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Global warming discussion III

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Originally Posted by Haig View Post
I have to disagree macdoc It won't be too long until it's obvious who is right
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Global Temperature down in April, just 7/100ths of a degree above normal
Once again, you're confusing climate with weather.
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You've been claiming this nonsense for years now Haig.....it's obvious now "who is correct" .....we already know who is "right" :rolleyes: those malevolent defenders of fossil fools.

Your April claim does not even define normal .....there is no way April 2015 is 7 100ths of a degree above 20th century average..it's utter crap you are spouting

April is not even posted yet

This is March ...

The average temperature across global land and ocean surface temperatures combined for March 2015 was 0.85°C (1.53°F) higher than the 20th century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F).
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an entire magnitude above Haigs claim.....that said he's never understood magnitude since he continues to think solar activity is the primary driver rather than AGW.....despite being shown time and again that solar activity is a magnitude below that of AGW as easily demonstrated by the 11 year solar cycle.

What is clearly and patently obvious is there is no pause or hiatus in AGW - only differences between land and ocean and right now the ocean is burping a lot of heat back intor the atmosphere.

SSTA-April-17-2015.png


Those numbers in degrees C are astonishing.
 
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OCaptain said:
Once again, you're confusing climate with weather.
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It’s even worse than that. He’s using a very strange definition of “normal” where every single April prior to 1997 was “colder than normal” so even being “slightly warmer than normal” ranks this April as one of the warmest ever. If we look at surface temperatures instead of the lower troposphere temperatures (which are even more strongly influenced by ENSO) this April was the second warmest ever.
 
Another nail in the climate change denial coffin :D!
A Global Warming Fingerprint Confirmed: Upper Troposphere Warming by Greg Laden
Most of the expected fingerprints are now well documented, but one has been a bit elusive. This is the warming of parts of the upper troposphere. A new study, just out in Environmental Research Letters, observes and measures this effect.
The troposphere is the lower layer of the Earth’s atmosphere, where about three quarters of the air and most of the water vapor resides, and it is about 7 to 20 kilometers thick, thickest in the tropics and thinest near the poles. Climate models and thermodynmaic calculus predict that the upper troposphere in the tropics should experience warming. Temperatures at this altitude are measured using radiosonde technology. This is a package of instruments sent aloft on a weather baloon. But there are a lot of problems with the data. Instruments that measure temperature are ideally situated in one spot and properly enclosed. Such instruments dangling off the end of a balloon flying through the air are subject to heating and cooling from various uncontrolled effects, such as sunlight (vs. not), air movements, etc. Given the low quality of the data, it has been hard to observe upper troposphere temperatures.
...
The new study, Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data (IUKv2), by Steven Sherwood and Nidhi Nishant, takes a new approach.
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Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data (IUKv2), by Steven Sherwood and Nidhi Nishant.

The second paragraph in Laden's blog explains one of the incorrect facts in 22 Very Inconvenient Climate Truths cited by Haig.
 
Steve001 said:
I know it's likely not possible to change your mind, but that's not really of interest to me. what interests me most is what satisfaction you derive by thinking you are right? Can you explain to us why you think you are?
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The published literature does that already.
 
Steve001 said:
Show me where I have ?

May 2015 ENSO Update – Australia’s BOM and the JMA Declare an El Niño and With Them Comes the Typical Nonsense from an Expert Source
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This is an excellent article imo.

He has just put out another piece which is also good :)

April 2015 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly & Model-Data Difference Update


I know it's likely not possible to change your mind, but that's not really of interest to me. what interests me most is what satisfaction you derive by thinking you are right?
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I don't derive any satisfaction by being on the side that's right. The prospect of climate change such as another Little Ice Age is quite depressing actually but it's something we should prepare for and to-date few governments have taken any measures :(

Only Russia has had the foresight to build a fleet of Super Icebreakers and that will prove very useful.

Can you explain to us why you think you are?
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Five years ago I started this thread HERE and events have been moving to confirm the OP rather than refute it.

Steve001 said:
I know, but I want to hear Haig's reasons.
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I happen to think the skeptics are right.
 
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When presented with links to WattsUpMyButt one's first port of call should be, of course, HotWhopper

Nine Denier 101 Techniques: Anthony Watts gets into a hot spot in the tropical troposphere
http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/05/nine-denier-101-techniques-anthony.html


What's interesting is the lesson for Denier 101 that this paper has provided. At WUWT Anthony Watts has written an article full of denierisms ...
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I particularly like technique 2 :

Halo-effect: In Anthony Watts's first sentence after the "Claim" headline, he links the lead author, Steve Sherwood, with another Professor from the University of New South Wales, and suggests that because on a recent trip to Antarctica, the vessel of that other Professor became stuck in ice, this means that the results of the updated radio-sonde data set reported by Steve Sherwood and Nidhi Nishant in ERL, are wrong.
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As we all know the "missing hot-spot" is a long-standing but now collapsed pillar of the denier construction. Times are difficult for deniers and there's no prospect of relief.
 
Haig said:
This is an excellent article imo.
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LOL!
He was quoting your post, and commenting on it to question why you believed it. You just quoted your original text and commented on how wonderful it is!

Yes the quote looks like it got mangled a bit, but surely you recognise your own posts right?

here is your post he was responding to...
Haig said:
Show me where I have ?

May 2015 ENSO Update – Australia’s BOM and the JMA Declare an El Niño and With Them Comes the Typical Nonsense from an Expert Source
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macdoc said:
You've been claiming this nonsense for years now Haig.....it's obvious now "who is correct" .....we already know who is "right" :rolleyes: those malevolent defenders of fossil fools.

Your April claim does not even define normal .....there is no way April 2015 is 7 100ths of a degree above 20th century average..it's utter crap you are spouting

April is not even posted yet

This is March ...



an entire magnitude above Haigs claim.....that said he's never understood magnitude since he continues to think solar activity is the primary driver rather than AGW.....despite being shown time and again that solar activity is a magnitude below that of AGW as easily demonstrated by the 11 year solar cycle.

What is clearly and patently obvious is there is no pause or hiatus in AGW - only differences between land and ocean and right now the ocean is burping a lot of heat back intor the atmosphere.

[qimg]https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-3W01MfsZ8M4/VTM1AZbBPzI/AAAAAAAANAw/dRuHMjso3og/s800/SSTA-April-17-2015.png[/qimg]

Those numbers in degrees C are astonishing.
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Here is a skeptics view of The Temperature Field and it's not as Alarmist as yours :cool:

ceres-average-temperature-0-degrees.png
 
macdoc said:
What is clearly and patently obvious is there is no pause or hiatus in AGW - only differences between land and ocean and right now the ocean is burping a lot of heat back intor the atmosphere.
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I forgot to pick you up on this point that "there is no pause or hiatus in AGW"

This piece in Nature doesn't agree with you by Jeff Tollefson 15 January 2014 :)

Climate change: The case of the missing heat
Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’, scientists are piecing together an explanation.
Now, as the global-warming hiatus enters its sixteenth year, scientists are at last making headway in the case of the missing heat. Some have pointed to the Sun, volcanoes and even pollution from China as potential culprits, but recent studies suggest that the oceans are key to explaining the anomaly. The latest suspect is the El Niño of 1997–98, which pumped prodigious quantities of heat out of the oceans and into the atmosphere — perhaps enough to tip the equatorial Pacific into a prolonged cold state that has suppressed global temperatures ever since.
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Stark contrast
On a chart of global atmospheric temperatures, the hiatus stands in stark contrast to the rapid warming of the two decades that preceded it.
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Researchers have followed various leads in recent years, focusing mainly on a trio of factors: the Sun1, atmospheric aerosol particles2 and the oceans3. The output of energy from the Sun tends to wax and wane on an 11-year cycle, but the Sun entered a prolonged lull around the turn of the millennium. The natural 11-year cycle is currently approaching its peak, but thus far it has been the weakest solar maximum in a century. This could help to explain both the hiatus and the discrepancy in the model simulations, which include a higher solar output than Earth has experienced since 2000.
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So there is a pause or hiatus whether you admit it or not ;)
 
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