• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Global warming discussion IV

Status
Not open for further replies.
Knowledge base moves forward....since the strength of the El Ninos seems on the rise....best to understand the impact...


Current climate models misrepresent El Nino
December 15, 2015
El Nino
The 1997 El Nino seen by TOPEX/Poseidon. Credit: NASA
An analysis of fossil corals and mollusk shells from the Pacific Ocean reveals there is no link between the strength of seasonal differences and El Niño, a complex but irregular climate pattern with large impacts on weather, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, and air quality worldwide.
The finding contradicts the top nine climate models in use today, which associate exceptionally hot summers and cold winters with weak El Niños, and vice versa.
"The idea behind this link is based on very well-established physics, so it's appealing to think that nature works this way. But our analysis shows that it's not that simple," said Julien Emile-Geay, lead author of a study contradicting the models and assistant professor of Earth Sciences at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences.
His study was published on December 14 in the journal Nature Geoscience.
Emile-Geay checked the models against data collected by his coauthors on shells and fossil corals spanning the Holocene period - the last 10,000 years of Earth's history. The period had similar geography, amounts of ice and levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, making it a good analogue for today's climate.

more

http://phys.org/news/2015-12-current-climate-misrepresent-el-nino.html
 
If none of that stops your panic then maybe these two can do it with humour and facts :thumbsup:

Here's the historical data for our town in the middle east coast of Sweden.



Here is the temperature now (top outside, bottom inside) -



And over the last few years, this kind of record breaking has not been unusual.

So I'm starting to panic - I wanted white Christmases! :mad:
 

:dl::dl::dl:

Sorry. I usually leave the beetles among the dead leaves in the lowest level of jungle for others to entertain themselves. But when I see this, I can't stop giggling.

It shows the same abrupt global warming as always.

This is the same figure placed on Mars ----> .

It shows the same abrupt global warming as always, but in this case the scale is selected in a way to hide that the author drank all the alcohol contained in those thermometers (because they are alcohol thermometers, don't forget! content is everything; calibration, not quite :rolleyes:)

That's what religion does to people: believing that rituals and how things are shown replace reality.

I leave you again playing with our funny and dear Haig who, in the race for the ridiculous, always finds a way to excel himself.
 
:dl::dl::dl:

Sorry. I usually leave the beetles among the dead leaves in the lowest level of jungle for others to entertain themselves. But when I see this, I can't stop giggling.

It shows the same abrupt global warming as always.

This is the same figure placed on Mars ----> .

It shows the same abrupt global warming as always, but in this case the scale is selected in a way to hide that the author drank all the alcohol contained in those thermometers (because they are alcohol thermometers, don't forget! content is everything; calibration, not quite :rolleyes:)

That's what religion does to people: believing that rituals and how things are shown replace reality.

I leave you again playing with our funny and dear Haig who, in the race for the ridiculous, always finds a way to excel himself.


Yeah! it's much scarier if the scale is selected in a way to exaggerate the global temperature in hundredths of a degree that is an impractical farce and statistically insignificant.



The chart shows, instead, how stable the global temperature has actually been between 1881 and 2013 :D


Climate Change is Real


Remember Those Thanksgivings When You Were Terrified of Rapid Global Warming?
6a010536b58035970c01bb0895c136970d-pi
 

Nice artsy macaroni-gluing posts, Haig, and nice too their Ned_Flanders_meets_Dale_Carnegie scripting

But, why don't you explain exactly all the variables in your concoction above, little copypasta grasshopper? ;) Simply exactly what they are, nothing else.

If you have the slightest idea, I mean.

So far a house-wife accidentally get here and though that you might be onto something, and she thought that for a whole minute.
 
Nice artsy macaroni-gluing posts, Haig, and nice too their Ned_Flanders_meets_Dale_Carnegie scripting

But, why don't you explain exactly all the variables in your concoction above, little copypasta grasshopper? ;) Simply exactly what they are, nothing else.

If you have the slightest idea, I mean.

So far a house-wife accidentally get here and though that you might be onto something, and she thought that for a whole minute.


So aleCcowaN you want and explanation of that chart well these words say it all ;)

"The adjacent chart pretty much makes a turkey mockery of accelerating global warming fears. It's simply not flying happening.

While the climate science establishment continues its costly and misallocated efforts against "catastrophic" global warming, the empirical evidence indicates the worlds' elites are pursuing a laughably ludicrous Don Quixote quest against an imaginary climate-evil.

Like so many Thanksgivings of the past, those on the 'quest' have piously announced civilization's reaching its 'last chance' point of saving itself from climate doomsday. But all of these Turkeynado Sharknado-like prophecies that the end-is-near have proven to be pure anti-science fiction.

At some point, we can hope some sanity returns to the climate science anti-CO2 Quixote brotherhood of warriors. But in the meantime, what does the actual climate science say?

Well, this chart is just brutally frank: the fast growth of atmospheric CO2 levels (the black dots) have not exactly been the robust evil foe the elite establishment has fixated on.

As the chart depicts, the CO2 impact on either short (red curve) or long-term (pink curve) rapid global temperature acceleration appears to be non-existent versus the "consensus" predictions. And the blue-dash curve reveals the rather turkey-like impact on the 36-month average of absolute global temperatures.

Indeed, global temperatures have increased since 1950. But the scientific reality is that the chart confirms a steady global warming that has been taking place since the end of the Little Ice Age (late 1700s) - well before the influx of the giant CO2 emissions from the industrial/consumer era. The chart clearly shows a long history of frequent periods of rapidly increasing temperatures, then to be always followed by a significant deceleration."

Understand now :D
 
Give it time
Haig, we already know that you have the delusion that this conference poster is about AGW. Even if it is published, the paper will not say anything about AGW. This is Anthony Watts (with others) continued obsession with the trivial fact that it is possible to cherry pick US (not global!) weather station data to give the trends that the authors want. That is why competent climate scientists do not cherry pick stations :eek:!
Haig: Greenhouse effect denier - what more need be said ! Except that he has 56 posts of parroted ignorance, delusions and lies from climate change deniers with some of his ignorance, delusions and a lie or two
 
Last edited:
No worries macdoc :) ...alarmist rant and idiotic graph snipped...
Haig: Greenhouse effect denier - what more need be said ! Except that he has 56 posts of parroted ignorance, delusions and lies from climate change deniers with some of his ignorance, delusions and a lie or two
Anthony Watts lies about a new trend analysis. This is an unreal hypothesis:
If that trend was to continue for another 63 years, the composite warming for the globe would be 1.1 C (about 2 degrees Fahrenheit) for the century, Christy said.
Competent climate scientists know that AGW is not linear. They do not ignorantly extrapolate the past trend into the future as a linear trend because they know that the atmosphere is a complex, non-linear system. Competent climate scientists use the climate computer models to predict future trends.
Dr. John Christy shoots himself in the foot by doing a "Monckton" and
Anthony Watts parrots this ignorance about climate science :jaw-dropp!
 
Haig: A lie about a graph with increasing tempertures being stable

if the scale is selected in a way to exaggerate the global temperature in hundredths of a degree that is an impractical farce and statistically insignificant.
The farce is the idiocy of not knowing that small changes in temperature are significant, Haig. I would try to educate you about that yet again :eye-poppi if it were not for:
Haig: Greenhouse effect denier - what more need be said ! Except that he has 56 posts of parroted ignorance, delusions and lies from climate change deniers with some of his ignorance, delusions and a lie or two
Lying about the global temperature being stable when your graph shows it increasing is really bad, Haig.
Followed by citing stupidity from a web site. The author is so totally ignorant about the basic science that they plot temperatures and CO2 levels on the same graph :eek: ! The text is an denier rant, not science.
 
Last edited:
An interesting article that points out a fundamental flaw in climate skeptic literature: Why Climate Skeptics Are Wrong By Michael Shermer
What about the remaining 3 percent or so of studies? What if they're right? In a 2015 paper published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Rasmus Benestad of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Nuccitelli and their colleagues examined the 3 percent and found “a number of methodological flaws and a pattern of common mistakes.” That is, instead of the 3 percent of papers converging to a better explanation than that provided by the 97 percent, they failed to converge to anything.
A part of being confident about a theory is that multiple lines of evidence lead to the same conclusion. On one hand we have at least 97% of papers supporting AGW with multiple lines of evidence. On the other hand we have less than 3% papers that support various theories (natural variation, the Sun, etc.) with a few lines of evidence for each different theory. This is bad - if there was a viable alternative to AGW then those papers would converge on that alternative.
 
Last edited:
So aleCcowaN you want and explanation of that chart well these words say it all ;)

"The adjacent chart pretty much makes a turkey mockery of accelerating global warming fears. It's simply not flying happening.

While the climate science establishment continues its costly and misallocated efforts against "catastrophic" global warming, the empirical evidence indicates the worlds' elites are pursuing a laughably ludicrous Don Quixote quest against an imaginary climate-evil.

Like so many Thanksgivings of the past, those on the 'quest' have piously announced civilization's reaching its 'last chance' point of saving itself from climate doomsday. But all of these Turkeynado Sharknado-like prophecies that the end-is-near have proven to be pure anti-science fiction.

At some point, we can hope some sanity returns to the climate science anti-CO2 Quixote brotherhood of warriors. But in the meantime, what does the actual climate science say?

Well, this chart is just brutally frank: the fast growth of atmospheric CO2 levels (the black dots) have not exactly been the robust evil foe the elite establishment has fixated on.

As the chart depicts, the CO2 impact on either short (red curve) or long-term (pink curve) rapid global temperature acceleration appears to be non-existent versus the "consensus" predictions. And the blue-dash curve reveals the rather turkey-like impact on the 36-month average of absolute global temperatures.

Indeed, global temperatures have increased since 1950. But the scientific reality is that the chart confirms a steady global warming that has been taking place since the end of the Little Ice Age (late 1700s) - well before the influx of the giant CO2 emissions from the industrial/consumer era. The chart clearly shows a long history of frequent periods of rapidly increasing temperatures, then to be always followed by a significant deceleration."

Understand now :D

What I thought, you have no idea what that figure says. It's just another case of a label in the figure telling the opposite of what the figure says. I've already caught you many times doing that. Surely you got it from the usual sources you scavenge (these people, with the time they're wasting they could have gotten their GED already)

Do you want to give it another try? Again, one by one, what are each of the variables depicted in that figures and how they are represented?

I can tell you in advance: they are aiming to even lower people. Before they did an effort in making it look reasonably. Now they are "on sale" and any blotch with a label that appeals to Cletus or percentile 99 does.
 
An interesting article that points out a fundamental flaw in climate skeptic literature: Why Climate Skeptics Are Wrong By Michael Shermer

A part of being confident about a theory is that multiple lines of evidence lead to the same conclusion. On one hand we have at least 97% of papers supporting AGW with multiple lines of evidence. On the other hand we have less than 3% papers that support various theories (natural variation, the Sun, etc.) with a few lines of evidence for each different theory. This is bad - if there was a viable alternative to AGW then those papers would converge on that alternative.


The thing is RC that consensus of 97% was a lie :eek:

Cooks ‘97% consensus’ disproven by a new peer reviewed paper showing major math errors
UPDATE: While this paper (a rebuttal) has been accepted, another paper by Cook and Nuccitelli has been flat out rejected by the journal Earth System Dynamics. See update below. – Anthony

“0.3% climate consensus, not 97.1%”
The consensus Cook considered was the standard definition: that Man had caused most post-1950 warming. Even on this weaker definition the true consensus among published scientific papers is now demonstrated to be not 97.1%, as Cook had claimed, but only 0.3%.

Only 41 out of the 11,944 published climate papers Cook examined explicitly stated that Man caused most of the warming since 1950. Cook himself had flagged just 64 papers as explicitly supporting that consensus, but 23 of the 64 had not in fact supported it.

This shock result comes scant weeks before the United Nations’ climate panel, the IPCC, issues its fifth five-yearly climate assessment, claiming “95% confidence” in the imagined – and, as the new paper shows, imaginary – consensus.

Climate Consensus and ‘Misinformation’: a Rejoinder to ‘Agnotology, Scientific Consensus, and the Teaching and Learning of Climate Change’ decisively rejects suggestions by Cook and others that those who say few scientists explicitly support the supposedly near-unanimous climate consensus are misinforming and misleading the public.

Dr Legates said: “It is astonishing that any journal could have published a paper claiming a 97% climate consensus when on the authors’ own analysis the true consensus was well below 1%.

Best comment imo ;)

"CAGW hypothesis is falling apart at an impressive rate. Is it possible that climate scientists are now involved in what amounts to the game of musical chairs and have begun jockeying for, what they perceive, the reduced number of positions in climate science by publishing simply the facts instead of hyperbole."
 
The thing is RC that consensus of 97% was a lie :eek:
The fact is that you are parroting a WUWT lie as usual, Haig.
Haig: Greenhouse effect denier - what more need be said ! Except that he has 56 posts of parroted ignorance, delusions and lies from climate change deniers with some of his ignorance, delusions and a lie or two

The 97% consensus on global warming
Surveys of the peer-reviewed scientific literature and the opinions of experts consistently show a 97–98% consensus that humans are causing global warming.
A survey of over 12,000 peer-reviewed climate science papers by our citizen science team at Skeptical Science has found a 97% consensus in the peer-reviewed literature that humans are causing global warming.
...
Our results are also consistent with previous research finding a 97% consensus amongst climate experts on the human cause of global warming. Doran and Zimmerman (2009) surveyed Earth scientists, and found that of the 77 scientists responding to their survey who are actively publishing climate science research, 75 (97.4%) agreed that "human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures." Anderegg et al. (2010) compiled a list of 908 researchers with at least 20 peer-reviewed climate publications. They found that:
"≈97% of self-identified actively publishing climate scientists agree with the tenets of ACC [anthropogenic climate change]"​
In our survey, among scientists who expressed a position on AGW in their abstract, 98.4% endorsed the consensus. This is greater than 97% consensus of peer-reviewed papers because endorsement papers had more authors than rejection papers, on average. Thus there is a 97.1% consensus in the peer-reviewed literature, and a 98.4% consensus amongst scientists researching climate change.
Anthony Watts lie abut Cook et. al. starts with an Obama tweet
Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous.​
This tweet was wrong. Cook et. al. did not look at whether global warming (from whatever cause) was "dangerous". The survey looked at the literature and evaluated each paper as to whether an belief in AGW was stated and what that belief was.
Watts takes this straw man and cites a paper by Legates et. al. continuing wuith the straw man.
The starting lie is that this is not Cook et. al. - that was Obama (or maybe a White House staff member) making a mistake.
The main lie is that "0.3% climate consensus, not 97.1%" text.
Cook et. al. found that 97.1% of papers that expressed an opinion on AGW stated that AGW existed.
Watts idiotically repeated Legates delusion that every paper on climate science that exists expressed an option on AGW (thus the 0.3% number). And then we have the nail in Watt's coffin - it was the ignorant Christopher Monckton of Brenchley who found this "error"!
 
Last edited:
The Sun - Weather & Climate link Q & A :) read lower comment first.

On 21 Dec 2015, Bob Weber wrote:
Gerry, I'll clarify here. The sun's heat is from TSI, total solar irradiance, which covers the entire measurable solar spectrum from x-rays to infrared. F10.7cm solar radio flux (@2.8 GHz) is a small energetic slice of that spectrum near UV & X-ray wavelengths which correlates well with sunspot number and TSI over solar cycle lengths, but it doesn't correlate well all the time during ~27 day solar rotations. They can be out of phase. F10.7cm flux is in phase with SSN but not perfectly over a rotation. TSI actually goes down when SSN is high, AND when sunspot area is high. My long-term warming/cooling threshold of 120 solar flux units in F10.7cm is statistically equal to a TSI of ~1361.24. See TSI for the past 90 days @ http://lasp.colorado.edu/data/sorce...ages/tim_level3_tsi_24hour_3month_640x480.png - it's been higher than 1361.24 - that's why it's warm & wet now, driving the El Nino evaporation. The sun's mid-Nov TSI spike caused your Cumbrian floods.

On 21 Dec 2015, Gerry wrote:
east side - the Mail article about the last pit closure said Drax was getting coal £13/ton cheaper from Columbia but they may have it wrong. Legacy media can't even get their heads around referendum policy that requires 9-10 months from declaration to voting day and bang on about it being held in June next year. Brandon - cold winters don't have to have snow. A static high can bring clear cold weather for weeks. The wild swings in the jetstream are solar driven as Piers would confirm and are not connected to the El Nino. Our US friend Bob has a good comment on WUWT regarding solar flux being related to sun spot area and not just the number. That explains why there were times - as indeed now - when the count is low but the sfu higher than you would expect. Only 3 numbered spots on the disc but one is big. Mail weather said light showers. Had some absolute stair rod ones today. Oh well.
 
Consensus is indeed not science Haig...I see you are another one with a Victorian age penchant for Capitals....something about the right wing mindset....they need the caps to cover a weak position.

The body of knowledge about a particular field such as evolution and climate science is built on papers that tie evidence with theory.
Something you definitely fail to understand.

The greater the agreement on the theory in question the more difficult to overturn. In this case the basic premise was known in the same century your writing style is in tune with ....1890 or so....
The observation of C02 heat trapping was developed experimentally and the author theorized that the atmosphere would warm when we added C02.

It has. And has been proven by observation and more theory ever since.

You can't even get to the premise so your comments are fiction. Fruit from the poisoned tree.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom