If you look at what I said ...2010 was warmer than 2009 so there has already been deviation from that graph. Would you consider at least one more new global temperature record being set in the next five years a significant enough deviation to conclude the predicted slope is wrong? In the next 10 years? The next 15?
"Any significant deviation from the slope on Fig 8 would be a surprise for me but, so far, we are on-trend for severe cooling."
If you accept the anomaly averages from the table below
2010 was 0.53 and for 2009 0.47 so the diff is 0.06 °C
If you put that on the slope on Fig 8 it's unnoticeable with the scale Abdussamatov uses. We (in 2014) are on the flat, no statistically significant rise or fall since 1998 actually ... i.e. The Pause
There will be NO mistaking when we are on the downward slope, the cooling will be rapid as it has been in other Grand Solar Minimums.
The table provides the top 10 rankings for all three datasets:
Rank HadCRUT3 NOAA NCDC NASA GISS
Year Anomaly * Year Anomaly * Year Anomaly *
1 1998 0.52 2010 0.52 2010 0.56
2 2010 0.50 2005 0.52 2005 0.55
3 2005 0.47 1998 0.50 2007 0.51
4 2003 0.46 2003 0.49 2009 0.50
5 2002 0.46 2002 0.48 2002 0.49
6 2009 0.44 2006 0.46 1998 0.49
7 2004 0.43 2009 0.46 2006 0.48
8 2006 0.43 2007 0.45 2003 0.48
9 2007 0.40 2004 0.45 2004 0.41
10 2001 0.40 2001 0.42 2001 0.40
* Anomaly: °C above long-term average.
Well that's what I feel will falsify my understanding on climate change.
What will falsify the Warmist view? Care to state it here? If not WHY NOT?
THE SUN DEFINES THE CLIMATE Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc
.http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/abduss_nkj_2009.pdf
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