Okay, this isn't really my idea. National Review's John Derbyshire laid out the scenario, but last night's results suddenly make it look quite plausible.
The Dems are really hating the math right now. With no winner-takes-all primaries, it is now realistically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win enough delegates in the primaries to get nominated. Chances are, both candidates will go to the convention with about the same number of pledged delegates. Neither one will be remotely close to having 50% + 1.
So we get into the superdelegates. You can be sure both candidates' people are working furiously to get those superdelegates in line, making promises of cabinet jobs and cushy ambassadorships - Paris, London, Rome - and maybe even swearing they'll compromise a principle or two. The superdelegates break more or less 50-50 for Clinton and Obama. Okay, that gives Obama the nomination, because he'll have 50% + 1 of the delegates, right?
Not so fast. You forget - Florida and Michigan haven't voted. They had their primaries, but they held them too early, and their votes aren't getting counted. Hillary won both those primaries. If their votes are counted, she wins the nomination. If they aren't counted, nobody wins, because nobody has 50% + 1. But either way, there's an ugly fight.
Maybe the Supreme Court will get to decide who the Democratic nominee should be. Imagine Antonin Scalia voting on that; they'd vote 5-4 to make Dennis Kucinich the nominee. So you can be sure the Dems will settle it in-house, even if it turns ugly.
And an ugly brawl it will be. Neither candidate can win, but neither will withdraw. Desperate to break out of this deathly embrace, the party turns to someone with gravitas, a Nobel Prize winning, Academy Award winning statesman.
He's tanned, he's rested, he's ready.
The Dems are really hating the math right now. With no winner-takes-all primaries, it is now realistically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win enough delegates in the primaries to get nominated. Chances are, both candidates will go to the convention with about the same number of pledged delegates. Neither one will be remotely close to having 50% + 1.
So we get into the superdelegates. You can be sure both candidates' people are working furiously to get those superdelegates in line, making promises of cabinet jobs and cushy ambassadorships - Paris, London, Rome - and maybe even swearing they'll compromise a principle or two. The superdelegates break more or less 50-50 for Clinton and Obama. Okay, that gives Obama the nomination, because he'll have 50% + 1 of the delegates, right?
Not so fast. You forget - Florida and Michigan haven't voted. They had their primaries, but they held them too early, and their votes aren't getting counted. Hillary won both those primaries. If their votes are counted, she wins the nomination. If they aren't counted, nobody wins, because nobody has 50% + 1. But either way, there's an ugly fight.
And an ugly brawl it will be. Neither candidate can win, but neither will withdraw. Desperate to break out of this deathly embrace, the party turns to someone with gravitas, a Nobel Prize winning, Academy Award winning statesman.
He's tanned, he's rested, he's ready.
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(Yes, I know its an out of context bit . . . )