Moderated Global Warming Discussion

[Pixel42]

Has anyone actually tried to play this winter up as unusally cold?

For the record, February was unusually cold across Europe:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

During February 2012, many land areas around the globe, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, saw extreme warm or extreme cold temperatures compared with their averages. The temperature departures were due at least in part to a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation during the first half of the month that was associated with a long and severe cold snap to Central and Eastern Europe. Anomalous cold stretched across most of the 40°N–55°N latitude belt of Europe and Asia. It was also much colder than normal across eastern Russia to the northeast. Conversely, all of Canada, the eastern half of the United States, and north central Russia saw much warmer-than-average temperatures. The average Northern Hemisphere land temperature was 0.31°C (0.56°F) above normal, the 45th warmest February for this region since records began in 1880. February 2012 also marks the coolest February since 1994 for the Northern Hemisphere.

Globally:

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for February 2012 was the 22nd warmest on record and the coolest since 2008, at 12.47°C (54.57°F), which is 0.37°C (0.67°F) above the 20th century average of 12.1°C (53.9°F).

 

[Warmer1]

Has anyone actually tried to play this winter up as unusally cold?

As mentioned the media covered it a lot and here is a post from NASA

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/16feb_deepfreeze/

Then, out of the blue, Europe got clobbered: Over the past two weeks, temperatures in Eastern Europe have nose-dived to -30 degrees Celsius (-22 degrees Fahrenheit). Blizzards and the bone-chilling cold have resulted in the deaths of over 550 people so far, with rooftop-high snow drifts trapping tens of thousands of villagers in their homes and cutting off access to entire towns. It has even snowed as far south as North Africa.

but further down the page

Patzert adds, however, that this winter is just one of many severe winters that have changed European history. "Looking back, Mother Nature has taken us on some very wild rides."

He cites the winter of 1683/84, when the Thames River in England stayed frozen with a thick layer of ice for nearly two months, as an example.
Europe Hammered (Napoleon, 200px)
If only Napolean had a weather satellite.... [more]

"And let’s not forget the frigid winter of 1812, when Napoleon's Grande Armee was decimated by the extreme cold in Western Russia."


Thanks for the reports on how warm it has been which provides some balance to the media reports.


I am interested in how the melting of the Arctic Ice will change weather patterns.

From the Arctic Methane Emergency Group site.

http://www.ameg.me/index.php/arctic-warming

"At the 2011 AGU meeting –Dr. Jennifer presenting Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk “Does Arctic Amplification Fuel Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes?” said “The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation…it’s how can it not?"

This graph of sea ice loss was posted on the site but I read that the graph was created based on PIOMAS information. There was some controversy about this graph which could just be the denial machine at work.

http://www.ameg.me/index.php/sea-ice

I have just started to study this so any feedback is appreciated.

 

[Warmer1]

Here's the controversy regarding the graph from the Polar Science Center

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/

"The BBC article Climate tech fixes urged for Arctic methane incorrectly identifies the University of Washington as the source for a prediction of the disappearance of sea ice in the Arctic in the next few years.

“Analysis from the University of Washington, in Seattle, using ice thickness data from submarines and satellites, suggests that Septembers could be ice-free within just a few years.”

This is factually incorrect. The graph apparently comes from an unidentified online blog posting which uses some our data to conduct its analysis. This analysis extrapolates PIOMAS ice volume data to arrive at a date when sea ice might first disappear. This extrapolation represents the analysis and judgement of the unidentified poster of the graph. The University of Washington was not involved in this analysis. We have informed the BBC and asked for a correction."


I wonder if the analysis is correct though?, and if not the Arctic Methane Emergency Group have missed this.

I believe that the Arctic Ice could melt in a big way in a few years though given the right conditions. If the southern states continue to experience more record heat years some of that heat has to be carried north by the Gulf Stream.

 

[BenBurch]

Speaking of Ireland,...Happy St Patty's Day to one and all, there's a little Irish in us all (whether we like it or not)!

Only thing I dislike about biofuels, they seem a waste of a lot of potential whiskey.

Fear not! I did my best to rescue a bottle of Tullamore Dew.

 

[Mikemcc]

As mentioned the media covered it a lot and here is a post from NASA

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/16feb_deepfreeze/

Then, out of the blue, Europe got clobbered: Over the past two weeks, temperatures in Eastern Europe have nose-dived to -30 degrees Celsius (-22 degrees Fahrenheit). Blizzards and the bone-chilling cold have resulted in the deaths of over 550 people so far, with rooftop-high snow drifts trapping tens of thousands of villagers in their homes and cutting off access to entire towns. It has even snowed as far south as North Africa.

but further down the page

Patzert adds, however, that this winter is just one of many severe winters that have changed European history. "Looking back, Mother Nature has taken us on some very wild rides."

He cites the winter of 1683/84, when the Thames River in England stayed frozen with a thick layer of ice for nearly two months, as an example.
Europe Hammered (Napoleon, 200px)
If only Napolean had a weather satellite.... [more]

"And let’s not forget the frigid winter of 1812, when Napoleon's Grande Armee was decimated by the extreme cold in Western Russia."


Thanks for the reports on how warm it has been which provides some balance to the media reports.


I am interested in how the melting of the Arctic Ice will change weather patterns.

From the Arctic Methane Emergency Group site.

http://www.ameg.me/index.php/arctic-warming

"At the 2011 AGU meeting –Dr. Jennifer presenting Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk “Does Arctic Amplification Fuel Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes?” said “The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation…it’s how can it not?"

This graph of sea ice loss was posted on the site but I read that the graph was created based on PIOMAS information. There was some controversy about this graph which could just be the denial machine at work.

http://www.ameg.me/index.php/sea-ice

I have just started to study this so any feedback is appreciated.

Just a little point about the Thames. At the times when it froze the river flowed at a much lower velocity. It wasn't constrained by the embankments (built in the 1860s) and was slowed by the bridges due to the short span of their arches. The Thames would have been much more sensitive to freezing

 

[BenBurch]

Just a little point about the Thames. At the times when it froze the river flowed at a much lower velocity. It wasn't constrained by the embankments (built in the 1860s) and was slowed by the bridges due to the short span of their arches. The Thames would have been much more sensitive to freezing

Good point.

 

[lomiller]

Speaking of Ireland,...Happy St Patty's Day to one and all, there's a little Irish in us all (whether we like it or not)!

Only thing I dislike about biofuels, they seem a waste of a lot of potential whiskey.

While I certainly wish everyone a happy St Patty's day I live in Canada, not Ireland

 

[Warmer1]

Just a little point about the Thames. At the times when it froze the river flowed at a much lower velocity. It wasn't constrained by the embankments (built in the 1860s) and was slowed by the bridges due to the short span of their arches. The Thames would have been much more sensitive to freezing

Thanks for that mikemcc. I would guess that one must also consider the hockey stick graph when considering historical data as well but your insights are much appreciated.

I hope that anyone that sees errors in my ideas will chime in and correct me. The reason that I post some random ideas, which I guess may be correct is to have more knowlegeable people respond and steer me in the right direction.

As I initially considered the heat waves in the southern US heating up the Gulf of Mexico waters I considered the increased warming to be soley a matter of the heat being transferred to the ocean, and then it donned on me that the large land masses inland which contain many relatively shallow lakes and rivers and streams would also heat up a lot. I remember during very hot summers years ago when small lakes and ponds would seem very warm and not cool enough to be refrshing to swim in and that was 25 years ago.

Now when I consider the very large land masses expericencing record temperatures I wonder how all of the heated water flowing off of the continental US might heat up the Gulf of Mexico waters, and then the Gulf Stream, and then eventually end up getting circulated into the Arctic ocean.

Is it possible that heat waves in the continental US may heat up the shallow waters inland to a much greater degree, and then those waters flow into the ocean and then eventually circulate into the Arctic and heat up the Arctic Ocean greatly contributing to the loss of sea ice?

If the Mississipi river heats up will that heat circulate into the Arctic Ocean?

 

[BenBurch]

...

If the Mississipi river heats up will that heat circulate into the Arctic Ocean?

Not directly, but there ARE plenty of rivers that flow north into the Arctic Ocean, and they would transport heat directly.

Not sure of the magnitude of the potential effects, however.

 

[lomiller]

Extreme heatwaves and precipitation events over the last decade are probably related to climate change. It looks like there is less certainty around storms/hurricanes.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1452.html

 

[Westwall]

And your compelling evidence of criminality is?

My guess would be his admitted criminal behavior.

 

[Buckaroo]

Extreme heatwaves and precipitation events over the last decade are probably related to climate change. It looks like there is less certainty around storms/hurricanes.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1452.html

Well, of course that liberal rag Nature would claim a connection.

 

[CapelDodger]

Extreme heatwaves and precipitation events over the last decade are probably related to climate change. It looks like there is less certainty around storms/hurricanes.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1452.html

More on that at http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/...all-extremes-causing-intense-human-suffering/

 

[Trakar]

My guess would be his admitted criminal behavior.

Reference?

 

[Trakar]

2 l8 4 2

The UN's former climate chief says the global warming pledge he helped set at the Copenhagen Summit little more than two years ago is already unattainable.

"I think two degrees is out of reach," Yvo de Boer, former executive secretary of the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said on the sidelines of a conference here on June's Rio+20 summit...

http://m.timeslive.co.za/?name=timeslive&i=11263/1/0&artId=18297

"Soylent Green" background premise keeps sounding more prescient by the day. 2022 sounds a bit early, but Harry Harrison may have only been a couple decades off.

 

[Trakar]

Something odious this way slithers

Global warming close to becoming irreversible-scientists
Tue Mar 27, 2012 8:58pm GMT

* Some 'tipping points' closer to being reached

* Loss of Siberian permafrost worrying, scientists say

By Nina Chestney

LONDON, March 26 (Reuters) - The world is close to reaching tipping points that will make it irreversibly hotter, making this decade critical in efforts to contain global warming, scientists warned on Monday.

Scientific estimates differ but the world's temperature looks set to rise by six degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are allowed to rise uncontrollably.

As emissions grow, scientists say the world is close to reaching thresholds beyond which the effects on the global climate will be irreversible, such as the melting of polar ice sheets and loss of rainforests.

"This is the critical decade. If we don't get the curves turned around this decade we will cross those lines," said Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's climate change institute, speaking at a conference in London.

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL6E8EQ4GA20120327?sp=true

It's gonna be a long hot summer (by way of analogy) as the anthropocene hits its stride.

 

[Trakar]

Day late and a dollar short

EPA Proposes First Carbon Pollution Standard for Future Power Plants/Achievable standard is in line with investments already being made and will inform the building of new plants moving forward

Release Date: 03/27/2012
Contact Information: Cathy Milbourn (News Media Only) Milbourn.cathy@epa.gov 202-564-7849 202-564-4355

WASHINGTON – Following a 2007 Supreme Court ruling, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today proposed the first Clean Air Act standard for carbon pollution from new power plants. EPA’s proposed standard reflects the ongoing trend in the power sector to build cleaner plants that take advantage of American-made technologies, including new, clean-burning, efficient natural gas generation, which is already the technology of choice for new and planned power plants. At the same time, the rule creates a path forward for new technologies to be deployed at future facilities that will allow companies to burn coal, while emitting less carbon pollution. The rulemaking proposed today only concerns new generating units that will be built in the future, and does not apply to existing units already operating or units that will start construction over the next 12 months.

“Today we’re taking a common-sense step to reduce pollution in our air, protect the planet for our children, and move us into a new era of American energy,” said EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson. “Right now there are no limits to the amount of carbon pollution that future power plants will be able to put into our skies – and the health and economic threats of a changing climate continue to grow. We’re putting in place a standard that relies on the use of clean, American made technology to tackle a challenge that we can’t leave to our kids and grandkids.”...

http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpres...9b4e8033d7e641d9852579ce005ae957!OpenDocument

 

[KwamiFabu]

Extreme heatwaves and precipitation events over the last decade are probably related to climate change. It looks like there is less certainty around storms/hurricanes.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1452.html

The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme — notably heatwaves, but also precipitation extremes — there is now strong evidence linking specific events or an increase in their numbers to the human influence on climate. For other types of extreme, such as storms, the available evidence is less conclusive, but based on observed trends and basic physical concepts it is nevertheless plausible to expect an increase.

Since I don't subscribe to Nature, I have no idea what the article actually says. But the abstract says plenty. Especially the highlighted part, which practically shouts "confirmation bias ahead!"

 

[KwamiFabu]

EPA Proposes First Carbon Pollution Standard for Future Power Plants/Achievable standard is in line with investments already being made and will inform the building of new plants moving forward




http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpres...9b4e8033d7e641d9852579ce005ae957!OpenDocument

Yet another reason for shutting down the EPA, or at least
firing Lisa Jackson. She is out of control. CO2 is not a pollutant!

If this insane policy continues for another four years, the US will be under the thumb of the Chinese and Saudis for a generation.

 

[Trakar]

Since I don't subscribe to Nature, I have no idea what the article actually says. But the abstract says plenty. Especially the highlighted part, which practically shouts "confirmation bias ahead!"

Only if you have a very poor understanding of science and approach the issue with strong levels of confirmational bias in your interpretation of the bolded statements.