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Cont: Global warming discussion V

Looks like someone's going to have to explain the difference between 'climate' and 'weather'.
Again.

No, we hear that all the time, while the left pretends like every extreme weather event is the result of global warming. You know, like they are doing right now with the fires in Australia:

https://www.yaleclimateconnections....ge-influenced-australias-unprecedented-fires/

Here's the left's favorite source for the truth about everything -- Politifact:

"Those claims about nearly 200 arrested for arson in the Australia bushfires are wrong"


https://www.politifact.com/facebook...claims-about-nearly-200-arrested-arson-austr/
 
Here's the left's favorite source for the truth about everything -- Politifact:

"Those claims about nearly 200 arrested for arson in the Australia bushfires are wrong"


https://www.politifact.com/facebook...claims-about-nearly-200-arrested-arson-austr/
Brilliant. Undermine your own argument.

Also, in an old book God promised he would lay off the calamities after he killed everyone once, save a few souls who got busy with incest, and a lot of people think the world is going to end soon anyway, because of their interpretation of the same book, so no worries, God's got it covered.

Now this *is* off topic, but it's hard to separate the strands when people trash Greta, and when told Greta listens to science, they trash science, then when people say the science is solid they go back to trashing Greta.

I just look at graphs showing atmospheric CO2 and the rise of CO2 emissions and wonder why people think that radically altering the atmosphere we've evolved with in a very short period of time can't possibly have any effect on the climate or on people's well being.

There's one way to find out and Greta stands a better chance of experiencing the outcome than I do.
 
Person 1: I know it’s not healthy to weight 800 lbs, but no one can tell me what I can do about it.
Person 2: Stop eating, start running. Ten miles a day. Begin immediately.
Person 1: If I do that, I will destroy my knees and probably have a heart attack. If I'm lucky, I'll live long enough to starve to death. Do you have a better plan?
Person 2: So you're denying that you need to lose some weight?
It reminds me of a post on Quora I made a while back regarding denialism.
I used this comedy show as an analogy:


Except of course I changed "eat less, move more" to "emit less, sequester more".
 
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Fair call but personally think a tax cut carrot to turn solar and find other alternatives beats the stick that will just end up hitting consumers.

Generally speaking, subsidies and/or externalities that effectively subsidise a product are not good things. They distorted the market away from it’s most efficient point and create deadweight loss which lowers overall productivity. You can sometimes justify them for social and fairness reasons but from a purely economics standpoint they reduce the total value of goods/services being produced.


Exposing consumers to the real cost of the products they buy though carbon pricing would be a much better way to change the type of products people buy.
 
No, we hear that all the time, while the left pretends like every extreme weather event is the result of global warming.

The math says what it says, in this case it says many of these events are specifically caused by global warming.
You know, like they are doing right now with the fires in Australia:
“Arson” is just the latest conspiracy theory the right wing media is throwing out there to keep the sheep in line. Without global warming, even a deliberate large-scale arson campaign (which certainly doe not exist) could not do a tiny fraction of the damage the current fires are causing.
 
Without global warming, even a deliberate large-scale arson campaign (which certainly doe not exist) could not do a tiny fraction of the damage the current fires are causing.


Obviously, the conspiracy has commandeered the same orbital energy weapons that were used to destroy the World Trade Center.
 
Exposing consumers to the real cost of the products they buy though carbon pricing would be a much better way to change the type of products people buy.
Maybe in theory...but I ran a rather unscientific "poll" on what people might be willing to pay to offset their carbon footprint.

The answer is overwhelmingly zero zero nada zip nothing 0.0.

Very angry zeros in fact.

This from people quite willing to pay 35$ a month or more on trash/garbage pick-up.

Carbon sequestration in the soil could be done much cheaper than that.....

So until public mood changes, you are just beating a dead horse. They won't do it unless forced right now. There is no convincing them at the moment.
 
More strawmen? ...
Wrong - published science that shows Alan Savory is abysmally ignorant about climate:
Alan Savory's article is ignorant about the cause of global warming (it is CO2 not his fantasy of farm management).
A farmer/ecologist and his agricultural institute is a bad source of climate science and there is his obvious ignorance and no published papers!
Savory's idea of a reversal of global warming to pre-industrial levels is debunked in a Skeptical Sceince climate myth article which cites many papers including Nordborg, M. (2016).

You did not remember what you actually cited You cited 1 paper by Dr Christine Jones with no "MEASURED case studies AVERAGING 5-20 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr"!. It is an opinion piece about the "liquid carbon cycle" (carbon in fungi) with an unnamed "in appropriate circumstances" annual carbon sequestration number with no citation.

You are still cherry picking irrelevant papers and ignoring the papers that say that Holistic Management tm is not better than other methods in sequestering carbon. No published paper that states Savory's debated idea can reverse (that is the deluded part of his idea) global warming.

P24.40: Mitigating livestock greenhouse gas balance through carbon sequestration in grasslands (PDF) is a conference poster, not a published paper.

You still do not understand 'Nordborg, M. (2016). Holistic management – a critical review of Allan Savory's grazing method' (PDF), described at Holistic management – a critical review of Allan Savory’s grazing method. Section "3. Scientific studies of holistic grazing" is 8 pages starting with 11 published papers selected by the Savory Institute and studies they omitted. The conclusion is
Based on the material reviewed here, there is only indicative evidence for the general superiority of holistic grazing over other grazing systems or no grazing.
Then Nordborg looked at Savory's idea that HM can "atmospheric carbon dioxide levels can drop to pre-industrial levels in a few decades" which was already dubious - see Briske et al. (2013;2014) and Carter et al. (2014).

Conant et al. (2010) found an average carbon sequestration rate for 'improved grazing' that was 7 time smaller than the Savory Institute values. That published science debunks the claim of the Savory Institute :eye-poppi!

No one disagrees that improved farming techniques can play a role in mitigating global warming. What the scientific literature states is that this is a small mitigation. Carbon sequestration - Agriculture
Modification of agricultural practices is a recognized method of carbon sequestration as soil can act as an effective carbon sink offsetting as much as 20% of 2010 carbon dioxide emissions annually.[30] (See No-till). Restoration of organic farming and earthworms may entirely offset CO2 annual carbon excess of 4 Gt per year and drawdown the residual atmospheric excess.[31] (See Compost).
 
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Maybe in theory...but I ran a rather unscientific "poll" on what people might be willing to pay to offset their carbon footprint.

You asked people if they want free stuff and they said yes? I’m shocked, never in my life have I heard of people wanting free stuff.
 
----snipped massive denialist logic fails by RC----
"These sources report the sequestration of extra C from
regenerative management of between –2 and –4 t C ha–1 y–1 (–0.89 and –1.78 tn C ac–1 yr–1) compared to current management alternatives so we calculate GHG emission mitigation by regenerative, conservation grazing and cropping at –3 t C ha–1 y–1 (–1.2 tn C ac–1 yr–1; figures 1 and 2)"
Source:
The role of ruminants in reducing agriculture’s carbon footprint in North America W.R. Teague, S. Apfelbaum, R. Lal, U.P. Kreuter, J. Rowntree, C.A. Davies, R. Conser, M. Rasmussen, J. Hatfield, T. Wang, F. Wang, and P. Byck JOURNAL OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION MARCH/APRIL 2016 —VOL. 71, NO. 2

oops, published results trump your hocus pocus assumptions once again. Nordborg, Briske, and all the rest of the denialists who base their conclusions on assumptions and estimates and whoever "Seb V" is over at skeptical science (I suspect a Vegan with a chip on their shoulder)are all FALSIFIED by measured results.

See that's the great thing about science. The whole falsification of hypothesis thing. Learn to love it, not hate it.

It's been done, it's been measured, it's been peer reviewed and published. Now any assumptions estimates and hypotheses that claimed it was impossible are all falsified...hard. Time to make a new hypothesis.

You don't get to go back. Neither do your other denialists you list.

It's kinda like controlled flight after the Wright Brothers. Once they did it, none of the people who said it couldn't be done matter any more. The only thing left after that is to try and determine exactly how far it can be taken.

So once again, take your denialism and shove it. I am really tired of repeating this over and over to you.

You want to reverse AGW? reduce emissions and sequester more.
 
No, we hear that all the time, while the left pretends like every extreme weather event is the result of global warming. You know, like they are doing right now with the fires in Australia:

https://www.yaleclimateconnections....ge-influenced-australias-unprecedented-fires/

Your links actually disprove your point:
“Extreme fire weather days have increased at 24 out of 38 Australian sites from 1973-2010, due to warmer and drier conditions … [forest fire danger index] increase across southeast Australia is characterised by an extension of the fire season further into spring and autumn … partly driven by temperature increases that are attributable to climate change.”


Here's the left's favorite source for the truth about everything -- Politifact:

"Those claims about nearly 200 arrested for arson in the Australia bushfires are wrong"


https://www.politifact.com/facebook...claims-about-nearly-200-arrested-arson-austr/

Same again here:
Climate change is "not the cause of bushfires, but scientists have long warned that a hotter, drier climate would contribute to Australia's fires becoming more frequent and more intense."

Was this your intention, or are you just not very good at constructing strawmen?
 
More of the same cherry picking and a "massive denialist logic fails by RC" lie.
Published scientific papers deny Savory's unpublished claims and I agree with the scientific evidence that they present.
Savory's idea of a reversal of global warming to pre-industrial levels is debunked in a Skeptical Sceince climate myth article which cites many papers including Nordborg, M. (2016).

Savory is blatantly ignorant about climate science and a bad source of climate science:
Alan Savory's article is ignorant about the cause of global warming (it is CO2 not his fantasy of farm management).
A farmer/ecologist and his agricultural institute is a bad source of climate science and there is his obvious ignorance and no published papers!

I have cited the scientific evidence on agricultural carbon sequestration mitigating (not reversing) global warming.

The role of ruminants in reducing agriculture’s carbon footprint in North America by Teague, et. al (2016) does not say there will be "reversal of global warming to pre-industrial levels" which is Savory's claim. Teague, et. al (2016) cites current sequestration rates of up to 4 tonnes of C per ha year in the sources and uses 3 tonnes of C per ha year. Nordborg, M. (2016) starts with 3.8 tonnes of C per ha and year before HM is introduced and does a calculation over the next 100 years including the known fact that the soil carbon sequestration rate decreases to get 0.76 tonnes of C per ha year (less than 10% of current annual emissions). Teague et.al. (2016) debunks Savory's claim which needs ~8 tonnes of C per ha year just to remove current CO2 emissions!
 
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Science showing that Savory's global reversal by his HM is wrong

Savory's idea is that converting a billion hectares to his HM will cause reversal of global warming by sequestering C in soil and reducing atmospheric CO2 to pre-industrial levels.

Skeptical Sceince article with many references: Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
Multiple scientific studies from climate scientists and agricultural specialists show little or no significant gain in carbon sequestration on soils managed holistically to those with other grazing techniques. Even under the most favourable conditions, Holistic Management (HM) alone can only slow climate change by a small percentage, over a limited period, and certainly cannot reverse climate change.
The "little or no significant " is a bit exaggerated. It should be "not enough to support Savory's claim".

Holistic management – a critical review of Allan Savory's grazing method by Nordborg, M. (2016). (PDF), described at Holistic management – a critical review of Allan Savory’s grazing method.

The role of ruminants in reducing agriculture’s carbon footprint in North America by Teague, et. al (2016) has 3 tonnes of C per ha year sequesters which debunks Savory's claim which needs ~8 tonnes of C per ha year just to remove current CO2 emissions!

Nordborg, M. (2016) also makes the point that it is invalid to not account for emissions of methane from cattle. It is well established that the increasing concentration of methane in the atmosphere can largely be attributed
to the world’s increasing livestock population. This is something the Savory Institute tries to deny.
 
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Savory's idea is that converting a billion hectares to his HM will cause reversal of global warming by sequestering C in soil and reducing atmospheric CO2 to pre-industrial levels.

Skeptical Sceince article with many references: Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change

That article by Seb V over at skeptical science is wrong. Now you have continued to repeat the error.

I already explained it to you where the mistake was made.
So stop being so pig headed please. The article claims the Savory thinks only some sort of grazing changes would reverse AGW. This is false, and indicates a profound lack of understanding of holistic management. Savory has never claimed that ONLY grazing could reverse global warming. NEVER

Savory claims the eight tools for managing natural resources are money/labor, human creativity, grazing, animal impact, fire, rest, living organisms and science/technology. To be successful you need to use all these tools to the best of your ability.

So both you and Seb v made the same error in assuming when Savory claims only a holistic management using all the tools available to us can reverse global warming, he is talking about the broader holistic management, rather than the subset of holistic planned grazing. HM is not the same as or HPG.

More proof that his claims are very different that what some critics have proclaimed in their ignorance is found here.

A Global Strategy for Addressing Global Climate Change by Allan Savory

That is his actual plan, not the strawman found many places including over at skeptical science.

For any one who can actually read it is obvious.
A Two-Path Strategy is Essential for Combating Combat Climate Change

1) High Technology Path. "This path, based on mainstream reductionist science, is urgent and vital to the development of alternative energy sources to reduce or halt future emissions.
2) Low Technology Path. This path based on the emerging relationship science or holistic world view is vital for resolving the problem of grassland biomass burning, desertification and the safe storage of CO2, (legacy load) of heat trapping gases that already exist in the atmosphere."​
Not just restoring desertified land we destroyed with poor agricultural management practises, but rather BOTH reducing emissions AND restoring the desertified land back to productivity.

You repeat that strawman again, after I explained it to you in terms even a 3 years old child can understand, and all it proves is you are telling lies.

The "little or no significant " is a bit exaggerated. It should be "not enough to support Savory's claim".

Holistic management – a critical review of Allan Savory's grazing method by Nordborg, M. (2016). (PDF), described at Holistic management – a critical review of Allan Savory’s grazing method.

The role of ruminants in reducing agriculture’s carbon footprint in North America by Teague, et. al (2016) has 3 tonnes of C per ha year sequesters which debunks Savory's claim which needs ~8 tonnes of C per ha year just to remove current CO2 emissions!

You made a simple math error here RC. You forgot to convert C to CO2.

8 tonnes CO2e is the magic number, not 8 tonnes C.

3 t C /ha/yr X 44 t CO2 / 12 t C = 11 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr on average. and yes this is big enough to offset your 8 Tonnes CO2e.

Nordborg, M. (2016) also makes the point that it is invalid to not account for emissions of methane from cattle. It is well established that the increasing concentration of methane in the atmosphere can largely be attributed to the world’s increasing livestock population. This is something the Savory Institute tries to deny.

This is completely false. There is less biomass in animals than ever. We are in a dangerously low level worldwide of animals. Livestock do not even come close to making up for the lost herds of deer bison buffalo antelope birds and yes even insect number are dropping off the charts low as the Mass extinction that is the Anthropocene continues.

It is even false that increasing methane can be largely attributed to livestock. Only a very small % can even be attributed to livestock, much smaller than gas leaks and other sources like paddy rice production.

Furthermore if the cattle were raised on properly managed grasslands, they would be balanced by methanotroph activity, giving a net negative result.

Soil Microorganisms as Controllers of Atmospheric Trace Gases

All you are doing is repeating bad science RC. The very slight increase in methane from animal husbandry is caused by removing those animals from the land. Something absolutely different than Savory advises. In fact he has STRONGLY stated the opposite.

“The number one public enemy is the cow. But the number one tool that can save mankind is the cow. We need every cow we can get back out on the range. It is almost criminal to have them in feedlots which are inhumane, antisocial, and environmentally and economically unsound.” Allan Savory
 
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That article by Seb V over at skeptical science is wrong. .....
Usual errors about Science showing that Savory's global warming reversal by his HM is wrong.

Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
  1. Is about Savory's claim that HM alone can reverse global warming as stated by Savory in his TED talk in March 2013.
    Not in an undated, opinion article in a PDF on his web site by someone who has displayed ignorance of climate.
  2. Has a "What is Holistic Management?" section that explicitly covers only basic HM. i.e. your "grazing changes".
A "forgot to convert C to CO2" error. Savory's claim needs ~8 tonnes of C per ha year sequestered on 1 billion hectares just to remove current CO2 emissions. Teague, et. al (2016) has 3 tonnes of C per ha year. Convert both numbers to CO2 and Savory is still debunked.
ETA: Savory's original claim was the fantasy of converting 5 billion hectares (a third of the world's land - I guess we can say goodbye to the Amazon rain forest :p!) to his HM. The Savory Institute has a more reasonable 1 billion ha goal.

Ignorance about methane from cattle which is not "biomass in animals". Cattle fart and burp methane. A cow burps and farts between 160 to 320 litres of methane per day.

Ignorance about past numbers of ruminants compared to present numbers.
Holistic management – a critical review of Allan Savory's grazing method by Nordborg, M. (2016).
The idea that ruminant populations have historically been ‘very large’ appears to be pure speculation. Available estimate indicate that the global population of wild ruminants has decreased during the past 500 years, but if both domestic and wild ruminants are considered (cattle, buffaloes, horses and wild ruminants), the population has increased by more than a factor 6 during the past 500 years. During the same period, the number of cattle alone increased by more than a factor of 20. For more information, see Appendix 8.
Currently: Greater than 3.8 billion domestic animals.
About 1500: Domestic cattle, buffaloes and horses (no sheep or goat data) estimated to be 130 million animals with another 165 million wild ruminants.
 
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Usual errors about Science showing that Savory's global warming reversal by his HM is wrong.

Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
  1. Is about Savory's claim that HM alone can reverse global warming as stated by Savory in his TED talk in March 2013.
    Not in an undated, opinion article in a PDF on his web site by someone who has displayed ignorance of climate.
  2. Has a "What is Holistic Management?" section that explicitly covers only basic HM. i.e. your "grazing changes".
A "forgot to convert C to CO2" error. Savory's claim needs ~8 tonnes of C per ha year sequestered on 1 billion hectares just to remove current CO2 emissions. Teague, et. al (2016) has 3 tonnes of C per ha year. Convert both numbers to CO2 and Savory is still debunked.
ETA: Savory's original claim was the fantasy of converting 5 billion hectares (a third of the world's land - I guess we can say goodbye to the Amazon rain forest :p!) to his HM. The Savory Institute has a more reasonable 1 billion ha goal.

Ignorance about methane from cattle which is not "biomass in animals". Cattle fart and burp methane. A cow burps and farts between 160 to 320 litres of methane per day.

Ignorance about past numbers of ruminants compared to present numbers.
Holistic management – a critical review of Allan Savory's grazing method by Nordborg, M. (2016).

Currently: Greater than 3.8 billion domestic animals.
About 1500: Domestic cattle, buffaloes and horses (no sheep or goat data) estimated to be 130 million animals with another 165 million wild ruminants.
just another denialist talking point RC. Tell me please how much in those calculations of methane emissions did Nordborg include for methanotroph activity?

What was his calculation of net emissions?
 
Savory is blatantly ignorant about climate science and a bad climate science source

Savory is blatantly ignorant about climate science and a bad source of climate science.
Alan Savory's article is ignorant about the cause of global warming (it is CO2 not his fantasy of farm management).
A farmer/ecologist and his agricultural institute is a bad source of climate science and there is his obvious ignorance and no published papers!

Savory and his institute tried to deny the established correlation between ruminants, their emitted methane and global warming to justify his neglect of methane produced by his HM. Holistic management – a critical review of Allan Savory's grazing method by Nordborg, M. (2016)
The science is that there is an correlation between ruminants, their emitted methane and global warming.

Savory and his institute have the error of past 'large" number of ruminants when the evidence is that numbers of ruminants have increased 6 fold over the last 500 years. That is an amazing bit of ignorance or error for an agricultural specialist!
 

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