Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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r-j said:
Yes, which is quite scientific. But how do deal with people who simply won't look?

Now the arguments will be shifted to something unrelated, anything to avoid looking at the facts.
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well can you provide facts? haven't seen any from you so far.
 
r-j said:
I really don't understand the inability to read.
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Thanks anyway!

So do you want to discuss the data you did not provide in this post?
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=9097008&postcount=7936

Or was there another one which shows "That winters have been getting colder.

Not just some cold spells, not just extremes, not just a few isolated areas. Stop living in denial about this. "

So is this a long term trend do you think? (The winters getting colder not your rudeness.)

Because if your read the article I linked to from teh Illinois Water Survey, they report that teh recent decadal trend here in Illinois si warming temperatures.

So did you really mean tro stand by your blanket staement above?
 
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r-j said:
I got warning to "Be civil and polite & Address the argument, not the arguer". If only that applied to everyone.

I checked and the AAH posts don't contain the link. I know I linked to a NASA site where Hansen talked about explaining the colder winters in the UK. It's quite possible I am in error, which has nothing to do with climate, climate change, global warming or colder winters.

But by all means, obsess over that. Ignore the science and focus on a person. It's what all real climate scientists do.

Ha

I made myself laugh

For a real world example, somebody mentioned Illinois. That's a pretty good state to check, as it isn't in the south, the west or the northeast US
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You mean the one that shows warming since the 1970s, or the one you provided to support your blanket statement

That winters have been getting colder.

Not just some cold spells, not just extremes, not just a few isolated areas. Stop living in denial about this.
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r-j said:
Try lifting a finger to do some actual work. The NCDC site clearly labels the trend produced, and has two setting. Decade trend and century trend.

The software creates the trend line, based on what time period you choose. It's easy to use, and anyone can do it.

Of course I predicted what you said, just as was expected.
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Just out of curiousity, what does the century trend show?
 
r-j said:
If you were to look out most windows as of this writing, there is a good chance that you would be presented with an image of winter. All around me, winter has sprung, dumping measurable inches of frozen precipitation and snarling the usual habits of work and school as we struggle to cope with its effects on modern life. And more than a few of you might be asking yourself, "What happened to global warming?"

Well, the effects of global warming are all around us. That harsh winter that we are experiencing, it is not proof that global warming is not happening, but rather serves as proof that it is indeed happening, and even a bit faster than we might like to think. It also shows why the phrase "Climate Change" is a better term to describe the effects of man on his environment.

Vladimir Petoukhov, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, has recently completed a study on the effect of climate change on winter. According to Petoukhov,

These anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and northern Asia. Recent severe winters like last year's or the one of 2005-06 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it.

But how does a colder winter support the idea of a warming earth? It's really simple when you look at the evidence.
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http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global-Warming-Cold-Winters.html
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And you might notice that in the first picture there are small regions that are having slightly cooler winters (Northern Europe, some of the Pacific, a bit of Australia and a bit of Antarctica) there are also regions that are a lot hotter than normal: (most of the Arctic and Siberia being 4-10°C warmer than normal whilst the rest of Asia being 2-4°C warmer).


Globally, winters are not getting colder - in some local regions they do seem to be.

ETA: and the link explains this
 
jimbob said:
And you might notice that in the first picture
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What do you mean by "first picture?" http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/NasaChangeMap.gif is a monthly map, and says nothing about climate.much less climate change.

Salmons commentary is quite amusing for many reasons.
Posted on 15 January 2011 by D.Salmons
Guest post by D.Salmons

If you were to look out most windows as of this writing, there is a good chance that you would be presented with an image of winter. All around me, winter has sprung, dumping measurable inches of frozen precipitation and snarling the usual habits of work and school as we struggle to cope with its effects on modern life. And more than a few of you might be asking yourself, "What happened to global warming?"

Well, the effects of global warming are all around us. That harsh winter that we are experiencing, it is not proof that global warming is not happening, but rather serves as proof that it is indeed happening, and even a bit faster than we might like to think. http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global-Warming-Cold-Winters.html
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On the one hand, we hear that weather is not climate. Especially cold weather. But now, because it's simply not possible to ignore weather, the cold weather now has meaning!

That harsh winter that we are experiencing, it is not proof that global warming is not happening, but rather serves as proof that it is indeed happening
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Forget that it's climate change. Forget that weather isn't climate. Forget that one cold winter doesn't mean the warming has stopped.

No, the new message is cold means warming is happening. Yes, it's right there on the most trusted and referenced site for real climate news.

That harsh winter that we are experiencing, it is not proof that global warming is not happening, but rather serves as proof that it is indeed happening

How can anyone question that sort of SkS wisdom? It's really quite something. Either winters are getting warmer, or they are getting colder, either way, it's global warming. You can't argue with that sort of logic.
 
r-j said:
I'm going to take pity on you this time.

Global data
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gcag/app.html
Us data
http://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/map/cag/#app=cdo

When somebody, like Hansen says "the colder winters", he is not saying globally winters are colder everywhere. But you would have to be insane to deny the current trend in winter temperatures.
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Indeed you would, but yet you deny it time after time. The trend is towards warmer winters globally. Every single link you have provided thus far supports this, and yet here you are, waffling about colder winters.
 
r-j said:
Forget that it's climate change. Forget that weather isn't climate. Forget that one cold winter doesn't mean the warming has stopped.

No, the new message is cold means warming is happening. Yes, it's right there on the most trusted and referenced site for real climate news.

That harsh winter that we are experiencing, it is not proof that global warming is not happening, but rather serves as proof that it is indeed happening

How can anyone question that sort of SkS wisdom? It's really quite something. Either winters are getting warmer, or they are getting colder, either way, it's global warming. You can't argue with that sort of logic.
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So you didn't understand a thing in that article. Doesn't surprise me, really, but it's nice to see you once again outing yourself as just another denier who doesn't get it and thus it must be wrong.
 
r-j said:
Show us. If "Almost every scientist in the field" thinks winters are warming, rather than cooling, tell us how you know that.
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Oh, no. I'm not going to go along with your reset button every few days just because you feel like doding questions. It's a well-known and well-documented fact that has been brought to bear time and time again in global warming threads on this forum, so you don't get to claim ignorance.
 
r-j said:
Prove it.
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I love how conspiracy theorists, religious fanatics and other woo-woos everywhere just KNOW how weak their argument is, and show it time and time again by shifting the burden of proof either towards the null hypothesis or towards the well-established one, like it's our job to regurgitate all the data from the last decades of research because the guy who claims it's all wrong can't be bothered to look it up himself, which raises the question of how he came to the conclusion that it's wrong in the first place.
 
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Belz... said:
Almost every scientist in the field agrees about these climate changes.
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We are discussing the trend towards colder winters, and your response is "Almost every scientist in the field agrees about these climate changes". You made a claim, I asked you to show us how you know this.

Of course you have no evidence, much less actually know what "Almost every scientist in the field" knows, doesn't know, or agrees on. It's actually an impossible claim you made, and your evasion is obvious, and expected.

You can't prove what you said, or even explain how anyone would know this, much less how you would know. It's not like the temperature records, which show clear trends, and anyone can look at. What you claimed is impossible to know, much less prove to anyone.

As for the winters, well, it's damn funny considering how Mother Nature herself seems to be making fools out of everyone insisting the winters are getting warmer.

What's even more interesting than the colder winters, is what is happening in spring and summer.
 
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r-j said:
We are discussing the trend towards colder winters,
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There is no such trend. This has been shown time and again in this thread.
Breach of rule 12 removed. Do not insult other posters.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Cuddles
 
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r-j said:
The ignorance is amusing....
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Let us see if you are amused at the ignorance of what you have cited in that post, r-j :D.
Cold Snaps Plus Global Warming Do Add Up is about the winter of 2009 in the US and specific places in the Northern hemisphere.
Local and about weather: No support for your claim that winters are getting colder.

Snow is consistent with global warming, say scientists - "Temperatures for December and January" in the UK.
Local and about weather: No support for your claim that winters are getting colder.

NASA explains how Europe can be so cold amidst the hottest November and hottest year on record
Local and about weather: No support for your claim that winters are getting colder.

Experts: Cold snap doesn't disprove global warming
Local and about weather: No support for your claim that winters are getting colder.

GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
Global and about weather: No support for your claim that winters are getting colder.
The mention of possible future colder winters does not support your claim of winters currently getting colder.

Cold winter in a world of warming?
The mention of possible future colder winters does not support your claim of winters currently getting colder.

Melting sea ice could trigger colder winters
The mention of possible future colder winters does not support your claim of winters currently getting colder.

To support your claim that winters are getting colder, you need to cite the evidence that winters are getting colder :jaw-dropp !
For example global winter temperatures over the last 50 years or more.
 
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r-j said:
If you claim winters are warming, and faster than any other time, just show the data. That's scientific method.
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The scientific method includes that the person making an assertion, e.g. that winters are getting colder, has to provide evidence. So r-j, just show the data that winters over say the last 100 years have become colder.
 
What's even more interesting than the colder winters, is what is happening in spring and summer
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so just what IS happening in spring and summer globally over the last 30 years?
Start with an easy one....Arctic sea ice extent??
Perhaps include net glacial mass change globally.

We'll wait.
 
Actually, the claims have been "winters are getting warmer", "global warming predicts warmer winters", and "winter warming is the greatest".

When somebody reports the winters are getting colder, which I posted multiple links to, including Hansen himself, and papers are being published to try and explain this, it's not my claim.

Even so, I tend to look for myself. Which is why I am so confident, I already looked at the data, and with data opinion isn't an issue. You don't get to have a belief about how cold it is, or how long meter is. It's a matter of fact.

Since nobody bothered to check, I know pixel is having a bit of fun at your expense. The thirty year trend for Illinois isn't +.6 per decade. That is what makes it so damn funny. Nobody bothered to check.

Even more mirth comes from looking at the 100 year record. The trend for Dec-Feb for the state of Illinois, for 1913-2013 is -.5 (per century)

1913-2013 is -.5 (per century)
1911-2011 is -.7 (this is F, which the US still uses)

However, it's not quite fair to use Dec-Feb, as that isn't actually winter, and one thing we do know, is that Spring has been coming sooner (trend), so leaving out the 20 days in March can skew the results.

1911-2011 Jan-Mar is 0 No trend.

Just to be sure, Nov-Jan, 0 No trend

But what about the colder winters? There must be a way to see if winters actually are trending down.

January! it's all winter. Same for February.

January 1911-2011 -1.5
February 1911-2011 - .2

For good measure, December is -.5

Oh goodness. How can you argue with data? Oh yes. You can say we should use 1913-2013 instead. Doesn't matter a bit.
 
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