macdoc
Philosopher
Sure Al- it's not real if it hasn't a "number".
Until you can predict the emissions you can't GET a number. You get a range. Tiresome.
•••
Now how about we perhaps listen to a scientist who does understand the risk offer his assessment.
more
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/scientist-warming-could-cut-population-to-1-billion/
why his INFORMED opinion might be taken with some gravity
This undeniably dire scenario based on the mid range of the MIT risk assessment - NOT the worst case an outcome MIT considers highly likely to occur
Seems the denier coterie has backed into well it's real but it's not so bad turf now and we're really not sure how bad....
Until you can predict the emissions you can't GET a number. You get a range. Tiresome.
•••
Now how about we perhaps listen to a scientist who does understand the risk offer his assessment.
March 13, 2009, 11:33 am
Scientist: Warming Could Cut Population to 1 Billion
By JAMES KANTER
schellnhuberLizette Kabré. Climate congress, Copenhagen 2009. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, spoke several times at the climate conference in Copenhagen.
[UPDATE, 1:45 p.m.: A roundup of economists' and scientists' views at the Copenhagen climate meeting and a reaction from Mike Hulme, a participating scientist.]
COPENHAGEN — A scientist known for his aggressive stance on climate policy made an apocalyptic prediction on Thursay.
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said that if the buildup of greenhouse gases and its consequences pushed global temperatures 9 degrees Fahrenheit higher than today — well below the upper temperature range that scientists project could occur from global warming — Earth’s population would be devastated. [UPDATED, 6:10 p.m: The preceding line was adjusted to reflect that Dr. Schellnhuber was not describing a worst-case warming projection. h/t to Joe Romm.]
“In a very cynical way, it’s a triumph for science because at last we have stabilized something –- namely the estimates for the carrying capacity of the planet, namely below 1 billion people,” said Dr. Schellnhuber, who has advised German Chancellor Angela Merkel on climate policy and is a visiting professor at Oxford.
more
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/scientist-warming-could-cut-population-to-1-billion/
why his INFORMED opinion might be taken with some gravity
1991 Founding Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK); since 1993 Director of PIK and Professor for Theoretical Physics at Potsdam University. 2001-2005 additional engagement as Research Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and Professor at the Environmental Sciences School of the University of East Anglia in Norwich (UK). From 2005 - 2009 Visiting Professor in Physics and Visiting Fellow of Christ Church College at Oxford University as well as Distinguished Science Advisor for the Tyndall Centre. Since 2010 External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.
2002 Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award; 2004 CBE (Commander of the Order of the British Empire) awarded by Queen Elizabeth II; 2007 German Environment Prize; 2008 Order of Merit (“Roter Adlerorden”) of the State of Brandenburg; 2009 "Ambassador of Science" of the State of Brandenburg. Elected Member of the Max Planck Society, the German National Academy (Leopoldina), the US National Academy of Sciences, the Leibniz-Sozietät, the Geological Society of London, and the International Research Society Sigma Xi. Ambassador for the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). Longstanding Member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) who was awarded the Peace Nobel Prize in 2007.
This undeniably dire scenario based on the mid range of the MIT risk assessment - NOT the worst case an outcome MIT considers highly likely to occur
The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees.
Seems the denier coterie has backed into well it's real but it's not so bad turf now and we're really not sure how bad....

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