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Global warming discussion III

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So your saying the Met Office is wrong when they talk about a PAUSE :D

Yup.

Of course they are probably using the term in a colloquial sense. They don't think warming has slowed down rather they are using it to describe a natural pattern of above/below trend present in internal climate variation.
 
Of course not. Linking to Fred Pearce, FoxNews, Forbes, the LA Times and the New York Times does not constitute statistical analysis.

That's the Met Office's problem; there hasn't been a pause. Look at the data.




What makes you think that coronal holes affect climate? Or that the Sun has anything to do with SSW events? What data are you going by?

Skimmed them and found no relevant statistical analysis. Perhaps if you give them a thorough reading and highlight what you think is important in them we can revisit but for the time being the ball is still in your court to provide a statistical analysis to prove your claim that the earth has stopped warming.

Note however that these are simply news articles from the popular press not scientific papers, it's highly unlikely you would find any relevant science or statistics in them.

Ok so you don't like the Met Office and you think the Media are just making the Pause up :D

How about NASA ?

'Hiatus' in rise of Earth's surface air temperature likely temporary
nasa said:
Between 1998 and 2012, climate scientists observed a slowdown in the rate at which the Earth's surface air temperature was rising. While the rise in global mean surface air temperature has continued, between 1998 and 2012 the increase was approximately one third of that from 1951 to 2012.

This trend — referred to as a "global warming hiatus" — has sparked a lot of debate and given rise to a reasonable question: Is global warming coming to a halt?

According to Norman Loeb, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, and the principal investigator of a space-borne sensor called the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System, or CERES, the answer is almost certainly no.

"Heating is still going on," he said. "It's just not in terms of the surface air temperature."

They think the missing HEAT is hiding in the oceans too :eek: And that didn't happen in the last century ???? Why NOT ???

The Recent Pause in Global Warming: A Temporary Blip or Something More Permanent? PDF
• The global mean surface temperature trend over 1998–2012 is roughly one third of the trend over 1951–2012.

• This is referred to as “The Global Warming Hiatus”.


Nope lomiller, I'm not buying it ... the PAUSE is real but the excuses are not ;)

It's the SUN not US
 
Your Pause - or is it a slowdown? - isn't in the data.

picture.php


I added the "pause" in blue to show how it's arrived at. Cherry pick the start time to artificially warm and then hide the evidence by only showing that part of the data.
 

A link to icecap, a crank website.

Note this ...

"even very high CO2 concentrations - some as much as 100 times greater than those of the past century - appear to benefit earth's vegetation."

What's that got to do with climate? Yes it'll be lovely for weeds as long as they have water and nutrients but that's not climate.

Ok, now that's done here's a few more points ...

As the Sun becomes less active in the last two decades ALL the planets have been changing in the solar system, care to address this ? Or do you think that's Our fault too ? :rolleyes:

Complete crap.


A link to youtube conspiracist.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

'Raymond Bradley of UMass, who has studied historical records of solar activity imprinted by radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores, says that regional rainfall seems to be more affected than temperature. "If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal." This fits in with the conclusion of the IPCC and previous NRC reports that solar variability is NOT the cause of global warming over the last 50 years.'

I'm surprised you didn't notice that paragraph.

No mention of climate.

'But any extra cosmic rays can have consequences. If the trend continues, astronauts on the Moon or en route to Mars would get a higher dose of space radiation. Robotic space probes and satellites in high Earth orbit face an increased risk of instrument malfunctions and reboots due to cosmic ray strikes. Also, there are controversial studies linking cosmic ray fluxes to cloudiness and climate change on Earth. That link may be tested in the years ahead.'

That was from 2008 and the results are in. No effect detected.


What a load of bollocks that is. I mean really, just look at it. An experiment in a cloud chamber becomes direct observation of cosmic rays creating nucleation particles in the open atmosphere. And a word to the wise : the atmosphere is not short of nucleation sites.


'Saturn is no stranger to monster storms — they break out about every 30 Earth years, which is one Saturn year, or the time it takes that planet to orbit the sun. Since the late 1800s, scientists have used telescopes to observe them, but this was the first one captured on camera, from birth to evolution to demise.'

Not exactly a game-changer then.


And warmest year; makes you think,doesn't it?

OK, starting to flag here, I think I've made my point. __________________
 
[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=178&pictureid=9449[/qimg]

I added the "pause" in blue to show how it's arrived at. Cherry pick the start time to artificially warm and then hide the evidence by only showing that part of the data.

You haven't explained NASA and the PAUSE are they NUMPTIES too ? http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/press_releases/lectures/Loeb_LaRC_Colloq.pdf


And you STILL haven't dealt with the small matter of ALL the changes in THIS ..

As the Sun becomes less active in the last two decades ALL the planets have been changing in the solar system, care to address this ? Or do you think that's Our fault too ? :rolleyes:


C(Lie)mate #3 - What Doesn't Make The News

Primary Citations:

NASA Solar-Climate Connection:
NASA Magnetic Field Inconsistency:
NASA Solar Wind Loses Power:
Cosmic Ray Nucleation:
Saturn Superstorm:
NewScientist Lowest Solar Low in 4 Centuries:
Reuters UN Climate Panel Corrects CO2:
Wall Street Journal Solar Strangeness:
Latest Sunspots:
Solar Magnetic Failure:
CO2 Breaks the Correlation:
CO2/Temp Timelines:
Magnetic Field Failing: HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE and HERE
No Warming Articles-- HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE and HERE
Ice Age Potential:
CATO on Climate:

The rest of the articles can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers/featured... along with most of the ones above too.
 
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They think the missing HEAT is hiding in the oceans too :eek: And that didn't happen in the last century ???? Why NOT ???

It DID happen in the last century. In fact ~10^23J of additional heat went into the oceans in the last century.

That's the equivalent energy of a "Tsar Bomba" being detonated every 2 hours for 100 years...
 


A link to icecap, a crank website.

What's that got to do with climate? Yes it'll be lovely for weeds as long as they have water and nutrients but that's not climate.

Complete crap.


A link to youtube conspiracist.


I'm surprised you didn't notice that paragraph.


No mention of climate.


That was from 2008 and the results are in. No effect detected.


What a load of bollocks that is. I mean really, just look at it. An experiment in a cloud chamber becomes direct observation of cosmic rays creating nucleation particles in the open atmosphere. And a word to the wise : the atmosphere is not short of nucleation sites.





Not exactly a game-changer then.

[URL="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24512-solar-activity-heads-for-lowest-low-in-four-centuries.html#.VL0JhSusV8G"]

And warmest year; makes you think,doesn't it?

OK, starting to flag here, I think I've made my point. __________________


Not good enough CapelDodger

You need to step back and look at the Big Picture :eek:

As the Sun becomes less active in the last two decades ALL the planets have been changing in the solar system, care to address this ? Or do you think that's Our fault too ? :rolleyes:


[URL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hOhq0vHfMI&feature=youtu.be"]C(Lie)mate #3 - What Doesn't Make The News


Primary Citations:

NASA Solar-Climate Connection:
NASA Magnetic Field Inconsistency:
NASA Solar Wind Loses Power:
Cosmic Ray Nucleation:
Saturn Superstorm:
NewScientist Lowest Solar Low in 4 Centuries:
Reuters UN Climate Panel Corrects CO2:
Wall Street Journal Solar Strangeness:
Latest Sunspots:
Solar Magnetic Failure:
CO2 Breaks the Correlation:
CO2/Temp Timelines:
Magnetic Field Failing: HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE and HERE
No Warming Articles-- HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE and HERE
Ice Age Potential:
CATO on Climate:

The rest of the articles can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers/featured... along with most of the ones above too.
 
As the Sun becomes less active in the last two decades ALL the planets have been changing in the solar system, care to address this ? Or do you think that's Our fault too ? :rolleyes:
You won't accept the mountains of data we have about the Earth, how much data do you have about the other planets?

P.S. I like the hiliting. Keep it up.
 
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You haven't explained NASA and the PAUSE are they NUMPTIES too ? http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/press_releases/lectures/Loeb_LaRC_Colloq.pdf

Good link, you should red it. Here is what it has to say. Here is what your link has to say.



Perspectve on Global Warming Hiatus

The observatons indicate that Earth is conMnuing to accumulate
heat despite the recent slowdown in surface warming compared
with the late 20th century.

Decadal periods of minimal surface warming, or even cooling,
interspersing decades of rapid surface warming, are not
inconsistent with a long term warming trend.

Rather, it characterizes the interplay between steadily increasing
greenhouse gas forcing and internally generated climate variability.

Current Hiatus is associated with negatve phase of
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.

They also put "warming hiatus" in quotes to signify they are not the ones claiming there has been a pause...

picture.php
 
Ok so you don't like the Met Office and you think the Media are just making the Pause up :biggrin:
That's an idiosyncratic exegesis. I have great admiration for the Met Office but they've made a mistake in using the term pause and then talking about a slowdown. As for the media they're generally not smart enough to make things up, they leave that to the likes of Morano.

There is no pause - look at the data.

Hiatus in quotes. That means they're not endorsing the term. The quote you provide refers to a slowdown between 1998 and 2012; it's 2015 where I live. lomiller has illustrated how a pause is conjured up taking full advantage of the massive outlier 1998.

There is, and was, no pause.


They think the missing HEAT is hiding in the oceans too :eek: And that didn't happen in the last century ???? Why NOT ???
The heat isn't hiding, it's been observed quite clearly. La Nina conditions always push heat into the ocean, and did in the last century. During El Ninos heat comes out. This not mysterious.

'The global mean surface temperature trend over 1998–2012 is roughly one third of the trend over 1951–2012'
Not a pause, then, but a slowdown up to 2012. It's 2015 now and the question can be answered : a blip, not something permanent. Two years have restored the trend, but that sort of thing happens with such short timescales. The slower trend was not robust, as you can see from the data.


Nope lomiller, I'm not buying it ... the PAUSE is real but the excuses are not :wink:
There is, and was, no pause. There was a slowdown which coincided with a phase-change of the PDF from warm to cool. When the phase changes back, which it almost certainly will in the next ten years, you'll find there's a surge to explain. Youd better hope that the Sun doesn't go quiet or you'll find that very difficult.
 
And you STILL haven't dealt with the small matter of ALL the changes in THIS ..

As the Sun becomes less active in the last two decades ALL the planets have been changing in the solar system, care to address this ? Or do you think that's Our fault too ? :rolleyes:


What is there to address? you have yet to
a) provide a physical mechanism whereby magnetic changes in the Sun impact planetary temperature
b) provide any evidence there are related changes going on access the solar system
 
Please stop spamming the same old links over and over again. I don't know why this is allowed.

You wait until Reality Check wakes up. then you'll Really see ... the same old links over and over again :D

You won't accept the mountains of data we have about the Earth, how much data do you have about the other planets?

P.S. I like the hiliting. Keep it up.

No Problem ;)

Good link, you should red it. Here is what it has to say. Here is what your link has to say.


They also put "warming hiatus" in quotes to signify they are not the ones claiming there has been a pause...

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=178&pictureid=9450[/qimg]

Pause or Warming Hiatus or Slowdown or as I say sometimes Simmer .... it's ALL the Same i.e. NO STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT WARMING for nearly two decades then NEXT comes the rapid DROP in Global Temperatures in a Grand Solar Minimum :eye-poppi

I still like the escalator

[qimg]http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics/Escalator500.gif[/qimg]

And this is quite good too

[qimg]http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/climatedenierlogic.jpg[/qimg]

It's a Turning Point ... you think the Trend was going ON forever ? :p

That's an idiosyncratic exegesis. I have great admiration for the Met Office but they've made a mistake in using the term pause and then talking about a slowdown. As for the media they're generally not smart enough to make things up, they leave that to the likes of Morano.

There is no pause - look at the data.

Hiatus in quotes. That means they're not endorsing the term. The quote you provide refers to a slowdown between 1998 and 2012; it's 2015 where I live. lomiller has illustrated how a pause is conjured up taking full advantage of the massive outlier 1998.

There is, and was, no pause.


The heat isn't hiding, it's been observed quite clearly. La Nina conditions always push heat into the ocean, and did in the last century. During El Ninos heat comes out. This not mysterious.



Not a pause, then, but a slowdown up to 2012. It's 2015 now and the question can be answered : a blip, not something permanent. Two years have restored the trend, but that sort of thing happens with such short timescales. The slower trend was not robust, as you can see from the data.


There is, and was, no pause. There was a slowdown which coincided with a phase-change of the PDF from warm to cool. When the phase changes back, which it almost certainly will in the next ten years, you'll find there's a surge to explain. Youd better hope that the Sun doesn't go quiet or you'll find that very difficult.


I agree it will be VERY difficult in NEW LITTLE ICE AGE CONDITIONS
[URL="http://www.eh-resources.org/climate3.html"]Little Ice Age

"There is substantial historical evidence for the Little Ice Age. The Baltic Sea froze over, as did many of the rivers and lakes in Europe. Pack ice expanded far south into the Atlantic making shipping to Iceland and Greenland impossible for months on end. Winters were bitterly cold and summers were often cool and wet. These conditions led to widespread crop failure, famine, and population decline. The tree line and snowline dropped and glaciers advanced, overrunning towns and farms in the process. There was a lot of social unrest as large portions of the population were reduced to starvation and poverty"

What is there to address? you have yet to
a) provide a physical mechanism whereby magnetic changes in the Sun impact planetary temperature
b) provide any evidence there are related changes going on access the solar system


I already DID and it's HERE ... deal with it ... don't sand dance around :D :p :D
 
I already DID and it's HERE ... deal with it ... don't sand dance around :D :p :D

A quick scan of the articles in the post you have linked to suggests that you have no evidence. This may come as a shock to you Haig but Fox News and Forbes are more political than science based. Your first link is actually a reasonable article, the main thrust of it being that the IPCC is too conservative in it's estimates. The last link to the NYT like the first one is also quite reasonable if you don't just read the headline. For instance:

As you might imagine, those dismissive of climate-change concerns have made much of this warming plateau. They typically argue that “global warming stopped 15 years ago” or some similar statement, and then assert that this disproves the whole notion that greenhouse gases are causing warming.

Rarely do they mention that most of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently. Moreover, their claim depends on careful selection of the starting and ending points. The starting point is almost always 1998, a particularly warm year because of a strong El Niño weather pattern.

Somebody who wanted to sell you gold coins as an investment could make the same kind of argument about the futility of putting your retirement funds into the stock market. If he picked the start date and the end date carefully enough, the gold salesman could make it look like the stock market did not go up for a decade or longer.

I have just realised that I missed two links at the end of the post you linked to. How on earth do you think they support your argument? Really all you showing by those links is proving your lack of evidence. Posting all these links without discussion is against the rules you know. Especially as you repeat them over and over.
 
Haig doesnt like to answer uncomfortable questions like

why the ocean heat is through the roof???
after all 90+% of AGW is taken up by the oceans...

and

does CO2 absorb IR ??

They expose the fallacy of his contention
 
Haig doesnt like to answer uncomfortable questions like

why the ocean heat is through the roof???
after all 90+% of AGW is taken up by the oceans...

and

does CO2 absorb IR ??

They expose the fallacy of his contention


This exposes the fallacy of your contention :)

Earth-Facing Quiet, Solar Pole Flip, Quake Factor Analysis | S0 News January 24, 2015


This gives The Sun's Polar Field strength from 1976 to the present time. Notice how weak the Sun is now compared to the last century when it was strong and very active. Global warming was the result ! Now expect Global Cooling in this century !

Wilcox Solar Observatory Polar Field Observations
These WSO data are intended to be the most untouched measure of the solar polar field strength, i.e. presented with the least possible amount of processing.

The Sun's Polar Field strength is measured in the polemost 3' apertures at WSO each day, north and south.


Solar System Scope:
 
This exposes the fallacy of your contention :)

Earth-Facing Quiet, Solar Pole Flip, Quake Factor Analysis | S0 News January 24, 2015


This gives The Sun's Polar Field strength from 1976 to the present time. Notice how weak the Sun is now compared to the last century when it was strong and very active. Global warming was the result ! Now expect Global Cooling in this century !

Wilcox Solar Observatory Polar Field Observations



Solar System Scope:

None of which answers the question you were asked. Nor do the links that work say what you claim they say. So in other words you just thump your particular bible and Gish gallop around the room.
 
Of course it can be disproven though I doubt you can. First take an atmosphere sample and show me that CO2 is not approaching ~400 ppm. Not likely to do that. Then measure the amount of CO2 released by burning the calculated total world fossil fuel usage. Not likely to prove that wrong either, though you are welcome to try. Then take some soil samples and ocean samples and measure carbon. Now explain why the worlds soil carbon is radically reduced, and the dissolved CO2 in the oceans is rising. Or prove those measurements are wrong. Lastly prove the physics experiments wrong that measured the greenhouse insulating effect of CO2.
Sure it's rising and we have The Pause for nearly two decades.
I gave you a whole list of ways to falsify AGW and your answer is that?:jaw-dropp You do understand the "pause" is a pause in the acceleration of the rate of increase right? Primarily due to the ocean sink acting like a buffer. But the heat energy is still there. It hasn't actually stopped increasing, and we humans like a frog on slow boil. You have to know that. It's on that graph you keep posting.
Carbon Dioxide -- Summary PDF
"A final concern related to the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 concentration is the worry that it may lead to catastrophic global warming. There is little reason to believe that such will ever occur, however, for several observations of historical changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature suggest that it is climate change that drives changes in the air's CO2 content and not vice versa. In a study of the global warmings that signaled the demise of the last three ice ages, for example, Fischer et al. (1999) found that air temperature always rose first, followed by an increase in atmospheric CO2 some 400 to 1000 years later."
Yes. That's what is called a positive feedback. It's is why the climate scientists are worried. If AGW triggers the same effect that (as you admit) is seen in every previous case, then it will be too late. Even going zero emissions won't stop the CO2 from rising for 400 to a 1000 years or more. No one really knows how long, but it will be geological timeframes. At that point, if it happens, civilization as we know it is screwed. There will hopefully be a few survivors, but not modern civilization. It will likely be similar to when the Mayans abandoned all their cities and fled into the jungles to exist as hunter gatherers, only instead of one civilization, it will likely be the whole world.

Note this ...

"even very high CO2 concentrations - some as much as 100 times greater than those of the past century - appear to benefit earth's vegetation."
Not only did I note it, I mentioned it. That is the biological carbon cycle. Nature has a built in self correcting buffer to handle fluctuations in natural emissions. That is part of the buffer mechanism. Potentially at full functionality they could handle the excess CO2 with that very mechanism you mentioned. Unfortunately we humans have made such an impact on the world's ecosystems that the relatively small emissions we have from burning fossil fuels is still too large for the highly degraded ecosystems to buffer. Not because emissions are huge compared to the total natural global carbon cycle, but instead because we have largely destroyed the functionality of that ecosystem service with agriculture, desertification and deforestation.

As an analogy, imagine a pack mule that can carry a 300 pound load (a very strong mule). Now what would happen if that mule bruised a hoof on a stone? It won't kill it. The mule will heal. But it can't carry the same load. It needs to rest and recover before it can carry those loads again. Ecosystems are analogous in that they also can't function at top ecosystem services efficiency until the ecosystem heals and recovers from the disturbance that "injured" it. Hard for a tall grass prairie that stretched as far as the eye can see in every direction to function as a sequestration sink when the prairie is gone and it is replaced with a method of agriculture that is an emissions source instead of a sequestration sink. So what if the tiny % remaining actually grows 10% better? There is less than 3% of it left. So what it functions like 3.3%? It isn't enough. Same thing can be said about the whole planet. All the terrestrial ecosystems on the whole planet are stressed, some more than others, but over all at least 40% dramatically reduced like our tall grass prairies. Don't even get me started on deforestation. Massive issues there as well.

Who knows if fossil fuel emissions would cause AGW if all our ecosystems were functioning at full efficiency? I personally doubt it. They are small compared to the total biological cycle. But that's conjecture. What we know for sure, by observation and measurement, is that they are too much for the ecosystems to handle in their current degraded state. That can't be denied by any thinking person.
 
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