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Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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It's University, it's expected that if you don't know something you grab a book and learn it. Stats isn't that difficult. Here's the degree requirements:

http://web4.uwindsor.ca/units/registrar/calendars/undergraduate/Fall2011.nsf/982f0e5f06b5c9a285256d6e006cff78/554c1e8252fbce8685257722006d2694!OpenDocument

No stats course listed (stats is denoted by the 65 prefix). Which somewhat surprising, the calendar I fell under required us to take the equivalent of 65-250. Most of which was a refresher from high school. Perhaps they don't teach it in high school in the US?

Mathematically, statistics and probabilities is a rather simple blending of advanced algebra and derivative calculus principals. In practice and application it seems to give both science majors and many math majors all sorts of fits. Personally, I took 2 semesters of calculus and a semester each of stats/probabilities and multivariate analysis in high school. But I went to a private Catholic preparatory school back in the late 50s, so I really can't speak to what is currently being offered in US public schools.

Really? Most people familiar with ongoing commissioned studies would immediately realize Employment and Earnings was first commissioned in 1979 and this is the 37th volume of this report.

I'd still be curious about the referenced date. In general, with ongoing studies it is appropriate to cite the date of the volume quoted, not the date when the study was initiated.

Sure, whatever. This is a lot of hand waving instead of just admitting the poll we are talking in no way comes close to representing "the entire scientific community". It's such an absurd statement.

I thought you just said statistics was high school simple, and yet you seem to lack the most basic understandings of minimal sample size calculations?

You may want to read that again for comprehension, it clearly states otherwise. I have no problem indulging you in your fantasy, but at your time and your expense.

your assertion, your supporting evidence, your time and your dime, why should I pay and exert effort to support your claims?

Nonsense. In fact, in this very thread we've cited letters from long standing members of similar organizations who have expressed a great deal of dissatisfaction with the organization for supporting the pseudoscience from the climate change camp.

extreme outliers are insignificant and of little merit in the consideration of such issues.
 
Mathematically, statistics and probabilities is a rather simple blending of advanced algebra and derivative calculus principals. In practice and application it seems to give both science majors and many math majors all sorts of fits. Personally, I took 2 semesters of calculus and a semester each of stats/probabilities and multivariate analysis in high school. But I went to a private Catholic preparatory school back in the late 50s, so I really can't speak to what is currently being offered in US public schools.

There's actually more to learn in physics since 1950, certainly more important to the program than stats. It stands to reason that stats would be dropped in favor of more applicable course content. But I'm speculating, I just know they don't have courses on stats because it's either covered in the lecture or you're expected to know it.


I'd still be curious about the referenced date. In general, with ongoing studies it is appropriate to cite the date of the volume quoted, not the date when the study was initiated.

If I were curious I would take 2 seconds to Google it and find vol.37 was published in 2001, which is consistent with the quote. I would not give 1979 a second thought unless I was trying to hand wave and divert attention from some ridiculously erroneous statement. Instead of addressing the fact that the 2500 climate scientists actually represent 1/10th of 1% of "the entire scientific community" just in the US, we're going on about MLA formatting.

I thought you just said statistics was high school simple, and yet you seem to lack the most basic understandings of minimal sample size calculations?

The claim is so ridiculous it's not worth examining seriously.

your assertion, your supporting evidence, your time and your dime, why should I pay and exert effort to support your claims?

It was your claim and your demand for evidence actually. If you stand behind your claims then you must be prepared to support them. The burden of proof shifts as the claim become more and more ridiculous.

If you've been to University you know that the only acceptable proof of a degree and convocation is sealed and embossed official transcripts.

extreme outliers are insignificant and of little merit in the consideration of such issues.

You mean like 1/10th of 1%? That kind of "outlier"? :rolleyes:
 
I'm starting to look into using air pressure as a means of energy storage for a large solar installation so power that is generated in off peak hours can be sold during peak times of energy use.

Does anyone have any helpful information or links to information?

TIA
 
Instead of addressing the fact that the 2500 climate scientists actually represent 1/10th of 1% of "the entire scientific community" just in the US, we're going on about MLA formatting.
Why do you think that what non-climate scientists may think about Global Warming is relevant? Scientists in non-related fields are essentially just laymen.

It reminds me about how creationists are presenting the views of dentists and other irrelevant scientists as being important critics of evolution!
 
I'm starting to look into using air pressure as a means of energy storage for a large solar installation so power that is generated in off peak hours can be sold during peak times of energy use.

Does anyone have any helpful information or links to information?

TIA

http://douglas-self.com/MUSEUM/TRANSPORT/comprair/comprair.htm

That is the history of compressed air power with respect to vehicles.

As you will learn, it is a technique that does work but has some limitations, the biggest of which is thermal inefficiency.
 
Why do you think that what non-climate scientists may think about Global Warming is relevant? Scientists in non-related fields are essentially just laymen.

I wouldn't go that far there are many scientists that have little to do with anything involved in the actual science of climate change that have very relevent scientific considerations and contributions to make with regards to the discussion of global warming.

Members of the APA/BPS/CPA, economists, and many other fields have a role to play, for instance:

Psychology's Essential Role in Alleviating the Impacts of Climate Change
http://www.psych.yorku.ca/davidw/courses/3450P/documents/Gifford.pdf

Psychology and Global Climate Change:
Addressing a Multi-faceted Phenomenon and Set of Challenges
A Report by the American Psychological Association’s Task Force on the
Interface Between Psychology and Global Climate Change
http://www.apa.org/science/about/publications/climate-change.aspx

Micromotives in Global Environmental Policy
http://uwacadweb.uwyo.edu/Shogren/jaysho/MicroMotives.pdf

EXPERIENCE-BASED AND DESCRIPTION-BASED PERCEPTIONS
OF LONG-TERM RISK: WHY GLOBALWARMING DOES NOT
SCARE US (YET)
http://www.cred.columbia.edu/pdfs/publications/Weber_ClimaticChange2006.pdf

A Reason to Believe: Examining the Factors that Determine Individual Views
on Global Warming
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Fi...rabe_borick/07_global_warming_rabe_borick.pdf

It reminds me about how creationists are presenting the views of dentists and other irrelevant scientists as being important critics of evolution!

Well, I'm not going to say that a dentist might not have an intelligent perspective to share on evolution, but in the end it isn't the dentist's medical training that is at issue, it is the statement he makes and the evidence he provides in support of that statement that are the important and relevent issues.
 
I'm starting to look into using air pressure as a means of energy storage for a large solar installation so power that is generated in off peak hours can be sold during peak times of energy use.

Does anyone have any helpful information or links to information?

TIA

Stuff like this?

Energy Geo-Storage − Analysis and Geomechanical Implications
http://www.prism.gatech.edu/~cpasten3/KSCE2.pdf

Compressed Air Energy Storage
http://www.sandia.gov/ess/docs/pr_conferences/2010/laflash_pge.pdf

Pumped storage plants–Status and perspectives
http://www.vennemann-online.de/papers/Vennemann2011.pdf
 
There's actually more to learn in physics since 1950, certainly more important to the program than stats. It stands to reason that stats would be dropped in favor of more applicable course content. But I'm speculating, I just know they don't have courses on stats because it's either covered in the lecture or you're expected to know it.

That seriously is the way you feel about the issue? and you pursued a degree in physics, why? As mentined before I'm not talking about what you "cover in a lecture," that largely stops mattering much in your first couple of undergrad courses. Its about understanding the results of your experiments, characterizing and performing your own research, and most importantly, properly understanding the work of others. I'm not talking about esoteric statistical theory here, just good solid analysis and comprehensive application.

...Instead of addressing the fact that the 2500 climate scientists actually represent 1/10th of 1% of "the entire scientific community" just in the US, we're going on about MLA formatting.

APA is the preferred scientific formatting, but more to the point, you seem to again be making the types of errors in comprehension that someone with even a HS level grasp of statistics wouldn't make. 2500 scientists is many times over the sample size to provide a very high confidence assessment of the population of global scientists given an overall population size of (according to the AAAS) ~6,000,000 scientists.

The claim is so ridiculous it's not worth examining seriously.

and yet you continually seem to demonstrate a lack of the basic skills and understandings that should be inherent to any basic university degree in physics.

It was your claim and your demand for evidence actually.

it was your claim:
...I think you forget I have an undergrad in physics, global warming or more importantly the effect of CO2 on Earth's temperature is pretty simple stuff. More CO2 in the atmosphere means more heat trapped...

If you stand behind your claims then you must be prepared to support them.

I fully agree,...support your claims or withdraw them.

If you've been to University you know that the only acceptable proof of a degree and convocation is sealed and embossed official transcripts.

I know that even if I received a sealed and embossed offical transcript from some university that I couldn't prove that it was your transcript. But the point is that if you make claims and base your arguments upon personal expertise, it is up to you to provide the evidence that compellingly supports those claims and arguments. The burden of proof lies with those who make the claim. My calling you on your assertions does not shift that burden to me.

You mean like 1/10th of 1%? That kind of "outlier"? :rolleyes:

Again, a HS student in a basic Statistics and Probabilities class should understand the difference between an appropriate population sample size and data point outliers,...and yet you still seem to be conflating and confusing these very different but elementary concepts.
 
I wouldn't go that far there are many scientists that have little to do with anything involved in the actual science of climate change that have very relevent scientific considerations and contributions to make with regards to the discussion of global warming.
But the issue in this case is what constitutes "scientific consensus" about global warming? Furcifer thinks that all the world's climate scientists would only make up a tiny fraction of what is necessary for consensus. I would think that even though we do not need to limit ourselves to climate scientists, we would still need only to consider the opinion of scientists that have done the effort of acquainting themselves with the research, and that would, I believe, be still be a tiny fraction of all the world's scientists.

Well, I'm not going to say that a dentist might not have an intelligent perspective to share on evolution, but in the end it isn't the dentist's medical training that is at issue, it is the statement he makes and the evidence he provides in support of that statement that are the important and relevent issues.
Correct, but that is also the case with people with no education at all. The dentist may have relevant and important points to make, but not because he is a dentist.
 
Thanks for the links Trakar!

My ideas are not good but I'm hoping that throwing out some poor ideas might somehow spark better ideas that might in some way be helpful on a global scale.

Someone needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat at this point.

I really enjoyed listening to James Hansen speak during an interview in New Zealand. A number of younger people that understand what is happening asked questions at the end of the session.

The video had 23 views on YouTube - sheesh!
 
GLOBAL WARMING; the extent of the consensus

As far as I know no national academy of science has collectively voiced any fundamental disagreement about the recent claim of the Royal Society.

“It is certain that increased greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and from land use change lead to a warming of climate, and it is very likely that these green house gases are the dominant cause of the global warming that has been taking place over the last 50 years.”



Very few of our beliefs can be grounded in direct knowledge. I believe in man-made climate change because I also believe that about 97 percent of expert climatologists believe in it. I believe that particular number because I believe the findings of expert sociologists. Sociology is not an esoteric mathematical science, however, and it is more easily infected by ideology than is, say, geology; it can be discussed by the layman without too much specialised knowledge.

According to Anderegg , Prall and Schneider, Expert Credibility in Climate Change, wherein expertise is measured by the number of peer reviewed publications and citations, no more than three percent of the experts, as defined, are in radical disagreement with the consensus

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.full.pdf+html

For some names among the three percent see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tific_assessment_of_global_warming#cite_note-

I shall not discuss climate change, a subject about which I am even less qualified to talk than you are, gentle reader. I merely want to establish the extent of the current expert consensus, while recognising that in principle any expert consensus might one day be displaced. Has there been any lucid and cogent critique of Anderegg et al?
 
I shall not discuss climate change, a subject about which I am even less qualified to talk than you are, gentle reader. I merely want to establish the extent of the current expert consensus, while recognising that in principle any expert consensus might one day be displaced. Has there been any lucid and cogent critique of Anderegg et al?

Not a shred. The whole consensus issue is pure displacement activity.

This is what the denial cult has been reduced to, rather earlier than I predicted. Even the occasional foray into science is less than half-hearted. They're spent, and they know things aren't going to get any better.

They're at the "eating their own" stage in a big way after the BEST results. They must have had such hopes for that, but yet another disappointment.
 
Not a shred. The whole consensus issue is pure displacement activity.

This is what the denial cult has been reduced to, rather earlier than I predicted. Even the occasional foray into science is less than half-hearted. They're spent, and they know things aren't going to get any better.

They're at the "eating their own" stage in a big way after the BEST results. They must have had such hopes for that, but yet another disappointment.

To be fair, however, only a small fraction of those typically shunted into the "denialist" category (at least in recent years) actually deny either warming or human culpability in that warming. For the last several years the focus of delay has been more about current and future rates and degrees of warming and level of harm inherent to those projections vs the economic costs/benefits of changing the culpable behavior and ameliorating the damages.
 
Thanks for the links Trakar!

My ideas are not good but I'm hoping that throwing out some poor ideas might somehow spark better ideas that might in some way be helpful on a global scale.

The problem isn't in the ideas, its more a problem of trying to turn every issue into a particular square hole so that our preferred square peg will fill it.

I think we need to move beyond singlet solutions to problems and realize that each community, as well as most individuals, are going to face different aspects of the problem and need some freedom of choice and action in finding their individual best response to the problems caused by the aspects they face. A small rural town in southern Arizona (or central Mexico) is going to face a whole different set of issues than a major metropolis in northern Illinois (or central Canada). I think we need hundreds of solutions that can be integrated and implemented globally to help us deal with these problems we face over the coming centuries.

Someone needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat at this point.

As Bullwinkle suggested perhaps it isn't the "someone" so much as the "hats" we are using!
;)
((http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRW7pITY5Cg))


I really enjoyed listening to James Hansen speak during an interview in New Zealand. A number of younger people that understand what is happening asked questions at the end of the session.

The video had 23 views on YouTube - sheesh!

I wouldn't judge the interest of a generation based upon a single youtube viewership rating, but there is much to be done with regards to informing and educating all generations, and this is definitely an issue that is and will impact people of all generations.

Keep up the good work and always challenge yourself as well as others.
 
To be fair, however, only a small fraction of those typically shunted into the "denialist" category (at least in recent years) actually deny either warming or human culpability in that warming. For the last several years the focus of delay has been more about current and future rates and degrees of warming and level of harm inherent to those projections vs the economic costs/benefits of changing the culpable behavior and ameliorating the damages.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kübler-Ross_model#Stages

This is stage three.
 
To be fair, however, only a small fraction of those typically shunted into the "denialist" category (at least in recent years) actually deny either warming or human culpability in that warming. For the last several years the focus of delay has been more about current and future rates and degrees of warming and level of harm inherent to those projections vs the economic costs/benefits of changing the culpable behavior and ameliorating the damages.

In the main denier meeting-halls such as WattsUpMyButt, McIntyre's and Curry's blogs, Planet Murdoch, and anywhere else the swivel-eyed viscount appears the denier masses are still denying global warming of any variety. The same goes for politicians in the US, Canada, Australia and the farther-right reaches in European (I'll include UKIP in Europe, just to annoy them). We don't see much of it on this forum anymore, but then the Liberal Authoritarian Conspiracy is strong in these parts. (We should know, we're part of it. Just ask mhaze.)

You're correct that some of the cult leaders are denying that they're denying it any more (or ever did, or that anybody ever did), but in their comfort-zones they mostly keep feeding their flocks with that old-time religion. Curry's terminally dazed and confused efforts to find a "pause" (by some definition) are part of that. I'm sure there's still much amusement to be wrung from this subject while we still have leisure to enjoy it.
 
But the issue in this case is what constitutes "scientific consensus" about global warming? Furcifer thinks that all the world's climate scientists would only make up a tiny fraction of what is necessary for consensus. I would think that even though we do not need to limit ourselves to climate scientists, we would still need only to consider the opinion of scientists that have done the effort of acquainting themselves with the research, and that would, I believe, be still be a tiny fraction of all the world's scientists.

What I think is if you want to say there's consensus among climate scientists about the observed warming over the last 150 years, then there's nothing stopping you.
However, that's by no means "the entire scientific community". Saying it is is a deliberate con job. It's hyperbole intended to mislead people.

The issue of how relevant the opinion is from other areas of science isn't without merit. I'm not sure how much weight I would give to the opinion of the computer science community. Considerably less I'm sure.
 
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