Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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Of what the many others are doing, how have their great sacrifices affected them economically and how have they significantly affected CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere? Name a few others so I can edify myself.

People in most of Europe, Japan, China and most of the worlds industrial powers emit half as much CO2 per person as the US. If they emitted as much as the US, atmospheric CO2 concentrations would be rising much faster than the current 2ppm per year and we would be approaching the 450 - 500 ppm threshold of very serious problems. We are just under 400 ppm now.

This range gives us 2-3 degrees of warming and makes is warmer than any time in the last several million years.
 
Since nobody bothered to check, I know pixel is having a bit of fun at your expense.
No I'm not.

The thirty year trend for Illinois isn't +.6 per decade.
Yes it is.

That is what makes it so damn funny. Nobody bothered to check.
I checked.

My guess is that you are changing the start and end year in the table on the left but neglecting to do so for the table on the right. The parameters on the left set the data used for the display, the parameters on the right set the data used for the calculation of the trend.

ETA: Just to spell out how I've set every settable parameter to get a 30 year warming trend of 0.6F for Illinois.

On the left:

Parameter: Temperature
Time scale: 3 month
Month: February
Start year: 1984
End Year: 2013
State/Region/Ag belt: Illinois
Climate Divison/City: Statewide

On the right:

Display base period: start 1985, end 1913
Display trend: ticked
Per decade: selected
Start: 1984
End: 2013

Then press "Plot" button.

You get a graph titled "Illinois, temperature, December-February" which actually shows data starting a little before 1984 but shows a blue trend line only for 1984-2013. The key for the blue trend line (to the left, just underneath the title) says: 1984-2013 trend +0.6F/decade

The trend for Dec-Feb for the state of Illinois, for 1913-2013 is -.5 (per century)
This, interestingly, is correct. But if you set the full range of data (1895-2013) for the per century trend you get a warming of 0.8F per century.
 
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, how have their great sacrifices affected them economically and how have they significantly affected CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere?

Why do you think there are sacrifices.....Sweden is well on it's way to a carbon neutral industrial society and not bad place to live at all. Stop embedding crappy myths about economic catastrophe in your comments. All you do is come across as a troll.

A LEEDS platinum building costs about 7% more than a standard building of the same size and has a very rapid ROI afgter which energy costs are much much lower...is that a sacrifice....no, it's good management.

Some get it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmkM0q-1Xsw

There are thousands of businesses that have taken the view that sustainable and profitable are not in the least at odds.
 
We are discussing the trend towards colder winters, and your response is "Almost every scientist in the field agrees about these climate changes". You made a claim, I asked you to show us how you know this.

Of course you have no evidence, much less actually know what "Almost every scientist in the field" knows, doesn't know, or agrees on. It's actually an impossible claim you made, and your evasion is obvious, and expected.

You can't prove what you said, or even explain how anyone would know this, much less how you would know. It's not like the temperature records, which show clear trends, and anyone can look at. What you claimed is impossible to know, much less prove to anyone.

As for the winters, well, it's damn funny considering how Mother Nature herself seems to be making fools out of everyone insisting the winters are getting warmer.

What's even more interesting than the colder winters, is what is happening in spring and summer.

Yeah, thanks for proving my point for me.
 
do you have evidence for the hilited parts?

from what i know those claims are wrong.
http://www.pnas.org/content/105/36/13252.full

Comparatively recent research based on density (as opposed to width) of tree rings has indicated that the Roman climate was warmer than previously thought.

Original abstract : http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n12/full/nclimate1589.html

New Scientist Article: http://www.newscientist.com/article...gest-roman-world-was-warmer-than-thought.html

Register article: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/07/10/global_warming_undermined_by_study_of_climate_change/

Quote from the Register article:

The new study indicates that that's quite wrong, with the current warming less serious than the Romans and others since have seen - and the overall trend actually down by a noticeable 0.3°C per millennium, which the scientists believe is probably down to gradual long-term shifts in the position of the Sun and the Earth's path around it.

"This figure we calculated may not seem particularly significant," says Esper. "However, it is also not negligible when compared to global warming, which up to now has been less than 1°C. Our results suggest that the large-scale climate reconstruction shown by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) likely underestimate this long-term cooling trend over the past few millennia."

edited to add......

I'm not in a position to say whether the Register article draws conclusions that aren't really supported by the original research. I'm also not saying that the research is correct or the conclusions drawn from it are correct, just that the research exists.
 
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The shenanigans with the NOAA data over the last few pages at least proves one thing for certain: if you are suitably selective in your choice of area and time period you can demonstrate any "trend" you fancy.

The moral is that if you want to find out if there really are genuine underlying trends in climate you need to calculate them using data covering both long time periods and large areas. Otherwise what you are looking at is weather, not climate, and weather can vary enormously, trends or no trends.

I for one am not dismissing the possibility that the unusually cold spells in winter in certain areas over the last decade are an indication of a trend towards cooler winters in those specific areas, though I'd need at least 20 more years of data before I'd be willing to call it a trend. How long-lived such a trend, if it does really exist, is likely to be is probably impossible to predict as it depends on what happens to the jet stream as the world (especially the Arctic) warms, and our regional models simply aren't yet good enough to predict that with any certainty.

But regardless of regional variations the evidence that the world as a whole is warming and will continue to do so, reaching an average temperature roughly 3 degrees above that of the pre-industrial era by the end of this century, remains overwhelming.
 
Comparatively recent research based on density (as opposed to width) of tree rings has indicated that the Roman climate was warmer than previously thought.

Original abstract : http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n12/full/nclimate1589.html

New Scientist Article: http://www.newscientist.com/article...gest-roman-world-was-warmer-than-thought.html

Register article: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/07/10/global_warming_undermined_by_study_of_climate_change/

Quote from the Register article:



edited to add......

I'm not in a position to say whether the Register article draws conclusions that aren't really supported by the original research. I'm also not saying that the research is correct or the conclusions drawn from it are correct, just that the research exists.

aah the esper study, yeah the deniers runned with it a few weeks when it was new, but dropped it soon because it was pointed out to them that the study deals with "northern Scandinavia" and not with global temperatures.
 
Comparatively recent research based on density (as opposed to width) of tree rings has indicated that the Roman climate was warmer than previously thought.

Original abstract : http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n12/full/nclimate1589.html

[un-necessary links removed]

I'm not in a position to say whether the Register article draws conclusions that aren't really supported by the original research. I'm also not saying that the research is correct or the conclusions drawn from it are correct, just that the research exists.

Thanks for that, very interesting research.

This use of the tree ring density proxy seem to correlate very well with the ice and lake proxies, and not so well with all the others. It will be interesting to see how this will affect previous reconstructions, and if the effect is noticeable in trees away from lake shores.

The newspaper quote seems like a stretch, since the results of the reconstruction are just for a relatively small area. But I tend to not believe in newspaper quotes, when it comes to Science.

It should be relatively simple to check for discontinuities in the permafrost cores of areas close to the ones of this study. At the least the organic carbon for the Roman period should be much lower, or - if it was really so much warmer than now - there should be a discontinuity caused by melting and runoff. I am not aware of any such discontinuities, but I'm not very up-to-dae in the literature, and people might have not be looking in the right places to begin with.

It will also be interesting to see the this new use of the TRD used in databases of trees away from lakes and lake shores. This TRD has been collected for some time now, so I'm curious to see if the discrepancy with the traditional uses.
 
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Actually, the claims have been "winters are getting warmer", "global warming predicts warmer winters", and "winter warming is the greatest".

When somebody reports the winters are getting colder, which I posted multiple links to, including Hansen himself, and papers are being published to try and explain this, it's not my claim.

Even so, I tend to look for myself. Which is why I am so confident, I already looked at the data, and with data opinion isn't an issue. You don't get to have a belief about how cold it is, or how long meter is. It's a matter of fact.

Since nobody bothered to check, I know pixel is having a bit of fun at your expense. The thirty year trend for Illinois isn't +.6 per decade. That is what makes it so damn funny. Nobody bothered to check.

Even more mirth comes from looking at the 100 year record. The trend for Dec-Feb for the state of Illinois, for 1913-2013 is -.5 (per century)

1913-2013 is -.5 (per century)
1911-2011 is -.7 (this is F, which the US still uses)

However, it's not quite fair to use Dec-Feb, as that isn't actually winter, and one thing we do know, is that Spring has been coming sooner (trend), so leaving out the 20 days in March can skew the results.

1911-2011 Jan-Mar is 0 No trend.

Just to be sure, Nov-Jan, 0 No trend

But what about the colder winters? There must be a way to see if winters actually are trending down.

January! it's all winter. Same for February.

January 1911-2011 -1.5
February 1911-2011 - .2

For good measure, December is -.5

Oh goodness. How can you argue with data? Oh yes. You can say we should use 1913-2013 instead. Doesn't matter a bit.

UM, per century would mean you have more that one century, so you can not really show a per century trend. You can say that over this hundred year period...

And it seems to me that if you look at this
http://www.il-acad-sci.org/transactions_pdf_files/97.12.pdf

On the page marked as 112 fig. 2B it shows that in fact which hundred year block you look at matters, 1900-2000 shows warming, 1904 to 1994 shows equal, and that is just looking at the points as opposed to a sliding average, but this is just the variation from teh mean in.

If we look at pg 113 fig. 3 a the hundred year trend tends to show warming, only because we don't have 1889 to compare to 1980.

And so it goes, so what length of trends you discuss is important.
 
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People in most of Europe, Japan, China and most of the worlds industrial powers emit half as much CO2 per person as the US. If they emitted as much as the US, atmospheric CO2 concentrations would be rising much faster than the current 2ppm per year and we would be approaching the 450 - 500 ppm threshold of very serious problems. We are just under 400 ppm now.

This range gives us 2-3 degrees of warming and makes is warmer than any time in the last several million years.

Given the population of the US, if the US were to emit what other countries are emitting per capita, how would that affect the global CO2 concentration? Note that China and India are increasing their emissions and likely will for some time.
 
aah the esper study, yeah the deniers runned with it a few weeks when it was new, but dropped it soon because it was pointed out to them that the study deals with "northern Scandinavia" and not with global temperatures.

And even if the study can be extrapolated to show that the earth was warmer 2,000 years ago than it is now it still doesn't alter the fact that global warming could have a profound impact on the current world population (with its current distribution).
 
Given the population of the US, if the US were to emit what other countries are emitting per capita, how would that affect the global CO2 concentration? Note that China and India are increasing their emissions and likely will for some time.

yes they will do so and have good reasons to do so. and yet, both those countries are already doing something to not get to our levels. india for example has a CO2 tax on coal. and are also investing in alternative energy etc.

this is not a reason for us to not do anything but actually a good reason to even increase our efforts. further push energy efficiency, invest in alternative energy expand CO2 taxation etc etc.

what is your problemw ith that?
 
And even if the study can be extrapolated to show that the earth was warmer 2,000 years ago than it is now it still doesn't alter the fact that global warming could have a profound impact on the current world population (with its current distribution).

exactly :)
 
There are a lot of mitigation strategies -- wind and solar where appropriate, nuclear where not, electrified mass-transit infrastructure, etc. But the fact is that deniers such as yourself have made complete avoidance of the problem impossible by stymieing the deployment of such alternative technologies over the last several decades through lies and misinformation about the alleged non-reality of AGW. By doing something now we may temper the problem, but at this point we're committed to 50 years or so of significant warming that we didn't need be, and are screwed any way you look at it. So spare me your whining about my "patronizing comments." Your type has earned my contempt many times over.

Yes, there are a lot of mitigation strategies and your standard answer will certainly reduce atmospheric CO2, for the most part. Electrified mass transit infrastructure powered by something other than fossil fuels will work well where the population density is high. Nuclear power plants, once the bane of the environmentally sensitive, are once more touted. Hydro is a semi-evil, preventing facile fish fornication, gas is now bad because of fracking, biomass requires significant energy to harvest, solar is nice for the southwest US and hopefully no desert life forms will be disturbed by excess shadows, wind power is problematic as a baseload but could be used, geothermal has promise but is likely not going to be significant for a while. If we consider that nuclear plants would solve our problems with CO2 and simultaneously permit production of transportation fuels, we must ask why we aren't building them. One can design such plants to circumvent production of weapons grade materials, so that isn't the problem. There is a mountain that is designated as a safe storage area for wastes, but we aren't using it. In the US, permitting has made nuclear power plant construction practically impossible. The many layers of checklists and agencies to be satisfied [Federal, state and local] are certainly a holdup. If we would like to use our power infrastructure with centralized plants, the US should do what France has done. Approve a standard model power plant design; no more one-offs. We should go for 250-500MW modules that will allow for construction of any size plant in those increments. Licensing can be streamlined to have the Feds override all state and local laws. If a state or community decided not to accept a plant, they would pay an increasing premium for fossil power.
As has been mentioned previously with the LEEDS platinum building construction, the biggest bang for the buck will be conservation which would include LED lights, insulated buildings, fuel efficient vehicles, and others. Chargers and routers would turn off at the primary when not in use. AC would be a heat pump and underground heat reservoir. This last may be costly but as the only approved AC products, there will be no way to circumvent it. Invest in fans.
My "type" that has earned your contempt may not be what you assume it to be and may not have much to do with a "50 year delay." Maybe it is the many environmentalists who want what they want or those like you who are so demonstrably defocused as to be unable to come up with specific solutions that must accept some of the blame.
 
Yes, there are a lot of mitigation strategies and your standard answer will certainly reduce atmospheric CO2, for the most part. Electrified mass transit infrastructure powered by something other than fossil fuels will work well where the population density is high. Nuclear power plants, once the bane of the environmentally sensitive, are once more touted. Hydro is a semi-evil, preventing facile fish fornication, gas is now bad because of fracking, biomass requires significant energy to harvest, solar is nice for the southwest US and hopefully no desert life forms will be disturbed by excess shadows, wind power is problematic as a baseload but could be used, geothermal has promise but is likely not going to be significant for a while. If we consider that nuclear plants would solve our problems with CO2 and simultaneously permit production of transportation fuels, we must ask why we aren't building them. One can design such plants to circumvent production of weapons grade materials, so that isn't the problem. There is a mountain that is designated as a safe storage area for wastes, but we aren't using it. In the US, permitting has made nuclear power plant construction practically impossible. The many layers of checklists and agencies to be satisfied [Federal, state and local] are certainly a holdup. If we would like to use our power infrastructure with centralized plants, the US should do what France has done. Approve a standard model power plant design; no more one-offs. We should go for 250-500MW modules that will allow for construction of any size plant in those increments. Licensing can be streamlined to have the Feds override all state and local laws. If a state or community decided not to accept a plant, they would pay an increasing premium for fossil power.
As has been mentioned previously with the LEEDS platinum building construction, the biggest bang for the buck will be conservation which would include LED lights, insulated buildings, fuel efficient vehicles, and others. Chargers and routers would turn off at the primary when not in use. AC would be a heat pump and underground heat reservoir. This last may be costly but as the only approved AC products, there will be no way to circumvent it. Invest in fans.
My "type" that has earned your contempt may not be what you assume it to be and may not have much to do with a "50 year delay." Maybe it is the many environmentalists who want what they want or those like you who are so demonstrably defocused as to be unable to come up with specific solutions that must accept some of the blame.

once again it seems you are very late to the party. all of this is already being done in many countries. except for the irrational Nuklear fear, that is a holdback indeed, but most are aware of that and it is merely one other problem we have to deal with many believe they can do it without nuklear, most here would disagree with that.

so what is your pont? while you are asking thers for solutions, all the points you bring up are already implemented in many parts of the world.
where have you been the last decade?
 
yes they will do so and have good reasons to do so. and yet, both those countries are already doing something to not get to our levels. india for example has a CO2 tax on coal. and are also investing in alternative energy etc.

this is not a reason for us to not do anything but actually a good reason to even increase our efforts. further push energy efficiency, invest in alternative energy expand CO2 taxation etc etc.

what is your problemw ith that?

I don't have a problem with that. My question was related to the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and the gross sources. How would the US reducing its output of CO2 reflect the total. Providing the CO2 per capita values suits some studies but doesn't indicate totals. If you'd like, you could add in the exhalations of the populace.
 
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