How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

https://www.espn.com.au/olympics/st...lian-water-polo-olympians-test-positive-covid
Sure sucks to be an athlete right now.
Here's hoping that it doesn't become the Covolympics.

It already is! (And we know that hope is not a strategy!)
Australia is ahead in water polo, but it shouldn't be too difficult for the others to catch up:

And....
THEY'RE OFF
****.... Competition doesn't even start for a few days...
Sooner than expected....
Not surprised...
Covidologists everywhere will watch with interest

Fact from Fiction
Australian water polo player isolated in the Paris Olympic village due to positive Covid test

David Joffe MB BS (Hons), PhD, FRACP (X, July 23, 2024)

Let the games begin. The Covid Olympics.
Gourlay (care to reason) (X, July 23, 2024)

The Covid Olympics.
Looks like Australia in the lead in Water Polo, with 5 points
Gourlay (care to reason) (X, July 24, 2024)

Five Australian water polo players test positive to Covid.
Source: https://heraldsun.com.au/sport/olym...t/news-story/1be494ac13b2f48f307492af18715014
Denis - The COVID info guy - (X, July 24, 2024)

No one could have predicted this. (irony emoji)
Anna Karenina (X, July 24, 2024)

And in the real news:
First COVID case at Paris Olympics: Australian water polo player isolated (Times of India, July 23, 2024)
Two Australian water polo Olympians test positive for COVID-19 in Paris (7News.au, July 23, 2024)
Australia Olympics Covid outbreak deepens as THREE more stars test positive ahead of the Paris Games (DailyMail, July 24, 2024)
Five Aussie water polo players infected before Games (Yahoo, July 24, 2024)
Australian water polo team in crisis as more players test positive for COVID (7News.au, July 24, 2024)

The obvious solution is, of course, to deny that it's a crisis:
Officials play down Covid cluster fears after water polo players test positive (Reuters, July 23, 2024)

 

[dann]

Why?

That's what denial is like: It starts out as a tool to keep your fears at bay, but it soon becomes an addiction.
"Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it?! That's what it is to be a slave."

 

[dann]

Denmark:

IThe article doesn't mention any numbers, but there is a link to this article with graphs:
Overvågning af influenza, covid-19, RS-virus og andre luftvejssygdomme (SSI.dk, July 17--> July 24, 2024)

I have to go to another site to find out that the number of hospitalizations was 139 in the most recent 7 days. It was 83 the week before that. The percentage of positives is now 15.9. If I remember correctly, it was 11.5% the previous week.

This week, the number of hospitalizations rose to 170, the percentage of C19 positives rose to 16.7.
The number of C19 deaths also appears to be rising, but it is too early to say. We will know next week when this week's numbers are adjusted.

 

[dann]

Denmark:
The same Danish expert, Bolette Søborg, who advised an asthmatic who is allergic to penicillin to get vaccinated in October and a woman with sclerosis to go ahead with her plans of joining others for a summer camp, has this to say about the Danish Olympic team:

It is obvious that in a situation with a high level of infection, there is a risk that you may get ill. Also when many share a tight space. So this is clearly something that I think they will take into consideration.
And hand sanitizer is one of those tools that are useful to keep the infection at bay, she explains.
Goodie bags with hand sanitizer: Danish Olympic athletes are keeping an eye on the corona infection (DR.dk, July 20, 2024)

So no recommendation of face masks for Danish athletes - or for asthmatics or sclerosis patients. She is worse than useless.

The Danish Olympic athletes may fare better than I thought. The quotation was from an article published in the morning. Later that same day, another article appeared:

Når de danske OL-håb i firerkajak rejser til Portugal i den kommende uge på holdets sidste træningslejr før OL i Paris, bliver det med mundbind på.
De fire mænd holder nemlig øje med den stigende coronasmitte. For ifølge de seneste tal fra Statens Serum Institut (SSI) er den steget "meget kraftigt".
Danske OL-håb vil bruge mundbind, håndsprit og holde afstand: 'Kommer til at koste, hvis de bliver svækket' (DR.dk, July 20, 2024)

When the Danish four-man-kayak team goes to Portugal next week for the last week of training before the Olympic Games in Paris, they will be masking up.
The four men are keeping an eye on the rising level of COVID-19 infections. According to the most recent numbers from Statens Serum Institut (SSI), there has been a "very fierce" uptick.
Danish Olympic athletes will use face masks, hand sanitizer and social distancing: 'It will cost us dearly if they are weakened'

It's just the health of ordinary people that doesn't matter.

 

[dann]

Reality Check

Time to take another look at an old prediction?

... 'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that. ...

Much lower than ~500 a year?!
Nope, still very far from reality - in spite of NZ's new way of counting:
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the last 12 --> 11 months (July 19, 2023, to June 16, 2024).
Has NZ now stopped counting and/or reporting or has it just been delayed?!

 

[dann]

I didn't forget about this:

I'll get back the rest of your post later this week.

I'm just waiting for ZDoggMD to post a follow-up video about his bout with COVID-19.
It will be interesting to see if he has learned anything from his experience with the infection.
His first video about it made it obvious that he didn't learn anything from other people's experience, not even when he presented it on his YouTube channel:

 

[The Atheist]

That's what denial is like: It starts out as a tool to keep your fears at bay, but it soon becomes an addiction.
"Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it?! That's what it is to be a slave."

Pure projection - the walls of text confirm how scared you are.

You accuse me of being scared, but what of?

Masks? I've openly stated my son and I wear them. People wearing masks don't bother me at all, but an extremely small number of people have any interest in doing so.

Vaccines? I've openly stated that I have had all available boosters.

What I'm not scared of is covid, and you plainly are.

It is bloody hilarious, the knots you twist yourself into to project your fears onto others, though.

Another wall of text coming in 3..2..1..

 

[dann]

The "walls of text" are what is called documentation: quotations and links. Most people here at the ISF are familiar with the concept.
What is plain is that The Atheist objects to any and all documentation of an actual ongoing pandemic - mostly without arguments other than his attempts to psychologize the posting of that documentation.
I don't really care why documentation of the pandemic scares him. I am not trying to scare him. I mainly present documentation of the ongoing pandemic. I leave the 'screeching like a banshee' to him. For the most part, the documentation speaks for itself.
He is right about one thing, though: More documentation is on the way!

 

[dann]

“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.”

Are there specific COVID protocols at the Paris Olympic Games?
In Paris, there will be no specific COVID restrictions and the virus will be handled in the same way as a common cold or the flu. That means there will be no asymptomatic testing of athletes, mask mandates or isolation periods.

However, Jonathan Finnoff, the chief medical officer at the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic Committee, said the USOPC will follow CDC guidelines to prevent the spread of all respiratory viruses, including COVID-19, the flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
These include five core prevention strategies: immunization, proper hygiene, clean air, treatment and staying home when sick. And three additional prevention strategies: masks, social distancing and regular testing. The CDC also recommends staying home and away from others until your symptoms are getting better and you are fever-free for 24 hours, and then use added precautions for the next five days.
“We won't do anything beyond what the CDC is recommending, but we absolutely want to prevent the spread of infectious disease,” Finnoff said, adding that respiratory infection hinders athletes’ “ability to compete at the highest level.”
COVID protocols at Paris Olympic Games: What happens if an athlete tests positive? (USA Today, July 25, 2024)

It is almost as if Jonathan Finnoff had heard about the Davos standard, isn't it?!
Or maybe he just happens to know about good old-fashioned epidemiology supplied with knowledge of what it takes to fight an airborne disease in 2024.

It is obvious that the people responsible for the safety of the U.S. Olympic team don't agree with the organizers of the Paris event on the lack of precautions to prevent COVID-19 from spreading among the athletes. And Jonathan Finnoff and his people are not the only ones:

We have been enthusiastic in the preparation of the Games as international volunteers. However, we are more and more worried at the lack of any actions from the organizers to address the epidemic of Covid-19 that is still going on across Europe and the world.
We are volunteers, young and old, disabled and non-disabled, main-volunteers and substitutes, all brought up togther by our passion for sports, and involved on various assignments for the Olympic and Paralympic Games. We have been enthusiastic in the preparation of the Games as international volunteers. However, we are more and more worried of the lack of any actions from the organizers to address the epidemic of Covid-19 that is still going on across Europe and the world. We demand effective sanitary measures against the virus, to protect the inhabitants of Paris and Seine-Saint-Denis, the athletes, the public, and the volunteers. If no steps are taken, we will collectively resign of our assignments, and will not show up on the Oympic and Paralympic sites we have been staffed.
Covid-19 pandemic threat denial is not an antidote to contamination
We are Volunteers for Paris 2024 and we resign due to the lack of Covid-19 measures (Volontaires Inquiets Paris 2024, July 15, 2024)

Le blog des Volontaires Inquiets Paris 2024

They are right, of course: Denial doesn't make the pandemic go away!
Reality is that which ...


ETA 1: By the way, I wouldn't know about the 'worried volunteers' in Paris if it weren't for this on X. It is not something that the media has been interested in telling us about - for whatever reason.

ETA 2:

Is there a COVID-19 outbreak at the Olympics?
No, there is not currently a COVID-19 outbreak at the Olympics. However, some experts say they’re worried that the Games will lead to an uptick in infections.
Plenty of athletes are concerned, too. The Australian swim team, for example, traveled while wearing face masks, according to news video circulating on Facebook.
But Olympics officials are downplaying concerns about an outbreak after several water polo players for Australia tested positive for COVID and were isolated.
“I need to emphasize that we are treating COVID no differently to other bugs like the flu. This is not Tokyo," Australia's Olympic team chief Anna Meares said at a press conference, per Reuters.
Five Olympic Athletes Have Tested Positive For Covid In Paris—But There’s No Protocol For What Happens Next (Women's Health, July 24, 2024)

 

[dann]

“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.”

Five members of the Australian women's Olympic water polo team have tested positive for Covid-19, according to Australian chef de mission Anna Meares. Four of the five athletes now feel well enough to train and compete, she noted. The fifth athlete seems close to joining them.
A larger outbreak among participants in the upcoming games has not been reported, but these cases serve as a reminder. Covid-19 has not gone away.
Covid Outbreak Among Olympian Athletes Serves As A Pandemic Reminder (Forbes, July 25, 2024)

However, as we already know, there is nothing Covid minimizers fear more than being reminded that the pandemic hasn't gone away.

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

Some people include the WHO.
Other people are too scared to keep up with news about the pandemic and prefer to live in denial of pandemic reality:

The number of infections has doubled in a week in Greece, while cases have also double in Cyprus, Belgium and Ireland. Greece's national health authority has reported a surge in Covid cases - three times higher than the same week last year, with 669 people hospitalized.
(...)
And Malta has reportedly seen cases of Covid increase almost 400% in recent months.
The World Health Organization also detected a similar surge in Luxembourg. While Portugal, the Netherlands, Poland and Norway have all seen significant increases in the disease.
In Portugal, the number of cases recorded surged by 700% between May and June, hitting 10,000 in July. Cases are also rising in the UK, with almost 18,000 new infections detected despite no routine testing.
The WHO has issued a stark warning to tourists heading abroad for the summer holidays. People are being urged to take Covid precautions including getting vaccinated, wearing masks and doing tests. WHO emphasised that the pandemic is far from over, with the virus still claiming 1,700 lives across the world each week.
Covid travel warning issued to anyone going on holiday to Greece, Portugal and other European countries (ChronicleLive/MSN, July 28, 2024)

As mentioned in post 1,043, the situation in isn't very different from the other EU countries.

 

[dann]

The dominant variants

KP.2.3 is the Biden variant:

Tracking #SARSCoV2 #Lineages - Globally 07/27/24
Top lineages -#30DayTrends
KP.3.1.1 (17.4%)
KP.2.3 (8.1%)
KP.3.3 (8%)
KP.3.1 (7.2%)
KP.3 (3.3%)
KP.2 (3.1%)
KP.3.1.4 (3.1%)
KP.3.2 (3%)
LB.1 (2.5%)
KP.3.2.3 (2.5%)
Track #G30 : https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/ConvergentLineages-VariantSoup-World/G20
Raj Rajnarayanan (X, July 28, 2024)

From a thread with several graphics.

 

[dann]

#SaltingTheVibes

 

[dann]

Excess deaths caused by COVID-19 and not the vaccine

Paul Griffin, an expert in infectious diseases and Professor of Medicine at the University of Queensland, said excess deaths would have occurred before then if vaccines were the culprit.
“It was only when we removed the restrictions, and COVID was introduced, that we saw deaths rise,” Professor Griffin said.
For 2022, WA’s excess mortality was 7.1 per cent, and last year it was 5.2 per cent.
In contrast, NSW recorded sustained excess mortality from the end of 2021 until the end of August 2022. Deaths were 11.5 per cent higher than expected for 2022. Victoria’s excess mortality in the same year was double that of WA at 14 per cent.
Excess mortality was only recorded when deaths exceeded the expected number by more than 5 per cent — what statisticians call the confidence interval.
In 2022, COVID-19 was the third-leading cause of death in Australia, and responsible for two-thirds of excess mortality — the first time an infectious disease had among the top five leading causes since the late 1960s.
Australia’s excess deaths caused by COVID-19 and not the vaccine, new evidence conclusively shows (The West Australian, July 28, 2024)

Not surprising at all, but antivaxxers have been (and are still) trying to sow confusion about this, using the simple fact that many countries kept restrictions in place more or less until most of their populations had been vaccinated against the virus. This meant that the death toll started to rise after the vaccinations, but antivaxxers probably haven't heard about the old logical fallacy post hoc ergo propter hoc (Wikipedia), and even if they have, antivaxxers still gonna antivax.

In Denmark, it was pretty obvious that the big dying may have started after the C19 vaccination, but not immediately after. It didn't begin until the very lax restrictions and mask mandates were suspended in the winter of 2021-22, after the third C19 vaccination by the end of 2021. It was much the same in the other Nordics with the exception of (almost) restriction-free, maskless Sweden where the big dying started right away:
Excess mortality: Cumulative deaths from all causes compared to projection based on previous years (NB: not per capita!)
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people

 

[dann]

The SARS-CoV-lympics

Adam Peaty has tested positive for Covid after feeling unwell prior to missing out on gold in the men’s 100 metre breaststroke final, Team GB have announced...
Adam Peaty tests positive for Covid day after missing out on Olympic gold (Telegraph, July 29, 2024)

Adam Peaty has tested positive for Covid-19 a day after winning silver for Team GB in the 100m breaststroke at the Paris Olympics.
Peaty missed out on a third consecutive gold medal by 0.02 seconds on Sunday and afterwards said he had been slightly unwell with “a little bit on my throat”.
A Team GB statement said the 29-year-old’s condition worsened overnight and he has now tested positive for coronavirus.
Peaty tests positive for Covid after winning silver (BBC Sport, July 29, 2024)

Before the games started, five of Australia’s women water polo players tested positive for COVID-19. This was followed by several as yet unidentified members of the Belgian Olympic delegation. This led to mounting concerns among workers that the Olympics will lead to a massive superspreading event, particularly as mutations to the virus have accelerated transmission.
(...)
Yet the Paris Olympics are proceeding without any significant public health safeguards, even after the catastrophic experience of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics that were postponed to 2021 due to the pandemic.
The 2024 Paris Olympics COVID-19 superspreader event (WSWS, July 29, 2024)

And then there are headlines like "Mystery virus ruins devastated Short's gold medal hopes" ...
What a mystery!

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

USA

On Friday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its COVID-19 wastewater tracker, showing that the ninth wave of mass infection is continuing across the United States. The Midwest and South saw the largest growth in transmission, while the West declined slightly but still has the highest COVID-19 levels of any region.
Using these data, infectious disease modeler JP Weiland estimates that 760,000 Americans are now contracting COVID-19 each day. He warned that the rising new variant KP.3.1.1 will become dominant within two weeks and likely push transmission even higher, potentially creating the largest summer wave of infections of the entire pandemic.
The latest wave of COVID-19 and Biden’s destruction of public health (WSWS, July 26, 2024)

July 26th update:
Infections flat this week after weeks of increases. This may or may not be the absolute peak, as KP.3.1.1 will become dominant in the first week of August.
��760,000 new infections/day ��1 in every 44 people currently infected ��37% higher than 12 month avg.JWeiland (X, July 26, 2024)

See graphics of Estimated Covid Infections/Day US in tweet.

 

[The Atheist]

The best way to tell if a pandemic is over is to see whether anyone apart from the few people with covidphobia are doing anything at all about the virus.

I went to the Dr this morning for a muscular issue and took count of the number of people wearing masks.

The Dr's clinic had 8 staff working in it, and 3 people waiting. The attached acute care/urgent clinic had 26 people waiting to be seen.

Total number of mask-wearers - 3. Me, one Chinese woman and one of the four frontline staff. My Dr wasn't wearing one and nor was the other Dr I noticed there. The urgent care doctors may have but I didn't see any of them.

The pharmacy next door had 14 customers through it while I was watching and zero wore masks, including the 3 staff of the pharmacy.

We're assured by covidphobics that the Olympics are the covid games, ruining athletes' chances of competing. Given that, I expected to see athletes wearing masks when not competing.

I haven't seen a single one yet.

It's plain that only the phobics still think there's a pandemic while the other 99,99999% of the population ignores it. It's an endemic disease and worse than catching a cold, which is pretty much what it is now.

Won't stop the phobics crying about it, though...

 

[dann]

“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.”

The best way to tell if a pandemic is over is to see whether anyone apart from the few people with covidphobia are doing anything at all about the virus.
(...)
I haven't seen a single one yet.
It's plain that only the phobics still think there's a pandemic while the other 99,99999% of the population ignores it. It's an endemic disease and worse than catching a cold, which is pretty much what it is now.
Won't stop the phobics crying about it, though...

I love The Atheist's pathetic Philip K. Dick interpretation: Pandemic reality goes away if only enough people stop believing in it.
I assume that his number, 99,99999%, is based on the delusion that he is the only one in New Zealand wearing a face mask because he, unlike everybody else, has a legit reason to do so.

Still, I consider it a step in the right direction that he now acknowledges that COVID-19 is "worse than catching a cold." In fact, it's much worse and not just for old people.

I will continue to post walls of facts. And The Atheist will no doubt continue to post his walls of anecdotes and false minimizing predictions.
As for his "endemic," see post 1,051: "WHO emphasised that the pandemic is far from over."

NZ: Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the last 12 months: 1,044; 593 since Jan 1. The numbers have been updated since post 1,045.

 

[The Atheist]

I will continue to post walls of facts.

No way!

And The Atheist will no doubt continue to post his walls of anecdotes and false minimizing predictions.

Nope, I'm done.

Nobody cares and nobody reads your tosh anyway.

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

Meanwhile, in the real world:

California’s COVID-19 test positivity rate has surpassed last summer’s peak, largely fueled by the FLiRT variants, particularly KP.3.1.1. The rapid spread of these strains suggests a likely rise in cases in the weeks ahead.
If it seems like many people around you are getting COVID-19, you’re not alone.
Federal data show coronavirus levels in California’s wastewater are surging to levels not seen in summertime since 2022, indicating a wide and worsening spread of COVID.
“We are seeing ... a definite, definite surge,” said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional chief of infectious disease at Kaiser Permanente Southern California.
The surge is clearly apparent in doctor’s offices and clinics where people are seeking outpatient treatment, Hudson said. But, thankfully, not many people are having to be hospitalized because of COVID-19 at this point.
“The wastewater numbers are still headed up. So we’re definitely seeing more and more cases,” Hudson said.
COVID surging in California, nears two-year summer high. ‘Almost everybody has it’ (Los Angeles Times, July 29, 2024)

Washington State: Walgreens Covid-19 test positivity at 57%
The figure has almost doubled in one week.
Walgreens Respiratory Index
https://walgreens.com/healthcare-solutions/covid-19-index
CoronaHeadsUp (X, July 30, 2024)

#covid « Le taux de positivité atteint 50% en Gironde, la maladie progresse fortement. »
https://www.actusante.net/actu/covi...-gironde-la-maladie-progresse-fortement-22003
Martine Mounier (X, July 29, 2024)

Paris Olympics: Romanian swimmer tests positive for Covid
Vlad Stancu has had Covid for three days. He hopes to compete again on August 3rd in the 1500m Freestyle event.
https://as.ro/jocurile-olimpice-202...cul-30-in-serii-n-am-mancat-deloc-425192.html
CoronaHeadsUp (X, July 30, 2024)