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Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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I made the point about experts "appointed by the media"--and you 1970's is 10 years late. I did mention the 50's and 60's, i swear I did.
So if you young whippersnappers want to lecture me on what they taught in the 50's and 60's, go right ahead.

Heaven forbid. I remember when people used to blame any bad weather on "all them rockets they're sending up". Having got my head around the fact that some adults could believe Jesus and Moses were real this didn't faze me at all. From the child grows the man :).

I admitted that I was mistaken on the number of papers and the general concern over CO2 during that time. I honesty did not know--and neither did a helluvalot of others.
If admitting an error is not good enough for you, and you insist on continuing to attack the position I recall being held in general, the have at it. The keep on attacking when the opponent concedes is one of the major reasons people don't listen to you.
I'm *********** done with it.

I'm sorry if I appeared aggressive, that wasn't my intention. I quite understand your position, and that you'd never blame "all them rockets" for bad weather. In the 50's and 60's apocalyticism was all the rage (for obvious reasons), and an ice age apocalypse was much simpler to convey than a gradual warming one. We grew up with picture-books of ice-age hunters thigh-deep in snow and furs, as did the journalists who projected the image along with "scientists say ..." and not a shred of understanding because they're all frustrated writers who found science hard at school. Almost all, anyway.
 
Utter nonsense. We were not "always" told any such thing.

Most people were told such a thing, by journalists looking to fill column-inches and further their careers.

I think people forget that climate change has only become an issue very recently. There was no particular reason to look further into it when the Cold War, the hot wars around the edge, and rapid economic and social change were far more pressing. It was a deathly-slow news day when climate change hit the front-page. Even the Little Ice Age was only identified long after the event.

Yes, there were a few scientists who authored a few papers about global cooling. This meme about "scientists said this now they say the opposite" is a myth.

Indeed, and it's a handy one for cheap journalism; always popular because it's a catch-all for any kind of denial. Fortunately for us, we're not swayed by such things. If we find something interesting we look into it.
 
I've been keeping tabs on the media reporting of certain things -- and they are definitely out to over-hype and sensationalize things.

Those stolen emails being a prime example. Remember them? They caused quite a spike in media coverage of AGW, even given the proximity of the Copenhagen Word-Fest.
 
Yes, the uber-left has played a role but I think pegging it at "a great deal" is a gross overstatement.

The "nutty liberal community" brought us Cultural Relativism, and is nothing like the uber-left, which is as far from "all ideas are equal" as the uber-right. Neither are liberal in any sense of the word.

While they did ply the conspiracy angle, they never had anything other than a very, very minor media presence to push this meme onto the general public. By contrast, the nutty right community had enormous media presence; money is, indeed, political speech.

It is when politicians are a free-market commodity.
 
I saw this today and wanted to bring it to everybody's attention, it looks like it will be an excellent resource. Published by John Cook (Skeptical Science) and Steve Lewandowsky (Cognitive Science Laboratories - UNWA), the handbook "boils down the psychological research on misinformation into a short, simple summary, intended as a guide for communicators in all areas (not just climate) who encounter misinformation", and will be available free to download at the end of the 6-part blog series at SkS.

Part 1 - Introduction
Debunking myths is problematic. Unless great care is taken, any effort to debunk misinformation can inadvertently reinforce the very myths one seeks to correct. To avoid these “backfire effects”, an effective debunking requires three major elements. First, the refutation must focus on core facts rather than the myth to avoid the misinformation becoming more familiar. Second, any mention of a myth should be preceded by explicit warnings to notify the reader that the upcoming information is false. Finally, the refutation should include an alternative explanation that accounts for important qualities in the original misinformation.

Debunking the first myth about debunking
It’s self-evident that democratic societies should base their decisions on accurate information. On many issues, however, misinformation can become entrenched in parts of the community, particularly when vested interests are involved.1,2 Reducing the influence of misinformation is a difficult and complex challenge.

Cont
 
I saw this today and wanted to bring it to everybody's attention, it looks like it will be an excellent resource. Published by John Cook (Skeptical Science) and Steve Lewandowsky (Cognitive Science Laboratories - UNWA), the handbook "boils down the psychological research on misinformation into a short, simple summary, intended as a guide for communicators in all areas (not just climate) who encounter misinformation", and will be available free to download at the end of the 6-part blog series at SkS.

Indeed!

Its good to see true skeptics begin wrestling the moniker back from the denialist cult that has usurped the title.
 
I'll take my chances in a free economy, whatever it brings, over command and control. Does anyone seriously think that, with the worst of global warming, as long as the economy remained free, we'd somehow end off worse off than people in North Korea?

I think I'd rather live in North Korea as it is now than on Venus as it is now.
 
I think I'd rather live in North Korea as it is now than on Venus as it is now.

Well, humanity is unlikely to be recreating the conditions that led to Venus's current climate state any time soon. However, turning the Amazon basin to more resemble the Sahara, disrupting the ocean food chains and quite possibly killing off of a majority of the species on the planet as well as at least a literal decimation of our own species is more than bad enough for most people.
 
Well, humanity is unlikely to be recreating the conditions that led to Venus's current climate state any time soon. However, turning the Amazon basin to more resemble the Sahara, disrupting the ocean food chains and quite possibly killing off of a majority of the species on the planet as well as at least a literal decimation of our own species is more than bad enough for most people.

You're right, but Beerina did say "the worst of global warming". So I took the extreme example to illustrate what he was saying.
 
I think part of the 'disconnect' is that a lot of people--I'd put myself loosely in this category--think there is global warming at some level, but we also know that "experts" on both sides are lying through their teeth to push whatever political solution they're fond of. It's a bit frustrating to really feel that one has no idea what represents anything like an unbiased source of information.

Clearly, there is warming, and clearly, human activity is causing (at least most) of it. But the proposed solutions seem to be floating abstractions. A "solution" that trims the global economy by 6% to achieve a 1/10th of 1% improvement in amount of warming over the next 40 years seems ridiculous: where will the funding for research and mitigation come from? A "solution" that assumes that the largest polluters don't need to comply (China, USA) is pointless. A "solution" that arbitrarily decides that people who see a chance to escape the poverty that has dogged their families for generations (India, Brazil, Indonesia) must be denied that chance to offset the sins of those who have wealth, is grossly unfair. And so on.

I am not sure what the best solutions to global warming are, but raising awareness--which is happening--and taxing carbon (which is not, sadly) are clearly big players. More research on what, for example, sulfur compounds do is also needed. Roads to cleaner energy that are actually cleaner when you count in things like fertilizer, transportation, etc. are needed. "Clean energy" initiatives that are not just boondoggles to favor constituencies (Solyndra, corn-based ethanol, etc) are needed.

I think the American people are smart enough to understand fairly complex issues, IF they are in fact presented as complex issues and with consistent and well-planned explanations. Trying to fight a war of soundbites is a losing approach.

I tend to favor approaches like tradable carbon credits because they encourage companies to find the biggest reduction "bang" for their buck, thus pushing the known solutions onto the known sources of pollution the fastest. I also favor a five-year phased-in carbon tax on fuels, both for transportation AND power generation: with a predictable timeline on when and how much the cost will rise, users and companies have a chance and motivation to invest in cleaner solutions. Given the current economic straits the world is in, starting that phase-in may have to be scheduled for say 2014, but as long as the tax will occur (and the markets believe that) it will start showing results incrementally.

While we're at it, how about the disconnect that lets people fish species to the brink of extinction, even though that means their own livelihood is destroyed? And that's a problem with an impact measured in years, not decades...

Just my thoughts, MK
 
I think part of the 'disconnect' is that a lot of people--I'd put myself loosely in this category--think there is global warming at some level, but we also know that "experts" on both sides are lying through their teeth to push whatever political solution they're fond of. It's a bit frustrating to really feel that one has no idea what represents anything like an unbiased source of information.

Clearly, there is warming, and clearly, human activity is causing (at least most) of it. But the proposed solutions seem to be floating abstractions. A "solution" that trims the global economy by 6% to achieve a 1/10th of 1% improvement in amount of warming over the next 40 years seems ridiculous: where will the funding for research and mitigation come from? A "solution" that assumes that the largest polluters don't need to comply (China, USA) is pointless. A "solution" that arbitrarily decides that people who see a chance to escape the poverty that has dogged their families for generations (India, Brazil, Indonesia) must be denied that chance to offset the sins of those who have wealth, is grossly unfair. And so on.

I am not sure what the best solutions to global warming are, but raising awareness--which is happening--and taxing carbon (which is not, sadly) are clearly big players. More research on what, for example, sulfur compounds do is also needed. Roads to cleaner energy that are actually cleaner when you count in things like fertilizer, transportation, etc. are needed. "Clean energy" initiatives that are not just boondoggles to favor constituencies (Solyndra, corn-based ethanol, etc) are needed.

I think the American people are smart enough to understand fairly complex issues, IF they are in fact presented as complex issues and with consistent and well-planned explanations. Trying to fight a war of soundbites is a losing approach.

I tend to favor approaches like tradable carbon credits because they encourage companies to find the biggest reduction "bang" for their buck, thus pushing the known solutions onto the known sources of pollution the fastest. I also favor a five-year phased-in carbon tax on fuels, both for transportation AND power generation: with a predictable timeline on when and how much the cost will rise, users and companies have a chance and motivation to invest in cleaner solutions. Given the current economic straits the world is in, starting that phase-in may have to be scheduled for say 2014, but as long as the tax will occur (and the markets believe that) it will start showing results incrementally.

While we're at it, how about the disconnect that lets people fish species to the brink of extinction, even though that means their own livelihood is destroyed? And that's a problem with an impact measured in years, not decades...

Just my thoughts, MK

You are talking mostly about political impressions concerning policy issues. If you first focus on the science and understand and accept the basics there, you will find that the policy options are fairly narrowly constrained. There is certainly some range of discussion within bounds of effective policy addressment, but the known and demonstrable science, itself, eliminates much of the discussion that most of those busy looking for political points would rather have.
 
Hi.

I'm wondering about this: Why does it seem there's such a huge disconnect between scientists and the public concerning belief in the existence of human-caused global warming? And it looks to be getting bigger -- the scientific evidence continues to mount, while the public sinks deeper and deeper into denial. What's going on?

Personally I think the politicising of the issue has a lot to do with this - people think that it's being used as a political tool in order to add further taxes onto society, and they don't trust the politicians to tell us the truth.
 
Don't assume that the posters on conservative Internet forums speak for the public at large. I realize there is probably poll data as well, but Net forums by their nature seem to attract a lot of negativity. I can't say all trolls are right-wing but ... let's say the right wing is generously represented and those folks will leave comments on mainstream media stories reporting on science. A lot of people just read the story and move on, you know?

I never quite believe poll data either. When it comes down to it I think people realize we must be having an effect. Even if the warming is natural, it makes sense to curb carbon emissions. I'm not sure the American public at large is as polarized as it seems.
 
Hi.

I'm wondering about this: Why does it seem there's such a huge disconnect between scientists and the public concerning belief in the existence of human-caused global warming? And it looks to be getting bigger -- the scientific evidence continues to mount, while the public sinks deeper and deeper into denial. What's going on?

Dear mike3,

Something about the "we must shut down industrial society in order to save the polar bears" meme, is what I think is jamming the signals.

Cpl Ferro
 
Dear mike3,

Something about the "we must shut down industrial society in order to save the polar bears" meme, is what I think is jamming the signals.

Cpl Ferro

Except beyond a few nutters, who is saying that?

The thing that is "jamming the signals" is very simple, a concerted, relentless disinformation campaign to "teach the controversy", when there is no scientific controversy.

It's just like the anti-scientific truth-haters who push creationism by "teaching the controversy".
 
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