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Global warming discussion III

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A benefit of increased Carbon Dioxide: increased efficiency in tree growth, no “Mike’s Nature trick” needed
And? Temperate rainforests used to exist on almost every continent in the world, but today only 50 percent — 75 million acres — of these forests remain worldwide. Originally, 6 million square miles of tropical rainforest existed worldwide. But as a result of deforestation, only 2.4 million square miles remain. Between 2000 and 2012, 0.9 million square miles of forests around the world were cut down. That's roughly the size of all of the states in the U.S. east of the Mississippi River. Only 0.3 million square miles were replanted. There are only only four remaining intact temperate grasslands in the world and they are greatly reduced in size. For example the North American tallgrass prairie for all practical purposes is completely gone. About 5,000 years ago the great northern grasslands died out when humans exterminated the majority of the megafauna in the northern hemisphere, replaced now with boreal forest with shallow roots due to the thin soils. (luckily they can form peat at least) Most the grasslands of Australia that started desertifying 50,000 years ago due to the human eradication of Australia's megafauna were surveyed in the 1840's with many still containing deep A-horizons of 6%-20% SOM are now almost completely finished desertifying and contain usually around <1% SOM. The farmers of Australia now farm on sub-soil (B-horizon) as excepting a small band of tropical rainforest remaining, nearly all the top soil is now gone. China's Loess plateau ecosystems were completely destroyed. (although now part of the largest ecosystem restoration project in the world) Green revolution agriculture is a carbon emissions source.

With all this and more ecosystem destruction world wide, the very few remnant functioning ecosystems left are still capable of making the entire terrestrial biosphere taken as a whole a net sink, at least over recent decades. Exactly like you said, increased CO2 in the atmosphere does ramp up certain types of plant growth in certain circumstances. But of course the ecological sink is far too small to actually counter Fossil Fuel emissions in its current degraded state. That's the key you have repeatedly ignored over and over on this thread.

You can't just wave away FF emissions with enhanced ecosystem services if in addition to Fossil Fuel emissions you also have significant ecosystem degradation also caused by mankind. Any argument along those lines MUST include ecological restoration by necessity, as currently the effect is too small.

There is a vigorous debate currently in scientific circles as to whether it potentially could be large enough with better management of Earth's ecosystems. Is 2015 The Year Soil Becomes Climate Change’s Hottest Topic? But ALL legit scientific analysis agrees, in their current degraded state the ecosystems (including artificial agricultural ecosystems) are not sufficient to the task.
 
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Here are 22 good reasons not to believe the statements made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

22 Very Inconvenient Climate Truths

Dana Nuccitelli has written a defence of climate models, in which he appears to claim that a few models randomly replicating the pause should be considered evidence that climate modelling is producing valid results.

Really! :eek:


A few models wandered over the pause…

picture.php
 
Haig
Nothing but meaningless propaganda from climate sites like WUWT paid by the fossil fuel industry - you are not discussing climate science ....just proselytizing for fossil fuel interests.
All of those points they claim have been covered off here and you basw it on an assumption that there is a pause in AGW....there is NOT any pause.

There has been a slowdown in the SST record increase....atmosphere is only a small and transient portion of the AGw picture which includes crysophere and hydropsphere ( the 900 lb gorilla ).

Total ice levels continue to decline.
Ocean heat continues to rise - catastrophically in the Pacific.
Even locally like California and other regions .... atmospheric heat is at unreal levels.

2015 Already Setting Heat Records
by Becky Oskin, Senior Writer | April 17, 2015 04:36pm ET

The first three months of 2015 set new global heat records, government officials announced today (April 17).

march-temps.jpg


January, February and March set new high-temperature records, respectively; each month was warmer than any on the books since record keeping started 136 years ago. March also ended the hottest 12-month period on record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported. Seven of the past 11 months have tied or set new record-high monthly temperatures.

In March, Earth's average temperature was 56.4 degrees Fahrenheit (13.6 degrees Celsius), breaking the previous record set in 2010 by 0.09 F (0.05 C). The Japan Meteorological Agency also put March in first place, as the hottest month ever in its records, while NASA put it in third place, behind 2010 and 2002. Yet, all three agencies agree that the 12 months to date are the hottest ever. [Fishy Rain to Fire Whirlwinds: The World's Weirdest Weather]

Giant blobs of warm water in the tropical and northeast Pacific Ocean helped boost 2015 to the top of the rankings, according to the NOAA climate report. Like a pot of boiling water on a stove, the warm seawater radiates heat into the atmosphere and raises the planet's average temperature. The global average temperature includes measurements over land and ocean surfaces.

Because these warm-water pools are predicted to persist through year-end, more heat records could fall in the coming months. In the tropical Pacific, the warm water is linked to an ongoing El Niño, the cyclic phenomenon that shifts global weather. NOAA forecasts a 60 percent chance that the El Niño will last through fall.

March 2015's new record high was a bigger jump from the global average than records set during previous El Niño years, in February 1998 and January 2007, NOAA reported. The average March temperature over land surfaces across the globe was 2.86 F (1.59 C) above the 20th-century average.

During March, California saw record warmth, as did parts of the western United States and Canada, according to the report. Scandinavia, northwest Russia, south central China, northeast Australia and eastern Africa also baked under high temperatures, NOAA reported.

more

http://www.livescience.com/50527-march-2015-global-heat-record.html

Your claim of pause and imminent cooling is factually in error. Move on....you've had it explained enough time and again and the data says you are wrong. :rolleyes:
 
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Sure Haig - same clown that beleives in Intelligent Design ) Roy Spencer..... massages your data and you trot it out against NASA/NOAA

:dl:

the 20th century average is

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for April 2014 tied with 2010 as the highest on record for the month, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F).

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/4


Global Analysis - March 2015 | State of the Climate ...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
April Global Release: Tue, 19 May 2015, 11:00 AM EDT ... The average temperature across global land and ocean surface temperatures combined for March 2015 was 0.85°C (1.53°F) higher than the 20th century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F).


2015 Already Setting Heat Records - LiveScience
www.livescience.com/50527-march-2015-global-heat-record.html
Apr 17, 2015 - March 2015's new record high was a bigger jump from the global average than records set during previous El Niño years, in February 1998 and January 2007, NOAA reported. The average March temperature over land surfaces across the globe was 2.86 F (1.59 C) above the 20th-century average.

Stop posting factually incorrect material....this is a science forum ....not your propaganda soap box.
 
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Here are 22 good reasons not to believe the statements made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

22 Very Inconvenient Climate Truths
That is a good demonstration of the craziness that we can find on climate denier web sites, Haig: 22 Rather Idiotic Statements on that web page :eek:!
The actual science:
  1. The Mean Global Surface Temperature has increased since 1997.
  2. "57% of the cumulative anthropic emissions since the beginning of the Industrial revolution have been emitted since 1997", and the temperature has increased since 1997.
  3. They say that the IPCC says that 25% to 30% of CO2 today is from anthropic emissions and then idiotically cite Vostok ice core and other ice cores!
  4. A lie that IPCC has 100 years for the life time of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere. The lifetime of the emitted CO2 in the atmosphere is on the scales of centuries.
  5. A fantasy about global surface temperatures being "more or less sinusoidal with a well defined 60 year period".
  6. A fantasy about "absorption of the radiation from the surface by the CO2 of the air is nearly saturated".
  7. The denier fantasy that the current rapid increase in CO2 and temperatures is comparable to past levels of CO2.
  8. The idiocy of thinking that just the Brest tide gauge is used to represent all measurement of sea level rise!
    If the IPCC mentioned the Brest tide gauge then it would have been as an example.
    Together with ignorance of the predictions which are generally for a fairly linear rise until 2025.
    How much will sea levels rise in the 21st Century?
    Sea levels are rising faster now than in the previous century, and could rise between 50cm to 1.5 metres by 2100.
    ...
    The IPCC projections are derived from climate models. Using both tide gauge and satellite data, we can see that sea levels are rising. Unfortunately, sea level rise is already tracking the worst-case projections, as this graph shows: ...
  9. That there is no measured tropospheric hot spot is probably due to data problems: There's no tropospheric hot spot
    Satellite measurements match model results apart from in the tropics. There is uncertainty with the tropic data due to how various teams correct for satellite drift. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program conclude the discrepancy is most likely due to data errors.
  10. The first part of the statement is a half-lie as they show in the discussion: "IPCC has foreseen an increase of the water vapor content of the air and this has been observed." No prediction of the high troposphere water vapor content by the IPCC is cited.
    It is a lie that the observed feedback is negative: Explaining how the water vapor greenhouse effect works
    Water vapour is the most dominant greenhouse gas. Water vapour is also the dominant positive feedback in our climate system and amplifies any warming caused by changes in atmospheric CO2. This positive feedback is why climate is so sensitive to CO2 warming.
  11. etc.
 
What do volcanic eruptions mean for the climate?
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/04/how-do-volcanic-eruptions-influence-the-climate/

Having lain dormant for over 40 years, the Calbuco volcano last night erupted twice within the space of a few hours. The blast sent a huge cloud of ash over southern Chile.

Carbon Brief has asked a number of experts what volcano eruptions mean for the climate, and whether or not we can expect this latest event to have global consequences.

Expert response : "Well, that depends ..."

It may be a while before the full impacts of the Calbuco eruption reveal themselves, says Dr Michael J. Pavolonis, a specialist in volcanic clouds at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

"This is an ongoing eruption ... it is too early to draw any conclusions regarding climate impacts."

But if it does turn out to be significant, scientists will have a unique research opportunity. Monitoring the impact of eruptions helps climate scientists refine models that project how the climate will respond to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, explains McQuaid.
 
Show me where I have ?
Here you go: The incorrect facts in 22 Very Inconvenient Climate Truths, Haig :p!
For example the lie that global temperatures have not increased since 1997.

Here we have a WUWT article from the rather deluded Bob Tisdale.
Bob Tisdale comments on a single word (:eek:) in a single sentence in a quote in the news article Forecasters Agree El Nino Is Here (highlighted)
The models based on statistical analysis of the Pacific’s past performance have been “bamboozled,” said Kevin Trenberth, a distinguished senior scientist in the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. “What we are seeing is unprecedented, a sort of double El Nino.
That word is "unprecedented" and as he correctly points out that is factually incorrect - there are several multi-year El Nino shown in the NOAA Oceanic NINO Index.
This is of course known by Kevin Trenberth, e.g. he would know about this story he is quoted in:
Welcome to the 'Double El Niño' — and more extreme weather (March 22, 2015)
We’re about to experience a “double El Niño” — a rare weather phenomenon that climatologists had warned about several months ago.

That means two consecutive years of the concentration of warm water in the Pacific Ocean that brings West Coast storms, quiet hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and busy ones in the Pacific. The danger is that this could mean more than a few months of odd weather, but instead usher in a new phase of climate change. Last year was the warmest year on record; 2015 looks set to be even warmer.
 
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This isn’t about “science” anymore. ...
That is rather ignorant, Haig - climate science has and will always be about science :jaw-dropp!
The fact that you have been consistently citing climate denier myths and in some cases outright and obvious lies remains true: The incorrect facts in 22 Very Inconvenient Climate Truths cited by Haig.
Continuing to cite a climate change denier blog just emphasizes the point that you need to learn how to distinguish between scientific evidence and really bad blog articles. There is no "Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology" in that blog article - just parroted speculations about Vatican politics. When a blog article thanks the Heartland Institute then you know that they have passed from being skeptical about climate change to full scale blind denial!

ETA: FYI Haig, this is what a blog containing science looks like: Global Surface Temperatures Continue To Rise by Greg Laden.
 
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