Herman Cain leads by 20 points!

I wonder if the overall level of "rancor" as it were stays relatively the same trended across decades, but there is a different phenomenon in force: the longer one pays attention to politics, the more disgusted one gets. This creates an illusion of change over time.
 
Going to my usual source, I see that Newt has slipped somewhat, Romney is still holding on, and that Ron Paul may be in position to take the #3 spot, once Cain's votes are assigned to someone else. Unfortunately, Bachmann has risen somehwhat in the polls:

Gingrich 32.8%
Romney 20.8
Cain 12.5
Paul 9.3
Perry 7.3
Bachmann 5.0
Santorum 3.8
Huntsman 2.5
Undecided 6.0

Of course, all this will likely change dramatically after the Iowa caucus on January 3, 2012.
 
TimCallahan said:
Going to my usual source, I see that Newt has slipped somewhat, Romney is still holding on, and that Ron Paul may be in position to take the #3 spot, once Cain's votes are assigned to someone else. Unfortunately, Bachmann has risen somehwhat in the polls:

Gingrich 32.8%
Romney 20.8
Cain 12.5
Paul 9.3
Perry 7.3
Bachmann 5.0
Santorum 3.8
Huntsman 2.5
Undecided 6.0

Of course, all this will likely change dramatically after the Iowa caucus on January 3, 2012.
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The bookmakers have all switched over and are now listing Mr. Gingrich as the primary winner. The odds on Mr. Romney put him in a close second and Mr. Paul rounds out the field at 12:1.

As for the final race, they all favor President Obama. Governor Perry's odds are tied with those of Secretary Clinton at 50:1.


ETA: while Mr. Cain might look good in some polls, the bookies place him around 500:1 just for the nomination.
 
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TimCallahan said:
Going to my usual source, I see that Newt has slipped somewhat, Romney is still holding on, and that Ron Paul may be in position to take the #3 spot, once Cain's votes are assigned to someone else. Unfortunately, Bachmann has risen somehwhat in the polls:

Gingrich 32.8%
Romney 20.8
Cain 12.5
Paul 9.3
Perry 7.3
Bachmann 5.0
Santorum 3.8
Huntsman 2.5
Undecided 6.0

Of course, all this will likely change dramatically after the Iowa caucus on January 3, 2012.
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I predict Ron Paul will come in first or second in Iowa and will be the big media story to come out of that state.
 
Ladewig said:
The bookmakers have all switched over and are now listing Mr. Gingrich as the primary winner. The odds on Mr. Romney put him in a close second and Mr. Paul rounds out the field at 12:1.

As for the final race, they all favor President Obama. Governor Perry's odds are tied with those of Secretary Clinton at 50:1.

ETA: while Mr. Cain might look good in some polls, the bookies place him around 500:1 just for the nomination.
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Yup, President Obama is up in the prediction markets by a significant amount. Over at the Iowa Electronic Markets...

DEM12-WTA 55.2%
REP12-WTA 44.1%

That's better than he did on Election Day 2008. Thanks, Newt! :)
 
December 3rd:
TheL8Elvis said:
I'm almost a little sad the OP isn't able to comment on this right now. Almost.
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November 14th:
JudeBrando said:
Cain is already successfully tarnished now. Plus, a greater and continued spotlight now has exposed his shallowness also... I think he's done while it may take a few weeks more yet to become obvious.. even to him.
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Ladewig said:
I may have missed it. Has the OPer commented on Mr. Cain's immoral and unchristian-like behavior?
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Checking again at my usual source, I find that things have changed considerably yet again. Now Cain isn't even listed among the contenders. Gingrich seems to have regained his edge, and Paul continues to move up, albeit slowly. What I find rather appalling is that Bachman, who is now ahead of the sinking Perry, has actually gained significantly. Who would vote for this nut-case?:

Gingrich 33.5%
Romney 22.3
Paul 9.7
Bachmann 7.3
Perry 7.2
Santorum 3.5
Huntsman 3.2
undecided (by implication)* 13.3

* A sizable portion of this may be those polled who formerly supported Cain.
 
TimCallahan said:
. Who would vote for this nut-case?:
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You are making a common mistake. You are more knowledgeable about the candidates and their positions than the vast majority of registered voters. There are a lot of people who don't know jack about the candidates and perhaps they once heard Representative Bachman say something they agree with so then they tell pollsters that they would vote for her.

Also some are single-issue voters. For them, there is one concern that overrides all other considerations when choosing a candidate. For instance, there might be folks who say homosexuality is the biggest threat to America today therefore we must vote for Representative Bachman because she is the only one who understands how dangerous homosexuals are.

Lastly, do not forget the for many Americans the most honest answer to " from where do you get your news" is nowhere. There are people who don't read newspapers, magazines, or blogs. They don't listen to radio or television news at all. Their perceptions of the candidates are based on third- and fourth-hand stories or are based on snippets of conversations overheard in the break room at work. There are Americans whose entire understanding of how the government works is based completely on forwarded e-mails.
 
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