macdoc
Philosopher
Knowledge base moves forward....since the strength of the El Ninos seems on the rise....best to understand the impact...
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http://phys.org/news/2015-12-current-climate-misrepresent-el-nino.html
Current climate models misrepresent El Nino
December 15, 2015
El Nino
The 1997 El Nino seen by TOPEX/Poseidon. Credit: NASA
An analysis of fossil corals and mollusk shells from the Pacific Ocean reveals there is no link between the strength of seasonal differences and El Niño, a complex but irregular climate pattern with large impacts on weather, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, and air quality worldwide.
The finding contradicts the top nine climate models in use today, which associate exceptionally hot summers and cold winters with weak El Niños, and vice versa.
"The idea behind this link is based on very well-established physics, so it's appealing to think that nature works this way. But our analysis shows that it's not that simple," said Julien Emile-Geay, lead author of a study contradicting the models and assistant professor of Earth Sciences at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences.
His study was published on December 14 in the journal Nature Geoscience.
Emile-Geay checked the models against data collected by his coauthors on shells and fossil corals spanning the Holocene period - the last 10,000 years of Earth's history. The period had similar geography, amounts of ice and levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, making it a good analogue for today's climate.
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http://phys.org/news/2015-12-current-climate-misrepresent-el-nino.html





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