Moderated Global Warming Discussion

[uke2se]

Like I said, priceless.

What is it about my post that you think is "priceless"?

Are you simply trolling again?

 

[uke2se]

I quotes it and linked to it the first time. I quoted it and linked to it the second time. Realizing nobody had read it, even when I posted it as evidence for my making the exact same claim, it was time to make somebody read it.

We were not disappointed by the response.

Like I said, this discussion here is not scientific. It's something, but it isn't science.

I have read that article. I don't believe you have. It doesn't support your claim that winters have been getting colder.

It talks about colder local winters, but is clear that this is not a global phenomenon.

Perhaps you should read it again before waffling about other people's lack of scientific input?

ETA: Also, who is "we"? Nobody here agrees with your position.

 

[r-j]

Yes, the cold local winter in some areas of the world is a sign of global warming.

That may be, but it wasn't the point. Try going back and reading again, now that your emotions aren't blinding you to what is being said.

If you were to look out most windows as of this writing, there is a good chance that you would be presented with an image of winter. All around me, winter has sprung, dumping measurable inches of frozen precipitation and snarling the usual habits of work and school as we struggle to cope with its effects on modern life. And more than a few of you might be asking yourself, "What happened to global warming?"

If you are asking yourself that, you fail to understand the difference between weather and climate. We know you can't understand this difference. You have shown so repeatedly.

Well, the effects of global warming are all around us. That harsh winter that we are experiencing, it is not proof that global warming is not happening, but rather serves as proof that it is indeed happening, and even a bit faster than we might like to think. It also shows why the phrase "Climate Change" is a better term to describe the effects of man on his environment.

Yes, the cold local winter in some areas of the world is a sign of global warming. Climate change is a broader phrase than global warming. Both are correct. Again, you fail to understand the difference between climate and weather, global and local.

Vladimir Petoukhov, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, has recently completed a study on the effect of climate change on winter. According to Petoukhov,

These anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and northern Asia. Recent severe winters like last year's or the one of 2005-06 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it.

Again, yes. Locally, winter is getting harsher. Globally, that is not the case.

But how does a colder winter support the idea of a warming earth? It's really simple when you look at the evidence.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global-Warming-Cold-Winters.html

Correct. Harsher winters locally support global warming.

Was this your whole point? If so, thank you for accepting what we have known for quite some time.

My points were clear, and still stand right where I made them.

Is anything going to get you to act like a scientists?

 

[r-j]

That's pretty damned dishonest. Isn't it a breach of Rule 4?

Once again, you accuse others, but can't see what you are doing. Fascinating. It really is like a cult.

Of course now you will report the offense, but you are unable to see the real offence here, is against science.

 

[uke2se]

That may be, but it wasn't the point. Try going back and reading again, now that your emotions aren't blinding you to what is being said.

Then you had no point.

My points were clear, and still stand right where I made them.

No, they were not.

Is anything going to get you to act like a scientists?

Concern trolling like this is getting me closer to putting you on ignore. Stop it.

 

[uke2se]

Once again, you accuse others, but can't see what you are doing. Fascinating. It really is like a cult.

Dishonestly quoting large parts of text without attribution (no, a simple undescribed link isn't attribution) is a violation of Rule 4 and extremely dishonest.

What have I done that is similar to that?

By the way, for someone who whines about being insulted, you sure post a lot of insults.

Of course now you will report the offense, but you are unable to see the real offence here, is against science.

Yep, I will report the offense.

ETA: I see that you have edited your offending post, but not apologized for your dishonesty. Perhaps the mods will feel that sufficient. Let's see.

 

[tsig]

And, on occasion in recent years, rain in Greenland in the depths of winter from warm excursions - which have to balance the cold ones. Where the excursions lie in any particular year and season is a matter of chance, as far as I'm aware, but they have to balance from a global perspective. That's not r-j's perspective, from all the evidence so far provided.

I think from r-j's very localised perspective something must be actively driving the snowy weather to Florida - hence "powerful cold air" and assumption of a "strong jetstream". What's actually happening is that a strong constraining force has weakened and a degree of anarchy has broken out. Weather in the mid-latitudes has become much more unpredictable over the last forty years, and that in itself is a problem. Not an "imagined disaster", but a realised problem, particularly to farmers and agribusinesses.

The more heat you put into a pot of water the faster and more chaotic it boils. Applied on a global scale the more heat the more violent and chaotic the weather will be.

 

[tsig]

Science?



That is just pure nonsense, it isn't science, it isn't even bad science. The cold from the lack of sun in the winter is exactly what causes the intense jet streams, as it interacts with the warm tropical air masses. In the summer the jet streams retreat to the poles, and are very weak, because there is little difference between the temperatures then. It is winter (and spring) when the vast differences cause the powerful jet streams, the storms, the snow, most tornadoes, it's all due to the difference.

In the summer there are very weak fronts, and we don't see anything like the winter patterns at all. Much less do we see powerful jet streams and cold fronts pushing even farther south. That is why the hypothesis that "weaker" jet streams lead to more cold air spilling south is bunk. With out a large cold air mass to create the jet streams, and with out a lot of cold air, cold fronts don't get very far south,

A warm arctic (like in summer) leads to jet streams much farther north, with much less energy. It is cold that drives the jet streams to descend into the tropics. Not heat. The Rossby waves is another story, but they no more create the cold weather than a jet stream.

It's a bit surprising to see such a level of wrong on this forum.

You just said the same thing as CapelDodger except you took a lot more words and had a much worse attitude.

 

[tsig]

It's an amazing thing. The most unscientific insulting posts here get no attention, but you post something scientific, and clearly state a fact, and it's viewed as

So rather than talk about new developments in climate science, which are even being labeled as "due to global warming", there are hundreds of lines of text that talk about other people.

This can't be by chance.

They also serve who only sit and snark.

 

[Buckaroo]

R-j, for the fourth time, what is the point you believe you're making by posting garbage about an alleged "cold winter?"

 

[lomiller]

It helps if you source your claims.

It seems to me that CapelDodger's claim is correct, and that your claim is a bit dubious, although that could just be my inability to understand any of your posts.

I agree with you. CapelDodger's claim certainly seems stronger. "a lack of energy" be it sunlight or anything else never drives anything, it's always gradients where energy flows from higher to lower than drives things.

 

[lomiller]

Or when it is brought up that winters are getting colder, more snow, and it is claimed that what is being stated is impossible to understand.

Your claim that winters are getting colder haven't panned out. You seem to be conflating more snow with colder, but the opposite is actually true. Since it typically only snows when it's relatively close to freezing more snow is apt to mean warmer in much of the word.

 

[lomiller]

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global-Warming-Cold-Winters.html

This article is discussing the frequency of extreme weather events and how global warming makes them more frequent. It is not suggesting winters are getting colder and therefor does not support your claim.

 

[Megalodon]

If you can't understand how that sort of "discussion" is about as far away from education (the E in JREF) as you can get, you probably will sit around and claim victory when nobody wants to even try to discuss climate science with you.

You are welcome to search for my posts in this and the other AGW threads, johny-come-lately. I would say I've contributed to that "E" you're so fond of more than many.

As for your little snippy-job, please note how in none of those instances I was berating a scientist for coming to different conclusions from me regarding the data.

The reason for that is two-fold:

- Although I've analyzed some of the data myself, and researched and published in closely related topics, I am not a climate scientist, and thus have no say in the debate. That is why I stick to divulging what I read in the literature, written by specialists. When the discussion moves to those related topics, my opinion is my own, since I researched and published in those areas.

- None of the comments I was responding to were from climate scientists, or scientists for that matter. They were not analyzing data, they were braying to the ether.

It's funny, and it makes you look bad. Not the people you insult. They look smart, for refusing to read that sort of YouTube level comments.

Let's make a deal: you stop saying stupid things, and I stop calling you on the stupid things you say.

Ok, Mr."AGW-is-not-happening-because-it-was-cold-this-two-weeks-but-I-think-AGW-is-a-problem-but-it's-not-because-the-winters-in-my-backyard-are-getting-colder-although-the-data-shows-nothing-of-the-sort"?

 

[DC]

Once again, you accuse others, but can't see what you are doing. Fascinating. It really is like a cult.

Of course now you will report the offense, but you are unable to see the real offence here, is against science.

you mean the denialist cult aeound prophet Watts and co?

 

[macdoc]

Haven't had this good a chew toy in a while.

 

[macdoc]

R-J

The cold from the lack of sun in the winter is exactly what causes the intense jet streams, as it interacts with the warm tropical air masses.

Except you miss a very key item which shows you STILL do not understand what is going on in the far north.

The degree of cold when there is no sun is controlled by the amount of time the high pressure system stay stationary as
a) there is little or no incoming solar to warm the area
b) the radiation to space is maximized as there are no clouds when it's a high pressure dome.

So the failure of the highs to move out increases the range of intense cold and increases the gradient even tho the Arctic higher up is warmer due to the ocean. Those blocking highs sit further south over the continents instead of over the pole.
By omissions like the that you demonstrate you simply don't understand the physics and geodynamics.

I don't pretend I do at the level a climatologist does but if there is something confounding I ask Gavin or another at RealClimate for a link or a quick explanation.

There are people here quite willing to inform your understanding.....you have to be willing to listen.

 

[CapelDodger]

Science?



That is just pure nonsense, it isn't science, it isn't even bad science. The cold from the lack of sun in the winter is exactly what causes the intense jet streams, as it interacts with the warm tropical air masses. In the summer the jet streams retreat to the poles, and are very weak, because there is little difference between the temperatures then. It is winter (and spring) when the vast differences cause the powerful jet streams, the storms, the snow, most tornadoes, it's all due to the difference.

You seem to have grasped that the temperature gradient is what creates the jetsreams and determines their strength. The rest of it you've got almost completely to cock.

Jetstreams determine the storm track. When they move away from the poles they bring the storms with them.

In the summer there are very weak fronts, and we don't see anything like the winter patterns at all. Much less do we see powerful jet streams and cold fronts pushing even farther south.

What we get is weaker jetstreams, which meander more (as I previously pointed out). It isn't strong jetstreams which push air from the poles, it is weak jetstreams meandering from the poles and allowing cold air to come south. This is why European summer weather is famously unpredictable, since they depend on the unpredictable meanderings of the weaker summer jetstream. Last summer, for instance, saw the jetstream flowing south across Scotland and the North Sea and directing storms from the Atlantic across England and mainland Europe. Meanwhile blocking highs kept forming over Scandinavia. The result was England's second wettest year (by a smdigin) including its driest spring (when the jetstream was arcing way north), with lower-than-average annual rainfall for North and East Scotland.

That is why the hypothesis that "weaker" jet streams lead to more cold air spilling south is bunk. With out a large cold air mass to create the jet streams, and with out a lot of cold air, cold fronts don't get very far south,

Now you slip back to the unique power of cold air masses, when in fact it is the temperature gradient between cold and warm air-masses that lead (via the resultant pressure gradient) to jetstreams.

A warm arctic (like in summer) leads to jet streams much farther north, with much less energy. It is cold that drives the jet streams to descend into the tropics. Not heat.

The averaged latitude of jetstreams varies with the season because the effective equator (where the Sun is overhead at noon) varies. It remains at about the same relative position on the arc from effective equator to pole. That arc is smaller in summer, so the jetstream latitude is closer to the pole. In winter, naturally, the reverse is the case. It's nothing to do with the special power of cold to push things around.

The Rossby waves is another story, but they no more create the cold weather than a jet stream.

Drop in a buzz-phrase why don't you. They always impress, especially after such a display of confusion and heartfelt error.

It's a bit surprising to see such a level of wrong on this forum.

I'm not surprised at all, a Science forum does attract all sorts who haven't a clue what they don't know about a subject. This, you'll not be surprised to hear, includes you.

Think of a subject you're actually conversant with and imagine someone so ignorant of it they're convinced they know it all, and certainly know it better than the experts, such as yourself. At that point you might turn your thoughts inward and perhaps wonder, if only for a moment.

From your link to NASA, by the way, I now realise that by "winters are getting colder" you mean European winters are getting colder (not immediately obvious) but the graph is of annual mean, not specifically winter. We've had a string of cloudy (hence relatively cold) summers recently. As a source for your claim I'm afraid it's insufficient.

Cnadian winters have definitely been getting warmer, there was a study done on it recently. Someone may have a reference to it?

 

[CapelDodger]

Those blocking highs sit further south over the continents instead of over the pole.

They're settling over Scandinavia far too often for my liking of late. I'm just hoping this is not tightly linked to the Arctic Ocean because there's only one way that's going, and its going there very fast.

 

[CapelDodger]

You are welcome to search for my posts in this and the other AGW threads, johny-come-lately. I would say I've contributed to that "E" you're so fond of more than many.

And I, for one, am deeply grateful, and thank you for it.

I hope I've contributed some Entertainment if nothing else . Over the many years. I felt quite nostalgic when I heard that SlimeItGate 3 is out, and this time it's personal. Again. Well, what else have they got left, poor dears?

All those years ago when the emergence of Singer announced the birth of the denier movement it was possible to model the general arc it would take but great uncertainty about the timing and precise details. Monckton, for instance, was a detail no-one could have imagined but his emergence as the face [sic] of denialism is within the arc. Denialism now blends with birtherism on the long decline to Hollow Earthism. Priceless.

Shame about the climate, but waddya gonna do?