Houla Massacre, Syria: What If?

[geni]

Pardon? Look on a map. You can drive there by car.

No you can't Georgia is in the way and they don't get on. Something to do with a war back in 2008.

Foreign correspondents are expensive. As a result only a handful of news organisations can support enough of them to get into double figures (CNN, BBC, Al jezera, AFP, Routers just about, some French people) not only do you have to pay to get them somewhere you need support them there which requires serious cash (which incidentally is why we are getting next to no news out of Mali/Azawad). I seriously doubt the news market in Abkhazia (population less than a quater of a million) can support that kind of journalism which someone putting down some serious money in order to have them there. Who?

 

[Childlike Empress]

No you can't Georgia is in the way and they don't get on. Something to do with a war back in 2008.

Foreign correspondents are expensive. As a result only a handful of news organisations can support enough of them to get into double figures (CNN, BBC, Al jezera, AFP, Routers just about, some French people) not only do you have to pay to get them somewhere you need support them there which requires serious cash (which incidentally is why we are getting next to no news out of Mali/Azawad). I seriously doubt the news market in Abkhazia (population less than a quater of a million) can support that kind of journalism which someone putting down some serious money in order to have them there. Who?

This is plain silly. It's a small film crew, not a commando operation. Here's a photo of the guy.

 

[geni]

This is plain silly. It's a small film crew, not a commando operation. Here's a photo of the guy.

Thats nice where is the money coming from?

If foreign correspondents were as cheap as you appear to think they wouldn't be an endangered species would they?

 

[Childlike Empress]

Thats nice where is the money coming from?

If foreign correspondents were as cheap as you appear to think they wouldn't be an endangered species would they?

So you dismiss the whole thing because an Abkhazian film crew cannot be in Syria? By definition? That's really laughable. So what do you suggest? Did Assad fake the website of ANNA?

 

[geni]

So you dismiss the whole thing because an Abkhazian film crew cannot be in Syria? By definition? That's really laughable.

Oh no there are quite a number of options. One this that the thing is Russian funded. Although why Putin would feel the need the launder via Abkhazia is unclear.

Obviously Syrian funding is a possibility with Abkhazian journalists being chosen because they don't share Russian journalists distressing habit of being beaten up.

The most common extra-curricular funding source at this point is NGOs but I'm not sure which ones would be in play.

But really until you know where the money is coming from the report should be viewed as no more than an perhaps mildly entertaining diversion.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Oh no there are quite a number of options. One this that the thing is Russian funded. Although why Putin would feel the need the launder via Abkhazia is unclear.

Obviously Syrian funding is a possibility with Abkhazian journalists being chosen because they don't share Russian journalists distressing habit of being beaten up.

The most common extra-curricular funding source at this point is NGOs but I'm not sure which ones would be in play.

But really until you know where the money is coming from the report should be viewed as no more than an perhaps mildly entertaining diversion.

There is no big money necessary, you are making this up. It's completely possible for a small team of Abkhazian journalists to take a car and drive to Syria on their own. They're not all dirt poor, you know...

The Russians did not mention this report, you seem to make a connection between the two quotes in my post which I explicitely said isn't there.

To my knowledge this was also not mentioned by the Syrians, but it's possible that they are in the pocket of Assad, or that the witnesses are. Yet it's you who has to bring up any indication of this. "No money" certainly doesn't fly. As it is, Occams Razor cuts and this remains an interesting item and probably an important piece in the puzzle.

 

[Childlike Empress]

FTR, here is a brief summary of what the crew, which is apparently only him and a woman named Olga Kulygina, put together from all their interviewed witnesses:

[...] The town was attacked from the north-east by groups of bandits and mercenaries, numbering up to 700 people. The militants came from Ar-Rastan (the Brigade of al-Farouk from the Free Syrian Army led by the terrorist Abdul Razak Tlass and numbering 250), from the village of Akraba (led by the terrorist Yahya Al-Yousef), from the village Farlaha, joined by local gangsters, and from Al Hula.

The city of Ar-Rastan has long been abandoned by most civilians. Now Wahhabis from Lebanon dominate the scene, fueled with money and weapons by one of the main orchestrators of international terrorism, Saad Hariri, who heads the anti-Syrian political movement “Tayyar Al-Mustaqbal” (“Future Movement”). The road from Ar-Rastan to Al-Hula runs through Bedouin areas that remain mostly out of control of government troops, which made the militant attacks on Al Hula a complete surprise for the Syrian authorities.

When the rebels seized the lower checkpoint in the center of town and located next to the local police department, they began to sweep all the families loyal to the authorities in neighboring houses, including the elderly, women and children. Several families of the Al-Sayed were killed, including 20 young children and the family of the AbdulRazak. Many of those killed were “guilty” of the fact that they dared to change from Sunnis to Shiites. [...]

They are in Damascus now and were in Homs earlier. Found them on YT interviewing children in Baba Amr (notice the high-tech equipment, geni ):

 

[geni]

There is no big money necessary, you are making this up. It's completely possible for a small team of Abkhazian journalists to take a car and drive to Syria on their own. They're not all dirt poor, you know...

Okay so you know nothing of modern war reporting. Understandable. I to remember the days when it all boiled down to Centurion vs T55. However war has moved on the point where logistics of photography matter at least as much as those of tank shells sad though that may be. I suggest reading the relevant sections of Flat Earth News and probably The Bang Bang Club. Subscribing to the various blogs of news photographers may also be of interest. Money is everything in that business.

Still even if you ignore the cash element do you really think that the UN is going to have anything to do with a bunch of journalists who just happen to turn up from an unrecognised state unless someone a bit more serious is backing them?

The Russians did not mention this report, you seem to make a connection between the two quotes in my post which I explicitely said isn't there.

Look I can forgive you for now following modern media trends but if you are going to forget the south ossetia war can I request that you never express an opinion of the topic of modern warfare ever again? Sure it was atypical in this era but that's what made it so special.

Still on the off-chance you spent 2008 in a coma or have some other valid excuse Abkhazia was create by Russia, is controlled by Russia and if there is money moving around there its a given that Moscow is involved somewhere.

 

[Caustic Logic]

After a week of silence, there's a statement of the russian foreign ministry about the massacre.




Although not mentioned, it's likely that they also base their conclusion on the report of an Abkhazian journalist team which was in the region and has interviewed witnesses independently of the Syrian authorities. Their original Russian report including videos of the interviews is here, and an English translation of a German translation is here.

This is all quite detailed, including names of some (the locals, presumably) of the terrorists involved. Bad chinese whispers translation slightly improved by me, from the German one:

Excellent move from the Russians. Kudos for bringing a bit of sanity. Thanks for the tip.

Here's a witness that was actually put on Al Jazeera, strangely, blaming the rebels too.
http://sonsofmalcolm.blogspot.com/2012/06/bro-ammar-waqqaf-sets-it-straight-on.html

FTR, here is a brief summary of what the crew, which is apparently only him and a woman named Olga Kulygina, put together from all their interviewed witnesses

Wait, Abkhazia has women now? This doesn't add up.

(sorry, not getting into that argument)

 

[Toontown]

[B
The question matters. Let's say intervention happens ala Libya, triggered by this plus the follow-on murders of random people at remote state-run factories (clearly done by the regime). Let's say Russia and China relent in the face of pressure, jets and drones, no soldiers, but lots of weapons and foreign volunteers funneled in, all kinds of sanctions and blockades, etc. Maybe without the air part, whatever. Regime overthrown after a six-month-to-three-year war. The opponents, whichever are most armed, are now in charge.

If the regime was behind the heinous crime, as the Anglo-American establishment is certain by design, we have saved a people from rule by such madmen. The cost might be pretty steep in numerous ways, but I'd say that's a good thing.

If not, then the regime opponents were behind it, to provoke said war, and get themselves in charge. We wouldhave handed Syria and its population over the false-flagging child-slashing terroristsof a pretty foul character. It could get quite ugly once they start their revenge purges, especially to punish harshly the regime "criminals" they blamed for Houla.

Then "we" would be obliged to employ all necessary means against the child-slashers in their turn. Overthrow them and arrange elections. If "we" start the job, then "we" should finish it.

"They" would probably step down voluntarily after being shown pictures of the hanged Saddam, his dead sons, the dead bin Laden, and the dead Khadaffi, and NATO tanks massing on their borders, accompanied by loud rock music with appropriate lyrics.

No use playing patty-cake. Better to stay on the porch than play patty-cake with them.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Its hardly war, its not as if there is likely to be much tactical or strategic innovation so I really don't see why you are taking an interest. I mean if you are really that into gore I understand a few videos came out of chechnya as well as various more recent stuff. For the more historicaly minded I sugest the blue book covering german east africa.

Am I supposed to be interested only in strategic innovative war stuff and gore? I'm interested in the truth of this attack and the justice of any response to it. And the witnesses are supposed to be the clearest evidence for the one view.

The Syrian government are fighting an anti insurgency war in the conventional manner without any of this western PR stuff. So yeah sometimes they shoot up a house full of people. Sometimes they grab people off the street and introduce them to the contents of the black & decker catalogue. If this in any way surprises you you probably haven't been paying much attention to the last few thousand years of warfare.

Okay, so says this kid and some other witnesses (but not all, and I don't have them catalogued or anything)

Here's an interesting source (also citing a girl survivor) saying the boy was the only survivor of two separate house massacres (what luck!), and gives details. This is your standard brutal regime no-PR method of warfare in 2012? I think it's a bit extreme.

Assad's spin machine is attempting to blame the Houla Massacre on the freedom-loving demonstrators, but eye witness acounts from children survivors of the Houla Massacre have surfaced
[...]
They enter the first home, where the little boy child witness lived, and asked his mother about three males. She said she had no idea where they were. They shot her and his sister. They proceeded to rampage through the home killing everyone in sight. They fired at the little boy and missed, he covered himself in blood and laid down and played dead. They raided the home stealing televisions and computers.

The boy eventually ran away to a relatives house, where the same military officers arrived and replayed the same scenario again. The boy ran off and escaped.

When the little boy was asked, who were these men, what were they wearing. He was confused as to why they were asking him these questions and said that he knows exactly who they were and described them very clearly with their facial hair and military uniforms. He said they arrived in tanks and personnel carriers and that they were the Syrian army and "Shabiha". The Shabiha are Assad's para-military shadow forces that run amuck and operate with complete impunity.

Actually it's not clear if he was confused, annoyed, or terrified what his handlers would do if the one key part of his story wasn't believed by Martin Chulov.

Throughout a 15-minute conversation, the boy remained calm and detached until he was pressed on how he knew the gunmen were pro-regime militia men, known as al-Shabiha. The irregular forces have been widely accused by residents of Houla of entering homes and slaughtering families. At least 32 of the dead are children and many of them appear to have been killed at close range.

"They got out of tanks and they had guns and knives," he repeated. "Some of them were wearing civilian clothes, some army clothes.

"Why are you asking me who they were? I know who they were. We all know it. They were the regime army and people who fight with them. That is true."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/28/houla-massacre-survivor-boy-syria

Back to the American Syrians piece:

In other homes, when they found the male they were looking for, they tied up all of the children, many of them under 10 months old, and forced their father to watch them brutally slaughter each one of them, one by one. Some children were shot in the head and had their brain blown out. Some had their heads bashed with hammers. Some had their throats slit and their eyes carved out of their sockets. The father was forced to watch. Over 50 children were massacred in this way with their parents forced to watch.

In other homes, the women were tied up and sodomized with weapons and various household objects, while the family was forced to watch. Then they were shot multiple times. Then finally, they would kill the males they were looking for.

The number of children is exaggerated, I think. Wasn't it more like 30? But the killing and torture details somehow ring true, whoever was really responsible.

We have to blame Assad these type of witnesses, plus the logic (good but not certain) that IF they did the shelling, they also did this. And the shelling evidence is not so strong. And the "who benefits" analysis is quite clear arguing against regime authorship.

Any rebuttals, especially on the witnesses?

 

[Childlike Empress]

Look I can forgive you for now following modern media trends but if you are going to forget the south ossetia war can I request that you never express an opinion of the topic of modern warfare ever again? Sure it was atypical in this era but that's what made it so special.

Still on the off-chance you spent 2008 in a coma or have some other valid excuse Abkhazia was create by Russia, is controlled by Russia and if there is money moving around there its a given that Moscow is involved somewhere.

Let's take a brief look, expert. 2008, the classic JREF thread "Russia invades Georgia":

Comes in yours truely, post #6:

Then why the misleading thread title? It should read "Georgia bombs South-Ossetia, Russia reacts".

Next post of mine, a RIA Novosti article detailing the facts that are now history.

Comes in geni, post #9 and #24:

Except russia is basicaly playing nato in this case. Problem is if we object to russia's actions beyond the carefuly worded appeals to calm on all side they will point to Kosovo.

Not really Georgia may not last long enough. This is turning into a real ground war fast.

Me: calmly observing and reporting the facts
You: anti-russian sentiments make you believe Sackarschwilli's nonsensical utterances parroted by the western media and fantasize worst-case scenarios

</derail>

You are consuming far too much war porn. That makes you forget that there is no war in Syria, but regionally limited uprisings and "rebel" nests and terror attacks. In most of the country life goes on and if one knows the region, one can travel. These people are not the only ones. And as to "modern media trends" ... yesterday I watched a HD livestream together with 2000 people from a guy with a cellphone and a mid-price camera. I reported.

Not to forget that you seem to think I wouldn't know that taking a route from Abkhazia to the north into Russian territory and then a bit east to continue south through Aserbaidjan, avoiding Georgia therefore, would make the trip maybe 250 km longer...

 

[Toontown]

We have to blame Assad these type of witnesses, plus the logic (good but not certain) that IF they did the shelling, they also did this. And the shelling evidence is not so strong. And the "who benefits" analysis is quite clear arguing against regime authorship.
Any rebuttals, especially on the witnesses?

That isn't at all clear. The regime is about as popular as a dog turd. How does the regime stay in power, if not by crushing it's enemies and striking terror into the hearts of everyone?

It worked for Saddam for 30 years. Worked for Stalin until he died in bed.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Any rebuttals, especially on the witnesses?

The Guardian (same author) has another witness, an alleged defected Army officer. While the boy says they arrived in tanks and military vehicles, the officer says they arrived "in cars and army trucks and on motorbikes". No tanks.

He describes them: "A lot of them were bald and many had beards" Not something one would expect from Alawites, but certainly from Wahhabis.

edit: Martin Chulov seems to write all the numerous articles for the Guardian about this. I see he reports from Beirut. That means all those witnesses communicate per video and phone with him? Or is anybody on the ground interviewing them? Or where does he get those statements from?

 

[Virus]

He describes them: "A lot of them were bald and many had beards" Not something one would expect from Alawites, but certainly from Wahhabis.

Or Hezbollah.

 

[geni]

Let's take a brief look, expert. 2008, the classic JREF thread "Russia invades Georgia":

Comes in yours truely, post #6:

Next post of mine, a RIA Novosti article detailing the facts that are now history.

Comes in geni, post #9 and #24:




Me: calmly observing and reporting the facts
You: anti-russian sentiments make you believe Sackarschwilli's nonsensical utterances parroted by the western media and fantasize worst-case scenarios

</derail>

That an impressive misstatement of my position.

You are consuming far too much war porn. That makes you forget that there is no war in Syria, but regionally limited uprisings and "rebel" nests and terror attacks.

Yes I understand that there is technically no clear line between law enforcement and putting down a rebellion but even Mexico which is at the upper of of what technically isn't a war isn't using heavy artillery.

In most of the country life goes on and if one knows the region, one can travel. These people are not the only ones. And as to "modern media trends" ... yesterday I watched a HD livestream together with 2000 people from a guy with a cellphone and a mid-price camera. I reported.

Which is great for the war porn market but has nothing do to with reporting.

Not to forget that you seem to think I wouldn't know that taking a route from Abkhazia to the north into Russian territory and then a bit east to continue south through Aserbaidjan, avoiding Georgia therefore, would make the trip maybe 250 km longer...

What would you say the odds are of Azerbaijan accepting an Abkhazian passport? And please take into account the issue that the Nagorno-Karabakh thing isn't settled yet.

The reality is that if some reporters from Abkhazia got into syria then:

1)Realisticaly they traveled as Russians.
2)Realisticaly they have a non news company funding source
3)Realisticaly that money was russian.

Local funding doesn't work since there isn't enough of it and russia would react poorly to anyone else acting on their turf.


Now I have no particular objection to that. Russia has as much right as anyone to lie about war and if anything I welcome their increasing professionalism in the area. The laundering through Abkhazia is odd though.

 

[angrysoba]

What would you say the odds are of Azerbaijan accepting an Abkhazian passport? And please take into account the issue that the Nagorno-Karabakh thing isn't settled yet.

The reality is that if some reporters from Abkhazia got into syria then:

1)Realisticaly they traveled as Russians.
2)Realisticaly they have a non news company funding source
3)Realisticaly that money was russian.

Local funding doesn't work since there isn't enough of it and russia would react poorly to anyone else acting on their turf.


Now I have no particular objection to that. Russia has as much right as anyone to lie about war and if anything I welcome their increasing professionalism in the area. The laundering through Abkhazia is odd though.

I think it is likely that Abkhazians will travel on Russian passports. This in itself would probably not be unusual.

I am not sure why Azerbaijian would refuse to accept Abkhazian citizens though.

But anyway, this seems like a bit of a tangent.

 

[Childlike Empress]

But anyway, this seems like a bit of a tangent.

It's anyway only based on geni's strange assumption that Abkhazians don't have money to travel. There's a nice international airport just around the corner in Sochi, or you could take the ship through the Bosphorus, but who could afford THAT?

I'd be more interested in knowing how Martin Chulov gets the statements of his witnesses.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Which is great for the war porn market but has nothing do to with reporting.

I'm mildly curious why you keep mentioning war porn here.

The reality is that if some reporters from Abkhazia got into syria then:

1)Realisticaly they traveled as Russians.
2)Realisticaly they have a non news company funding source
3)Realisticaly that money was russian.

Local funding doesn't work since there isn't enough of it and russia would react poorly to anyone else acting on their turf.

That makes a certain sense. They call themselves Akhazian, a descriptor. Do we know they claimed to have travelled on Abkhazian passports? Or what exactly is the point? Aside from using the suggested Russian ID and/or funding to cast doubt like so:

Now I have no particular objection to that. Russia has as much right as anyone to lie about war and if anything I welcome their increasing professionalism in the area. The laundering through Abkhazia is odd though.

Implication is this possibly Russian-sponsored journalism is essentially a lie.

Evidence?
(rhetorical question, really - I'd rather drop line this as soon as we can all agree to)

... this seems like a bit of a tangent

Agreed. Hopefully your keen sense of the geometry of things can help us decide to move this thread along.

C.E. is on topic and presented some things I meant to look at by now, but pressing developments and such... I'll be back on it soon.

 

[Caustic Logic]

That isn't at all clear. The regime is about as popular as a dog turd. How does the regime stay in power, if not by crushing it's enemies and striking terror into the hearts of everyone?

It worked for Saddam for 30 years. Worked for Stalin until he died in bed.

To believe the opposition activists, and the media who's infatuated with them and calls them the "people of Syria." Sure, they're some of them, but how many really?

I don't know how widely-supported turds are in Syria, so I can't assess your camparison.

Just a few examples of how many were willing to flip-off the West and show their support:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRrqef0zYaI
http://www.aztagenglish.com/a-pro-assad-rally-in-aleppo/
http://realisticbird.wordpress.com/2011/10/19/syrians-rally-in-support-of-assad/
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Mi...-in-syrian-protests-huge-pro-assad-rally.ashx

All of these people, possible targets of retaliation after a rebel victory. The opposition said they represent all Syrians. These many many Syrians embarrassed them in front of their foreign benefactors by refuting it.

As far as how you "maintain" control of the rebel-held area per the cease-fire terms (by the way, rebel security failed there). As I've explained, and will once more but better, they certainly would not have done well to do what happened in Taldou and that other village. If they had, the investigations would have no choice but to uncover the reliable evidence proving it, and even the Russians would be hard-pressed to support that. Kofi Annan might have known it in his gut enough to call off the peace plan right there, instead of saying half-things to stall for clarity like others have done.

As it is, investigators will have to be really selective to blame Assad, and I don't know what this UN team is all about, so we'll see.

The Russians wouldn't likely be changing their tune from "both to blame" to "support for the opposition to blame" unless they had reason to believe the world at large will be forced to acknowledge this as a rebel massacre. Or at least (more likely) as too murky to call, left hanging, used vaguely to support deadly and prolonged half-measures of attrition, etc.

But this remaining pinned clearly on Assad and his people, unlikely. It was too far a reach, I'm happy to report that I now suspect. There will also be some delightfully awkward moments.

If it had been the regime, the evidence would be there, and they would be all-but proven to have been that monumentally stupid/insane plus evil. Their own people really would rebel en masse, UNSC approval for bombing, done on the cheap, over in a year. But just watch - that won't be happening.