Herman Cain leads by 20 points!

Ladewig said:
You are making a common mistake. You are more knowledgeable about the candidates and their positions than the vast majority of registered voters. There are a lot of people who don't know jack about the candidates and perhaps they once heard Representative Bachman say something they agree with so then they tell pollsters that they would vote for her.

Also some are single-issue voters. For them, there is one concern that overrides all other considerations when choosing a candidate. For instance, there might be folks who say homosexuality is the biggest threat to America today therefore we must vote for Representative Bachman because she is the only one who understands how dangerous homosexuals are.

Lastly, do not forget the for many Americans the most honest answer to " from where do you get your news" is nowhere. There are people who don't read newspapers, magazines, or blogs. They don't listen to radio or television news at all. Their perceptions of the candidates are based on third- and fourth-hand stories or are based on snippets of conversations overheard in the break room at work. There are Americans whose entire understanding of how the government works is based completely on forwarded e-mails.
Click to expand...

This. Especially the last bit.

Some things I've learned from these people:

1) Obama is going to take all our guns. Just like Clinton did.
2) Illegal immigrants get a government check for $30,000 to open a business. Or something.
3) An old lady in New York (or somewhere) was arrested as a terrorist because she bought 2 guns for home protection within a 30 day period (I just heard this one 3 weeks ago).
 
Last edited:
It's still changing:

Gingrich 33.2%
Romney 22.7
Paul 10.0
Bachmann 7.5
Perry 6.8
Santorum 3.5
Huntsman 3.2
undecided 13.1

Paul could climb up to be a third major contender. Bachmann seems to be gaining at the expense of Perry (not surprising). It's conceivable she could eventually also absorb Santorum's votes (or even absorb santorum), putting her on the same level as Paul. I'm of two minds about this. One one hand, I think it's great that the GOP promote unelectable whack-jobs like Bachmann. On the other, I'm appalled that she could get such support.
 
TimCallahan said:
It's still changing:

Gingrich 33.2%
Romney 22.7
Paul 10.0
Bachmann 7.5
Perry 6.8
Santorum 3.5
Huntsman 3.2
undecided 13.1

Paul could climb up to be a third major contender. Bachmann seems to be gaining at the expense of Perry (not surprising). It's conceivable she could eventually also absorb Santorum's votes (or even absorb santorum), putting her on the same level as Paul. I'm of two minds about this. One one hand, I think it's great that the GOP promote unelectable whack-jobs like Bachmann. On the other, I'm appalled that she could get such support.
Click to expand...

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials...us-presidential-election/republican-candidate

The bookmakers have gone back to giving Mr. Romney a slight preference over Mr. Gingrich.

The rest of the pack falls out as
R. Paul 8:1 to 11:1
J. Huntsman 14:1 to 16:1
R. Perry 22:1 to 33:1
R. Santorum 28:1 to 50:1
M. Bachmann 33:1 to 60:1
 
Ladewig said:
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials...us-presidential-election/republican-candidate

The bookmakers have gone back to giving Mr. Romney a slight preference over Mr. Gingrich.

The rest of the pack falls out as
R. Paul 8:1 to 11:1
J. Huntsman 14:1 to 16:1
R. Perry 22:1 to 33:1
R. Santorum 28:1 to 50:1
M. Bachmann 33:1 to 60:1
Click to expand...

I'm amused about how Huntsman is in the odds, even though his current polling numbers are much lower than Perry's or Bachmann's. Is this just because there's always a chance that the electorate could wake up one day and notice how sane and reasonable he is? That would give him a big boost.
 
Newtons Bit said:
I'm amused about how Huntsman is in the odds, even though his current polling numbers are much lower than Perry's or Bachmann's. Is this just because there's always a chance that the electorate could wake up one day and notice how sane and reasonable he is? That would give him a big boost.
Click to expand...

I can't link there at work, so not sure, but are the odds meant to represent just the primaries or the whole election?

If the latter, this makes sense in that Bachmann and Perry are more likely to win the Republican nomination, but don't stand a chance in the general election. Whereas Huntsman, although trailing in the primaries would be a much stronger candidate against Obama in the general election.
 
Newtons Bit said:
I'm amused about how Huntsman is in the odds, even though his current polling numbers are much lower than Perry's or Bachmann's. Is this just because there's always a chance that the electorate could wake up one day and notice how sane and reasonable he is? That would give him a big boost.
Click to expand...

Those are primary odds.

For the presidency-

B. Obama is the favorite
Mitt Romney 3ish:1
Newt Gingrich 4ish:1
Ron Paul 16ish:1
J. Huntsman 28ish:1
Hillary Clinton at 40ish:1
Rick Perry 50ish:1
M. Bachmann 80ish:1
.
.
.
Jeb Bush 300:1
.
.
and if you are a long shot player, you can have Condi Rice, David Petraus, Mike Huckabee, or even Rand Paul (and a host of others) at 950:1
 
Last edited:
Newtons Bit said:
I'm amused about how Huntsman is in the odds, even though his current polling numbers are much lower than Perry's or Bachmann's. Is this just because there's always a chance that the electorate could wake up one day and notice how sane and reasonable he is?
Click to expand...

Some people think that the people really decide who will get the GOP nomination. Popularity has far more weight in the Democratic Party. The GOP is more money driven, and the money is behind Newt since Cain fizzled.

Next behind the money men are the crazies. Rational pragmatists just don't have the pull with the party apparatus, but that does not keep them from plugging for their man.
 
some changes in the polls over the weekend:

Previous -- as of Saturday night

Gingrich 33.2% -- 32.4%
Romney 22.7 -- 22.6
Paul 10.0 -- 9.6
Bachmann 7.5 -- 8.2
Perry 6.8 -- 6.8
Santorum 3.5 -- 3.4
Huntsman 3.2 -- 3.4
undecided 13.1 -- 14.0

All the top three showed some softening. Perry stayed the same. Santorum and Huntsman are battling for last place. Appallingly, Michele Bachmann continues to climb.
 
I do prefer the oddsmakers (who still favor M. Romney for the nomination but not the presidency) but I will admit that it is not an exact science. If you want to place a bet that Herman Cain will win the presidency, you can find odds ranging from 20:1 up to 569:1.
 
Last edited:
My usual source shows dramatic changes in he polls even since yesterday. Gingrich is definitely fading; Romney's rebounding, as is Paul; and Bachmann (alarmingly) continues to climb. What strakes me as particularly bizarre is that Perry has actually come up significantly in the polls. have people forgotten his drunken speech?

Previous -- as of Saturday night -- as of today

Gingrich 33.2% -- 32.4% -- 28.4%
Romney 22.7 -- 22.6 -- 24.3
Paul 10.0 -- 9.6 -- 11.5
Bachmann 7.5 -- 8.2 -- 8.5
Perry 6.8 -- 6.8 --8.0
Santorum 3.5 -- 3.4 -- 3.8
Huntsman 3.2 -- 3.4 -- 2.8
undecided 13.1 -- 14.0 -- 12.7
 
TimCallahan said:
My usual source shows dramatic changes in he polls even since yesterday. Gingrich is definitely fading; Romney's rebounding, as is Paul; and Bachmann (alarmingly) continues to climb. What strakes me as particularly bizarre is that Perry has actually come up significantly in the polls. have people forgotten his drunken speech?

Previous -- as of Saturday night -- as of today

Gingrich 33.2% -- 32.4% -- 28.4%
Romney 22.7 -- 22.6 -- 24.3
Paul 10.0 -- 9.6 -- 11.5
Bachmann 7.5 -- 8.2 -- 8.5
Perry 6.8 -- 6.8 --8.0
Santorum 3.5 -- 3.4 -- 3.8
Huntsman 3.2 -- 3.4 -- 2.8
undecided 13.1 -- 14.0 -- 12.7
Click to expand...

My usual source still shows Romney ahead of Gingrich and even has the gap widening.
R. Paul is climbing up to 7.5 to 1.
 
I'll predict that all these polls will change after a few primaries. I see Paul taking the Iowa Caucus, and Romney winning the New Hampshire primary. Whether or not Newt will plummet like Perry did is hard to say. It could be that, going into the Republican convention we'll see a three-way battle between Romney, Pal and Gingrich.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom