Cont: Global warming discussion V

We didn't get EPA rules by changing our consumer behavior.

Not true. In the vain hope you are open to correction, here's the history of how the EPA came into being. It was a direct result of public opinion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Environmental_Protection_Agency#History

trying to score cheap points?

No. Proving you wrong. Again.

The EPA did NOT some into being because individuals decided to change their consuming behaviour.
Which is what I said, and which you decided to replace with a straw man.

There was Protest and Counterprotest, violence, sabotage, Scientist going public and lots of people dying.
And a President who decided to actually create and enforce standards against polluters.

I guess I was wrong: you are not open to correction. Instead, you clearly prefer to double down on your made-up nonsense.
From the link, which you obviously didn't read:
Beginning in the late 1950s and through the 1960s, Congress reacted to increasing public concern about the impact that human activity could have on the environment...
The 1962 publication of Silent Spring, a best-selling book by Rachel Carson, alerted the public about the detrimental effects on animals and humans of the indiscriminate use of pesticide chemicals.

In the years following, Congress discussed possible solutions. In 1968, a joint House–Senate colloquium was convened by the chairmen of the Senate Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, Senator Henry M. Jackson, and the House Committee on Science and Astronautics, Representative George P. Miller, to discuss the need for and means of implementing a national environmental policy.

Finally the Nixon administration made the environment a priority in 1969-1971 and set up a series of major agencies headed by the new EPA.

Unless you are going to make some arbitrary and unsupportable distinction between 'consumers' and 'the public' (who are the same people: exactly the same people), then it is quite clear that changes in public opinions and behaviour led directly to the setting up of the EPA.
Notice too, no mention of "Protest and Counterprotest, violence, sabotage, Scientist going public and lots of people dying". That's just you making stuff up again.
Even if part of that is true, that is still an example of changing consumer behaviour having a direct effect in the setting up of the EPA.

Changing consumer behaviour had nothing to do with it and would have changed nothing: only the force of the State can stop the biggest polluters in the world. i.e. Big Oil, etc.

Let me spell it out for you in baby steps.
1. Large sections of the public become concerned about environmental issues.
2. They put pressure on their elected representatives.
3. Those representatives pass laws setting up the EPA.
4. The EPA acts to stop the biggest polluters in the world.
Simple. Obvious. And similar things have happened all over the world.

We need to nationalize them, fire-sell their assets and use them to pay for the cleanup and transition to sustainability.

The oil production and refining companies of the Gulf, China and elsewhere are already nationalised. The expense of nationalisation of US companies (which I guess is what you're talking about) would be immense. It's a Just Stop Oil level of pie-in-the-sky impractical nonsense.

Which is obvious, and which is why no one is allowed to say it on mainstream media.

It's not obvious, and no-one is stopping the media from reporting on your idea. Most likely, they aren't because it's a colossally stupid idea, and not worth reporting on.
 
Unless you are going to make some arbitrary and unsupportable distinction between 'consumers' and 'the public' (who are the same people: exactly the same people), then it is quite clear that changes in public opinions and behaviour led directly to the setting up of the EPA.

To be clear, this is fallacious.

Consumer behavior is very much not the same thing as public opinion. It's somewhat fine to say that they involve the same people. It's a gross generalization with lots of exceptions, but somewhat pointless to argue over for these purposes, given that that argument's being used to conflate the two.

Consumer behavior primarily makes sense to use in the context of supply and demand. That deals with one kind of pressure on industry. It has little bearing on government and government action, though.

Public opinion makes more sense to use in the context of a kind of pressure on government. Not so much on pressuring industry, except in an indirect/PR sense.

When you try to conflate the two of them, at best, you're misleading about what pressures actually made it happened.
 
To be clear, this is fallacious.

Consumer behavior is very much not the same thing as public opinion. It's somewhat fine to say that they involve the same people. It's a gross generalization with lots of exceptions, but somewhat pointless to argue over for these purposes, given that that argument's being used to conflate the two.

Consumer behavior primarily makes sense to use in the context of supply and demand. That deals with one kind of pressure on industry. It has little bearing on government and government action, though.

Public opinion makes more sense to use in the context of a kind of pressure on government. Not so much on pressuring industry, except in an indirect/PR sense.

When you try to conflate the two of them, at best, you're misleading about what pressures actually made it happened.

OK, I take your point, to an extent. TGZ is trying to claim that consumer pressure didn't help create the American EPA. Semantically, that may be right, but that's not the main point: the EPA came into being because of public pressure, something both TGZ and dann claim is impossible. There is also an argument here that consumer choices don't affect supply and demand. I reject both these arguments. It's just a way of sneering at ordinary people, and denying both historical facts and economic realities, for reasons of cynicism, apathy and who knows what else. I would argue that it is TGZ who is trying to conflate the two things, not me- but that's OK.
Aridas: do you believe that consumer choices have no effect on supply and demand, and that therefore, a reduced demand for meat would have no discernable effect on its supply?
My point, both to dann and to TGZ, is that we can affect what's going on around us. Whether it's through consumer choices or public pressure is, to me, immaterial. The main thing is achieving the goal of net zero. We absolutely have the power to do that. We need to take action individually, on a governmental level, and on a global level. This can, and hopefully will, be achieved, but only if we ignore the danns and TGZ's of this world.
Finally, it is interesting that you have taken the time to take issue with this point, given the number of outright lies and denial of facts from other posters, that you have let pass. Curious. Most curious.
 
There are no separate " individual, government or global " levels , in that the latter two consist of great numbers of the first.

Until you get millions, if not billions of individuals acting on these issues, it will not translate into government or global action.

A legislative body can sign off all day on actions that should be taken, but until the people who vote them into office or allow them to rule, start taking action themselves, nothing is going to change.
 
There are no separate " individual, government or global " levels , in that the latter two consist of great numbers of the first.

Tell that to dann and arthwollipot.

Until you get millions, if not billions of individuals acting on these issues, it will not translate into government or global action.

You mean like the millions of vegans you claimed did not exist?
You are, by the way, making my point for me, Thank you.

A legislative body can sign off all day on actions that should be taken, but until the people who vote them into office or allow them to rule, start taking action themselves, nothing is going to change.

Wait- now you're saying individuals should take action, because that will make changes happen? Cool. Again, you're making my point for me. Thanks once again for your unexpected support.
 
Aridas: Let me then, in light of your valid points, rephrase:
Consumer behaviour affects industries.
Public opinion affects governments.
How does that sound? OK with that?
Consumer behaviour affects industry through the mechanism of supply and demand. Businesses have no choice but to adapt to changing demands, or else they'll go bust.
Governments respond to voter concerns (in democratic countries), and enact environmental protection laws. Governments can curtail or change the actions of industries.
The point being, as individuals, provided there are enough of us pushing in the right direction, we can make meaningful changes.
I don't see any flaw in my reasoning here- do please tell me if I'm wrong.
TGZ: I fell into your trap there. Kudos. Well done- you got me there. I posted hastily, and was called out on it. I do wonder, though, if you feel this petty skulduggery will in some way help us to progress towards net zero? Somehow I doubt it.
 
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... you're making my point for me. Thanks once again for your unexpected support.

He always has been. Maybe you're looking too hard to have an argument.

I understand the appeal of going with the public policy approach. It allows the person to keep their face in the fossil fuel trough while saying "not my fault" and collecting ideological updoots while fantasizing that, were it not for Big Oil, we'd be living in some sort of Jetsons type paradise.
 
....
Wait- now you're saying individuals should take action, because that will make changes happen? Cool. Again, you're making my point for me. Thanks once again for your unexpected support.[/QUOTE

What I have said all along is that individuals need/should take action. Great numbers of them..]

My observation is that it is not happening, because most people do not want to give up their GHG/ C02 driven life style.

Cynical? Very.
 
An example from life today is my choice would be to work the garden today with all electric tools. Don't have them so the heaviest work was handled by gasoline powered tools.
Because they are more affordable and accessible. Given a choice those would be only for backup use in case if failures.
Comes to my dinner plate meat is preferred and the finest plate of veggies would be passed to another that may eat them. I will go look for something I want.

My individual sacrifices to help reduce pollution have been those that fit where I live and what I must do. Not insignificant really because a personal choice was in transportation. Human powered whenever possible. Over two decades that is a lot of gasoline I didn't put in a car.
That's my part, you do yours and a few billion others step in....
It could be a major change.
 
OK, I take your point, to an extent. TGZ is trying to claim that consumer pressure didn't help create the American EPA. Semantically, that may be right, but that's not the main point: the EPA came into being because of public pressure, something both TGZ and dann claim is impossible.

I don't think that I've seen either of them claim that? In fact, it quite looks like what you had quoted from TGZ directly refutes your claim here.

There is also an argument here that consumer choices don't affect supply and demand.

I don't think I've seen that argument either. Some somewhat similar ones, sure, but ones that generally stay at least technically true. When dann repeatedly stressed "as an individual" and equated what was said with trying to stop a war by being a conscientious objector, that was true, as far as it went. That what dann said didn't apply to large groups, unlike what you intended, and did not include acknowledging the part of what you said about also putting pressure on industry are both points well worthy of note. What dann said didn't cross the line into falsehood, though.

Aridas: do you believe that consumer choices have no effect on supply and demand, and that therefore, a reduced demand for meat would have no discernable effect on its supply?

Of course consumer choices, taken at large scales, do matter. A reduced overall demand for meat would eventually have an effect on supply. I'm pretty sure that that particular point hasn't been meaningfully in dispute, though. There are related points that have been made, such as that total worldwide consumption does actually seem to be going up. That remains true even if there are many new vegans/vegetarians every day (and a hopefully usually smaller number of existing ones who stop being vegans/vegetarians or cheat). Denying that new vegans/vegetarians exist was eye-rollingly dumb, of course, as would be trying to claim that their choices and efforts are meaningless, but overemphasizing their effect isn't going to help much either.

My point, both to dann and to TGZ, is that we can affect what's going on around us. Whether it's through consumer choices or public pressure is, to me, immaterial.

Immaterial isn't the same as embracing fallacy, though, and trying to berate others because they're a bit sensitive to fallacy (especially when there's excellent cause to be sensitive to it) isn't really a way to gain some advantage.

When it comes to climate change, especially, there's excellent reason to be sensitive to conflation, confusing the issues, and so on. dann's recent "carbon footprint" point highlighted that yet again. The point that "carbon footprint" as a concept was popularized by Big Oil to try to avoid responsibility is a reasonable point to make. It doesn't somehow change or absolve the parts that each of us plays, of course, but it does more meaningfully point at what's going on. A powerful, irresponsible, and profit-driven force is trying to avoid taking responsibility for its actions. In the end, it's up to us to make sure that it's held accountable, despite its efforts. Without doing that, our various collective individual actions to try to mitigate damage are fairly certainly not going to be anywhere close to as effective as we want them to be.

Finally, it is interesting that you have taken the time to take issue with this point, given the number of outright lies and denial of facts from other posters, that you have let pass. Curious. Most curious.

Much of the time, I let things that are addressed by others pass without additional comment from me. I took issue with the point, specifically, in part because it was not addressed at that point. That wasn't all, though. It was particularly annoying to me because of how badly you chose to behave there. You chose to berate others after your misuse was called out and have used arguments that were refuted in what you quoted! Hence, I poked at some of the crux of the issue in play, in hopes that you would take a step back, take a deep breath, and engage in more rational discussion and debate.


Aridas: Let me then, in light of your valid points, rephrase:
Consumer behaviour affects industries.
Public opinion affects governments.
How does that sound? OK with that?

Sure.

Consumer behaviour affects industry through the mechanism of supply and demand. Businesses have no choice but to adapt to changing demands, or else they'll go bust.
Governments respond to voter concerns (in democratic countries), and enact environmental protection laws. Governments can curtail or change the actions of industries.
The point being, as individuals, provided there are enough of us pushing in the right direction, we can make meaningful changes.

Sure.

I don't see any flaw in my reasoning here- do please tell me if I'm wrong.
TGZ: I fell into your trap there. Kudos. Well done- you got me there. I posted hastily, and was called out on it. I do wonder, though, if you feel this petty skulduggery will in some way help us to progress towards net zero? Somehow I doubt it.

Umm... the part to take issue here with may be that you think that TGZ set a trap there, rather than you tripping over your own feet and trying to push the blame for that elsewhere. *shrug* To err is human, though, and seeking to learn from one's mistakes and do better in the future is about the best that one can honestly do.
 
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"Everyone wants to get back to Nature, but no one wants to walk there."
Another meaningless platitude attempting to poison the well.

In the 1970's, Exxon scientists accurately predicted the current CO2 concentration and rate of temperature rise. Of course, as you would expect from an organization whose only goal is make a profit for its shareholders, Exxon buried the reports and spent the next 35 years denying that their product was causing a global environmental catastrophe.

If only the general public had known the truth, everybody have demanded that fossil fuels be rapidly phased out just like CFC's were. Or would they? From the very moment that the need to curb global warming was publicly recognized, the pushback began. Nobody liked being told that they were the bad guy, and the obvious reaction was to simply deny it. Those who accepted reality and did anything to help were vilified by the rest. Turns out it wasn't just Exxon who had a selfish motive.

In truth the majority didn't want to 'get back to Nature', they wanted to continue their polluting ways as if there was no problem. Anybody who supported mitigation efforts was vilified. One of the most popular attacks was accusing us of not 'walking the walk' - if we didn't give up all the comforts of modern life and get back to Nature then we were hypocrites. Of course if we did it wouldn't change their behavior - they would just laugh at us for uselessly enduring personal hardship while they partied on.

If you use that phrase then you are aligning yourself with the Luddites. You boost their narrative and dismiss the large number of us who are doing the right thing without getting stupid about it.

But I won't focus on the negative. As we get more guidance we will make a greater difference, then the Luddites will loose their voice as positive actions drown them out.

‘It’s not game over – it’s game on’: why 2024 is an inflection point for the climate crisis
We have the technology needed to replace fossil fuels across our economy: in electricity generation, transport, heating, cooking and industrial processes. In fact, surging market demand for clean energy technologies – wind, solar, batteries and electric cars – is now displacing polluting technologies, such as coal-fired power and combustion engine vehicles, on a global scale.

The world added 510 billion watts of renewable energy capacity in 2023, 50% more than in 2022 and equivalent to the entire power capacity of Germany, France and Spain combined. The next five years are expected to see even faster growth in renewables.

Sales of electric vehicles are also booming – growing by 31% in 2023 and representing around 18% of all new vehicles sold worldwide...

The accelerating shift toward clean energy technologies means global greenhouse gas emissions may fall in 2024. Recent analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA), based on the stated policies of governments, suggests emissions may in fact have peaked last year. The finding is supported by analysis from Climate Analytics, which found a 70% chance of emissions falling from 2024 if current growth in clean technologies continues.

A growing number of major economies have passed their emissions peaks, including the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Japan.

China is currently the world’s biggest emitter, contributing 31% of the global total last year. But explosive growth in clean energy investments mean China’s emissions are set not only to fall in 2024, but to go into structural decline.
 
Another meaningless platitude attempting to poison the well.

In the 1970's, Exxon scientists accurately predicted the current CO2 concentration and rate of temperature rise. Of course, as you would expect from an organization whose only goal is make a profit for its shareholders, Exxon buried the reports and spent the next 35 years denying that their product was causing a global environmental catastrophe.

If only the general public had known the truth, everybody have demanded that fossil fuels be rapidly phased out just like CFC's were. Or would they? From the very moment that the need to curb global warming was publicly recognized, the pushback began. Nobody liked being told that they were the bad guy, and the obvious reaction was to simply deny it. Those who accepted reality and did anything to help were vilified by the rest. Turns out it wasn't just Exxon who had a selfish motive.

In truth the majority didn't want to 'get back to Nature', they wanted to continue their polluting ways as if there was no problem. Anybody who supported mitigation efforts was vilified. One of the most popular attacks was accusing us of not 'walking the walk' - if we didn't give up all the comforts of modern life and get back to Nature then we were hypocrites. Of course if we did it wouldn't change their behavior - they would just laugh at us for uselessly enduring personal hardship while they partied on.

If you use that phrase then you are aligning yourself with the Luddites. You boost their narrative and dismiss the large number of us who are doing the right thing without getting stupid about it.

But I won't focus on the negative. As we get more guidance we will make a greater difference, then the Luddites will loose their voice as positive actions drown them out.

‘It’s not game over – it’s game on’: why 2024 is an inflection point for the climate crisis

I was making fun of the people kidding themselves that they can safe the planet by buying brand-new electric car etc.etc.

As I have stated before, like you, not only do I hold the big polluters 100% responsible for the Climate Crisis, but as you have shown, they are criminally liable, having known what would happen and not only ignoring their own findings, but going to extreme lengths to cover them up and undermining any efforts at objective research into global warming.
They all need to get the Capitalist version of a Death Sentence, i.e. shut down, assets seized and used to undo a bit of the damage caused.

But as we have seen with the Drug Pushers in the US, all this system is going to let us do is force them to hand out a tiny fraction of the profits they made from killing people and destroying the environment.

When Union Carbide killed 15,000 people in India, and injured 600,000 more, it took four years to squeeze $470 million out of them, pocket change, if no American going to prison.

What chance do we have to get to the trillions in oil, gas and shipping money, in mega-agricorps, in ethanol welfare companies that we need to stabilize the planet at a level most of us can survive?

The best thing an individual can do is plot ways to make it too costly to be an air polluter.
 
Has the rise in renewables, and the accelerated shift towards renewable technologies, led to any effect on rising global temperatures? No. So none of this means anything, right? :rolleyes:

No, of course not, otherwise we wouldn't have all the doom and gloom from climate scientists in the Guardian article posted above.

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despair

Just for fun.

Monty Python - Always Look on the Bright Side of Life
 
Has the rise in renewables, and the accelerated shift towards renewable technologies, led to any effect on rising global temperatures? No. So none of this means anything, right?

You are misguided in your understanding of AGW. Temperatures will continue to rise even if we stopped cold turkey all fossil carbon emissions.

20. If emissions of greenhouse gases were stopped, would the climate return to the conditions of 200 years ago?
No. Even if emissions of greenhouse gases were to suddenly stop, Earth’s surface temperature would require thousands of years to cool and return to the level in the pre-industrial era.
https://royalsociety.org/news-resou...d stay elevated,stopped increasing [Figure 9].

Only massive negative emissions or a global cooling from geo-engineering could cause an appreciable drop in a short period in the atmospheric temps ( Pinatubo was an example of inadvertent engineering test)
The ocean would take much much longer to cool...you will need a Milankovich cycle to kick in and that's a ways out still.

Massive reforestation would speed up cooling for a number of reasons but that's unlikely too.
 
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I was making fun of the people kidding themselves that they can safe the planet by buying brand-new electric car etc.etc.
Why?

In 2011 Nissan introduced the Leaf. I wanted one, but couldn't afford NZ$60,000 (I was unemployed at the time). So someone in Japan bought one and drove it around for 3 years, after which they sold it because in Japan 'old' cars have to meet rigorous test standards. It was then shipped to New Zealand where someone here bought it and drove it around for another 5 years, racking up a total of 61,000 km. Then I bought it for NZ$10,000 (~US$6,000 or UK£5,000). If it wasn't for that person in Japan buying a 'brand new' electric car, 2 owners in New Zealand would have bought a gas car instead.

Now as we all know, manufacturing an EV creates more CO2 than making a gas car, due to the battery. How long it takes to recover this extra 'carbon footprint' depends on the energy mix of the electricity used to charge it. Unfortunately on March 11 2011 the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan was destroyed, reducing the mix of 'low carbon' electricity in Japan from 39% to 21%. As a result it would have taken ~30,000 km for this Leaf to 'pay for' its production cost over there. However in New Zealand our electricity mix is 82% renewable, so after 61,000 km it had saved many tons of carbon emissions over an equivalent gas car.

If I had been able to afford a Leaf in 2011 it would have 'paid for' itself in about 3 years of my driving. It is now 13 years old, so that is 10 years of emissions it could have avoided. The amount of carbon I produced by driving a gas car for 8 of those 10 years makes me sick. But it's never too late to start making a difference.

Today only 1% of vehicles in New Zealand are EVs. We consume 23 million liters of fuel every day, producing 21% of our GHG emissions. 65% of that comes from cars. In Norway, a country with similar population to New Zealand, but longer driving distances and much colder, 25% of the fleet is electric and over 80% of new cars sold are EVs. By the end of this year they are expected to have more EVs than petrol cars on the road.

Why can't we do that? One reason is that people like you make fun of us. Many people who could be making a difference won't because they fear being laughed at for 'kidding themselves that they can safe the planet', by buying an EV instead of a gas car etc. etc. And then you wonder why people aren't doing enough. It's you. You are the problem!

What chance do we have to get to the trillions in oil, gas and shipping money, in mega-agricorps, in ethanol welfare companies that we need to stabilize the planet at a level most of us can survive?
Plenty, if we all get serious about it instead of making fun of those who are.
 
Has the rise in renewables, and the accelerated shift towards renewable technologies, led to any effect on rising global temperatures? No. So none of this means anything, right? :rolleyes:
Wrong. It has had an effect. And it's accelerating.

Right now we are in the 'bootstrap' phase. Producing renewable sources has a carbon cost too - until we use renewables to make renewables. Then the effect will be very dramatic. Temperatures will continue to rise of course, until we reach net zero. But the rate of rise will decline - whereas with 'business as usual' it would be accelerating.

The problem is, people look at the numbers and say "Oh no, the temperature keeps rising no matter what we do! Nothing's working! Might as well throw in the towel and just put up with whatever happens. :(". But this would be a huge mistake. If we do nothing it will be much much worse. Even if we only manage to get the temperature to level off it will be a lot better than climbing exponentially. We can a handle a stasis even if it's bad, We can't handle it continuously getting worse.
 
Why?

In 2011 Nissan introduced the Leaf. I wanted one, but couldn't afford NZ$60,000 (I was unemployed at the time). So someone in Japan bought one and drove it around for 3 years, after which they sold it because in Japan 'old' cars have to meet rigorous test standards. It was then shipped to New Zealand where someone here bought it and drove it around for another 5 years, racking up a total of 61,000 km. Then I bought it for NZ$10,000 (~US$6,000 or UK£5,000). If it wasn't for that person in Japan buying a 'brand new' electric car, 2 owners in New Zealand would have bought a gas car instead.

Now as we all know, manufacturing an EV creates more CO2 than making a gas car, due to the battery. How long it takes to recover this extra 'carbon footprint' depends on the energy mix of the electricity used to charge it. Unfortunately on March 11 2011 the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan was destroyed, reducing the mix of 'low carbon' electricity in Japan from 39% to 21%. As a result it would have taken ~30,000 km for this Leaf to 'pay for' its production cost over there. However in New Zealand our electricity mix is 82% renewable, so after 61,000 km it had saved many tons of carbon emissions over an equivalent gas car.

If I had been able to afford a Leaf in 2011 it would have 'paid for' itself in about 3 years of my driving. It is now 13 years old, so that is 10 years of emissions it could have avoided. The amount of carbon I produced by driving a gas car for 8 of those 10 years makes me sick. But it's never too late to start making a difference.

Today only 1% of vehicles in New Zealand are EVs. We consume 23 million liters of fuel every day, producing 21% of our GHG emissions. 65% of that comes from cars. In Norway, a country with similar population to New Zealand, but longer driving distances and much colder, 25% of the fleet is electric and over 80% of new cars sold are EVs. By the end of this year they are expected to have more EVs than petrol cars on the road.

Why can't we do that? One reason is that people like you make fun of us. Many people who could be making a difference won't because they fear being laughed at for 'kidding themselves that they can safe the planet', by buying an EV instead of a gas car etc. etc. And then you wonder why people aren't doing enough. It's you. You are the problem!

Plenty, if we all get serious about it instead of making fun of those who are.

Electric cars are barely less environmental friendly even in best cases.
It's a very bad investment if you want to fight climate change.

Just a fact.

But it did it's most important function: made you feel about yourself.
 
Electric cars are barely less environmental friendly even in best cases

What an utter crock. Bald statement that is wrong and no supporting evidence

However, research conducted by the European Energy Agency states that “even when we account for the source of electricity generation, electric cars emit approximately 17-30% less carbon than gasoline or diesel cars.” Additionally, switching to cleaner energy sources further reduces the environmental impact of ...8 Sept 2023

A battery electric car sold in 2023 will emit half as much as conventional equivalents over its lifetime

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/outlook-for-emissions-reductions
 

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