Cont: Global warming discussion V

[Roger Ramjets]

and even using ICE engines new designs are coming with longer ranges and less fuel consumption.

Ah yes, where have we heard that before?

Boeing to build braced-wing airliner, shooting for 30% efficiency gain

30% 'efficiency gain' vs 3 times more air traffic - which will have more effect? And unlike electric cars, which have been on our roads for many years, it will take many years for the aviation industry to fully certify radically different designs.

The last time Boeing tried to eke out a few percent gain with lithium batteries it didn't turn out so well.

I'm all for reduced aircraft emissions and can't wait to see electric planes flying, but I'm also a realist. I've been building and flying electric model aircraft since 1998 and seen huge advances over that time. Full-size aircraft use the same principles and similar parameters, so I know it will take even bigger advances (eg. batteries with many times greater energy/weight ratio) to replace ICE aircraft with electric for all but short hop services. With help from the auto industry this may eventually happen, but not overnight.

Yes it will be difficult but far from impossible to decarbon air travel but it is a work very much in progress......I don't hear much about curbing fast fashion.

Google has 29 pages of news articles about fast fashion, like this one from May 2022:-

New EU rules to target fast fashion chains

New rules proposed by the EU's executive arm call for a mandatory minimum use of recycled fibers by 2030 and would ban the destruction of many unsold products. The rules could include easier repair of clothing and making clothes more durable. New rules proposed state that smartphones, clothes and furniture will have to become more durable, easier to repair and recycle... ‘All textiles should be long lasting, recyclable, made of recycled fibres and free of dangerous substances,’ stated the EU Commission VP.

Fast fashion is unsustainable but is unfortunately a large part of the clothing industry.

The industry is responsible for 10% of annual carbon emissions globally.

See what they did there?

But...

Textile has the fourth highest impact on the environment and climate change, following food, housing and transport.

So maybe you haven't heard much about 'fast fashion' until now because food, housing and transport have much greater impact. Just look at the average citizen's expenditure on those items and you will see where the real problem lies. But hey, why question driving CO₂ belching automobiles, living in suburban McMansions and overeating intensively farmed food, when we can deflect blame onto something more 'worthy' of our derision?

 

[Aridas]

So maybe you haven't heard much about 'fast fashion' until now because food, housing and transport have much greater impact. Just look at the average citizen's expenditure on those items and you will see where the real problem lies. But hey, why question driving CO₂ belching automobiles, living in suburban McMansions and overeating intensively farmed food, when we can deflect blame onto something more 'worthy' of our derision?

At what point did this become some singular focus thing? By the look of it, the only reason why the fast fashion topic has lasted this long was because of a select few who were dismissing it completely by seemingly conflating it with the modern clothing industry or all nice looking clothes as a whole. Fast fashion is "just clothes" and anyone who would prefer action about fast fashion wants all of us to be wearing sackcloth and rags kind of BS. By those standards, homeopathic medicine is just medicine and anyone who thinks that action should (keep) be(ing) taken to limit its use hates modern medicine as a whole. Utterly absurd fallacy, in short.

Any remotely objective evaluation of the fast fashion arguments actually made keeps it clear that anything to do with it can only be one part of a much larger effort if we want to deal with the problems actually at hand. As it stands, when you're making arguments like this, though, all you seem to be saying is that the clothing industry should be uniquely immune to being included in comprehensive multi-faceted efforts to address the problems at hand.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Some good news,
Pennsylvania’s largest coal plant is shutting down in July

The 1,888-megawatt (MW) plant, located around 50 miles east of Pittsburgh, was built near coal reserves and included what was then a high-capacity (345-kilovolt) transmission line to service areas in western New York and Eastern Pennsylvania.

It began to generate electricity in 1969 when Units 1 and 2 entered service. Unit 3 was added in 1977. For 30 years, the plant operated almost continuously, achieving a utilization rate, called a capacity factor, near 90%...

By 2022, the capacity factor had dropped to 20%, contributing to the decision to retire the plant, along with “the low price of natural gas, a dramatic spike in the cost of its ongoing coal supply, unseasonably warm winters, and increasingly stringent environmental regulations,” according to William Wexler, CEO of Homer City Generation, in a written statement.

Hmm, I wonder what caused those "unseasonably warm winters"?

 

[Roger Ramjets]

More good news.

Swiss approve net-zero climate law

Swiss voters have backed a new law that seeks to accelerate the country’s shift from fossil fuels to renewable energies and reach zero emissions by 2050.

In all, 59.1% of voters approved the government’s new climate and innovation lawExternal link on Sunday, according to the final results. The turnout was around 42%. The government and all major parties, except for the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, had called to vote in favour of the bill.

The law... uses a carrot-not-stick approach: no taxes or compulsory action but instead financial support – CHF3.2 billion ($3.2 billion) over ten years – for homeowners to replace electric, gas or oil heating systems with more climate-friendly systems like heat pumps. Businesses will also be incentivised to invest in green technologies.

The new law was supported by a broad alliance, including most political parties, the government, the cantons, cities and municipalities. And unlike for the failed CO2 vote in 2021, this time most of the business community and lobby groups like the Swiss business federation (economiesuisse) and environmental groups were behind it.

With temperatures in Switzerland increasing 2-3 times faster than the global average, businesses there are finally understanding the effect more warming will have on their bottom line. 30% more winter rain, 50% fewer snow days, 60% lower glacier volume, and snow lines up 300-400m so far, with worse to come.

Though apparently the right wing Swiss People’s Party aren't that into skiing, and would put up with more rain and heat waves to avoid foreign tourists.

 

[arthwollipot]

China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time

Beijing bolstering position as global renewables leader with solar capacity more than rest of world combined


China is shoring up its position as the world leader in renewable power and potentially outpacing its own ambitious energy targets, a report has found.

China is set to double its capacity and produce 1,200 gigawatts of energy through wind and solar power by 2025, reaching its 2030 goal five years ahead of time, according to the report by Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based NGO that tracks operating utility-scale wind and solar farms as well as future projects in the country.

It says that as of the first quarter of the year, China’s utility-scale solar capacity has reached 228GW, more than that of the rest of the world combined. The installations are concentrated in the country’s north and north-west provinces, such as Shanxi, Xinjiang and Hebei.

In addition, the group identified solar farms under construction that could add another 379GW in prospective capacity, triple that of the US and nearly double that of Europe...

 

[The Atheist]

Here's two headlines that go together very nicely:

UK plans to drop flagship £11.6bn climate pledge

Monday was hottest day for global average temperature on record

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Here's two headlines that go together very nicely:

UK plans to drop flagship £11.6bn climate pledge

“Claims that the international climate finance pledge is being dropped are false. As the prime minister set out at Cop27, the government remains committed to spending £11.6bn on international climate finance and we are delivering on that pledge.”

 

[The Atheist]

“Claims that the international climate finance pledge is being dropped are false. As the prime minister set out at Cop27, the government remains committed to spending £11.6bn on international climate finance and we are delivering on that pledge.”

Yes, of course we should trust the words of the very government that released the paper the article is based on.

You might well trust Rishi and his pals. Personally, I wouldn't trust them as far as I throw the Houses of Parliament.
___________________________________

Meanwhile, the new temperature record set Monday lasted a whole day!

Tuesday sets a new record.

No doubt that record will be broken a couple of times in the coming weeks.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

You might well trust Rishi and his pals. Personally, I wouldn't trust them as far as I throw the Houses of Parliament.

Such a good little skeptic you are.

Considering the economic devastation caused by Brexit, combined with Covid and the Ukraine war, I'm not surprised the UK government is having difficulty meeting their commitments. But I will take them at their word until I see actual evidence to the contrary. I don't trust the media to get their story straight on issues like this.

 

[Aridas]

Hmm?

‘It was an accident’: the scientists who have turned humid air into renewable power

Not that much, but if it's possible to scale it up in a cost-effective way and meet the rest of the engineering challenges, that might help reduce pollution related to electricity generation significantly. At least in areas that are humid enough. Not gonna hold my breath, but it would be nice to see it succeed.

 

[The Atheist]

No doubt that record will be broken a couple of times in the coming weeks.

Well, duh. Shoulda said "days".

Broken again Wednesday and Thursday.

That's four; one, two, three, four consecutive days of record temperature for the planet.

Excellent graph here: https://www.axios.com/2023/07/07/earth-four-hottest-days-thursday

 

[newyorkguy]

Here's two headlines that go together very nicely:

UK plans to drop flagship £11.6bn climate pledge

Monday was hottest day for global average temperature on record

They also illustrate why some scientists have come to believe the window of opportunity for avoiding future catastrophe has closed. One gentleman told the New Yorker magazine several years ago, that human society's fatal flaw was our inability to reach a political consensus on climate change and what to do about it. When the effects begin to become truly catastrophic, it will be way too late to take effective action and civilization as we know it will become unsustainable. But that this is nothing new. The disappearance of species -- in this case the human specie -- is routine. That the natural world will not mourn or even note our passing.

Pretty negative viewpoint but consider the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chart below:

[IMGW=400]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=1474&pictureid=13596[/IMGW]

Despite all the studies and hyperbole, greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. By a lot.

 

[The Atheist]

They also illustrate why some scientists have come to believe the window of opportunity for avoiding future catastrophe has closed. One gentleman told the New Yorker magazine several years ago, that human society's fatal flaw was our inability to reach a political consensus on climate change and what to do about it. When the effects begin to become truly catastrophic, it will be way too late to take effective action and civilization as we know it will become unsustainable. But that this is nothing new. The disappearance of species -- in this case the human specie -- is routine. That the natural world will not mourn or even note our passing.

Pretty negative viewpoint but consider the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chart below:

Despite all the studies and hyperbole, greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. By a lot.

I can't disagree with a single word, and it pretty well sums up how I see it.

I think that even if we made a species-wide effort - which we won't - the number of feedback loops in operation won't be able to be stopped.

 

[Mr Clingford]

I disagree in one respect, that humans will go extinct. The rich and powerful will survive.

 

[Trebuchet]

I disagree in one respect, that humans will go extinct. The rich and powerful will survive.

But who will wash their clothes and cook their food?

 

[lomiller]

I disagree in one respect, that humans will go extinct. The rich and powerful will survive.

At some point economic systems break down. Think of Covid supply chain issues on steroids.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

They also illustrate why some scientists have come to believe the window of opportunity for avoiding future catastrophe has closed...

Pretty negative viewpoint

Oh well I guess that's it then. Can't stop it, so why try? - said global warming deniers everywhere.

No, the 'window of opportunity' hasn't closed. But the longer we procrastinate the harder it will be to get through.

It's all about cost vs benefit. When people see that letting global warming continue is worse than stopping it, the tide will turn quickly. There will be a lot more death and hardship than there could have been, but that's normal. People don't make an effort until they are at crisis point.

When the effects begin to become truly catastrophic, it will be way too late to take effective action and civilization as we know it will become unsustainable.

The current population is unsustainable even without global warming. So either we become sustainable, or the population shrinks until we do. Global warming just hastens the process.

The rich and powerful will survive.

Most will survive. The rich should be worried though, because we will eat them first.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

At some point economic systems break down. Think of Covid supply chain issues on steroids.

Imagine if we had no cars, no trains, no airplanes, no electricity, no factories. It's not hard to imagine. 200 years ago we had none of that. Yet 200 years ago we had advanced civilizations with thriving economies.

Covid is actually a good test case. The supply chain issues it caused are nothing compared to other events we have had to weather. Most of us hardly even noticed it. Covid proved that a population could be supported by a much smaller workforce if prioritized to producing only what we need.

 

[wobs]

GWs of coal power approved by China per year:
Year Gigawatts
2019 13.91
2020 46.1
2021 18.55
2022 90.72
2023 Q1 20.25

 

[Roger Ramjets]

GWs of coal power approved by China per year:
Year Gigawatts
2019 13.91
2020 46.1
2021 18.55
2022 90.72
2023 Q1 20.25

Note that this is capacity, not actual power generated. The average utilization rate of Chinese coal power plants in 2022 was only 52%. Much of the increased capacity is being installed to provide a backup in case hydro lakes run dry and other renewables can't supply enough.

According to the IEA, China is expected to add 207GW of wind and solar capacity in 2023, and 224GW in 2024. If this trend continues coal power plants will be running at even lower utilization rates.

But why build new coal plants when existing ones are not being fully utilized? One reason is that China is a big country and its power grid is not well integrated. They are working on that though, with UHVDC transmission lines of up to 3,300 km.

Another factor is factories and homes burning coal or oil for local power generation and heating. A large central power station is a lot more efficient, so new coal plants are actually expected to reduce pollution when users switch to grid electricity. Then as renewables ramp up emissions will automatically reduce even more.