Cont: Global warming discussion V

[Red Baron Farms]

Not about to be shoved back into a bottle anytime soon, and incapable of doing the same, or capable but with difficulty, are three entirely different things.

We know how to fix it. It's not even difficult. In fact it can even be done at a profit.

Will we do it? Unlikely. But the reason it is unlikely in my opinion, as Neoluddites are not willing to give up their billions in subsidies for types of agriculture that cause AGW any more than the fossil fuel companies are willing to give up their subsidies, has nothing to do with difficulty sequestering CO2.

Can we? Yes
Will we? Unlikely

 

[Trakar]

El Niño/La Niña

Looks like we've still got La Nina conditions lingering, though that seems to be shifting/transitional right now, and is most likely to become ENSO - neutral by spring...:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season)...

La Niña is anticipated to continue affecting temperature and precipitation across the United States during the next few months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday February 15th). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States...

 

[macdoc]

I can attest to the latter First time in a decade I'm not Down Under

 

[Trakar]

I can attest to the latter First time in a decade I'm not Down Under

I can understand that, I'm more in the N. Cal., S. Ore region, though I am contemplating a N. Wa move in the next decade, so the precip rates are more an issue, but it's helping (so far) more than hurting, with some bad luck, it could get less pleasant with a minor ripple of the jet stream (or wiggle of the climate "MoJO" - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care -).

 

[lomiller]

Confirmation that sea level rise is accelerating.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/02/06/1717312115

 

[macdoc]

Swinging jet stream is crazy as Arctic intrusions to the south alternate with too warm.

-15 last night, +5 today going to +10 next week. Very odd Feb....yet very warm again in the Arctic

Is warming in the Arctic behind this year's crazy winter weather?

Jan 11, 2018 - A very new and “hot topic” in climate change research is the notion that rapid warming and wholesale melting of the Arctic may be playing a role in causing persistent cold spells ... Weird and destructive weather was in the news almost constantly during 2017, and 2018 seems to be following the same script.

https://theconversation.com/is-warming-in-the-arctic-behind-this-years-crazy-winter-weather-89740

gets expensive this erratic weather

Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Overview

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

 

[macdoc]

Soil cannot halt climate change
Long-term field experiments, dating back as far as 1843, demonstrate that modern carbon emissions cannot be locked in the ground to halt global warmingDate:
February 28, 2018
Source:
Rothamsted Research
Summary:
Unique soils data from long-term experiments, stretching back to the middle of the nineteenth century, confirm the practical implausibility of burying carbon in the ground to halt climate change. The idea of using crops to collect more atmospheric carbon and locking it into soil's organic matter to offset fossil fuel emissions was launched at COP21, the 21st annual Conference of Parties to review the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris in 2015.

more
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180228134114.htm

Meanwhile back in the real world.

'Wacky' weather makes Arctic warmer than parts of Europe - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/.../wacky-weather-makes-arctic-warmer-than-parts-of-...
3 days ago - On the northern tip of Greenland, the Cape Morris Jesup meteorological site has had a record-smashing 61 hours of temperatures above freezing so far in 2018, linked to a rare retreat of sea ice in the Arctic winter darkness. “It's never been this extreme,” said Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist at the Danish ...

interesting times...

 

[Belz...]

Ok so let's plant 5-6 billion trees...

 

[macdoc]

pittance

3.04 trillion trees
The study found that there are around 3.04 trillion trees

and we are losing more than that

Around 15 billion are lost every year due to deforestation, forest management and changes in land use, the research published in the journal Nature found.

 

[Distracted1]

pittance



and we are losing more than that

Astounding.

 

[macdoc]

Impact on ocean nutrient flow ....better buy fishing rights near the Antarctic ....climate change is erecting a trade barrier...

FLOODING, HEAT WAVES, AND DESTABILIZED ECOSYSTEMS: HERE'S WHAT THE NEXT 100 YEARS OF CLIMATE CHANGE COULD BRING

A new study predicts a steep drop in fisheries' production. It's the latest in a growing body of research to show how changes to the Earth's ecosystems will cause disruption to its inhabitants.

https://psmag.com/environment/climate-change-timeline

snip

The disappearance of sea ice disrupts the flow of nutrients to northern marine ecosystems, says study author J. Keith Moore, a professor of Earth system science at the University of California–Irvine and one of the developers of the Community Earth System Model that enables researchers to predict further into the future. As the ice melts, the production of phytoplankton, a microscopic plant-like organism at the bottom of the marine food chain, increases around Antarctica. However, as the ice melts, the phytoplankton absorb more sunlight and trap more nutrients in the Antarctic sea area. This causes significantly more nutrients to sink to the deep southern ocean instead of moving northward to other marine ecosystems. "In upper oceans, everywhere to the north, you start to see this steadily declining nutrient concentration," Moore says.

 

[Trakar]

Impact on ocean nutrient flow ....better buy fishing rights near the Antarctic ....climate change is erecting a trade barrier...



https://psmag.com/environment/climate-change-timeline

snip

I wonder about the extent of the willingness of the international community to establish a shifting network of global, protected, international, aquaculture nurseries and a system of sustainable international harvest seasons/permits/policing. Regardless of whether or not they want to deal (seriously and appropriately) with the causes of climate change, they are going to have to adapt to the realities of climate change consequences.

 

[carlosy]

Maybe the daily Trumputistan show is supressing the real desasters...

Global warming and it's desasters are happening, right now.
Many new record temperatures across the northern hemisphere.
Draught in europe and elsewhere.
German farmers expecting crop failure up to 70%, calling for compensations of one billion euros.
Etc.

Extreme weather, including record temperatures and heatwaves, drought and disastrous precipitation, has marked the first half of summer in the northern hemisphere. This has had widespread impacts on human health, agriculture, ecosystems and infrastructure and led to devastating wildfires.
...
On June 28, Quriyat, just south of Muscat, on the coast of Oman, recorded a 24-hour minimum temperature of 42.6°C, meaning that the coolest overnight temperature did not drop below that level. Although highest “low” temperature is not currently monitored as a category in the WMO Weather and Climate Extremes Archive, it is believed to be the highest such temperature ever recorded by a thermometer.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/july-sees-extreme-weather-high-impacts


42.6°C lowest at night, good lord.

 

[Fudbucker]

The hottest-ever record was set in 1913. Why hasn't a new record been set since then?

 

[Reality Check]

The hottest-ever record was set in 1913. Why hasn't a new record been set since then?

Is that the irrelevant to global temperatures and climate Death Valley temperature? The hottest global temperature was 2016.

 

[Venom]

The hottest-ever record was set in 1913. Why hasn't a new record been set since then?

Just wait.

But those records are by definition anomalies anyway, a particular location on Earth at one time. In the Guinness World Records it's the "hottest recorded temperature on Earth".

 

[lomiller]

The hottest-ever record was set in 1913. Why hasn't a new record been set since then?

Hottest ever record for what?

 

[Red Baron Farms]

The hottest-ever record was set in 1913. Why hasn't a new record been set since then?

Probably a recording or instrument error. It is possible, but pretty unlikely to be true. The undisputed highest ever record temp was in 2013 in Death Valley.

However, what does this have to do with AGW? Which is an average increase in temps over the entire planet in a 30 year + period? One high temp for a couple hours, even if it was true on one tiny canyon in California, is a far cry from the whole world averaged over 30+ years!

I think what has happened is you were reading some merchants of doubt sponsored bull pucky designed to obfuscate the reality of AGW.

 

[Fudbucker]

Probably a recording or instrument error. It is possible, but pretty unlikely to be true. The undisputed highest ever record temp was in 2013 in Death Valley.

However, what does this have to do with AGW? Which is an average increase in temps over the entire planet in a 30 year + period? One high temp for a couple hours, even if it was true on one tiny canyon in California, is a far cry from the whole world averaged over 30+ years!

I think what has happened is you were reading some merchants of doubt sponsored bull pucky designed to obfuscate the reality of AGW.

I don't doubt agw. Just was curious why record has lasted so long.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I don't doubt agw. Just was curious why record has lasted so long.

AGW brings higher global average temperature but also higher variability. There are regions of the planet that aren't warming at an important rate. Also, the higher variability makes both high and low temperatures to reach extreme records. They key is that record-breaking highs fourfold record-breaking lows, as it is consistent with higher variability in a context of average temperature going higher and higher.

That said. There's the problem that so far this analysis doesn't take into account variations in the very same weather stations that give those old and new records. Bad placement, bad maintenance, etc can bring anomalous values. That is currently extremely rare in the First World, but not in 1913.

I don't have the faintest idea which old record are you talking about, but if it is an extremely high temperature in an extremely dry place like a desert then that temperature heavily depends on solar irradiation. And that hasn't basically change since 1913.