Hillary Campaign Deathwatch

[skeptical]

Dr A, consider the following thought:

The brain trust, the back room warriors, within the neocon movement have switched their upport to Obama, and will try to package their aims and goals as a form of moderate liberalism.

They didin't like McCain in 2000, and don't like him now.

Not saying it's for sure, but it's not too large a stretch.

DR

Actually, I think those you mentioned are salivating over an Obama win in the primaries. The playbook of attack is already well formed. The slime will go like this 1) He's a Muslim pretending to be a Christian 2) Even if he is a Christian, his church is black separatist 3) He's unpatriotic.

Look at those issues, and think of how they will play with "red state" voters. It hits them in all the right wedge issue places. The only thing that could be better for Republicans would be if he were gay, but that is more than enough mud to fling, and it will be flying hard and fast.

The swift boat campaign will look like a ringing endorsement compared to what we are about to see for Obama.

I like Obama more than Hillary, but the truth is that the people that hate Hillary already hate her. She is a known quantity and it is hard to see a lot of slime making much of a difference in her base. Obama is doing well in demographics that already don't like Hillary, but that support will start eroding quickly once the general election begins if he is the nominee.

They may not like McCain, but they will be on "seek and destroy" for Obama.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Anyway, will she go quietly or tear the house down?

Not going quietly, not that one.

However, if she loses the nom, she'll grit her teeth and do what it takes to fight her main enemy, the GOP and that "vast right wing conspiracy" phantasm she's been battling for forty years.

Cabinet post for Hilly? She isn't in this for fun and games, she's in it to retain power, or get more power, and thus influence and relevance, through whatever path presents itself.

Bet yer arse, if Obama wins, she's a siginficant cabinet officer,

or,

goes back to the Senate and gets very energetic.

DR

 

[Dr Adequate]

Irving Kristol, in an overquoted remark on the neoconservative movement:

"A liberal mugged by reality."

This explains why neoconservatives behave as though they are mildly concussed and have a deep grudge against reality.

So, based on the tactics I have seen over the past four months, I am trying to do some out of the box thinking.

Well, while in general I approve of thinking outside the box, on this occasion I should recommend you to stay inside the box. The box is good. Learn to love the box.

I mean, really. The popularity of Barack Obama is not the result of a secret neoconservative conspiracy against John McCain. It just isn't. Sheesh.

 

[Darth Rotor]

They may not like McCain, but they will be on "seek and destroy" for Obama.

I get that, it's one of the plays to be made. Here's why that might not work.

GOP fatigue.

The 2006 elections were a marker. A sea change.

GOP fatigue also hit GHW Bush in 1992. That's how the rube from Arkansas got his foot in the door.

See also slime fatigue.

The "He's a Muslim" slime is so easily trashed that its a tactic guaranteed to backfire, as a number of Hillary's cheap shots have backfired on her.

DR

 

[SezMe]

The only evidence I have is that Neo Con radio shills like Hannity are going out of their way to point out any and every foible in Hillary's campaign, and did the same versus McCain over the past two months, before Romney dropped out. This tells me that the original definition of a neoconservative is being reasserted. (Yes, Dr A, I am guessing)

I put that up to being unable to turn off the visceral hate for Clinton's by the likes of Hannity. The Rs complain about Bush Derangement Syndrome but it pales compared to the hatred on the right for Clinton. Five years of endless, relentless, $50 mil investigation to get him on a BJ? That's gut level hatred. I just don't think idealogues like Hannity can turn that off.

Bet yer arse, if Obama wins, she's a siginficant cabinet officer,

or,

goes back to the Senate and gets very energetic.

The latter for sure. As a cabinet officer, she'll forever be playing second fiddle to the guy who dumped her inevitability cart. In the Senate, she can still be her own woman and can wield significant power well beyond her status as a second term Senator.

I haven't had this much fun since the hogs ate my brother.

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

I just heard about Bill Clinton saying something like "If you vote for me..."

I can't wait to see if Hillary will try to be polite in tonight's debate (I'll be missing most of it, so I will rely on teh internets).

 

[skeptical]

The "He's a Muslim" slime is so easily trashed that its a tactic guaranteed to backfire, as a number of Hillary's cheap shots have backfired on her.

DR

I hope your right. However, living in a red state, I get a lot of chain emails forwarded from people who I would think would know how ridiculous some of the slime is, but swallow it hook line and sinker. Sad but true.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Well, while in general I approve of thinking outside the box, on this occasion I should recommend you to stay inside the box. The box is good. Learn to love the box.

No.

I mean, really. The popularity of Barack Obama is not the result of a secret neoconservative conspiracy against John McCain. It just isn't. Sheesh.

His popularity is one facet of this race, and it's one of his main assets. However, the back room deal making that creates a support base for a candidate is not a function of his or her qualities, but of the connected folks who get together, find common cause, and pull in larger networks of folks to fund, support, and influence the process. I admit to being rather in the dark as to who all are behind Obama, aside from the obvious public announcements of folks like Gore, T Kennedy, or David Geffen. There is an entire class of operators, in Washington and other major cities, whose aim is to guage the trends and hitch their wagons to a rising star.

Sussing out who they are is probably too big a job for one person, but getting a handle on who these folks are, in terms of who is leaning with Obama's momentum, informs what and how the platform and policy direction gets headed.

Likewise, who starts lining up behind McCain, and why, beyond the usual suspects who, as Sez points out, have been on the Hate Clinton bandwagon for some time.

Who is going to write the appeal to the swing voters, and what will be the package?

I can count on the Ditto Heads to have some canned "anyone who is a Dem is x, y, or z in flavors of bad." The play that interests me are the yet to be presented influence blocs.

With the Health Care bogeyman looming large, I am not convinced the swing voters won't be finding more appeal in the nanny state, so the smart money, among the back room crowd, is to hitchhike on the bus going that way.

Still trying to solidify my grasp of the insider motives. I am not content that what is being spit out in the MSM represents what is really driving either party's campaign. All the cards have not been played, not in this game.

DR

 

[SezMe]

Regards the thread title, "Hillary Campaign Deathwatch" I think the debate tonight brought us a bit closer to writing the obituary. She did not do a whole lot wrong, but there were no knockdowns or even a few solid blows that landed. But given that the poll trends do not favor her, those are exactly what she needed.

Obama was off his game too. As front-runner, I thought he missed some good openings to start turning the fight to McCain. They're both tired and a bit hoarse and it showed tonight.

The big loser in my eyes was Russert. His game of "gotcha quotes" gives me a royal pain in the patootie. In addition, I'm glad Hillary called him on his hypotheticals.

All-in-all, score it a tie...which means score it a loss for Hillary.

 

[timhau]

Granted all I got was the five second sound clip version, but my impression wasn't that she was trying to be funny so much as she was trying to be sarcastic and mocking.

That whole line of argumentation is a straw man, anyway. She was rightly booed, imho.

All I've seen is clips of it as well. However, sarcasm is related to humor, and this touches on something I've been thinking about occasionally (and not just in the connection of Hillary). The fact is, I could see a performer like Bill getting laughs instead of boos with that "change you can Xerox" bit. Some people can do it, some people can't. I don't know what the difference is (no, it's not because Hillary is a woman and Bill is a man; some women could do it too, and the vast majority of men couldn't); I suppose it's got to do with timing, assessing the mood of the crowd, softening the blow with hedge words or something non-verbal if necessary (note that Hillary does nothing of the kind in that clip, even though it seemed like the audience had warmed up to Obama), and FSM knows what else.

 

[Tricky]

I can't find the column, but one pundit was saying essentially that Hillary must not only win Texas and Ohio, but must win big (by 20% or so) to have a chance to catch up in delegates. I think that's probably close to accurate. Even if she does win, which is quite iffy in Texas with all of the anti-Clinton crossover votes to be cast by Republicans, it will certainly be a squeaker. She might want to fold her tents and save some money for her next Senate campaign. Or 2012. Or 2016.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

She'll run again. She isn't giving up that easy.

Plus she'll be able to be tourettes about 'Fighting these people for 42 years' rather than '35'.

Even if he isn't a terrific president, I think a signifigant proportion of this planet owes Obama an enormous debt of gratitude for what he has removed from this world.

Quick question: If McCain or Obama lose in November, do they have to give up their senate seat, or do people vote them in anyway?

 

[NotJesus]

Quick question: If McCain or Obama lose in November, do they have to give up their senate seat, or do people vote them in anyway?

Neither one is up for re-election to the Senate in 2008, so the loser would simply go back to the senate. The seat of the winner would have to be filled in a new election.

 

[dudalb]

The Fat Lady Might Not Have Sung,But She Is Tuning Up.

 

[Nim Chimpsky]

I don't think it THAT much of a tie. Seemed to lean a bit toward Obama.

Hillary seemed whiny, vindictive and smelled of desperation.

Obama just seemed flat. On point, on message, but no wow factor.


That SNL quote sent her down a few notches as well. Did yinz hear the crowd reaction? Cripes, 2 people giggled, 15 groaned and then 50 people bent over to whisper what the hell she meant to 50 other people. That comment smacked of a desperate person who is truly angry at that skit and TRIED to make it funny.

2 weeks and it's ovah!

 

[Darth Rotor]

With Friends like these, McCain needs no enemies

SAN ANTONIO —==snip==
Rev. John C. Hagee, endorsed Mr. McCain for president.

Mr. Hagee, who argues that the United States must join Israel in a preemptive, biblically prophesized military strike against Iran that will lead to the second coming of Christ, praised Mr. McCain for his pro-Israel views.

“John McCain has publicly stated his support of the state of Israel, pledging that his administration will not permit Iran to have nuclear weapons to fulfill the evil dreams of President Ahmadinejad to wipe Israel off the map,'’ Mr. Hagee said at a news conference at the Omni
Hotel in San Antonio.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/27/mega-church-pastor-in-texas-backs-mccain/

The continued assertion, the corrupt meme, that Israel's problems are by definition America's problems is myopic, bass ackwards politics, and for my money, a load of rot.

Once the Berlin Wall fell, Israel's utility as a Western client in the Levant, and the Mid East, retracted somewhat while Turkey's increased, as did other nations in the PG region. Play is continuous, nothing is fixed. Nations have interests, not friends, and sometimes allies.

While Hagee is an extreme case of this PoV, linking it all to Biblical prophesy and what not, there is a core strain in some corners of the American policy establishment that is myopically rearward looking, as though Israel is still the American test ground for Cold War weapons clashes, per 1967-1982 was. Sorry, folks, it's a generation later, and that role is no longer valid.

When President Bush originally proposed his "road map for peace" in the Middle East, early in his tenure, I had hopes for a more progressive and practically minded American policy, centered first on American interests and elastic enough in application that some progress would be made, some win win transactions.

Hopes dashed.

McCain would be ill advised to lean apocalypticly based Mid East policy. I doubt he'll reject the endorsement, he needs the Evangelical vote too badly.

The only special relationship the US has that I have any reverence for is the special relationship Churchill observed that the US and Great Britain/UK, share.

The rest simply aren't special enough, though I'll grant Canada first chair among the rest.

Hagee, if I may be so crass, ought to STFU.

In his partial defense, this Protestant Evangelical baseline related to the Protestant Evangelical sentiment harnessed in the late 19th century as a foundation of the British Empire's moves that resulted in the founding of Israel, first as a proxy, then as its own nation. (Tuchman, Bible and Sword as a decent reference.)

Get over it, Hagee, Israel is founded. The symbolic restoration of Israel and Jerusalem has arrived. Like the prophesized Messiah, Jesus, the fulfillment didn't quite take the form the prophesy lead many to expect. It was different.

Deal with it.

More realistic politics, less symbolism, if you please.

Yes, I know, a vain hope.

DR

 

[rdaneel]

Um, DR, did you perhaps mean for this to go in another thread? If not, then it's it's a MASSIVE derail.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

I think it was meant to, given he has a title embedded before the main text.

But as much as this is abhorrent, I've got to say I'd enjoy watching this war. War is awesome. Neeooow, Booom, Kablam!

 

[Puppycow]

But as much as this is abhorrent, I've got to say I'd enjoy watching this war. War is awesome. Neeooow, Booom, Kablam!

Raises eyebrows. Maybe war movies, m'kay? The actual thing however is pretty sickening.

 

[Puppycow]

Back to the topic at hand: There's already a battle of public recriminations going on.
Two recent stories in The New York Observer:
Micro Mark is an interview with Mark Penn, Hillary's chief strategist. It comes with the following lovely cartoon.

Penn is quick to blame others in Hillary's campaign for recent setbacks:

As [Penn] put it, his strategy had succeeded in the “biggest message-oriented states.”

And, by implication, the political ground and money game, run by former campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, her deputy Mike Henry and longtime Clinton loyalist and Penn foe Harold Ickes, ruined it for Mrs. Clinton in “organization-driven” states, where she suffered defeats in “a series of caucuses that generated tremendous momentum for Obama.”

Now Ickes fires back in a separate interview:

“Mark Penn has run this campaign,” said Ickes in a brief phone interview this morning. “Besides Hillary Clinton, he is the single most responsible person for this campaign.

“Now, he has been circumscribed to some extent by Maggie Williams,” said Ickes, who then pointed out that that was only a recent development.

When asked about the assertion by one senior Clinton official the campaign was effectively run by committee, diluting Penn’s authority, Ickes was incredulous.

“I don’t know what campaign you’re talking about,” said Ickes. “I have been at meetings where he introduces himself as the campaign’s chief strategist. I’ve heard him call himself that many times, say, ‘I am the chief strategist.’”

Asked if Penn preferred the title of chief strategist to pollster, Ickes said, “Prefer it? He insists on it!”

When asked if Penn was therefore responsible for the campaign’s strategy, Ickes said, “It’s pretty plain for anyone to see that he has shaped the strategy of the campaign. He has called the shots.”

“Mark Penn,” he said, “has dominated the message in this campaign. Dominated it.”

All this public feuding is going on as the campaign is trying to get its act together for the upcoming primaries.