• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Moderated Global Warming Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
Sure Al- it's not real if it hasn't a "number".
Until you can predict the emissions you can't GET a number. You get a range. Tiresome.

•••

Now how about we perhaps listen to a scientist who does understand the risk offer his assessment.

March 13, 2009, 11:33 am
Scientist: Warming Could Cut Population to 1 Billion
By JAMES KANTER
schellnhuberLizette Kabré. Climate congress, Copenhagen 2009. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, spoke several times at the climate conference in Copenhagen.

[UPDATE, 1:45 p.m.: A roundup of economists' and scientists' views at the Copenhagen climate meeting and a reaction from Mike Hulme, a participating scientist.]

COPENHAGEN — A scientist known for his aggressive stance on climate policy made an apocalyptic prediction on Thursay.

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said that if the buildup of greenhouse gases and its consequences pushed global temperatures 9 degrees Fahrenheit higher than today — well below the upper temperature range that scientists project could occur from global warming — Earth’s population would be devastated. [UPDATED, 6:10 p.m: The preceding line was adjusted to reflect that Dr. Schellnhuber was not describing a worst-case warming projection. h/t to Joe Romm.]
“In a very cynical way, it’s a triumph for science because at last we have stabilized something –- namely the estimates for the carrying capacity of the planet, namely below 1 billion people,” said Dr. Schellnhuber, who has advised German Chancellor Angela Merkel on climate policy and is a visiting professor at Oxford.

more
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/scientist-warming-could-cut-population-to-1-billion/

why his INFORMED opinion might be taken with some gravity

1991 Founding Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK); since 1993 Director of PIK and Professor for Theoretical Physics at Potsdam University. 2001-2005 additional engagement as Research Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and Professor at the Environmental Sciences School of the University of East Anglia in Norwich (UK). From 2005 - 2009 Visiting Professor in Physics and Visiting Fellow of Christ Church College at Oxford University as well as Distinguished Science Advisor for the Tyndall Centre. Since 2010 External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.

2002 Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award; 2004 CBE (Commander of the Order of the British Empire) awarded by Queen Elizabeth II; 2007 German Environment Prize; 2008 Order of Merit (“Roter Adlerorden”) of the State of Brandenburg; 2009 "Ambassador of Science" of the State of Brandenburg. Elected Member of the Max Planck Society, the German National Academy (Leopoldina), the US National Academy of Sciences, the Leibniz-Sozietät, the Geological Society of London, and the International Research Society Sigma Xi. Ambassador for the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). Longstanding Member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) who was awarded the Peace Nobel Prize in 2007.

This undeniably dire scenario based on the mid range of the MIT risk assessment - NOT the worst case an outcome MIT considers highly likely to occur

The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees.

Seems the denier coterie has backed into well it's real but it's not so bad turf now and we're really not sure how bad....:garfield:
 
Last edited:
The web site completely avoids all mention of the fact most of the increase in deaths was because people were not prepared for heat waves and the natural response by humans to more heat waves is to prepare for them. Either get AC or move somewhere else.

Okay sure, so all the people in Chicago who can't afford AC will go to a shelter, check.

But the heat stress to crops can not be compensated for, at least for maize, soybeans you can plant later in teh sean, if there is enough rain. But maize no.

And now we will have rolling balckouts because everyone is running AC? the grid is already at capacity most of the summer in the Midwest.

Your thinking is rather simplistic.
 
Some crops will never tolerate an increase

wheat_america_wheat_416x350.gif


India is really screwed in this respect but the largest change and already in progress will be in hydrology.
Lots more moisture in the atmosphere means changes from frozen penguins due to rain in Antarctica, to Monsoon shifts or increases affecting billions of people to increased snow pack in the mid west creating far more frequent devastating spring floods......the list of hydrology impacts is daunting and is already in play.
 
Some crops will never tolerate an increase

[qimg]http://i106.photobucket.com/albums/m269/macdoc/wheat_america_wheat_416x350.gif[/qimg]

The really interesting thing to me is that the source of this image, Rodomiro Ortiz and the Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maı´z y Trigo are actively developing wheat cultivars and agriculture strategies that will do exactly that [Ortiz et al (2008), Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat?]. That's the problem with data out of context.
 
Okay sure, so all the people in Chicago who can't afford AC will go to a shelter, check.

But the heat stress to crops can not be compensated for, at least for maize, soybeans you can plant later in teh sean, if there is enough rain. But maize no.

And now we will have rolling balckouts because everyone is running AC? the grid is already at capacity most of the summer in the Midwest.

Your thinking is rather simplistic.

My thinking is rather simplistic?

This is getting really old. Buying the AC doesn't have to happen this year, or next year, or next decade. Why don't you go back 50 years and explain to everyone that no city in Arizona will ever have a population over 1 million because there isn't enough water and air conditioning is too expensive.

Heat stress cannot be compensated for? Then why are groups developing cultivars of maize and wheat crops that compensate for heat stress?

We don't have to solve these problems right now. We have to work on them right now. Most of the scientists that put these plans into action haven't even been born yet. The parents of many of those same scientists may not have even been born yet.

You are comparing the capacity of the grid right now and saying it won't change in 50+ years?

And it is *my* thinking that is simplistic?
 
There are plenty of very realistic scenarios, backed up by peer-reviewed science, that are just as alarming as any sensationalist has ever predicted:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives.htm

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Peer-reviewed-impacts-of-global-warming.html

I have already addressed some items in the "positives and negatives" and have shown that their assessment of the science diverges from the actual science. An argument is not "backed up" by peer-reviewed science if that same science doesn't actually say what the argument claims it says.
 
Really because the majority of scientists are concerned for hundreds of millions of the world's poor so you'd better have something to back that up lest you be accused of intellectual laziness and carelessness.

How about the $13 Billion wasted last year on the carbon credit scam? Let's try demanding evidence that the money being spent is actually doing something.
 
My thinking is rather simplistic?

This is getting really old. Buying the AC doesn't have to happen this year, or next year, or next decade. Why don't you go back 50 years and explain to everyone that no city in Arizona will ever have a population over 1 million because there isn't enough water and air conditioning is too expensive.

Heat stress cannot be compensated for? Then why are groups developing cultivars of maize and wheat crops that compensate for heat stress?

We don't have to solve these problems right now. We have to work on them right now. Most of the scientists that put these plans into action haven't even been born yet. The parents of many of those same scientists may not have even been born yet.

You are comparing the capacity of the grid right now and saying it won't change in 50+ years?

And it is *my* thinking that is simplistic?

You seem to be saying that it's OK to breed new kinds of wheat and spend a fortune on new power structures instead of doing the intelligent thing and radically reducing emissions and finding new technology. Is this what you are saying?

After all that back and forth did you finally accept that climatologists aren't the only ones working on the projections?
 
What altitude above sea level is your house?

I believe 70m.

I read in the Beer Store the other day Ontarians returned enough beer bottles to circle the globe 13 times. I figure if we lined them up around the entire country and back filled them we would have a sea wall capable of holding back the next 50 years of sea level increase.

Mitigation.
 
Global warming is (so far as we know) quite real. The media insanity about it as the cause du jour is something quite different. This of course is not coming form the scientists themselves, but from the pundits, as it usually does in most scientific "scares".

The scientists are more disturbed by the changes occurring than the press or pundits.
 
...The more rational skeptical position is that burning fossil fuels has lead to a slight increase in global average temperature...

"Slight"?
if you define that term as "inconsiderable" then you are incorrect.

The amount of temperature rise is both significant and at a rate that is unprecidented in modern history and extremely rare in the history of the planet.
 
... AS LONG AS YOU DON'T ACTUALLY READ THE JOURNAL ARTICLES THEY USE. I went to the "Positives and Negatives" of global warming on that site and the disagreement between what they say the science says and what the actual science says is positively unforgivable...

The only thing "unforgivable" is the manner of your sans contextual cherrypicking and distortions. Science is a cumulative process, snippet sniping is not only inaproppriate, it is disingenuous.
 
3bodyproblem,

This is what I asked you evidence for.

it's probably not going to be the end of the world and it isn't a pressing concern unless you're a polar bear.

And this is what you gave me.

How about the $13 Billion wasted last year on the carbon credit scam? Let's try demanding evidence that the money being spent is actually doing something.

That's not proof of anything, is it? If there are scams and profiteering happening (hard to imagine in this scum infested universe) that should be dealt with. Actually the alarmists are calling for scrutiny as much as anyone else so this is just a horribly weak argument.
 
Expert credibility in climate change
http://www.pnas.org/content/107/27/12107.full

Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers...
 
The People Paradox: Self-Esteem Striving, Immortality Ideologies, and
Human Response to Climate Change
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art34/

INTRODUCTION


Reversing the trajectory of global climate change requires widespread support for policies and incentives that will reduce carbon emissions. Although it is certainly in the world's best interest to promote carbon neutrality, it is not in the material interests of nations or individuals to hinder economic growth (Dyson 2006, Woodward 2008). Given that the link between the use of fossil fuel and economic development is a significant political-economic barrier to restraint, the greatest hope for transformative change may be mobilization of ideological communities toward a ground swell of support for carbon neutrality.

The popularity of environmental education initiatives, including Al Gore's The Climate Project, attests to a belief that increasing awareness helps change individual behavior and promotes advocacy, but there is little real evidence that this is so (Blumstein and Saylan 2008). Although short-term behaviors often shift as a consequence of educational experiences (Kaiser and Fuhrer 2003), the resulting behavioral changes are typically short lived (Dwyer et al. 1993). We must question the assumption that increased knowledge of the dangers will generate a sustained rational response (Janssen and de Vries 1998, Dessai et al. 2004), because even the behavior of conservation biologists, who frequently drive large pickup trucks and four-wheel-drive vehicles, suggests that this is not the case. Behavioral response to the threat of global climate change simply does not match its unique potential for cumulative, adverse, and potentially chaotic outcomes (Dyson 2006).

Despite ample evidence of an inevitable rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide during this century, Dyson (2006:120) argues that "humanity's experience of another difficult 'long' threat—HIV/AIDS—reveals a broadly analogous sequence of human reactions. In short, (i) scientific understanding advances rapidly, but (ii) avoidance, denial, and recrimination characterize the overall societal response, therefore (iii) there is relatively little behavioral change, until (iv) evidence of damage becomes plain." The implication is that only direct experience with adverse outcomes leads to behavioral change, leaving us with the question of why the connection is so flimsy between what we know, what we value, and how we behave.

This question is rooted in the ideas of Ernest Becker, whose work culminated in two companion syntheses: The Denial of Death (1973) and Escape from Evil (1975). Here I expand Becker's cultural and proximate psychological understanding of human behavior to provide new insights into the challenge of implementing a rational response to global climate change. First, I summarize Becker's ideas on psychological repression of death anxiety through symbolic perpetuation of the self, and clarify the empirical framing of these ideas within the branch of social psychology known as "terror management theory" (TMT). I then use TMT research paradigms, which examine how thinking about death influences human behavior (Pyszczynski et al. 2006), to make predictions about how individuals and groups respond to mortal environmental problems like global climate change. The purpose of this synthesis is to explore one of the key psychological links between the reality of global climate change and the difficulty of mobilizing individuals and groups to confront the problem in a rational and timely manner. I focus on Becker's mechanistic (proximate) understanding of self-esteem striving, transference idealization, world view defense, and outgroup antagonism, illuminating several ways in which death-denying defenses and perpetuation of the symbolic self are psychological barriers to the development of modern, rational, sustainable belief systems, advocacy, and action.

Rest at link above and a very interesting read.
 
"Slight"?
if you define that term as "inconsiderable" then you are incorrect.

The amount of temperature rise is both significant and at a rate that is unprecidented in modern history and extremely rare in the history of the planet.

The temperature increase over the last 150 years is so small it's taken 20 years or so to measure properly and the actual contribution from manmade sources and natural variability are indistinguishable. You couldn't physically detect the difference nor could you read it off an average thermometer.

That's the very definition of "slight".
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom