Global warming discussion III

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2010 was warmer than 2009 so there has already been deviation from that graph. Would you consider at least one more new global temperature record being set in the next five years a significant enough deviation to conclude the predicted slope is wrong? In the next 10 years? The next 15?
If you look at what I said ...

"Any significant deviation from the slope on Fig 8 would be a surprise for me but, so far, we are on-trend for severe cooling."

If you accept the anomaly averages from the table below

2010 was 0.53 and for 2009 0.47 so the diff is 0.06 °C

If you put that on the slope on Fig 8 it's unnoticeable with the scale Abdussamatov uses. We (in 2014) are on the flat, no statistically significant rise or fall since 1998 actually ... i.e. The Pause

There will be NO mistaking when we are on the downward slope, the cooling will be rapid as it has been in other Grand Solar Minimums.

The table provides the top 10 rankings for all three datasets:
Rank HadCRUT3 NOAA NCDC NASA GISS
Year Anomaly * Year Anomaly * Year Anomaly *
1 1998 0.52 2010 0.52 2010 0.56
2 2010 0.50 2005 0.52 2005 0.55
3 2005 0.47 1998 0.50 2007 0.51
4 2003 0.46 2003 0.49 2009 0.50
5 2002 0.46 2002 0.48 2002 0.49
6 2009 0.44 2006 0.46 1998 0.49
7 2004 0.43 2009 0.46 2006 0.48
8 2006 0.43 2007 0.45 2003 0.48
9 2007 0.40 2004 0.45 2004 0.41
10 2001 0.40 2001 0.42 2001 0.40
* Anomaly: °C above long-term average.

Well that's what I feel will falsify my understanding on climate change.

What will falsify the Warmist view? Care to state it here? If not WHY NOT?

THE SUN DEFINES THE CLIMATE Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc
.http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/abduss_nkj_2009.pdf

article-2093264-1180A549000005DC-715_468x290.jpg
 
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New Climate Model Introduced, now with knobs!
"Due to the cutbacks in funding for climate science, a new climate model has been introduced to help politicians justify unnecessary laws that regulate carbon dioxide emissions…"

Introducing…
 
If you look at what I said ...

"Any significant deviation from the slope on Fig 8 would be a surprise for me but, so far, we are on-trend for severe cooling."

If you accept the anomaly averages from the table below

2010 was 0.53 and for 2009 0.47 so the diff is 0.06 °C

If you put that on the slope on Fig 8 it's unnoticeable with the scale Abdussamatov uses.

Quite. Which is why I asked you to clarify what you would consider a significant deviation. I'm still waiting.

We (in 2014) are on the flat, no statistically significant rise or fall since 1998 actually ... i.e. The Pause
So if in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 or 2019 the warming since 1998 is statistically significant that will falsify your point 1?

There will be NO mistaking when we are on the downward slope, the cooling will be rapid as it has been in other Grand Solar Minimums.
So that's statistically significant cooling over a 10 year period? A 15 year period? 20?

What will falsify the Warmist view?
CO2 is a greenhouse gas, so AGW is a fact. The only debatable point is what is the climate sensitivity, estimates for which vary between less than 2C to more than 4C. If there is ever a period of at least 20 years with no statistically significant warming (assuming no gamechangers like exceptional volcanic activity) then that would indicate the climate sensitivity is at the lower end of the estimates, which would be good news of course.

I would be prepared to wager a small sum on a new average global temperature record being set at least twice in the next 15 years, by which time your cooling graph will be looking very silly indeed.
 
Missing the point about Earths declining magnetic field (10 times faster than thought) is something to consider Reality Check
Missing the ability to read yet again, Haig :p:
Earth's Magnetic Field Flip Could Happen Sooner Than Expected
* "Earth's magnetic field, which protects the planet from huge blasts of deadly solar radiation, has been weakening over the past six months ..."
* ""Such a flip is not instantaneous, but would take many hundred if not a few thousand years," Floberghagen told Live Science."
Try reading this, Haig:
Still, there is no evidence that a weakened magnetic field would result in a doomsday for Earth. During past polarity flips there were no mass extinctions or evidence of radiation damage. Researchers think power grids and communication systems would be most at risk.

It's INDEED NO myth that the magnetic shield around the Earth has been weakening AND that it will play a part in the changes affecting us. Power grids beware :p!
It is a fantasy that a weakening magnetic field will magically reverse or even affect global warming :jaw-dropp!

The importance of geomagnetic field changes versus rising CO2 levels for long-term change in the upper atmosphere is a good paper.
A pity, Haig, that you do not understand that the "upper atmosphere" is not the surface of the Earth and cannot even understand a paper's abstract!
The Earth’s upper atmosphere has shown signs of cooling and contraction over the past decades. This is generally attributed to the increasing level of atmospheric CO2, a coolant in the upper atmosphere. However, especially the charged part of the upper atmosphere, the ionosphere, also responds to the Earth’s magnetic field...
Both processes are roughly equally important for long-term changes in ion temperature.
(my emphasis added)

The inanity of argument by crank YT video continues :jaw-dropp!
 
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Haig: It is not the Sun, Maunder Minimum will not stop GW

I notice you don't answer my question as to why the declining magnetic field of the Earth is being ignored. Why?
...sniupped warmist ranting...
Because that is a lie, Haig - you have linked to a new article stating that the magnetic field of the Earth is declining :jaw-dropp!
Earth's Magnetic Field Flip Could Happen Sooner Than Expected

The article mentioned the known effects of this (not any of your fantasies):
Still, there is no evidence that a weakened magnetic field would result in a doomsday for Earth. During past polarity flips there were no mass extinctions or evidence of radiation damage. Researchers think power grids and communication systems would be most at risk.
There is your fantasy that this will magically effect climate but you have presented no evidence of this. The ionosphere paper is actually evidence of ignorance about the structure of the atmosphere :p.

Dr. Baliunas on Weather Cooking Video 7 min
The inability to read continues: Dr. Sally Baliunas discusses the history of people's reactions to extreme weather.


THE SUN DEFINES THE CLIMATE Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc.
...
Full PDF HERE
Oh dear, Haig, falling back on the ignorance of an astronomer about climate as an excuse for your own continued ignorance!
The entire paper is so ignorant that it is not even wrong. That anyone would cite this paper shows an abysmal level of ignorance of climate science or total denial of global warming or an unhealthy obsession with the Sun.
I will point out a total lie in the first paragraph:
However, observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop.
Observations of the Sun actually show that the last 35 years of warming have nothing to do with the Sun since TSI has been constant.
Real climate science shows that a Maunder Minimum will have a negligible effect on global warming.

Here is the science for you to ignore yet again, Haig:
Climate Myth 2: Sun & climate: moving in opposite directions
Climate Myth 5: Global cooling - Is global warming still happening?
The Maunder Minimum myth is not even in the top 10!
Are we heading into a new Ice Age? (no :eye-poppi!)
 
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If you look at what I said ...

"Any significant deviation from the slope on Fig 8 would be a surprise for me but, so far, we are on-trend for severe cooling."
Citing figure 8 from a totally ignorant paper is bad, Haig. Citing what looks like a free hand diagram drawn from the author's imagination is even worse. You may as well cite the picture of a unicorn in a children's book :rolleyes:.

Show that you are smarter than that ignorant paper and can learn some climate science:
Haig (24 July 2014): It is not the Sun, Maunder Minimum will not stop GW!

You also need to learn that science progresses. This is a 2009 paper based on 2008 data. A competent person would not cherry pick this old (as far as solar cycle 25 predictions) paper. The author has ~10 as the maximum.
Long-term variations in the north-south asymmetry of solar activity and solar cycle prediction, III: Prediction for the amplitude of solar cycle 25 (01/2015)
"50±10 for the amplitude of solar cycle 25"
Prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 (12/2013)
"108.8×14.8 as the maximum SSN of cycle 25"
A Neuro-Fuzzy modeling for prediction of solar cycles 24 and 25 (03/2013)
"According to the model prediction the maximum amplitudes of the cycles 24 and 25 will occur in the year 2013 and year 2022 with peaks of 101±8 and 90.7±8, respectively."
Difference between even and odd cycles in the predictability of the amplitude of the around 11-year-period solar activity and prediction of the amplitude of cycle 25 (12/2012)
"we predict as of August 2012 that the maximum value of SSN of cycle 25 to be 112.0±15.1."
Prediction of sunspot number amplitude and solar cycle length for cycles 24 and 25 (07/2011)
"The sunspot number maximum in cycle 25 is predicted to occur in April 2023 with a sunspot number 132.1"
 
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New Climate Model Introduced, now with knobs!
"Due to the cutbacks in funding for climate science, a new climate model has been introduced to help politicians justify unnecessary laws that regulate carbon dioxide emissions…"

Introducing…
Citing wattsupwiththat is an instant fail, Haig :p.
Especially when it is an bit of sarcasm fairly irrelevant to this thread - we already know that wattsupwiththat is quite deluded about climate!
 
So to try to answer your further clarification ....

Any significant deviation from the slope on Fig 8 would be a surprise for me but, so far, we are on-trend for severe cooling.
It already has deviated, far more deviation in fact than the mainstream climate models. So what do you define as "significant deviation"?
 
It already has deviated, far more deviation in fact than the mainstream climate models. So what do you define as "significant deviation"?
We should not really say anything about Figure 8 since it is a hand drawn graph from a really bad paper by an astronomer on climate from 2008. So any deviation from it is a deviation from an imaginary line.

But the author was wrong in any case - temperatures actually rose from 2008 to 2009, a small increase from 2009 to 2010 , a decrease during 2012 and have been increasing since then: Wood For Trees, HADRCUT4 global mean, starting at 2008.

What Haig has not understood yet is that the pause is not global surface temperatures cooling or even staying constant. It is global surface temperatures not rising as much as expected from previous periods.
Thus that "on-trend for severe cooling" is quite ignorant to say the least.
 
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The warmist focus on C02 is just a tool to try to blame Humans for Global Warming but nature hasn't played along.

This short video should give you Pause for thought that we are prone to want to blame others for dire situations as we have many times in the past. Global Warming is no exception ...

Dr. Baliunas on Weather Cooking Video 7 min

That's seven minutes of my life I will never get back. Dr Baliunas was waving her arms so much I thought she might take flight.

She might consider one critical difference between now and then. Back then, science was almost non existent. We now have scientists around the globe researching climate and weather. What they say about weather events is quite measured, well analysed and researched.
 
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Originally Posted by Haig View Post
I notice you don't answer my question as to why the declining magnetic field of the Earth is being ignored. Why?

:dl:

can someone please shove this junk into the pseudo-science cess pool where it belongs...

This thread is about Global Warming not the upper atmosphere

A good understanding of the long-term behaviour of the upper atmosphere is essential; it affects a lot of satellite-based technology, such as global navigation systems and high-frequency radio communication systems. Some satellites even operate within the upper atmosphere itself.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-05-earth-magnetic-field-important-climate.html#jCp

You still have learned nothing about scale of energies involved in warming an ocean or a lower atmosphere....or choose not to learn.
 
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Worrying News

WASHINGTON—In a worrying development that could have dire implications for the health of the planet, a report published Wednesday by the Environmental Protection Agency suggests that the number of climate change skeptics could reach catastrophic levels by the year 2020.

According to the agency’s findings, the rising quantity and concentration of individuals who willfully deny or downplay the ruinous impact of the ongoing climate crisis will no longer be manageable by the end of the decade, leading to disastrous consequences for global ecosystems that may well prove irreversible.

Pretty sure that's sarcasm.:rolleyes:
 
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We are approaching a tipping point. After that, there will be no way to return to unmitigated fear and panic.
 
We are approaching a tipping point. After that, there will be no way to return to unmitigated fear and panic.

The proposals to replace fossil fuels with non CO2 producing sources of energy was quite rational and achievable. The unmitigated fear and panic was all about the end of civilisation that would result from removing our reliance on fossil fuels.
 
Worrying News



Pretty sure that's sarcasm.:rolleyes:

Pretty sure? Say it isn't so!

Is this also a lie? (I learnt the word "maul" with that, 6 years ago)

We can no longer trust The Onion!

I think I'll switch to Fox News. You can't cut corners to acquire good truthfully impartial information.

[No emoticons were hurt during the writing of this post]
 
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We are approaching a tipping point. After that, there will be no way to return to unmitigated fear and panic.
Where and when did you witness this fear and panic?

If you're referring to Wall St in October 2008, you're kidding yourself if you think we won't see that return.
 
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