Global warming discussion IV

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El Nino is pretty much what's going on just now so this seems the appropriate place. The first full-on El Nino since 1998 unless something unusual happens (which would be interesting in itself). Some of us have been anticipating a like-for-like comparison for years.

So far it appears that 17 years of trend is making itself very apparent in surface temperatures. Another record year in prospect just in time for Paris. What a stroke of luck (if you believe in such things ...)
 
I keep up with the AGW denier world via HotWhopper http://blog.hotwhopper.com/ and they seem to have given up on science and real unfolding events and settled into the fortress of Conspiracy. There's barely any distinction left from the general Bircher cult which sees communist subversion everywhere, always on the verge of final victory over the neocons who've actually run the world since the Reagan-Thatcher Discontinuity.

Paris 2015 marks the triumph of Agenda 21 we have been informed by none other than Christopher Monckton, the swivel-eyed viscount. By January 2016 all that will be forgotten and it'll be cold in Vermont. All so predictable, all so stale and tired. With that old man smell about it.
 
Great!! Denialism is now going to stalk from videogames ...

Maybe it is the social change: people now are more openly egoist so they no longer have to plot theories to justify the morality of their convenient denialism. Kim Kardashian has replaced Daniel Boone.
 
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When this was written, there were none...

aleCcowaN said:
Maybe a few typhoons will provide some "relief" during the next month or two -not in temperate Australia during Winter, I'm afraid- as the MJO index is going record (another graphic that had to be widened lately because of the record values -one year ago, the axis ended in 2.5-):

2cife47.jpg
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Look the map today:

2ntafpc.gif


As gauchos say: "¡Lo que's la cencia!" (Knowledge is impressive!)
 
We should start to write an anthology of denialism, as they seem to have vacated the forum and now this is kinda boring, as it's just AGW what was left.

Couldn't we entice Monckton to make a quick visit here? Unless his eyes popped yesterday with the heat wave in England.
 
I'm meant to be helping a brother move today & its pissing down rain. Wish El Nino would do its ****** job :mad:

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Trakar said:
The 1998 el Nino was a "globally-warmed El Nino event" as well as most of those since at least 1890 or so....
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Of the 21st century, then.

I start the count as of 2000. before that we were just warming up.

aleCcowaN said:
It is pretty precise a model, and I wouldn't say that what's coming is dreadful but I ain't saying otherwise either.
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I'm certainly leaning towards the disastrous side.

And this is partly why:

aleCcowaN said:
Look the map today:
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I saw that this morning and was going to include that exact map.

I'm a pretty keen watcher and I don't know when four TSs were spawned at the same time in the western equatorial Pacific*. New Caledonia is getting hit by a tropical storm.

In July.

*All I can find is this page, which shows the four we had earlier this year, but they were from two different oceans.
 
bit_pattern said:
I'm meant to be helping a brother move today & its pissing down rain. Wish El Nino would do its ****** job :mad:

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Weren't you in Sydney? Where is it raining? Australia looks pretty dry today (All that happen for living in a rush. You are on Saturday. If you slowed it down a bit, you'd be still enjoying Friday, like me)
 
The Atheist said:
I saw that this morning and was going to include that exact map.

I'm a pretty keen watcher and I don't know when four TSs were spawned at the same time in the western equatorial Pacific*. New Caledonia is getting hit by a tropical storm.
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It's both the value and part of the cycle of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It is explained to favour tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific (West of the International Date Line).

The problem is that TC Chan-hom. It's going to hit the Marianas in 24 hours as a category 1 or 2, and next Thursday it will probably hit any place between (and including) Okinawa and Kagoshima as a category 4 or 5.

Meanwhile, the WWB strengthen, so brace yourselves.
 
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The Atheist said:
Of the 21st century, then.

I start the count as of 2000. before that we were just warming up...
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We are still "just warming up," and most likely will continue to be in that mode for the next several centuries, or so.
 
The Atheist said:
Of the 21st century, then.

I start the count as of 2000. before that we were just warming up.
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Roughly half of fossil-fuel emissions have been produced since 1976, which means half was before that. I consider the era of AGW as from that point. Getting on forty years now and it's starting to bite.

I was duly sceptical that I'd see this in my lifetime back in the 70's, having been weaned on Enlightenment notions of the inconsequentiality of humanity in the scheme of things, and of gradualism. When the numbers started coming in a sense of unease developed. When Fred Singer popped up denying there was a problem I knew beyond doubt there was an issue. Nobody hires in Singer if there isn't really a problem identified by their own research. If there's an honest case to make, make it. If there's not, turn to Singer and his Rolodex.

That logic has never let me down.
 
aleCcowaN said:
It's both the value and part of the cycle of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It is explained to favour tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific (West of the International Date Line).

The problem is that TC Chan-hom. It's going to hit the Marianas in 24 hours as a category 1 or 2, and next Thursday it will probably hit any place between (and including) Okinawa and Kagoshima as a category 4 or 5.

Meanwhile, the WWB strengthen, so brace yourselves.
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Unless you're very keen on tennis it really is all going on in the Pacific just now.

Where are the deniers now? They can't all have died and/or been banned, incarcerated or committed. Have some, I wonder, been converted?

Oh dear, I crack myself up sometimes ...
 
aleCcowaN said:
It is explained to favour tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific (West of the International Date Line).
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That's the point - an amazing graphic illustration by the atmosphere of the effect from the warmer ocean.

I watch the oceanic wind patterns as well, and it's easy to see what's happening - the whole western half is in the doldrums to a degree I've not seen in the past, but again, that's only this century.
 
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