Cont: Global warming discussion V

[dann]

It depends on why people are buying motorcycles. As a cheap commuter vehicle, an electric motorcycle will probably work just as well as a gas motorcycle.

But I imagine a lot of buyers of motorcycles are seeking them out as recreational, rather than practical, reasons. Not sure an electric motorcycle will have the same thrill factor. Electric motor means no gear shifting, for example, and no noise or rattle associated with motorcycling. As a motorcyclist in prior years, it just doesn't strike me as much of a fun riding experience, though I would point out that electric motors have tremendous potential for instantaneous power and acceleration.

In my case, it's all of the above. As I've mentioned before, a bicycle, sometimes combined with public transport, is usually all I need, but occasionally a motorcycle comes in handy, e.g. for going to venues outside of Copenhagen or visiting friends in other parts of the (small) country. 200-300 km would suffice, and most electric motorcycles can do that, according to the specifications I've seen. The lack of "rattle" will probably make then last longer.

Ebikes seem to take a lot of the market for practical, short distance, low speed commuter vehicles and are pretty cheap. I just don't know how much of a market there are between slow, cheap ebikes and ICE motorcycles for EV motorcycles to be that popular.

Ebikes really seem to hit the sweet spot for many people. Decent speeds for urban and low speed commuting, relatively cheap, and still light enough to treat like a bicycle when it comes to storage and other practical concerns.

Most E-bikes around here seem to be 'hybrid', i.e. not fossil fuel + electricity, but pedals + electricity, meant for people who like the extra power from electricity when they are going up against the wind or up a hill. I think the electric engine cuts out automatically when your pedaling speed is more than 20 km/h.
We don't have many hills, and as for wind, we are currently having a couple of those windy days when the price of electricity goes below zero, so owners of electric vehicles will no doubt be charging them today - and Hans will probably be doing his laundry.

As for the "slow, cheap E-bikes," people will still get around faster on one of those in the city than they will in a car.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Electric motor means no gear shifting, for example, and no noise or rattle associated with motorcycling. As a motorcyclist in prior years, it just doesn't strike me as much of a fun riding experience,

Perhaps you should try one. Motorcyclists who have done remark on how the lower noise and vibration makes the experience more enjoyable, especially on long trips.

 

[dann]

The World Weather Attribution just released a report saying human-caused climate change played a big role in the catastrophic flooding in Libya.
A collaboration of scientists is sounding the alarm on climate change (ABC News on YouTube, Sep 19, 2023 - 4:42 min)

The clip also mentions ClimateWeek NYC.
Protests outside the Bank of America tower in Bryant Park; "the bank is the third-largest financer of fossil fuels."

Over 100 protesters were arrested during demonstrations on Wall Street to draw attention to climate change. Tom Negovan has the latest.
114 arrested at climate change protest in Lower Manhattan (Eyewitness News ABC7NY on YouTube, Sep 19, 2023 - 2:39 min)

Hundreds of climate protesters crowded the entrances to Citigroup's Tribeca headquarters Thursday morning. Tom Negovan has the latest.
Arrests made as climate protesters block doors to Citigroup in Tribeca (Eyewitness News ABC7NY on YouTube, Sep 15, 2023 - 2:06 min)

Climate protesters arrested in NYC
JunkScience.com founder Steve Milloy discusses climate protesters in New York City calling for an end to fossil fuels on 'The Bottom Line.' (Fox Business on Youtube, Sep 19, 2023 - 6:13 min)

Steve Milloy & JunkScience:

In an editorial in Chemical & Engineering News, Editor-in-Chief Rudy Baum called Milloy's junkscience.com website "the best known" example of "a right wing effort in the U.S. to discredit widely accepted science, technology and medical information."[20] An editorial in the American Journal of Public Health noted that "... attacking the science underlying difficult public policy decisions with the label of 'junk' has become a common ploy for those opposed to regulation ... One need only peruse JunkScience.com to get a sense of the long list of public health issues for which research has been so labeled."
Steve Milloy: Junk Science (Wikipedia)

Steve Milloy is one of the really bad guys, spreading disinformation for both Big Tobacco and Big Oil.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Perhaps you should try one. Motorcyclists who have done remark on how the lower noise and vibration makes the experience more enjoyable, especially on long trips.

Not likely anytime soon. My motorcycling days ended when I moved away from a place with weather that could tolerate year round riding, and I'm not likely to own a motorcycle in addition to a car unless I live in a place with a garage.

Most of the e motorcycles I see top out around 200 ish miles of range on a single charge, which is pretty outstanding. I suspect very few motorcyclists are riding anywhere near that much in a single day. As someone who has done trips longer than this, it's pretty taxing even with a bike set up for touring.

Ebikes remain pretty expensive though. A Honda CBR600RR, which is a popular and excellent sport bike, is about 12K brand new. Lower performance models can be well less than $10,000 new. And the used market is flush with very cheap ICE motorcycles, which is not yet the case with e motorcycles.

The cheapest electric motorcycles with a top speed above highway speeds are a good bit more expensive, about 1.5-2x as much as their venerable ICE peers.

The CBR300R has a top speed north of 90 mph and costs less than $5,000 brand new, the Zero bike with a similar top speed is just shy of $12,000. That's just an example. Cheaper electronic models exist, but have top speeds that indicate to me they'd struggle at highway speeds, and even in that regard small engine ICE motorcycles that also have lower top speeds are even cheaper (a kawasaki 125cc is like $3,500).

As a purely practical vehicle an electric motorcycle seems a winner, presumably having way less maintenance requirements than their ICE counterparts, though maintaining a motorcycle is often part of the joy of owning one (especially in comparison to modern cars which increasingly get harder and harder to work on).

 

[TurkeysGhost]

As for the "slow, cheap E-bikes," people will still get around faster on one of those in the city than they will in a car.

Yes, that's my point. A slow ebike is great for cities, and a motorcycle probably won't get you much additional utility because city speeds rarely require the additional power. You'd only really want an electric motorcycle if you're exiting the city and hitting higher speed roads, which comes at escalating costs for EV motorcycles compared to much cheaper ebikes.

The electric motorcycle is a very narrow niche between the cheapness and utility of a ebikes which excel in low speed environments like cities and the super cheap ICE motorcycles that can achieve highway speeds for a fraction of the cost of their high-speed electric counterparts.

 

[dann]

Bad news

2030 UK petrol and diesel sales ban delayed to 2035 (Carbuyer.co.uk, Sep 20, 2023)
UK Government delays ban on petrol and diesel cars to 2035 (EVO.co.uk, Sep 20, 2023)
Ford UK says any delay on government petrol car ban risks EV transition (Reuters, Sep 20, 2023)

 

[TurkeysGhost]

2030 UK petrol and diesel sales ban delayed to 2035 (Carbuyer.co.uk, Sep 20, 2023)
UK Government delays ban on petrol and diesel cars to 2035 (EVO.co.uk, Sep 20, 2023)
Ford UK says any delay on government petrol car ban risks EV transition (Reuters, Sep 20, 2023)

Interesting to see a big automaker giving them grief over a delay. Gotta say, they have a good point about their grievance here. They've been investing heavily to overhaul their product lines to comply with the coming green economy, and this arbitrary push-back of the date is no way to thank them.

The UK is a silly place and looks like it's only going to get more silly for the foreseeable future. Sad to see a country seemingly dead-set on making themselves worse off in the long run for no good reason.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Interesting to see a big automaker giving them grief over a delay. Gotta say, they have a good point about their grievance here. They've been investing heavily to overhaul their product lines to comply with the coming green economy, and this arbitrary push-back of the date is no way to thank them.

A bit disappointing, but not that bad. Most countries have a cutoff date of 2035 or 2040. But EV adoption has already reached tipping point in many countries, so the changeover will probably be nearly complete long before these dates.

China set an aggressive target and what did gas car makers do? Kept making them right up to the limit. Now China is swamped with new cars nobody wants because they will soon be illegal. Unfortunately the World has already paid the CO₂ cost of making those cars, which no doubt will be sold cheap in other countries to get rid of them. That may delay the introduction of EVs more than if a more reasonable date was set. Germany for example is panicking about Chinese cars flooding their market, resulting in calls to remove incentives for EVs and put them on gas cars instead!

Kudos to Ford for being on the right side for a change. But they needn't worry. Just make awesome EVs at good prices and they will sell. Next year's EV are going to be truly awesome, allaying fears people have about range, charging speed and longevity. They will also be cheaper.

By 2030 EVs will be well established and only dyed-in-the-wool Luddites will reject them. And the news media of course. How long before they stop bashing EVs at every opportunity?

The UK is a silly place and looks like it's only going to get more silly for the foreseeable future. Sad to see a country seemingly dead-set on making themselves worse off in the long run for no good reason.

Yes, the UK is a silly place. So are most places. But they will come around.

More than 1m electric vehicles now on UK roads

26/04/2023

One in every 32 cars now comes with a plug, with 1.1 million electric cars now in use on UK roads – up by more than 50% over the past year, accounting for 3.1% of the vehicle parc, new figures show.

Despite the overall increase in vehicles on the road, average car and van CO2 emissions have fallen by 1.6% – driven by the influx of new lower and zero emission models...

The UK’s most popular cars are superminis and small family (lower medium) models, which account for nearly six in 10 cars in service, at 11,620,116 and 9,214,039 units respectively.

Top cars 2022
1 Ford Fiesta 1,516,560
2 Ford focus 1,090,777
3 Vauxhall Corsa 1,064,577
4 Volkswagen Golf 1,020,100

Ford is in excellent position to dominate the UK market if they can produce small EVs at a good price. If Ford doesn't do it, someone else will. With nearly 50% of the fleet being 10 years old or older, and petrol prices going up again, many people must be thinking about getting a newer more efficient car - and many of them may choose an EV.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Protests outside the Bank of America tower in Bryant Park; "the bank is the third-largest financer of fossil fuels."

Nobody likes big banks, so they are a good target for protests even if they are not really responsible. If it makes money harder to get for fossil fuel projects it's all good. But we must remember that it is the demand for oil that makes it profitable to extract. The more we can drive that down the less banks will be interested in investing in the industry.

Steve Milloy is one of the really bad guys, spreading disinformation for both Big Tobacco and Big Oil.

Ah yes, Steven Milloy. We thoroughly debunked his shtick long ago - does anyone still listen to him?

 

[novaphile]

I tried an electric motorcycle at an environment fair.

It had a gearbox and they strongly advised me not to take it out of third gear.

It was insanely responsive and absolutely scared me senseless.



That was about 20 years ago, so I'm guessing there are all kinds of things on the market now.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

A bit disappointing, but not that bad. Most countries have a cutoff date of 2035 or 2040. But EV adoption has already reached tipping point in many countries, so the changeover will probably be nearly complete long before these dates.

China set an aggressive target and what did gas car makers do? Kept making them right up to the limit. Now China is swamped with new cars nobody wants because they will soon be illegal. Unfortunately the World has already paid the CO₂ cost of making those cars, which no doubt will be sold cheap in other countries to get rid of them. That may delay the introduction of EVs more than if a more reasonable date was set. Germany for example is panicking about Chinese cars flooding their market, resulting in calls to remove incentives for EVs and put them on gas cars instead!

Kudos to Ford for being on the right side for a change. But they needn't worry. Just make awesome EVs at good prices and they will sell. Next year's EV are going to be truly awesome, allaying fears people have about range, charging speed and longevity. They will also be cheaper.

By 2030 EVs will be well established and only dyed-in-the-wool Luddites will reject them. And the news media of course. How long before they stop bashing EVs at every opportunity?

Yes, the UK is a silly place. So are most places. But they will come around.

More than 1m electric vehicles now on UK roads
Ford is in excellent position to dominate the UK market if they can produce small EVs at a good price. If Ford doesn't do it, someone else will. With nearly 50% of the fleet being 10 years old or older, and petrol prices going up again, many people must be thinking about getting a newer more efficient car - and many of them may choose an EV.

There's a huge difference between having an EV as part of a larger catalog of vehicles which includes mostly ICE vehicles and a catalog that is entirely EV vehicles, which seems to have been what Ford was anticipating for the UK market given these promised deadlines.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I tried an electric motorcycle at an environment fair.

It had a gearbox and they strongly advised me not to take it out of third gear.

It was insanely responsive and absolutely scared me senseless.



That was about 20 years ago, so I'm guessing there are all kinds of things on the market now.

Even rather wimpy ICE motorcycles have a power to weight ratio sufficient to get you into trouble (even the small sport bikes can be stood up into a wheelie if you go heavy on the throttle), but yeah the instantaneous power of an electric motor is even more pronounced.

My understanding of these EV motorcycles is that they generally have some computerized power control that will modulate the throttle sensitivity to something more manageable and prevent riders from going into unintended wheelies from the insane torque potential of an electric motor.

 

[dann]

Sounds and looks good, but will it actually be done?
From a (Danish) manufacturer of pumps:

Providing community water supply to remote or informal urban locations via Solar-powered pump systems, including water management and revenue collection systems in emerging markets.
Community Solar Solutions
Grundfos (Twitter/X, Sep 18, 2023)

Mere 'greenwashing'?

 

[lobosrul5]

I tried an electric motorcycle at an environment fair.

It had a gearbox and they strongly advised me not to take it out of third gear.

It was insanely responsive and absolutely scared me senseless.



That was about 20 years ago, so I'm guessing there are all kinds of things on the market now.

You might find a TV documentary called Long Way Up interesting, if you can find it.

The journey covered a 13,000-mile (21,000 km) route, through 13 countries, over 100 days, starting on 5 September 2019 and finishing on 14 December 2019, using prototype Harley-Davidson LiveWire electric motorcycles that had been converted into adventure bikes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Way_Up

Its Ewan McGregor and Charlie Boorman riding electric motorcycles from Ushuaia to LA.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

My understanding of these EV motorcycles is that they generally have some computerized power control that will modulate the throttle sensitivity to something more manageable and prevent riders from going into unintended wheelies from the insane torque potential of an electric motor.

Yes. Every electric drive train more sophisticated than a golf cart generally has torque control, if for no other reason than to stop the controller from blowing up or stripping gears etc. It is commonly used to prevent wheel spin, which saves wear on tires and improves handling. I don't know about electric motorcycles, but theoretically torque control could be used to prevent the bike from flipping or skidding out of control under heavy acceleration.

Something to consider is that unlike a gas engine, an electric motor has maximum torque at zero rpm, linearly dropping to zero at maximum rpm. This causes an electric motor to regulate its speed much better than a gas motor does. It also gives it insane controllable torque at low speed. No need to slip a clutch or have lots of gears to get lots of useful torque at low speed.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Sounds and looks good, but will it actually be done?
From a (Danish) manufacturer of pumps:


Mere 'greenwashing'?

"...including water management and revenue collection systems in emerging markets".

More like making 'green' than washing it. A cheaper method of pumping water to areas without grid electricity is a way to make more profit, especially when you have a captive market. Water might be essential to life, but selling water to people who desperately need it is where the real money is.

 

[Puppycow]

Phil Mason's (aka Thunderf00t) latest video about geoengineering.

 

[ThatGuy11200]

Phil Mason's (aka Thunderf00t) latest video about geoengineering.

Can you give a brief summary?

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Can you give a brief summary?

Something about releasing particulates into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight. As if we haven't screwed around with it enough already.

I didn't watch the whole video because Thunderf00t's shtick is getting tiresome. But this 'solution' would be temporary at best. The worst thing is that if it worked it would just encourage people to carry on with 'business as usual' releasing even more greenhouse gasses, then we would be in even more of a pickle.

Reminds me of the story about the lady who swallowed a fly.

 

[Puppycow]

He doesn’t say it’s a long term solution, it’s a stopgap measure that we could use to bridge to getting to zero emissions. He also explains why planting trees is not going to make a big difference. And he says that he doesn’t expect serious, timely action to happen until the average citizen really starts to feel the consequences of global warming.