Global warming discussion III

[macdoc]

Hey good to see you engaged.

Hmm seems we are looking at the same issue over in the maybe thread.

Are you going to oversee the Annual Arctic Sea Ice thread as an offshoot?
What was the final outcome??? Hard to tell with the amount of noise from persons now departed.

 

[BenBurch]

Well, I'm not a moderator, and so I don't oversee anything, but I will keep setting up that thread every year until somebody tells me not to.

 

[macdoc]

Excellent - now about that mod position.....

 

[greybeard]

Now that the primary locus is moved on, this thread can be taken off moderation. This does not mean that a return to the behavior that got it there by other patrons will be tolerated, though. Keep it civil, folks.

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Kmortis

Thanks. All points noted.

 

[Trakar]

Middle Miocene climate instability associated with high-amplitude CO2 variability

Thanks. All points noted.

Agreed, and thanks to all who have brought the "return to the mean" of this thread's state to my attention, and encouraged me to not let this previous episode keep me from participating here.

Acknowledgements made...

"Middle Miocene climate instability associated with high-amplitude CO2 variability"

Snippet from abstract -

"...Here we present a new boron isotope-based CO2 record for the transition into the middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO) between 15.5 and 17 Myr that shows pronounced variability between 300 ppm and 500 ppm on a roughly 100 kyr time scale during the MCO. The CO2 changes reconstructed for the Miocene are ~2 times larger in absolute terms (300 to 500 ppm
compared to 180 to 280 ppm) than those associated with the late Pleistocene and ~15% larger in terms of climate forcing..."

Snippet from paper conclusion -
"...we hypothesize the existence of a multicomponent Antarctic ice sheet with at least one component (including a portion of the East Antarctic ice sheet), showing significant ice sheet variability at CO2 concentrations lower than the threshold predicted by coupled climate-ice sheet models [Cook et al., 2013;
Gasson et al., 2014; Mengel and Levermann, 2014; Pollard and DeConto, 2005]. An important implication of this finding is that present-day continental ice masses may become increasingly dynamic as the Earth system
approaches equilibrium with anthropogenic climate forcing."

Middle Miocene climate instability associated with high-amplitude CO2variability by Rosanna Greenop, Gavin L. Foster, Paul A. Wilson and Caroline H. Lear published in Paleocenaography DOI: 10.1002/2014PA002653

Should play a significant role in projections of sea level rise as we accelerate down the self induced climate change path we lack the wisdom to change.

 

[greybeard]

Agreed, and thanks to all who have brought the "return to the mean" of this thread's state to my attention, and encouraged me to not let this previous episode keep me from participating here.

Acknowledgements made...

"Middle Miocene climate instability associated with high-amplitude CO2 variability"

Snippet from abstract -

"...Here we present a new boron isotope-based CO2 record for the transition into the middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO) between 15.5 and 17 Myr that shows pronounced variability between 300 ppm and 500 ppm on a roughly 100 kyr time scale during the MCO. The CO2 changes reconstructed for the Miocene are ~2 times larger in absolute terms (300 to 500 ppm
compared to 180 to 280 ppm) than those associated with the late Pleistocene and ~15% larger in terms of climate forcing..."

Snippet from paper conclusion -
"...we hypothesize the existence of a multicomponent Antarctic ice sheet with at least one component (including a portion of the East Antarctic ice sheet), showing significant ice sheet variability at CO2 concentrations lower than the threshold predicted by coupled climate-ice sheet models [Cook et al., 2013;
Gasson et al., 2014; Mengel and Levermann, 2014; Pollard and DeConto, 2005]. An important implication of this finding is that present-day continental ice masses may become increasingly dynamic as the Earth system
approaches equilibrium with anthropogenic climate forcing."

Middle Miocene climate instability associated with high-amplitude CO2variability by Rosanna Greenop, Gavin L. Foster, Paul A. Wilson and Caroline H. Lear published in Paleocenaography DOI: 10.1002/2014PA002653

Should play a significant role in projections of sea level rise as we accelerate down the self induced climate change path we lack the wisdom to change.

Interesting. Welcome back Trakar.

 

[greybeard]

Michael Mann's Cabot institute lecture has gone online. I haven't had time to watch it all yet but given all the controversy it will be worth watching one of the leading experts in his field discuss the science and ethics involved in mankind doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by the middle of this century.

 

[Arnold Martin]

Michael Mann's Cabot institute lecture has gone online. I haven't had time to watch it all yet but given all the controversy it will be worth watching one of the leading experts in his field discuss the science and ethics involved in mankind doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by the middle of this century.

I took the time to watch the 49 minute video , I looked forward to Michael Manns explanation of the hockey stick graph the best he came up with was that someone else also came up with a hockey stick graph .... I do not see how that is relevant , the temperatures of the planet did not rise as predicted in his graph

He claims to be a double major in mathematics and physics , why is it that physicists who are skeptics are always bashed because they are not "climate scientists" ???

Mann mentions the banana slug in the Florida redwoods , says it is fragile and tiny climate changes could endanger it .... I ask how this fragile slug has survived thousands of years of extreme Florida heat mixed with hundreds of hurricanes ....

He mentions the 2012 Missouri heatwave and the 2003 European heatwave , but absolutely no mention of the record cold spells we have had recently . Convenient bias ???

He conveniently shows bone dry Lake Fisher Texas .... it caught my attention because there is a dead tree standing in the bone dry lakebed ... so I looked it up ..... it is a man made reservoir from 1952 , it had its highest water level in 1959 , went bone dry in 1970 , very low in 1987 , filled up in 1989 , now dry again.

He blames the droughts on climate change .... then he blames the extra rains and floods on climate change

He says we are addicted to fossil fuels as though it is an illegal substance or something .... It is not an addiction , fossil fuels heat and cool our homes , provide electricity , fuel our cars and 747's for our ski trips.

He preaches against paid advocates for denial
He has no problem with paid advocates who are warmists

He dislikes people who profit from fossil fuels that he buys
He does not mind profits made by warmists (Gore et al)

The last half of the video is basically an anti-republican rant

Then to top it all off he uses a photo opportunity of his daughter in front of a polar bear.

A Polar Bear trapped in a Pittsburgh Museum Aquarium

 

[Reality Check]

I took the time to watch the 49 minute video , I looked forward to Michael Manns explanation of the hockey stick graph the best he came up with was that someone else also came up with a hockey stick graph .... I do not see how that is relevant , the temperatures of the planet did not rise as predicted in his graph

Many things wrong in that post, Arnold Martin:

• The hockey stick graph does not need an explanation - it is a graph of measured temperatures.
• The hockey stick graph is not a prediction - it is a graph of measured temperatures.
• The hockey stick graph has been verified by multiple other authors and that is relevant!
  What evidence is there for the hockey stick?
  

  Since the hockey stick paper in 1998, there have been a number of proxy studies analysing a variety of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes and ice cores. They all confirm the original hockey stick conclusion: the 20th century is the warmest in the last 1000 years and that warming was most dramatic after 1920.

• Physicists who are skeptics are always bashed because they are not "climate scientists" are bashed because they are not climate scientists . Michael E. Mann is a working climate scientist with published work on climate science.
  ETA:
  

  Mann is author of more than 160 peer-reviewed and edited publications, and has published two books: Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming in 2008 and The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines, published in early 2012. In 2013 the European Geosciences Union described his publication record as "outstanding for a scientist of his relatively young age". He is also a co-founder and contributor to the climatology blog RealClimate.

• Lots of animals survive extremes. One aspect of the current global warming is that it is extremely rapid. That means that animals are less likely to adapt to the changing climates and extremes will be more likely to wipe them out.
• Let us see - there is this thing called global warming and Mann mentions heatwaves !
  It’s Cold and My Car is Buried in Snow. Is Global Warming Really Happening?
• Man made reservoirs do not magically fill with water - they are also affected by droughts.
• Global warming causes droughts and extra rains and floods. A warmer climate spurs the evaporation of water from land and sea and allows the atmosphere to hold more moisture—thus setting the stage for more extreme precipitation.
• We are "addicted" to fossil fuels - it will cause us pain to be weaned off them when they run out. That is a basic part of addiction. The only difference is that the pain is mainly economical rather then physical.
• Paid advocates for denial are basically anti-science given the strong evidence for AGW. Of course a scientist will preach against them!

 

[macdoc]

Extremes are norm thanks to a warming Arctic

We will get these waves of hot a cold all year with the weak jet stream.

It's a El Nino pattern even tho not declared an El Nino year.

The fronts are incredibly steep pressure changes spawning vicious storms and driving migraine sufferers like me up a wall.

Severe Weather Forecast: Heavy Rain in Northeast; Limited Severe Threat

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/severe-weather-tracker-page

This is the heart of the problem ( and California's as well )

Crazy weather traced to Arctic's impact on jet stream

19:00 26 September 2014 by Andy Coghlan

Sticky weather: the normal gentle curve of the jet stream is forced into becoming steeper and slower, causing hot or cold weather to "stick" for longer periods than normal

The rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice caused by climate change may be to blame for more frequent prolonged spells of extreme weather in Europe, Asia and North America, such as heat waves, freezing temperatures or storms.

These are relatively short-term periods of bizarre weather, like the cold snap that paralysed North America earlier this year, rather than longer-term rises in temperature.

They are related to "stuck" weather patterns, Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, told a conference on Arctic sea ice reduction in London on 23 September. "Is it global warming? I think it's safe to answer yes," she told the meeting.

more
http://www.newscientist.com/article...rctics-impact-on-jet-stream.html#.VEB-6r51Zic

It's worth reading and understanding as almost everyone in the mid latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere is impacted....and wild weather will be the norm

More intense storms and precipitation.....stalled highs as California has suffered from

Welcome to the Anthropocene.....interesting times.

Even the Pentagon acknowledges the threat

Pentagon warns the US military of climate change

16:30 14 October 2014 by Shaoni Bhattacharya
Magazine issue 2991. Subscribe and save
For similar stories, visit the Climate Change and US national issues Topic Guides
Climate change does not respect borders and we must work together to fight its threats. These are not the words of a tree-hugger, but the US Department of Defense.

A report published on Monday says that extreme weather, rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall and rising oceans could fuel armed insurgency and heighten the impact of a pandemic, through their effects on political instability, poverty, migration and resource disputes.

more
http://www.newscientist.com/article...-military-of-climate-change.html#.VECCbb51Zic

The only difference is that the pain is mainly economical rather then physical

Even that might not be the case if Lockheed's fusion breakthrough is validated next year.

 

[Trakar]

Michael Mann's Cabot institute lecture has gone online. I haven't had time to watch it all yet but given all the controversy it will be worth watching one of the leading experts in his field discuss the science and ethics involved in mankind doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by the middle of this century.

...and quite possibly, an additional doubling of it again by the turn of the century. A time when "business as usual" takes on a much more ominous portents.

 

[Red Baron Farms]

Hey guys! I'm going to venture in here again, I think. Damn I'll miss DC.

SO... what about the Western USA drought, eh? Now they say the aquifers have been pumped out so far that the decreased weight is causing the mountains to raise...

And of course we saw what happened with the Aral Sea.

The drought in this part of the West had a break. We had pretty good moisture this year. First year in many. But I doubt it had anything to do with rising mountains.

Ironically, I got so good at growing in drought conditions, that this year had slightly too much moisture and cool temps! I was a bit rusty in my techniques to reduce fungal diseases.

PS BTW I suspect if any effect on land rising, it wouldn't be the aquifers per se, so much as the soil water content.

 

[Corsair 115]

You meant "locust", not locus, right ?

If Locust are the problem, Marcus Fenix is the solution!

 

[macdoc]

Some positive news...

October 14, 2014
Study shows increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is lower than predicted because of plants

A team of researchers in the U.S. claims that climate models used to predict the rise in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are approximately 17 percent too high because they incorrectly approximate how much CO2 plants pull from the atmosphere. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the team describes how they studied the ability of plants to absorb increased amounts of CO2 and discovered that they are capable of pulling more out of the atmosphere than has been previously thought and the difference is approximately equal to the error difference reported by simulation models.
Plants, as most people learn in grade-school, use light as part of the photosynthesis process to convert the suns' energy into energy the plant can use to grow—oxygen is then emitted as a byproduct. What's not really clear is how plants in general respond to the presence of more CO2 in the air. Prior research has shown that some plants grow bigger, which tends to cause them to take in more CO2.
Recently, it's come to light that climate models have on average been off a little bit in predicting how much CO2 is being added to the atmosphere by man-made processes. More specifically, over the years, 1901 to 2010, that error rate has been found to be on average 17 percent too high, and scientists have been racing to figure out why.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-10-co2-atmosphere.html#jCp

every bit helps....plant trees [/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[macdoc]

the 900 lb gorilla - aquatic version....sneaks upon us with a big bill...

Acid damage to coral reefs could cost $1 trillion

18:30 08 October 2014 by Colin Barras

Ocean acidification is set to cost us $1 trillion by 2100 as it eats away at our tropical coral reefs.

That's the warning from a report released today by the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, which assesses the economic impacts the problem could have.

The ocean's pH is now 8.0, down from 8.1 in the mid-18th century. Because the pH scale is logarithmic, this change means that, over the past 250 years, the world's oceans have seen a 26 per cent increase in acidity – a result of the oceans absorbing about a quarter of our carbon dioxide emissions.

With ocean pH projected to dip to 7.9 by the end of the century, the oceans may soon be 170 per cent more acidic than they were before the industrial revolution – a change that is likely to affect not just our ecosystems, but our economies too.

Rapid pace

Ocean acidification is a trend that went largely unnoticed until a decade ago, but the rapid pace of scientific investigation since means huge progress has been made in understanding its effects.

"It's really challenging staying on top of the subject it's growing so rapidly," says Murray Roberts at Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh, UK, who co-edited the report.

more
http://www.newscientist.com/article...reefs-could-cost-1-trillion.html#.VDzxQr51aGM[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[macdoc]

Seems we still have some catching up to do with the 30s despite finally getting past the hottest years.

NASA study finds 1934 had worst North American drought of last thousand years
Date: October 14, 2014 Source: NASA

Summary:
A new study using a reconstruction of North American drought history over the last 1,000 years found that the drought of 1934 was the driest and most widespread of the last millennium. Using a tree-ring-based drought record from the years 1000 to 2005 and modern records, scientists found the 1934 drought was 30 percent more severe than the runner-up drought (in 1580) and extended across 71.6 percent of western North America.

If the RRR holds off California much longer then perhaps it will be superceded.
Drought and AGW still have a relationship that is not fully understood tho the stalling of high pressure due to the weakening jet stream was predicted to be an issue some years back and certainly came true in a woeful manner for California.

I wonder if it is possible to reconstruct a similar episode - as it would seem odd if the same mechanism was not responsible for the havoc in the 30s.
Do we have an ice record that might match up with a warm Arctic Ocean for that period as well.??

Seems so from this ( without really following the papers ) ( that might also explain the "blue northers" blasts of frigid air that were present.

Its true that ice extent was lower in the 1930s than it had been in the preceding 30 years. In particular, 1938 saw a dramatic reduction from the previous years - it was probably 1.4 M km^2 below the then long term average and maybe 0.6 M km^2 below the already low years in the late 30's (carefully measured using Eyeball, Mk I).

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/similar-melts-from-1938-43.html

Would be expected that the jet stream would behave similarly. However - the extents are waaaay different if you would beleive the 1938 sea ice record. I would guess recorded by fishermen around the fringes.

versus 2012

I must say trying to predict the weather patterns this fall to plan motorcycle trips is a serious exercise in frustration thanks to the wavering jet stream.

Blasts of cold ( last Sat was below freezing at night and now it's over 20 at 10 pm. ) with the accompanying storms and tornadoes in the sharp fronts ( and my pressure change migraines ).

Should be an interesting winter if we actually do get an El Nino which still is sitting at 50%.

oops - they upped the likelihood but of a weak one.

Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 - January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 0.9oC) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

The monster lurking in the Pacific earlier seems to have lost some teeth.

Astonishing anomalies given the scale

Interesting times.

 

[macdoc]

Quite a string of record months ....2014 must on track for hottest none El Nino tho I swear it's a Nino weather pattern just now.

NASA saying hottest 6 months

The hottest six months in history? April to September 2014 were the warmest since records began, Nasa claims

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...-records-began-nasa-claims.html#ixzz3GBTWLGFO

Good article covers off the drought status in California as well. Better than usual for the Mail

The April anomaly in Siberia is astonishing....no wonder methane caverns are popping their corks...

7.9 C above normal !!!

Now you can get astonished all over again

 

[Arnold Martin]

Some positive news...

every bit helps....plant trees

,
What gives <SNIP> ??? A couple of months ago you pounded on me when I mentioned how well plants and crops are growing with increased CO2

Now you post the same information to explain why the planet has failed to come to a slow boil like you predicted.

 

[macdoc]

THIS ...is nutrition...

Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition
Samuel S. Myers, Antonella Zanobetti, Itai Kloog, Peter Huybers, Andrew D. B. Leakey, Arnold J. Bloom, Eli Carlisle, Lee H. Dietterich, Glenn Fitzgerald, Toshihiro Hasegawa, N. Michele Holbrook, Randall L. Nelson, Michael J. Ottman, Victor Raboy, Hidemitsu Sakai, Karla A. Sartor, Joel Schwartz, Saman Seneweera, Michael Tausz & Yasuhiro Usui

Dietary deficiencies of zinc and iron are a substantial global public health problem. An estimated two billion people suffer these deficiencies1, causing a loss of 63 million life-years annually2, 3. Most of these people depend on C3 grains and legumes as their primary dietary source of zinc and iron. Here we report that C3 grains and legumes have lower concentrations of zinc and iron when grown under field conditions at the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted for the middle of this century. C3 crops other than legumes also have lower concentrations of protein, whereas C4 crops seem to be less affected.

Differences between cultivars of a single crop suggest that breeding for decreased sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentration could partly address these new challenges to global health.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v510/n7503/full/nature13179.html

THIS is understanding how plants have absorbed more CO2 than expected thus muting AGW

Abstract
In C3 plants, CO2 concentrations drop considerably along mesophyll diffusion pathways from substomatal cavities to chloroplasts where CO2 assimilation occurs. Global carbon cycle models have not explicitly represented this internal drawdown and therefore overestimate CO2 available for carboxylation and underestimate photosynthetic responsiveness to atmospheric CO2. An explicit consideration of mesophyll diffusion increases the modeled cumulative CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) for global gross primary production (GPP) from 915 to 1,057 PgC for the period of 1901–2010. This increase represents a 16% correction, which is large enough to explain the persistent overestimation of growth rates of historical atmospheric CO2 by Earth system models. Without this correction, the CFE for global GPP is underestimated by 0.05 PgC/y/ppm. This finding implies that the contemporary terrestrial biosphere is more CO2 limited than previously thought.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/10/10/1418075111

You appear to be unable to grasp the difference

 

[macdoc]

Hydrological consequences of a warming planet continue apace....astonishing rain events...

snip

Climate Change Plays Havoc With World’s Weather as Europe/UK Fear Storms This Fall and Winter

In a warming world, drought and deluge are far more common. The added heat increases the rate of evaporation and amplifies the hydrological cycle such that the atmosphere holds 6 to 7.5 percent more moisture per each degree Celsius of heating. This is roughly equal to an increase in the rate of evaporation and precipitation by 6 to 7.5 percent as well. So where droughts occur, they will tend to be more severe and where strong storms develop, they will tend to dump even heavier volumes of rainfall. And a warming of the polar regions coincident with snow and ice loss, plays havoc with both the Jet Stream and traditional storm tracks even as the increased instability generates ever-more-powerful storms.

For a Europe facing off against an Atlantic and Arctic undergoing these wrenching changes, the story is altogether related. Sections of Southern France over a recent six week period received enough rain for an entire year. The Mediterranean waters off this region had heated to between 3 and 4 C above average dumping an intense load of moisture into a hungry upper level low that delivered storm after storm to the beleaguered regions. One spate of deluge dumped a full six months of water from the skies in just three hours.
Meanwhile, the UK may now be staring down a fall and winter season that may bring with it a return to the terrible and historic storms witnessed just last year.

good overview
http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/category/climate-change-2/

clearly extreme weather events are the most damaging early consequences,