Moderated Global Warming Discussion

[Mikemcc]

Call me crazy, but what does the criminality of Gleick have to do with the price of rice in India? No, really. It's a big fat red-herring and we all know it. Why defend him or let the deniers set the debate, at all?

Here's what the deniers are doing: they want to keep this a scientific debate, but it's moved beyond science. Since it's now an empirical fact that climate change is underway, and anthropogenic sources contribute, it has become an ethical debate. We can do something about OUR contribution to the problem, therefore we should.

Denier knowitalls would like to continue nitpicking the details of yesterday's science, or derail with unrelated subjects like Gleick. But many of the predictions of the '90s are emerging realities of the '10s, so we may safely set the deniers concerns aside and move on to the more pressing research needed. How to mitigate and ultimately end our contribution to CO2 forcing, including all of it's known amplifying factors (particulates, deforestation, etc.)?

Clearly, the biggie is sustainable energy. Solar, wind, and whatever else works that doesn't burn petroleum.

Eventually yes, there are many technical problems associated with intermittancy, reliability and efficiency. It's still early days . Efficiency on PV solar is increasing damatically. Offshore wind is excellent but depend on investment on grid infrastucture, especially HVDC. Recent developments enable fast switching into HVDC which will help reduce problems with renewables. Expansion of HVDC grids across the Med will alllow better development of solar, and hopefuly better humidification of North africa. These are dreams of 100 year plus unfortunately.

 

[Trakar]

Call me crazy, but what does the criminality of Gleick have to do with the price of rice in India? No, really. It's a big fat red-herring and we all know it. Why defend him or let the deniers set the debate, at all?

Here's what the deniers are doing: they want to keep this a scientific debate, but it's moved beyond science. Since it's now an empirical fact that climate change is underway, and anthropogenic sources contribute, it has become an ethical debate. We can do something about OUR contribution to the problem, therefore we should.

Denier knowitalls would like to continue nitpicking the details of yesterday's science, or derail with unrelated subjects like Gleick. But many of the predictions of the '90s are emerging realities of the '10s, so we may safely set the deniers concerns aside and move on to the more pressing research needed. How to mitigate and ultimately end our contribution to CO2 forcing, including all of it's known amplifying factors (particulates, deforestation, etc.)?

Clearly, the biggie is sustainable energy. Solar, wind, and whatever else works that doesn't burn petroleum.

Welcome!

Science was never the problem, economics is about the distribution of limited resources, politics is about controlling the economic management of our nation. Even acknowledging the science in full, does not resolve the issues of how and when we as a nation address the issue of AGW.

Sooner rather than later, more rather than less, along with a lot more intensive investigation of all of the involved issues, so that we can have a lot better understanding of the range of investment in time and treasure, it is going to take to minimize our footprint and deal with the consequences while we figure out what the new equilibrium point is gonna be and how to adapt to it.

 

[CapelDodger]

... move on to the more pressing research needed. How to mitigate and ultimately end our contribution to CO2 forcing, including all of it's known amplifying factors (particulates, deforestation, etc.)?

Clearly, the biggie is sustainable energy. Solar, wind, and whatever else works that doesn't burn petroleum.

Fortunately, much of the research has been done, and we're at the position where deployment is the big issue. Deployment promotes and supports industries, industries support research and development.

Even without AGW, renewable energy is clearly the way to go. It still has a lot of inertia to overcome but enlightened companies will emerge on a rising wave. Fossil fuels were the future 200, 100, even 50 years ago, but they are not the future now.

 

[CapelDodger]

Expansion of HVDC grids across the Med will alllow better development of solar, and hopefuly better humidification of North africa. These are dreams of 100 year plus unfortunately.

I put that on a more optimistic timescale myself. I've heard a lot of crackpot schemes in my time but that one actually rings true. It might seem far-fetched with the Arab Spring and the Euro Crisis in our faces, but in a decade or three that will all be history.

 

[CapelDodger]

Science was never the problem, economics is about the distribution of limited resources, politics is about controlling the economic management of our nation. Even acknowledging the science in full, does not resolve the issues of how and when we as a nation address the issue of AGW.

In my nation that issue is certainly unresolved, and the political winds are blowing in the wrong direction, in my opinion. A long-term hosepipe ban in the Home Counties might well see those winds shift, even against Daily Mail blowhards' best efforts.

The thing that's completely lacking is a trans-national approach to AGW, or any credible way of achieving one. The UN is all we've got and all it's provided is the IPCC - a committee to kick the problem down the road, with each IPCC report kicked further away. The UN was conceived to succeed (where the League of Nations had failed) in banning war; wtf chance did it ever have of dealing with a global issue as important as AGW? None, that's what.

 

[Warmer1]

Santorum: 'There Is No Such Thing As Global Warming'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKcZA83HIfU&feature=related

He has a family of seven children which also indicates some lack of insight regarding overpopulation.

One must wonder what the curriculum in a Christian Madrassa might be?

It is amazing that he operates based on unsubstantiated beliefs rather than evidence and science, and yet he can still be considered a contender to run this country? What if he is totally off base regarding extremely serious international matters? Ah yes, he already is, climate change.

There are some interesting videos of glaciers melting at Extreme Ice Survey

http://www.extremeicesurvey.org/

It is predicted to be 77 degrees in North Dakota on Sunday and new records may be set but this can be attributed to the Arctic Oscillation. Temperatures in the central states are 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Also consider the severe drought in Texas at the moment.

Weather is not climate though and Europe is suffering though a very cold winter. It is interesting to see the swings in severe heat and cold in the northern hemisphere.

 

[Mikemcc]

I put that on a more optimistic timescale myself. I've heard a lot of crackpot schemes in my time but that one actually rings true. It might seem far-fetched with the Arab Spring and the Euro Crisis in our faces, but in a decade or three that will all be history.

The HVDC schemes do seem to be coming on link. There's a new link planned for the uK west coast linking Hunterston and Connah's Quay (http://www.westernhvdclink.co.uk/), to be operational in 2015. But that is intended simply to work as an interconnector. Would have been ideal if they planned in methods to connect the proposed wind farms.

 

[Trakar]

Fortunately, much of the research has been done, and we're at the position where deployment is the big issue. Deployment promotes and supports industries, industries support research and development.

Even without AGW, renewable energy is clearly the way to go. It still has a lot of inertia to overcome but enlightened companies will emerge on a rising wave. Fossil fuels were the future 200, 100, even 50 years ago, but they are not the future now.

This is a key point that many corporate welfare shills tend to obscure. Alternative energy sources have been an acknowledged horizon aspect of western civilization's future energy addressments since at least the early seventies. Alternative energy exploration and development would be occurring without AGW, AGW issues are simply a spur to encourage more effort and an accelerated development schedule.

 

[Trakar]

In my nation that issue is certainly unresolved, and the political winds are blowing in the wrong direction, in my opinion. A long-term hosepipe ban in the Home Counties might well see those winds shift, even against Daily Mail blowhards' best efforts.

The thing that's completely lacking is a trans-national approach to AGW, or any credible way of achieving one. The UN is all we've got and all it's provided is the IPCC - a committee to kick the problem down the road, with each IPCC report kicked further away. The UN was conceived to succeed (where the League of Nations had failed) in banning war; wtf chance did it ever have of dealing with a global issue as important as AGW? None, that's what.

One step at a time, until we come up with a national strategies to deal with the issue and demonstrate that we can take care of our own house we have no high ground to negotiate from, after we get this done, then we can start looking at forming the "neighborhood watches" and see about electing a "community council" to coordinate individual efforts and group projects.

 

[Trakar]

Santorum: 'There Is No Such Thing As Global Warming'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKcZA83HIfU&feature=related

He has a family of seven children which also indicates some lack of insight regarding overpopulation.

One must wonder what the curriculum in a Christian Madrassa might be?

It is amazing that he operates based on unsubstantiated beliefs rather than evidence and science, and yet he can still be considered a contender to run this country? What if he is totally off base regarding extremely serious international matters? Ah yes, he already is, climate change.

There are some interesting videos of glaciers melting at Extreme Ice Survey

http://www.extremeicesurvey.org/

It is predicted to be 77 degrees in North Dakota on Sunday and new records may be set but this can be attributed to the Arctic Oscillation. Temperatures in the central states are 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Also consider the severe drought in Texas at the moment.

Weather is not climate though and Europe is suffering though a very cold winter. It is interesting to see the swings in severe heat and cold in the northern hemisphere.

Interesting, but not unexpected.

 

[Piggy]

Weather is not climate though and Europe is suffering though a very cold winter. It is interesting to see the swings in severe heat and cold in the northern hemisphere.

Yes, and this gets a lot of bystanders confused, of course.

Climate change models, as I'm sure you know, predict greater volatility as well as long-term warming.

Just like a volatile stock market can be on an up or down trend, but still have greater highs and lows than a less volatile market on a horizontal trend.

When the dips come, the deniers cry "Cooling trend!" and when the spikes come they cry "Natural variation!"

 

[UnrepentantSinner]

Rachel Maddow had Sen. Inhofe on tonight to discuss his anti-AGW book and I was a bit disappointed in how she conducted the interview. He basically walked all over her by filibustering and ignoring the science instead talking about the news reporting of "Climategate", etc.

 

[Warmer1]

Trackar
"Interesting, but not unexpected."

Piggy
"Climate change models, as I'm sure you know, predict greater volatility as well as long-term warming."

Yes, so true!

I should have mentioned that I was considering the dome of warm air that forms over the open water in the Arctic, which is a new phenomenon and given the hypothesis that the warm air dome potentially effects the Arctic Oscillation causing cold air to spill out to lower latitudes I was wondering if some kind of new pattern might become evident. In years when the Arctic oceans are ice free perhaps there will always be one huge area where the cold air spills down over causing an extreme winter with lots of snow, while other areas in the Northern Hemisphere have milder winters?

I wonder if we will be ever be able to predict where the cold air will flow down to? Will this spilling out of the cold air just randomly rotate around the northern hemisphere?, or will it be driven by La-Nina and El-Nino? or be constrained by the Pacific and / or Atlantic ocean circulation patterns? or most likely a combination of many of these factors?

I speculate that there will be a slight lag in the warming in the Arctic for perhaps a few years due to the dip in solar output, and I could be completely wrong about this but that is my gut feeling.

Perhaps in a number of years when the Arctic does not freeze over countries in the northern hemisphere will just have to sit and guess who is going to get pounded with a cold snowy winter, or perhaps we will be able to predict it?

I have pondered similar ideas about the heatwaves that hit Europe then Russia and then the southern US but could not find any reason for the specific hot spots occuring. Texas will be in a world of hurt this summer if it is hot again and they don't get much rain in the western part of the state.

It's hard to believe that a candidate for the presidency of this country that denies climate change is happening could even hope to get elected.

I also wonder when the last denier will post on this forum? The evidence of climate change just seems to be overwhelming now.

At least if we go extinct we will have earned it through our greed and ignorance rather than just being innocent victims.

Have Fun!

 

[Warmer1]

I understand that solar energy fluctuations are not a huge driver of climate change overall but one might expect a temporary lull at the bottom of the cycle and if the economy picks up again the next leg up might be substantial.

I've posted this graph before and it still makes me cringe considering the changes that are underway.

Global energy use is expected to jump 53% by 2035
http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/19/markets/global_energy_use/index.htm

 

[CapelDodger]

Weather is not climate though and Europe is suffering though a very cold winter.

This winter in Europe was actually quite warm. It got cold for a few weeks in February and this was trumpeted by the usual media culprits as a "punishing winter", but where I live we didn't even get a frost before then. Not much rain either, but that's much more of a problem in the Eastern Counties.

 

[uke2se]

This winter in Europe was actually quite warm. It got cold for a few weeks in February and this was trumpeted by the usual media culprits as a "punishing winter", but where I live we didn't even get a frost before then. Not much rain either, but that's much more of a problem in the Eastern Counties.

Has anyone actually tried to play this winter up as unusally cold? In Sweden, our northernmost great river Torne wasn't frozen over Christmas. That hadn't happened "in a man's age" as the yokels up there put it.

 

[lomiller]

Ok I know weather vs climate, but..

Where I live the normal high for this date is -1 deg C. The record high temperature is 11 deg C, or at least it was.

Our current temperature is 20 deg C.

Forecast for tomorrow is for 26 deg C

I've seen record highs broken by a couple degrees but having the record high broken by 15 Deg C is just

 

[CapelDodger]

Has anyone actually tried to play this winter up as unusally cold? In Sweden, our northernmost great river Torne wasn't frozen over Christmas. That hadn't happened "in a man's age" as the yokels up there put it.

I've seen comments referring to a harsh winter in Europe on various denier sites, presumably from US Americans who desperately want to distract themselves from their own (so-called) winter.

 

[BenBurch]

Really warm here in Illinois too.

 

[Trakar]

Ok I know weather vs climate, but..

Where I live the normal high for this date is -1 deg C. The record high temperature is 11 deg C, or at least it was.

Our current temperature is 20 deg C.

Forecast for tomorrow is for 26 deg C

I've seen record highs broken by a couple degrees but having the record high broken by 15 Deg C is just

Speaking of Ireland,...Happy St Patty's Day to one and all, there's a little Irish in us all (whether we like it or not)!

Only thing I dislike about biofuels, they seem a waste of a lot of potential whiskey.