• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Global warming discussion III

Status
Not open for further replies.
No Haig: the 2003 (i.e. probably outdated) study...
Haig cited the actual study: Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21–23 and we are now in cycle 24 (11 years after the paper was published).

ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models (04/2014)
...(4) The occurrence of a significant upward TSI trend between the minima of solar cycles 21 and 22 and (5) a decreasing trend during solar cycles 22-23. ...
Our analysis provides a first order validation of the ACRIM TSI composite approach and its 0.037 %/decade upward trend during solar cycles 21-22. The implications of increasing TSI during the global warming of the last two decades of the 20th century are that solar forcing of climate change may be a significantly larger factor than represented in the CMIP5 general circulation climate models.
Note that they are still looking back to cycles 21 and 22 and speculating that the trend will continue into the future.
 
No Haig: A blog post is not science or a model! You really need to learn to distinguish between climate change cranks on the Internet and real climate scientists presenting valid climate science, Haig.

Too much ignorance stated on one web page to really address but basically this ignorant persons thinks that TSI can explain global warming and has an invalid idea that TSI will decrease producing cooling.
Dr David Evans (the Climate Denier List a list of scientists, real or imagined, pundits and loud mouths)


David Evans' Understanding of the Climate Goes Cold Posted on 15 April 2011 by dana1981




Because no "AGW alarmists" claimed that, Haig :eek:!
Climate scientists looked at the West Antarctic Glacier Melting and saw that it would be a reasonable consequence of global warming. Hotter temperatures = ice melts :p!

Now climate scientists know that there is an extra constant factor unrelated to the climate or GW - geothermal heating melts some of the underside of the glacier.
Researchers Find Major West Antarctic Glacier Melting from Geothermal Sources June 10, 2014
This is bad, Haig. It suggests that a collapse of the West Antarctic Glacier is more likely, i.e. the melting due to GW + the water underneath the glacier = the glacier slides off land into the sea.


The irrelevancy of Volcano discovered smoldering under a kilometer of ice in West Antarctica should be obvious to you, Haig, simply by reading the article :eye-poppi.
It has nothing to do with the melting of the West Antarctic Glacier.
The melt water from the volcano goes into the MacAyeal Ice Stream.

I work in IT. It's hard work and often very stressful. I don't know where he gets the idea he was on a "gravy train" writing computer models.
 
TSI true earth is basicly weather (seasons) , TSI 1 AU is climate. (on the other hand long term changes in TSI true earth are also part of climate, the milankovitch cycles)

You have no idea what you're talking about! That is the sentence with the higher density of conceptual mistakes per unit of text that I have ever read in my whole life.
 
You have no idea what you're talking about! That is the sentence with the higher density of conceptual mistakes per unit of text that I have ever read in my whole life.

what is wrong about it. and provide evidence for your assertions
 
Perhaps I'm missing something but is all this talk over 0.05% per decade?

The talk is pretty much about Haig linking even a plain ticket and calling it in support of his solar theories. Then a discussion arises around what of it Darwinianly survives in the posters interest. The winner was that trend of -0.05% taken from 3 "points" and supposedly important because those "points" cover a three-decade span, which significance is a risible endeavour to pursuit here, and maybe even in a highly specialized circle, well it has taken the local public and Haig has focused in selecting a handful of a bit less random items around it to keep the stone rolling.

The -.05% trend it's also worthy conceptual offspring of those TSI 1UA minutia some discuss here without even realizing if the Earth is round or flat.
 
what is wrong about it. and provide evidence for your assertions

It's a fantasy in its entirety. And if you still don't notice, chum, I am replying in the same style to everyone making a mesh of wishful thinking and ignorance weaved using sloppily googled papers, wikipedia pages, press articles and blog links, be them denialists or not.

You or Haig can dare me to explain in extenso, but I only will, as I always did, when I feel that is not an attempt to make me lose my time. You have showed that's the case with you.

"One is weather, the other is climate". Seriously, have you no sense of the ridiculous?
 
It's a fantasy in its entirety. And if you still don't notice, chum, I am replying in the same style to everyone making a mesh of wishful thinking and ignorance weaved using sloppily googled papers, wikipedia pages, press articles and blog links, be them denialists or not.

You or Haig can dare me to explain in extenso, but I only will, as I always did, when I feel that is not an attempt to make me lose my time. You have showed that's the case with you.

"One is weather, the other is climate". Seriously, have you no sense of the ridiculous?

you do realize that it is an analogy.

TSI true earth contains a component that plays no role to AGW. TSI1AU does not contain that component.
and TSI was brought up because someone beliefs changes in the sun are the cause of the warming. so normally we talk about TSI1AU and not TSItrueearth.

and as I showed, on the topic of AGW, TSI means TSI1au and not TSItrueearth.
 
Of course, now that finally DC has seen a small beam of sunlight, and Haig won't reply about the subject.

AleCowen, TBH your guessing game about what is/isn’t wrong with a given statement was more than a little annoying, especially when the distinction you are drawing is irrelevant to the context like it was here. If you have a correction or amendment to what someone has posted please, just say it and explain why you think it’s relevant.

Personally I have a much bigger problem with the error in your definition of TSI as IMO it fundamentally misrepresents how climate systems work.

It's measured 645 km above the Earth's surface and estimated perpendicularly the sun-earth axis. Its units are [any unit of energy]/[any unit of length]^2.

It units are not that of Energy but Energy flux or Rate of energy flow per area. In Si the base unit is (J/s)/m^2 or W/m^2. The key difference here is Rate, where you give it just as energy. Rate of energy change is not interchangeable with Energy in any context they are different values with different units. It's not like the distinction between lower troposphere and surface temperature or high at which you calculate irradiance that are relatively interchangeable most of the time
 
Here it is ... deal with it!

NASA STUDY FINDS INCREASING SOLAR TREND THAT CAN CHANGE CLIMATE
[qimg]http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/images/content/93617main_sun4m.jpg[/qimg]

Old, has been disputed in the literature and even if true doesn’t support your assertion. Your own link says it would need to persist for another century to contribute to global warming.


The challenged in the literature contends that there is an error in the way ACRIM data is extrapolated in the early 90’s when the ACRIM 2 satellite launch was delayed due to the challenger disaster. My own view is that the PMOD methodology is better but the problem is within the data itself so it may never be conclusively answered as to whether there is a very slight increase in TSI or a slight decrease in TSI over the last 3 decades. Either way the energy flux is far to small to be a factor is current climate change.
 
you do realize that it is an analogy.

TSI true earth contains a component that plays no role to AGW. TSI1AU does not contain that component.
and TSI was brought up because someone beliefs changes in the sun are the cause of the warming. so normally we talk about TSI1AU and not TSItrueearth.

and as I showed, on the topic of AGW, TSI means TSI1au and not TSItrueearth.

TSI 1UA and TSI alone [some add TOA (top of atmosphere) when they're talking of both, but I didn't see this helping] both are related to climate and unrelated to AGW. If one of both is going to be related with short term effects (the weather kind, for instance, even warmer nights), it would be the disaggregated TSI@1UA, with its short term effects of the extreme UV spectra (< 130 nanometres) during solar cycle peaks. Leave the Milankovitch cycles aside, as I highlighted that text from Willson's "alma business" because there is an oversell of the sun as a factor and the Milankovitch reference is more like a smoke screen to deviate the attention from how the planet works and to drive it into the highly specialized field of Willson and colleagues. I have no problem with people saying "what I do is the most important thing in the universe" because they are proud of their work, but a different thing is fighting Haig's fantasies about almost hidden factors that are obscure to almost everyone and they control the earth climate and are harbinger of global warming and incoming ice ages, because of his blunder of mixing up "highly specialized minutia" with "rotund overall effects hidden to most of us", born in an inability to understand what this kind of people read.

If you want to know how this really works, look for instance for the Chapman cycle and its relation with sun activity, FinROSE-ctm (Finnish chemistry transport model based on Rose model), and HAMMONIA (HAMburg Model Of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere) -Hammonia is the Latin name for Hamburg, by the way- for the modelization for analysis.

Haig declined to follow that. He will decline discussing anything that may make him fall from his fantasies. The problem is who others will do like him.

The problem is also not knowing that both
350px-Solar-cycle-data.png


and

picture.php


have legitimate origin but are exploited by denialists to sell their lies. If you are going to debate with a denialist from the very image -and concept- he exploits you are as good a general as that who accepts the battle field his enemy proposes.
 
It units are not that of Energy but Energy flux or Rate of energy flow per area. In Si the base unit is (J/s)/m^2 or W/m^2.

Yes, my mistake:

"Its units are [any unit of power]/[any unit of length]^2." or if you want "Its units are [any unit of mass]/[any unit of time]^3."

I think everyone realized that I used W/m2 so not comment on that. I have a problem using the English word "power" in a context related to physics. It looks improper from the point of view of my native vocabulary.
 
It's a fantasy in its entirety. And if you still don't notice, chum, I am replying in the same style to everyone making a mesh of wishful thinking and ignorance weaved using sloppily googled papers, wikipedia pages, press articles and blog links, be them denialists or not.

Which of course doesn't help educate anyone as to why something is wrong.

You or Haig can dare me to explain in extenso, but I only will, as I always did, when I feel that is not an attempt to make me lose my time. You have showed that's the case with you.

Respectfully, you had no problem wasting your time telling DC that he is not only totally wrong but laughably so. While I don't doubt that you are correct, perhaps a bit more meat than flourish would be a better way to spend your time.
 
Personally I have a much bigger problem with the error in your definition of TSI as IMO it fundamentally misrepresents how climate systems work.

It is not "my" definition, it is "the" definition. And most importantly it exactly represents the climate system as it works: it works pretty much ignoring what you are discussing here with Haig and have discussed with so many here in recent years, always in the same way, up to believe "it is the way" and "the climate system works this way".

When a denialist tries to link smoothed TSI@1UA with smoothed global temperature, sometimes to the point of removing the solar cycle from both records to show some woo-woo deep driver that is going to fall to 0 in an incoming "new Maunder" and drive us in a little ice age, they have found correlations that are not negligible as a product of the wide science of mathematics.

The problem is that you find way much better correlations if you link daily TSI with daily temperatures and conclude that TSI drives global temperatures with an almost 6-month delay. THIS IS POPPYCOCK of course, but much better poppycock that the poppycock proposed by the likes of Haig. The problem is both correlations lack a real physical basis. The woo-woo deep driver provides the denialists with both a culprit for the present and hope for the future they like to imagine. There's no gain for denialists in knowing how the real TSI affects the Earth, nor there's need to state the obvious from the side of sound science.

So there's a void, a hole, so to speak, where every denialist will fall. But it seems there's a need for most people this side of the border to fall in it and bruise badly before they understand how things work and how to deal with denialists, by the way, the only reasonable goal for a thread like this one in fora like this one. We are not doing science here. We are merely shooting rabid donkeys that are a danger for society with the weapons science provide to us. The problem is some donkeys have passed the rabies and those meant to control them are behaving like them.
 
TSI 1UA and TSI alone [some add TOA (top of atmosphere) when they're talking of both, but I didn't see this helping] both are related to climate and unrelated to AGW. If one of both is going to be related with short term effects (the weather kind, for instance, even warmer nights), it would be the disaggregated TSI@1UA, with its short term effects of the extreme UV spectra (< 130 nanometres) during solar cycle peaks. Leave the Milankovitch cycles aside, as I highlighted that text from Willson's "alma business" because there is an oversell of the sun as a factor and the Milankovitch reference is more like a smoke screen to deviate the attention from how the planet works and to drive it into the highly specialized field of Willson and colleagues. I have no problem with people saying "what I do is the most important thing in the universe" because they are proud of their work, but a different thing is fighting Haig's fantasies about almost hidden factors that are obscure to almost everyone and they control the earth climate and are harbinger of global warming and incoming ice ages, because of his blunder of mixing up "highly specialized minutia" with "rotund overall effects hidden to most of us", born in an inability to understand what this kind of people read.

If you want to know how this really works, look for instance for the Chapman cycle and its relation with sun activity, FinROSE-ctm (Finnish chemistry transport model based on Rose model), and HAMMONIA (HAMburg Model Of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere) -Hammonia is the Latin name for Hamburg, by the way- for the modelization for analysis.

Haig declined to follow that. He will decline discussing anything that may make him fall from his fantasies. The problem is who others will do like him.

The problem is also not knowing that both
[qimg]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0d/Solar-cycle-data.png/350px-Solar-cycle-data.png[/qimg]

and

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=907&pictureid=6637[/qimg]

have legitimate origin but are exploited by denialists to sell their lies. If you are going to debate with a denialist from the very image -and concept- he exploits you are as good a general as that who accepts the battle field his enemy proposes.

IPCC AR4 and AR5 (still have not read it completely) and every paper i did read refers to TSI1AU as just TSI, they call it Total Solar Irradiance. (and so does the first graph you posted )

Also TSI1au and TSI true earth include both the very same spectra, both values come from the same measurement.

why i used the weather analogy for TSI true earth is that it includes the planet's orbital eccentricity and the TSI1AU does not. and in regard to AGW the orbital eccentricity does not really matter IMO. Especially when you want to ignore the milankovitch cycles, so the orbital eccentricity remains the same each year.

and i as a layman find your way to deal with Haig's myth far more confusing than helpfull. Especially as you seem to be unwilling to explain properly what you try to communicate.

you can take your battles to the ground you want, just don't expect me to follow to that ground.
 
Last edited:
It is not "my" definition, it is "the" definition. And most importantly it exactly represents the climate system as it works: it works pretty much ignoring what you are discussing here with Haig and have discussed with so many here in recent years, always in the same way, up to

No it’s not. You specified Energy not Power or Energy flux. This is not only wrong it’s wrong in a meaningful way. While you do understand the distinction, it's not IMO a meaningless one and it's a particularly misunderstood distinction that confuses many people.

When a denialist tries to link smoothed TSI@1UA with smoothed global temperature, sometimes to the point of removing the solar cycle from both records to show some woo-woo deep driver that is going to fall to 0 in an incoming "new Maunder" and drive us in a little ice age, they have found correlations that are not negligible as a product of the wide science of mathematics.
Where you calculate TSI isn’t relevant. This isn’t what makes that particular denier argument wrong. Regardless of where you calculate it the changes in energy flux associated with solar cycles or even a maunder minimum are very small in comparison to what’s required to warm the atmosphere and surface of the ocean.

This means that any climate change that results is going to be very slow. Furthermore, climate sensitivity doesn’t care much about the source of net energy flux. You can’t get a high sensitivity to solar changes without also having a high sensitivity to greenhouse changes.

This is why I get back to people conflating Energy flux with energy. There is an inclination to think that “the Sun is hotter therefore the earth gets hotter along with it” which isn’t really how it works. An increase in TSI increases the inbound energy flux which creates a net imbalance in total flux so energy in the system increases. The speed of the increase is directly related to the size of the net flux. The end point for the warming is determined by internal factors in the system and doesn’t distinguish between the reasons for the net flux.

It’s pretty easy to work out that changes in flux Haig is talking about are too small to create the rapid change he’s attributing to it, in fact it’s a junior high math problem. The reason he’s wrong is that the energy doesn’t add up, not because of where he’s looking at TSI changes.
 
and i as a layman find your way to deal with Haig's myth far more confusing than helpfull. Especially as you seem to be unwilling to explain properly what you try to communicate.

you can take your battles to the ground you want, just don't expect me to follow to that ground.

I understand and agree. But you may consider that those ways to deal with the subject even in the ARs are highly influenced in style and emphasized content by the way denialists the like of Haig's inspirators dealt with the subject. Also, the ARs are not to state the obvious, to teach the masses nor stoop at denialists level, and denialists really fail at the very obvious in this subject. When you or others stick to the ARs and start some abstract hunting using Google with heavy bias toward the "shiny chunk of text" that appears to be the silver bullet, the cross or the string of garlic, you are perpetuating the same failed approach.

Also, I ignored Milankovitch cycles, first, because nothing really important has happened or is going to happen in the past or future century because of those; second, because its mention in the my quote taken from the website of Willson's employers is at best an oversimplification, if not an error: it fails to say that had been the axial precession half cycle behind we'd experience a very different planet with the same TSI.

Basically every warmer, denialist and everyone in the middle have to learn how the planet works. A figure showing daily TSI values with all its "variations" produces just a extremely thin and blurry curve when plotted like this sea ice extent. You would need a figure of some 5,000 pixels by 5,000 pixels and one-pixel thick curves to perceive it. That is the extent of the negligibility of the solar contribution to our present climate change (and the "up to 10% contribution to GW at most" many here -you, I don't remember- talked in discussions 4 or 5 years ago was a concession of AR3 to the old denialist propaganda, and it's no longer valid for the very same weakening of solar cycles that the new generation of denialists have being selling as a possible harbinger of a new little ice age).

But the fact that you may google and google and not find that plot doesn't mean it is not fundamental knowledge. Have you ever seen the image of an elliptic orbit in the ARs? It's also fundamental knowledge that the average temperature of the whole planet varies a lot along the year and produces a plot that may be a little bit blurry but it isn't thin at all. If you choose a shade from blues to reds through purples to represent the monthly values for year 1900 (pure blue) to 2013 (pure red), you find those curves showing warming clearly. You won't easily find this figure either. If you compare both figures "you won't find" you see that the planet warms when TSI falls and the opposite, meaning that there's much more than the Sun as King Star to determine the Earth climate and the negligible variations of TSI@1UA explain only minutia and not the big picture of climate change. TSI@1UA shows that real scientists -not the lame definition around the Oregon petition- have left no stone unturned to explain how it really works and mainly before pointing fingers towards their own species.
 
I understand and agree. But you may consider that those ways to deal with the subject even in the ARs are highly influenced in style and emphasized content by the way denialists the like of Haig's inspirators dealt with the subject. Also, the ARs are not to state the obvious, to teach the masses nor stoop at denialists level, and denialists really fail at the very obvious in this subject. When you or others stick to the ARs and start some abstract hunting using Google with heavy bias toward the "shiny chunk of text" that appears to be the silver bullet, the cross or the string of garlic, you are perpetuating the same failed approach.

Also, I ignored Milankovitch cycles, first, because nothing really important has happened or is going to happen in the past or future century because of those; second, because its mention in the my quote taken from the website of Willson's employers is at best an oversimplification, if not an error: it fails to say that had been the axial precession half cycle behind we'd experience a very different planet with the same TSI.

Basically every warmer, denialist and everyone in the middle have to learn how the planet works. A figure showing daily TSI values with all its "variations" produces just a extremely thin and blurry curve when plotted like this sea ice extent. You would need a figure of some 5,000 pixels by 5,000 pixels and one-pixel thick curves to perceive it. That is the extent of the negligibility of the solar contribution to our present climate change (and the "up to 10% contribution to GW at most" many here -you, I don't remember- talked in discussions 4 or 5 years ago was a concession of AR3 to the old denialist propaganda, and it's no longer valid for the very same weakening of solar cycles that the new generation of denialists have being selling as a possible harbinger of a new little ice age).

But the fact that you may google and google and not find that plot doesn't mean it is not fundamental knowledge. Have you ever seen the image of an elliptic orbit in the ARs? It's also fundamental knowledge that the average temperature of the whole planet varies a lot along the year and produces a plot that may be a little bit blurry but it isn't thin at all. If you choose a shade from blues to reds through purples to represent the monthly values for year 1900 (pure blue) to 2013 (pure red), you find those curves showing warming clearly. You won't easily find this figure either. If you compare both figures "you won't find" you see that the planet warms when TSI falls and the opposite, meaning that there's much more than the Sun as King Star to determine the Earth climate and the negligible variations of TSI@1UA explain only minutia and not the big picture of climate change. TSI@1UA shows that real scientists -not the lame definition around the Oregon petition- have left no stone unturned to explain how it really works and mainly before pointing fingers towards their own species.

off course i have
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-6-1.html
 
No it’s not. You specified Energy not Power or Energy flux. This is not only wrong it’s wrong in a meaningful way. While you do understand the distinction, it's not IMO a meaningless one and it's a particularly misunderstood distinction that confuses many people.

You deliberately/accidentally ignored my post #193 so you can say this. Had you not ignored it, what would have you said?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom