers are plainly GIGO.

UK has reliable statistics and does have a larger than expected excess mortality rate.

As a result of them keeping good records, we know for certain the excess deaths aren't covid, and unless you can come up with a compelling reason UK is different to the rest of the OECD, your premise is busted.

So ... now Excess Deaths is a poor metric of pandemic impact, eh? Or is that just because you don't like what it says?

Things are desperate when you resort to that kind of nonsense. Of course excess deaths aren't a good metric of the pandemic. Knowing what the people died of is the only metric that matters, and in the case of UK, we know it's not covid.

 

[icerat]

UK has reliable statistics and does have a larger than expected excess mortality rate.

As a result of them keeping good records, we know for certain the excess deaths aren't covid, and unless you can come up with a compelling reason UK is different to the rest of the OECD, your premise is busted.

Did you even read the paper you linked to? They literally say they don't know what the cause is, and it could be covid. Of interest, EM in UK is worse now in groups *that can get vaccinated*

UK has of course also now changed methodology and is including Covid years in their baseline

in the case of UK, we know it's not covid.

Not according to the article you provided.

But tell me ... what's the biggest diagnosed cause of an increase in UK mortality?

 

[The Atheist]

Did you even read the paper you linked to? They literally say they don't know what the cause is...

Who's reading it wrong?

Deaths involving cardiovascular diseases were 33% higher than expected, while for specific cardiovascular diseases, deaths involving ischaemic heart diseases were 44% higher, cerebrovascular diseases 40% higher and heart failure 39% higher. Deaths involving acute respiratory infections were 43% higher than expected and for diabetes, deaths were 35% higher. Deaths involving liver diseases were 19% higher than expected for those aged 50–64, the same as for deaths at all ages.

Those are the excess deaths.

But tell me ... what's the biggest diagnosed cause of an increase in UK mortality?

I already said - CVD, as shown in the quote above.

 

[Pixel42]

I think the question is: what is the cause of this overall increase in UK mortality? Listing the increases for each individual cause of death doesn't tell you why they've all gone up.

From the link:

The causes of these excess deaths are likely to be multiple and could include the direct effects of Covid-19 infection,1 acute pressures on NHS acute services resulting in poorer outcomes from episodes of acute illness,4 and disruption to chronic disease detection and management.5 Further analysis by cause and by age- and sex-group may help quantify the relative contributions of these causes.

 

[gabeygoat]

I think the question is: what is the cause of this overall increase in UK mortality? Listing the increases for each individual cause of death doesn't tell you why they've all gone up.

From the link:

exactly.

 

[Orphia Nay]

Outside of Chinese and a few other SE Asians, masks haven't been seen here for 18 months.

No matter what the official line is, in the minds of the overwhelming majority of people, the pandemic is over.

We still see a few masks here.

Not sure there’s been any official announcements, but the local government this month have stopped giving out free RAT tests.

Had to buy some from from the chemist today. $27.95 for 5!

Seems we’re supposed to just get sick from “something” and not know what it is, like with colds and viruses before the pandemic.