angrysoba
Philosophile
Indeed. This is why they will oust him one way or another.
Has Boris gone yet?
- Thread starter commandlinegamer
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Indeed. This is why they will oust him one way or another.
They must, and they know it. If he's still there at the next General Election the Tories are cannon fodder. Whether Johnson's ego can recognise this is another matter.
Lothian
should be banned
It will be interesting (i.e. cringeworthy) to see what spin his supporters put on this. I predict Shapps will make us all want to vomitDorries too.
The spin appears to be his popularity has soared since the last time he stood for election.
In the leadership contest he got
51.1% of the vote
Hunt 24.6%
Gove 24%
Percentages from here before you complain.
So yes his vote went up in a two choice vote from what he got when there were three choices.
They obviously had a load of lines to take from the 'Highest Percentage ever' in a confidence contest through "more than Major, Thatcher or May". All binned until there was just 1 left on the table "Better than 51.1%"
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dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
It is not at all like an Impeahcment. An impeachment is formal legal proceeding, a no confidence vote is a simple poll.
Also an impeachment charge must be you did something illegal and wrong, a no confidence vote can be for a much broader range of things including just plain incompetence.
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Lothian
should be banned
Incompetence doesn't get a no confidence vote, otherwise he would have had one the day he started. The vote happens when enough MPs think they will lose their seat in the next election.
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catsmate
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Moggie is back-peddling frantically from his comments on May.It will be interesting (i.e. cringeworthy) to see what spin his supporters put on this. I predict Shapps will make us all want to vomit
catsmate
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Then, obviously, he should call a leadership election to firm up his support...
catsmate
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The Conservative party vote of (no) confidence has no connection to a Parliamentary vote of (no) confidence; failure to survive the latter triggers a General Election, or at least an attempt to cobble together an alternate government (which never works).
angrysoba
Philosophile
Theoretically if two fifths of the Tory party has no confidence in the Government and presumably neither do the other parties, should it not be possible for a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons? Of course the Tories won’t want to do it because they would likely lost their own seats but maybe they could play some brinkmanship with Johnson?
There would have to be rather a lot of defections for such a vote to succeed. I would have thought the concerns for their seats would have been budgeted in to the confidence vote that just happened. The vote certainly took place knowing it would fail. There would be a huge political cost for the minority of a party to work with the opposition to bring down their own government. The last time a UK government lost such a vote was in 1979, and then by a single vote. Prior to that it was 1924. I don't think this is a serious risk.
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Cosmic Yak
Philosopher
The Lib-Dems say they might do this. Labour 'is considering its options', whatever the heck that means.
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
The Tories should replace Boris with Urquhart. Make the office of the Prime Minister respectable again. A steady hand for turbulent times.
Presumably it means they are considering what their options are.
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
If new elections were to be called, would Labour be likely to win?
The polls seem to indicate that they would, but I don't know how reliable they are or how fickle voters might be.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
But Labour cannot force new elections unless a substantial number of Tories defect. And there seems to be little benefit in calling a vote unless they can hope to win it.
In the UK, rather like in the US, voters seem to prefer Labour Party policies and now even think that Labour Party politicians may be more trustworthy (or perhaps less untrustworthy) but a significant number still vote Tory when actually at the ballot box.
Given that Labour won't get any seats in Scotland, they'll need to win England which is a huuuuuuuuuuge electoral mountain to climb. IMO they'd need a 10+ point lead in the polls to stand any chance whatsoever.
Cosmic Yak
Philosopher
In the UK, rather like in the US, voters seem to prefer Labour Party policies and now even think that Labour Party politicians may be more trustworthy (or perhaps less untrustworthy) but a significant number still vote Tory when actually at the ballot box.
Is this true?
Without going back over previous well-trodden ground too much, my impression was that, in the last general election, many Labour voters switched to Conservative because of Corbyn.
Now he's gone, is there any indication that Labour voters will continue to vote Tory, as you claim?
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
And forgive me if this is a silly question, but the Tories do win seats in Scotland?
Also why can’t Labour form a government with the SNP?
Lothian
should be banned
In the recent local elections the Scottish Tories were keen to distance themselves from Boris and the English party. That can be done in a local election, harder in the general election where votes are, despite being for a local representative, also seen as being for the Prime Minister.
Lab and SNP and Libs and PC and the Alliance party and Greens could and probably would form a coalition to the extent they needed to.
Lothian
should be banned
I am not sure you have Labour and Tory voters in the way you used to where your post code gave a 99% accurate prediction.
I think the Tory end still holds up but areas with traditional Labour voters had them because Labour stood up for the poor man. What Boris did well is convince those people that Labour stood up for the immigrants who stole their jobs and the unemployed who they are subsiding and that rather than rich poor being the divide votes should be retired and working vote Tory, unemployed and immigrants vote Labour
A simplified analysis but the working poor is the group that switched rather than the political left and right wing.
The SNP would almost certainly demand a referendum. This is kind of an unresolvable problem. A vote for Labour would be a vote for a referendum which, if the SNP ever won it, would swing the remainder of the UK towards the Conservatives.