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Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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The point was the failure of peer reviewed literature and the reliance on argument from credentials by journal editors, reporters, and even specialist scientists. I thought that was obvious, since the science at issue was immunology, not atmospheric physics, marine carbon sequestration, dendrochronology, or geochemistry.

Then they do not apply because they are not the same research, nor in the same time frame, nor in the same peer reviews.

I know you don't like the data, yet it comes from divergent sources and measures.
 
Not for long, given...Or, avoid "stupid" people who play "little games" to advance "simplistic views".
See you all in another week or so, maybe. The strident, unmoderated ad hominem that passes for argument around here is tiresome.

:sdl:

You will do anything to avoid admitting that my answers to you are packed with information.

It's ok... return when you're ready to learn something.
 
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if he hasn't at this point ....well ....good riddance - climate denial chew toys are rara avis now and not particularly missed. Extinction even long overdue.

You might find this admission telling

Malcolm Kirkpatrick says:
April 19, 2011 at 6:30 pm
Co2 and Climate: a Geologist’s View
Abstract
Climate is discussed as an integral part of System Earth, determined by a complex interplay of numerous geological, biological and solar processes. The historical and geological record of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 pressure does not support the current popular vision that this greenhouse gas is the dominant climate controlling agent. When empirically ante post tested against past global climate changes, the forecasts of the climate models mainly based on forcing by atmospheric CO2 are not borne out. On the other hand, recent studies show that solar variability rather than changing CO2 pressure is an important, probably the dominant climate forcing factor.​
I’m no expert. I have to rely on experts. The Hockey Team disqualified themselves with their behavior. That much I can assess. Argue in the Team’s style and you discredit your voice.
there is much of interesting reading across forums..
http://www.samefacts.com/2011/04/climate-change/interesting-weather-weve-been-having/

and he sets his "expertise" in judgement here..


http://johnrennie.net/2010/05/09/“stasists”-no-“deniers”-yes/
:dl:

Indeed he would be judged by the company he keeps - that is quite a compendium of denier talking points ....all without a shred of credibility.

this is who they try and trash....

John Rennie served as editor in chief of Scientific American (including the monthly magazine, Scientific American Mind, ScientificAmerican.com and other publications) between 1994 and 2009. During his tenure the magazine twice won National Magazine Awards with the single-topic issues What You Need to Know about Cancer (Sept. 1996) and A Matter of Time (Sept. 2002). One satirical essay that he wrote, “Okay, We Give Up” (April 2005), was also a finalist in the Essay and Commentary category. His 2002 article, “15 Answers to Creationist Nonsense,” is one of the most read and downloaded articles in the history of ScientificAmerican.com.
http://johnrennie.net/about-john-rennie/

hubris writ large in the denier community ....

and in a bit of irony

In 2000 Rennie was the recipient of the Sagan Award for Public Understanding of Science, bestowed by the Council of Scientific Society Presidents. In Sept. 2003 the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies honored him with its Navigator Award for distinguished service in support of national science and technology policy. He serves as a trustee of the James Randi Educational Foundation,

•••••
Moving on to someone who does know what he is talking about when it comes to climate science...Gavin Schmidt
This is a very interesting article as one of the worlds top climate scientists and communicators eviscerates and examines the entrails of a typical denier bit of garbage circulated in the deniosphere....interesting reading

http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...ea-level-golden-horseshoe-nominee/#more-13252
 
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What do you think will happen to Foraminifera due to global warning

Still unanswered, Malcolm Kirkpatrick:
Originally Posted by Reality Check
Malcolm Kirkpatrick: Species of Foraminifera could not adapt to temperature changes that took thousands of years.
What do you think will happen to Foraminifera when similar temperature changes take place over a couple of centuries or even decades?
Revised question from 10th September 2012
(originally What do you think will happen to Foraminifera when CO2 changes over decades?)

38 days and counting.
 
no scientist AFAIK has ever seriously predicted runaway +ve feedbacks or runaway global warming.

I'm not sure what purpose is served by making a second-hand claim about what Hansen has written in a book. Is it that hard to confirm what Hansen himself has actually written?


Thanks Pixel42
 
That there is no evidence of any kind of a warming disaster, due to runaway feedbacks, in the entire climate history of our planet, this seems to be one main reason for intelligent scientists to criticize the alarming predictions.

Let's forget the most alarming predictions, as in Hansen's hypothetical (we're obviously not going to burn all fossil fuels) and consider what's likely, such as 3C above pre-industrial temperatures. That comes with drought in the US Mid-West as normal (just one of many disruptions to agriculture). What's not alarming about that? It would certainly be a human disaster.

That sort of alarming talk also does a great deal of damage to somebodies credibility.
It does no harm to their credibility if they discuss hypotheticals, but they do then provide deniers with distractions which all too many people fall for. Intelligent scientists are focussed on what is most likely to happen, and it's not a pretty picture for any of them.

Those such as Lindzen and Christie whose motivated thinking led them to believe in low climate sensitivity can see it being repudiated right before their eyes, and they're intelligent enough to know it's not going to get any better. An ugly prospect. They carry on lying about it, of course, even as climate demonstrates a greater sensitivity because what really concerns them is any concerted action being taken and low sensitivity is the best argument they've got against that. It might see out their days but they surely know that concerted action will be taken in the medium-term, a thiought they must hate but there it is.

More honest scientists can see what's coming, and that's also an ugly prospect.

Especially since it is easy to take the scrubbers off of coal plants and send the planet back into a little ice age.

It's ironic that coal produces so much CO2, but also produces SO2 if not cleaned.
It's ironic that the masking of AGW by sulphate pollution (and other airborne signs of recent modernisation) has given false comfort to deniers and wishful-thinkers, who resolutely refuse to consider it in their "No warming since ..." efforts. The reason scrubbers were put on coal-plants is that people refused to live that way any longer and (against industry opposition and a denial campaign) concerted action was taken. By governments. China and India will have to do the same soon, and "No warming since ..." will go the way of the "long-term cooling phase" (remember that one?) which we entered back around 2007.

Would we be in a little ice age if nobody scrubbed coal? If there never was a clean air act?
No. There'd still be AGW, and the feedbacks aren't strong enough anyway.

In any case, if some terrible disaster is created (as most believe), to predict nobody will do anything about it is stupid. If it really is CO2 man will remove it.
No doubt things will be done about it after the disaster.

But based on recent history, in regards to many things that nobody questions, forcing man to stop doing stupid things is almost impossible. Like over fishing, fertilizer run off, oil spills, mercury poisoning, deforesting, killing off entire species, nuclear disasters, over use of antibiotics, and on and on and so forth.

How does anyone force the rest of the world to do as they are told?
Sufficient force would do it, obviously, but sanctions can be very powerful.
 
So the "Related" part of
was a lie because the link has nothing to do with this thread (is unrelated to global warming) :rolleyes: ?
Obviously you posted that link in the wrong thread. Maybe you should ask a moderator to remove it.
It relates because Baltimore and his defenders used the same tactics we see the AGW believers use here (and elsewhere).
 
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no scientist AFAIK has ever seriously predicted runaway +ve feedbacks or runaway global warming.

Hansen is quoted here:

http://www.sindark.com/2010/02/04/is-runaway-climate-change-possible-hansens-take/


After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I’ve come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty.

So he's talking about a very much worse care scenario. My impression is that most climatologists think the chances of a runaway greenhouse effect are very small, but not zero.

So now I know better, thanks for the link Pixel42, I'm always happy to learn and in the light of that new knowledge let me rephrase what I said
No scientist AFAIK has ever predicted runaway +ve feedbacks or runaway global warming in a peer reviewed paper, though J. Hansen has speculated that a Venus syndrome type runaway greenhouse effect will occur if we burn all the fossilfuels and all the methane in the permafrost and clathrates is released.
 
It relates because Baltimore and his defenders used the same tactics we see the AGW believers use here (and elsewhere).
No it does not relate because you have presented no evidence that the "same tactics" are used by AGW believers here or elsewhere.

Start by listing the tactics in that link. Then match each tactic to posts in this thread. For example - Failures of the establishment press.
Which of the posters here are the establishment press?
Where are the posts in this thread being printed (New York Times?)?
​
 
To clarify; I was referring to degrees K and I was referring to the fact that I think a global average warming of six degrees K is not unlikely by 2100.

I predicted long ago that the climate models were too optimistic by a lot, and my basis for that prediction was the number of physical feedback mechanisms I could describe which were not considered in those models.

I believe we will have a much worse outcome than consensus models indicate as a result.

Most especially I think we have failed to understand how ice caps melt under modern conditions, but I am seeing evidence that those lacunae are being closed. So consequently I believe that sea level rise by 2100 will surprise many alive today should medical science allow us to survive until then.
 
Yup - every single IPCC report has been conservative against reality and the the Arctic is flat out barely modeled at all so the rate of change has caught scientists flat footed as there are clearly powerful forces at work moving more heat into the area than anticipated and the albedo feedback of an open Arctic ocean is hard to model.

The canary is in Hudson Bay where ice retreat is astounding at times...

Hudson Bay and Approaches
Freeze-up and Winter Ice Regime
Air temperatures averaged 2 to 4°C above normal throughout September and October, 6 to 8°C above normal in November and 12 to 16°C above normal from early December through to the third week of January.
http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=9B371E9B-1&offset=2&toc=show

12 - 16 C above normal!!!:boggled:

Given there are no apparent negative feedbacks to slow the process beyond our pumping lots of S02 inadvertently - this WILL be an interesting few decades.
 
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No scientist AFAIK has ever predicted runaway +ve feedbacks or runaway global warming in a peer reviewed paper, though J. Hansen has speculated that a Venus syndrome type runaway greenhouse effect will occur if we burn all the fossilfuels and all the methane in the permafrost and clathrates is released.

There are inferential conclusions to be drawn in that we are putting C02 into the atmosphere on a faster rate than the lead up to the Permian Extinction event. So yes there are potential earth biome killer events within published papers.

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/mass-extinction-1118.html

here is the paper.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/334/6061/1367.abstract

These are remote potentials - 4 degrees C by end of century combined with a peak population and resource demand will simply further the 6th Extinction event now in progress.

AGW is only one stressor tho once in place.....for all intents and purposes unstoppable consequences. We are .7 degrees C into a minimum 1.4 C even if we stopped cold and that is not counting potential methane release and other feedbacks brewing up in the taiga/tundra.
 
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I think 6 or 8°C in <90 years somewhat exaggerated. Almost 40% of Earth's surface is between tropics and just 8% in polar zones. As tropical areas become warmer -looking only to temperature- much slowly than polar areas, 6 or 8° may imply some 3° warmer tropical areas and 30° warmer polar regions. I guesstimate that is only possible if several conditions are met: anthropogenic emissions tenfold during this century; methane release from chlatrates is not a "bomb" but become a serious unstoppable major source; the 95% core cold ocean waters finally fails to become an important sink for greenhouse gases and extra radiative forcing as its temperature differential with the atmosphere increases; and mankind becomes a bunch of Malcolm Kirkpatricks, but having a lot of spring. I find all that difficult to believe, as your own personal behaviour illustrates and the core waters resilience "promises". I hope that by 2100 environmental development in USA during 1999 will be seen as primitive as human development in Equatorial Africa in 1899 is seen today. Certainly, some characters that burst now an then in this thread match those images with little bones through the septum, and will be seen with the same understanding smile in the future.
 
MIT puts anything above 7C a low probability - I don't see 4 as avoidable but then it did not look good on the S02 front early on and it ended up costing far less but S02 drops out relatively quickly - C02 does not.

To warm the atmosphere over 7 the ocean heat accumulation would have to be enormous and most of the cryosphere gone.

http://globalwarmingisreal.com/2009...imate-change-is-going-to-be-twice-as-extreme/
 
Warming is not a threat to the fisheries of the world. Over fishing most certainly is. The last time there was a major warming was the holocene Thermal maximum of 8,000 years ago an the world did great. The PETM was likewise a wonderful time for the biosphere of the world with the exception of some localised foraminifera populations who probably were killed by lack of O2.

Historically, warming has been good for the planet.
 
Gergis et al is withdrawn

It's nice to finally see peer review doing its work properly. The paper shouldn't have been published in the first place, and certainly the media attention given to it will be conspicuous by its absence now that the paper has been proven to be highly flawed, but it's a start.

"Dear Stephen,

I am contacting you on behalf of all the authors of the Gergis et al (2012) study ‘Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium’

An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, which may affect the results. While the paper states that “both proxy climate and instrumental data were linearly detrended over the 1921–1990 period”, we discovered on Tuesday 5 June that the records used in the final analysis were not detrended for proxy selection, making this statement incorrect. Although this is an unfortunate data processing issue, it is likely to have implications for the results reported in the study. The journal has been contacted and the publication of the study has been put on hold.

This is a normal part of science. The testing of scientific studies through independent analysis of data and methods strengthens the conclusions. In this study, an issue has been identified and the results are being re-checked.

We would be grateful if you would post the notice below on your ClimateAudit web site.

We would like to thank you and the participants at the ClimateAudit blog for your scrutiny of our study, which also identified this data processing issue.

Thanks, David Karoly

Print publication of scientific study put on hold

An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, “Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium” by Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Stephen Phipps, Ailie Gallant and David Karoly, accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate.

We are currently reviewing the data and results."





http://climateaudit.org/2012/06/08/gergis-et-al-put-on-hold/
 
Warming is not a threat to the fisheries of the world.

Really? Then please tell me where are the Sub- and Arctic fish moving to once it gets to warm for them at their present (high) latitudes.

And where are the fish to populate the tropical upwellings coming from, once the water during downwelling events gets too warm for the species presently there?

Over fishing most certainly is.

Agreed.

The last time there was a major warming was the holocene Thermal maximum of 8,000 years ago an the world did great. The PETM was likewise a wonderful time for the biosphere of the world with the exception of some localised foraminifera populations who probably were killed by lack of O2.

Please remind me how many advanced civilizations existed during the PETM. And please remind me of the rate of warming leading to both the PETM and the HTM.

If we were still hunter-gatherers the warming would be fantastic, and there would be a zebra in every pot. We aren't and we are very dependent on stable climatic areas, and a reasonably predictable weather.

Both things go out the window in such a rapidly warming world, as the events of the last decade have shown to anyone with their eyes open.

Historically, warming has been good for the planet.

Paraphrasing Carlin: "The planet will be fine... We're **********!"
 
It's nice to finally see peer review doing its work properly.

What do you mean "finally". Do you have any evidence that peer-review wasn't working properly before?

The paper shouldn't have been published in the first place...

The paper wasn't published, it was accepted for publication. Those are two very different steps of the publication process. A paper can be accepted, conditional to the satisfaction of the reviewers doubts or complaints. That is the time where a second look at the data might reveal problems not detected before.

...now that the paper has been proven to be highly flawed, but it's a start.

As far as I saw the authors think that it might be problematic for the analysis, but the publication is still on hold and not withdrawn. Probably there will be a re-analysis followed by re-writing and re-submission. Never pretty, and always awkward.

And this, boys and girls, is why you don't throw your paper around before it is in press...
 
Really? Then please tell me where are the Sub- and Arctic fish moving to once it gets to warm for them at their present (high) latitudes.

And where are the fish to populate the tropical upwellings coming from, once the water during downwelling events gets too warm for the species presently there?



Agreed.



Please remind me how many advanced civilizations existed during the PETM. And please remind me of the rate of warming leading to both the PETM and the HTM.

If we were still hunter-gatherers the warming would be fantastic, and there would be a zebra in every pot. We aren't and we are very dependent on stable climatic areas, and a reasonably predictable weather.

Both things go out the window in such a rapidly warming world, as the events of the last decade have shown to anyone with their eyes open.



Paraphrasing Carlin: "The planet will be fine... We're **********!"






The world "rapidly" warmed during the Holocene Thermal Maximum too. The fisheries did very well. Mammalian life did very well. Allmost all life did very well. This is well shown in the paleo record. Recently glaciers have retreated in Alaska and Greenland and massive trees were uncovered from that time. Life does very well when it is warmer.

This has been shown repeatedly in the paleo record. Your meme of rapid heating killing everything isn't borne out by the empirical data.
 
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