Global warming discussion IV

[macdoc]

There is still a ton of heat in the oceans tho it's a mild La Nina. I'm still curious as to the ability of cyclonic storms to transfer heat to atmosphere and ultimately out.

For instance this year is predicted to be a very high cyclone year for Australia..I wonder how much a role they play in global and ocean temps or are they mostly closed cycles returning warm rain to a mildly cooled ocean surface below.

 

[macdoc]

I guess given the Dumpf in the White House the mitigation effort seems moot.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I guess given the Dumpf in the White House the mitigation effort seems moot.

... or an opportunity to have high tariffs on products from polluting countries, meaning China and Trumpland.

 

[aleCcowaN]

As the sea ice thread is an Arctic one (when I'm back I'll be starting a "2017 Sea Ice Thread") and the Antarctic sea ice is way more important than the Arctic's, I'm commenting this here:

To date -four weeks before the Summer solstice- , the Antarctic sea ice is 2.7 million square kilometres lower than 2014's. I'm currently away from my collection of links, self-updating databases and academic contacts, so I can't check the actual values, but just by eyeballing it, I can tell that the whole planet is absorbing about 0.3% more heat just because this anomally. Fortunately that effect is not short-termed as otherwise it could rise global temperatures 0.2ºC by itself.

The change here is that we may be soon facing record lows both in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice.

*sorry, no spell checker nor dictionaries*

 

[Trakar]

As the sea ice thread is an Arctic one (when I'm back I'll be starting a "2017 Sea Ice Thread") and the Antarctic sea ice is way more important than the Arctic's, I'm commenting this here:

To date -four weeks before the Summer solstice- , the Antarctic sea ice is 2.7 million square kilometres lower than 2014's. I'm currently away from my collection of links, self-updating databases and academic contacts, so I can't check the actual values, but just by eyeballing it, I can tell that the whole planet is absorbing about 0.3% more heat just because this anomally. Fortunately that effect is not short-termed as otherwise it could rise global temperatures 0.2ºC by itself.

The change here is that we may be soon facing record lows both in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice.

*sorry, no spell checker nor dictionaries*

Yeah just saw the global sea ice charts (1) and saw the weird little arctic ice plateau (2).

Strange days these are.


1.- https://www.newscientist.com/articl...as-reached-a-record-low-should-we-be-worried/


2. - http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-sea-ice-record-low-20903

 

[macdoc]

Almost sounds as if something happened to let warm water in under the ice for that reversal...

Wasn't one of the last big shelves in the process of disintegrating ...Larson A maybe.....change the flow of currents perhaps?

Larson C that is - not sure what impact but seems odd with these big shelves transforming into floating ice that the cover suddenly drops
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=88708

This was the Larsen B dissolving

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2a3Oemo1e4

 

[aleCcowaN]

Yeah just saw the global sea ice charts (1) and saw the weird little arctic ice plateau (2).

Strange days these are.


1.- https://www.newscientist.com/articl...as-reached-a-record-low-should-we-be-worried/


2. - http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-sea-ice-record-low-20903

During November the Arctic Sea Ice volume has been a record low day after day. Even lower than 2011's, when the 2012 record low was in the oven. Even lower than 2012's, when it was bouncing back from unprecedented low values.

*sigh* back to the concrete swamp *double sigh*

 

[Trakar]

During November the Arctic Sea Ice volume has been a record low day after day. Even lower than 2011's, when the 2012 record low was in the oven. Even lower than 2012's, when it was bouncing back from unprecedented low values.

*sigh* back to the concrete swamp *double sigh*

"Concrete Swamp" awesome in its oxymoronic construction!!

I wonder if we don't need to expand the Sea-ice thread to one focused on both polar regions?

Lots of discussion on the regions in both the journals and the press. The poles aren't just the canaries in the coal mine, they are the key drivers of many of our planet's tipping point reservoirs and systems. Warming poles don't just mean warmer poles, the impacts are global.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Antarctic sea ice almost in a record low to date. There are more than 3.5 million square kilometres of sea ice less than the same month during 2014. That means that the Southern ocean is gaining some extra 0.15-.20 x 10²² Joules this December. It's amazing! (the global ocean up to 2000m has gained 100 times more during the last ... 30 years together!).

With ENSO bouncing back to neutral we're up for a year with regional records, though it's unlikely 2017 will be the fourth back to back hottest record.

 

[Reality Check]

So Here’s Another Thing Global Warming Causes: Catastrophic Glacial Avalanches
Normally glaciers retreat at a slow pace but there have been instances of glaciers surging, e.g. the 2002 surge of the Kolka Glacier that killed 125 people.

What is distinctive about these 2 avalanches in western Tibet is that surging is cyclic but these are the first recorded instances in the area. They were also faster than other surges. The probable explanation is global warming. The previous winter had a high snowfall which would melt and lubricate the interface between the glacier and underlying bedrock. Thus allowing the surge and making it faster than normal.

 

[aleCcowaN]

JMA released its preliminary value for the global average surface temperature anomaly during last November: 0.28°C above normals.

So far, the first 11 months of 2016 are 0.45°C above normals. As they have 2015 and its +0.42°C as their previous yearly record, it suffices for December to be just 0.08°C above normals for this year to become the third back to back hottest year on records, which is almost a certainty now.

Next year's will become most probably the third hottest year on record; unlikely the fourth one (behind 2014) and extremely unlikely the fifth one (behind 1998). So the usual pumpkins will probably start to talk about the ... re-pause? menopause?

 

[macdoc]

You channeling Roy Spencer??

UAH Global Temperature Update for November 2016: +0.45 deg. C ...
www.drroyspencer.com/2016/.../uah-global-temperature-update-for-november-2016-0-...
C. December 1st, 2016 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. November ... 2016 11 +0.45 + 0.41 +0.50 +0.37. To see how we are ...... I notice that the running, centred 13 month mean is now above 0.5C for the first time in the UAH record. Hiatus, anyone?

Why don't you use the numbers that NOAA uses or the Paris agreement is based on instead of playing the deniers game..

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for October 2016 tied with 2003 as the third highest for October in the 137-year period of record, at 0.73°C (1.31°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F).

or

2016 will be the hottest year on record, UN says | Environment | The ...
https://www.theguardian.com › Environment › Climate change
Nov 14, 2016 - ... Organisation figures show global temperature is 1.2C above pre-industrial levels and will set a new ... Monday 14 November 2016 06.02 EST.

in keeping with the Paris accord targets

Paris Agreement | Climate Action
https://ec.europa.eu › ... › International action on climate change › Climate negotiations
Paris Agreement. ... a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels;; to aim to limit the ...

 

[aleCcowaN]

You channeling Roy Spencer??



Why don't you use the numbers that NOAA uses or the Paris agreement is based on instead of playing the deniers game..

Your hydrochloric acid is too diluted as to amount to vitriol.

All main 3 sets of temperature measure the same with minimal differences (NOAA's is about 0.07°C above the others because it contains certainties in the polar regions that come from observations up to 1,400 km apart and without point of comparison 75 years ago).

I am not to amend the JMA's set, serious as it is, just to conform to yet another noisy North American who lives in a society which amounts to a lot of global warming in the past and in the future, and which, from Trump to Toe, like to live under the green-house-gas-emanating candlelights

 

[Trakar]

JMA released its preliminary value for the global average surface temperature anomaly during last November: 0.28°C above normals.

So far, the first 11 months of 2016 are 0.45°C above normals. As they have 2015 and its +0.42°C as their previous yearly record, it suffices for December to be just 0.08°C above normals for this year to become the third back to back hottest year on records, which is almost a certainty now.

Next year's will become most probably the third hottest year on record; unlikely the fourth one (behind 2014) and extremely unlikely the fifth one (behind 1998). So the usual pumpkins will probably start to talk about the ... re-pause? menopause?

Season's Greetings!

To one, and all!

Ironically, I'm on my way up to Canada!
(no worries, it's a vacation, not a migration,...yet.)

 

[aleCcowaN]

Season's Greetings!

To one, and all!

Ironically, I'm on my way up to Canada!
(no worries, it's a vacation, not a migration,...yet.)

Greetings, professor Falken!

Don't worry, I'm sure the fauna from the 48 contiguous is already migrating. Not to be an alarmist, but it wouldn't surprise me if within the next century you may find alligators in New Brunswick, coyotes in Manitoba and a conservative health system in Alberta.

 

[Trakar]

Greetings, professor Falken!

Don't worry, I'm sure the fauna from the 48 contiguous is already migrating. Not to be an alarmist, but it wouldn't surprise me if within the next century you may find alligators in New Brunswick, coyotes in Manitoba and a conservative health system in Alberta.

I'm more worried about criminal Americans invading the north!

My "vacation" was to spend some time at a retreat cabin I have up near the Canadian border in South Eastern Alaska (on the mainland side of the little island chain that runs up the west coast to Alaska proper). I got a call from some friends who said when they were up moose hunting they ran into a whole group of young kids (late teens early twenties) who seemed to be staying up at my place. Other than leaving the place a horrible mess, eating a bunch of food stores, and "borrowing" nearly 50 gallons of gasoline, they didn't do too much damage.

Traditionally, we've always left the doors secured but unlocked, some food and water stores, some firewood, and a few full 10 gallon cans of gasoline in case people got stuck out there and needed a place to get out of the weather in an emergency. Never had any trouble before, but this was a mess! Locked everything up and have both the Mounties and Alaskan State patrol checking it out periodically now. I've spent all week cleaning, repairing and restocking and fortifying the place with alarm systems and an automatic notification system that will let me and others know if anyone comes up there in the future.

Perhaps Canada does need a southern wall!

That all said, while everything is frozen pretty good right now, it is easy to see what the last couple of years of warming consequences have done to the forests, roads, and homesteads, and it isn't pretty.

 

[macdoc]

Coyotes are common in Manitoba .....and Toronto.

It was possums overwintering under the porch in Ontario ....that clued me in on creeping climate change

possum's used ta be suthron critters....

 

[macdoc]

some positive news for once

Deep stores of carbon in northern peatlands may be safe from rising temperatures, according to a team of researchers from several U.S.-based institutions.
And that is good news for now, the researchers said.
Florida State University research scientist Rachel Wilson and University of Oregon graduate student Anya Hopple are the first authors on a new study published today in Nature Communications. The study details experiments suggesting that carbon stored in peat—a highly organic material found in marsh or damp regions—may not succumb to the Earth's warming as easily as scientists thought.
That means if these northern peatlands—found in the upper half of the northern hemisphere—remain flooded, a substantial amount of carbon will not be released into the atmosphere.
"We do see some breakdown of peat on the surface, but not below 2 feet deep, where the bulk of the carbon is stored," Wilson said.


Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-12-global-temperatures-affect-carbon-deep.html#jCp

 

[aleCcowaN]

Perhaps Canada does need a southern wall!

How do you know those riotous freeloader youngsters were Usaians and not Canadian? Did they pronounce /a'baΩt/?

Coyotes are common in Manitoba .....and Toronto.

Yes, I learnt it when it was too late.

 

[lomiller]

Coyotes are common in Manitoba .....and Toronto.
[/qimg]

Coywolves are not but that’s a different problem than climate change. Probably different anyway.