You are not a skeptc Haig - you have to be informed to be a skeptic...you are just wilfully ignorant and scraping at anything to deny the obvious.
It's getting warmer
We're responsible.
This last quibble about warmest year is hilarious as is your insistence that LIA was solar rather than volcanic in origin...
Yes volcanoes can have a serious affect......got any ???
Oh dear macdoc!
NO it's
NOT getting warmer and
NO we're
NOT responsible.
It hasn't gotten warmer in nearly two decades. A calculated global temperature increase of
Two Hundredths of a Degree with an error bar of
One Tenth of a Degree is
THAT your
claim for panic ?
Dear macdoc that is
Not Statistically Significant it's a
PAUSE or as Abdussamatov said
"temperature will oscillate around the maximum that has been reached, without further substantial rise."
We aren't responsible and the effects of the trace gas C02 are not significant enough.
It's the Sun
We are on track for a New Little Ice Age and that won't be a easy time.
Volcano's ? You
THINK the Sun can't effect volcanism and seismic activity with outputs like it's magnetic and coronal holes ? Which
btw vary
massively from the "Hot" Sun to the "Cool" Sun.
Originally by Haig :
Not an answer. Will this rapid cooling start next year? In five years? Ten? It certainly didn't start at the beginning of 2013.
Not an answer. Thermal inertia cannot cause warming, only a positive forcing can, so how can the temperature "top out" without such a forcing?
The points I made don't have answers, they are simply statements of what climate science has predicted correctly with a slight diversion into things AGW deniers have incorrectly predicted.
Not an answer. Will this rapid cooling start next year? In five years? Ten? It certainly didn't start at the beginning of 2013.
Not an answer. Thermal inertia cannot cause warming, only a positive forcing can, so how can the temperature "top out" without such a forcing?
The points I made don't have answers, they are simply statements of what climate science has predicted correctly with a slight diversion into things AGW deniers have incorrectly predicted.
I didn't mention the poles and yet somehow you saw me do it. I mentioned Arctic sea-ice yet somehow you didn't see me do it.
Followed by a link to one of your authorities - WattsUpMyButt.
I spoke of frequencies and once again you respond to something else. It's as if you see a trigger-word - "ice", for instance, or "drought" - and out pops a stock response to that word. Try reading all the words, in the order they were written, and responding to their meaning (if you're going to respond at all).
Which will occur when? Next year? In five years? Ten years? And more to the question I asked, when did you first predict the imminent arrival of rapid cooling? Five years ago? Ten? More?
I know change is happening, not coming, and it will continue to warm. When will you give up waiting for rapid cooling to begin?
Humour me. If rapid cooling has not started in five years, and in fact 2020 is warmer than 2015, will you finally admit your authority has got it wrong? Or would it take ten years to shake your confidence? There surely must be some point at which you'd concede.
Gezz CapelDodger that's a lot of repetition
We do seem to talk passed each other a bit. You act like Habibullo Abdussamatov in
THE SUN DEFINES THE CLIMATE PDF has ingnored your issues but he obviously hasn't when you read it
To answer you clearly ... I will
concede by the
end of the Max of Solar Cycle 25 and that is hard to give an exact date for due to our variable Star being particularly strange for the last two decades ... just the same length of time as the Pause !!!
The Global Cooling, I understand, will be obvious to
ALL by then, and conditions of the Pause ... i.e. ...
No Statistically Significant Global Warming will continue until the rapid drop in cooling
Begins after the Max of SC25 is passed.
Let's say 2014 isn't the hottest year. It is instead the second hottest year. It doesn't change the trend.
Of the 10 hottest years on record, 9 have been in this century. Of the 15 hottest years on record, 14 of them have been the last 14 years.
That is not "oscillation around the maximum." That is unprecedented increase.
Do you realise how ridiculous that is ?
global temperature increase of Two Hundredths of a Degree with an error bar of one Tenth of a Degree
Just as Abdussamatov said "temperature will oscillate around the maximum that has been reached, without further substantial rise."
And this makes it
VERY CLEAR ...
Significance of the pause
Under conditions of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing:
•Only 2% of climate model simulations produce trends within the observational uncertainty
Modeled pauses longer than 15 years are rare; the probability of a modeled pause exceeding 20 yrs is vanishing small
Questions raised by the discrepancy
Are climate models too sensitive to greenhouse forcing?
Is climate model treatment of natural climate variability inadequate?
Is the IPCC’s ‘extremely likely’ confidence level regarding anthropogenic attribution since 1950 justified?
Are climate model projections of 21st century warming too high?
How confident are we of the observations?
And this ... my bold...
2014: Among the 3 percent Coldest Years in 10,000 years?
WUWT said:
We were told in October, before 2014 was over, that it was heading toward being the warmest year on record (Figure 1). The visual link of Polar Bears underscored the message. In fact, 2014 was among the coldest 3 percent of years of the last 10,000, but that doesn’t suit the political agenda.
Mine is a very serious question: why do you consider yourself better equipped than climate scientists to evaluate the evidence ?
Mine is a very serious answer: why do
you consider yourself better equipped to
agree with climate scientists
than to evaluate the evidence on your own ?
The Sun defines the climate.
That's all? Just the sun?
Surely you don't think some trace gas can ? ...
Absolutely, but when someone predicts the onset of rapid cooling soon then we can expect evidence of it in a much shorter period. We're already most of the way through one low-activity solar cycle so that's about eight years gone already. Another five should surely be enough to make it evident if it happens (which it won't, naturally). Haig may think differently, of course, perhaps wanting the full thirty, but then Haig does seem comfortable with much shorter periods when it comes to the mythical Pause.
Just wait until (or before) the MAX of Solar Cycle 25 has passed !
Ultimately, yes, as all power comes from the sun. But that's a simplistic and dare I say stupid way to deny climate change.
You would say that
The idea that Little Ice Age conditions would be a serious problem is, of course, utterly risible. When the world entered the last LIA the horse-collar was cutting-edge technology; when it came out we were on the verge of powered flight. In the meantime the human population had grown enormously and vast amounts of sunk capital had been created in our cities, farms, docks, factories, mines and transport systems. It's the 21stCE now. We've been to the Moon and sent robots to Mars. We laugh in the face of global cooling.
Global warming, in contrast, takes us places we've never been before. The LIA didn't make the Indus valley uninhabitable, but global warming might. That's one massive problem right there. Australia might become untenable for all but the black fellas, which is less of a problem but still a problem. That's just off the top of my head, and of course the unknown unknowns are what mess up your day.
If faced with a choice I'd opt for the global cooling myself.
World History doesn't agree with you ! Human Civilizations flourished during the Warm Periods and didn't during the Little Ice Age Times
Not only this, but if I recall correctly, Haig was making this prediction prior to the start of this latest solar cycle. Which means that there has been no pause in warming (with three of the hottest years on record (2005, 2010, 2014)occurring post his warnings of an imminent new ice age), yet alone cooling, in more than 8 years.
If we look at the last 30 years we see nothing but a warming trend in the climate.
Yes, it was me making that prediction (actually Habibullo Abdussamatov ) and No your NOT right in saying there has been no pause in warming.
Just as
Abdussamatov said "temperature will oscillate around the maximum that has been reached, without further substantial rise."
Guys Guys Guys .... why are you all sitting, up to your necks, in a river in Egypt ?
The Sun was VERY active in the 20th century but for the last two decades has been in RELATIVE decline. The present Solar Maximum in SC24 has been a extremely weak effort. The Sun's magnetic field is weakening at the same time as the Earths magnetic field, see below ...
In the last two decades ALL the Planets of the Solar System have been undergoing major changes !!!
Do you think that is
NOT related to the Changes in the Sun ?
If you
Don't think it is related to the Sun.
How do you explain it ? Time to wake up
Read the science sources below ... Try to see the Big Picture
Earth has been changing too, during the last two decades, along with ALL the Planets of the Solar System and will change much more in the New Little Ice Age
C(Lie)mate #3 - What Doesn't Make The News
Primary Citations:
NASA Solar-Climate Connection:
NASA Magnetic Field Inconsistency:
NASA Solar Wind Loses Power:
Cosmic Ray Nucleation:
Saturn Superstorm:
NewScientist Lowest Solar Low in 4 Centuries:
Reuters UN Climate Panel Corrects CO2:
Wall Street Journal Solar Strangeness:
Latest Sunspots:
Solar Magnetic Failure:
CO2 Breaks the Correlation:
CO2/Temp Timelines:
Magnetic Field Failing:
HERE,
HERE,
HERE,
HERE,
HERE and
HERE
No Warming Articles--
HERE,
HERE,
HERE,
HERE,
HERE and
HERE
Ice Age Potential:
CATO on Climate:
The rest of the articles can be found here:
https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers/featured... along with most of the ones above too.
Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model PDF
Fig. 6 Near-term global warming projections (brick-red region) on
[0.13, 0.50] K decade–1, compared with observations (green region)
that fall on [0.0, 0.11] K decade–1, and the simple model’s 21stcentury
warming projections (yellow arrow), falling on 0.09 [0.06,
0.12] K decade–1
