Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

Status
Not open for further replies.
Corsair 115 said:
It is telling that he conspicuously avoids the questions I put to him earlier, questions which are central to his support of his thesis.

(It's fun to consider that this seeming "politically-driven" idea of global warming goes back a long way. The Kyoto Protocol was signed back in 1997. The evidence was considered sufficiently compelling seventeen years ago to convince nations around the world to sign the agreement. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was founded way back in 1990. That's twenty-four years ago. The IPCC was established in 1988. That's twenty-six years ago. Way back in 1973 the film Soylent Green referenced global warming/climate change. Of course, it wasn't called that in the movie; rather, it was called 'greenhouse effect'. Same thing, though.

It is truly amazing how this 'politically-driven' idea of global warming is a conspiracy that's some twenty-five years in the making. And was even mentioned in Hollywood entertainment thirty-one years ago. The sheer patience of this conspiracy is incredible!
Click to expand...

and we can go back even further

1958


1938
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49706427503/pdf

1896
http://rsclive3.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
 
ABC10 said:
Isn't it climate disruption now or something like that? All that word salad by the Warmer's. All the "discoveries" made - what's it got to do with GW?
Click to expand...

global warming causes climate change and might cause climate disruptions, whatever that exactly means.
 
ABC10 said:
The climate has changed for 4 1/2 billion years. In fact, poles may melt, sea level might rise but no amount of windmills, carbon taxes, solar panels , riding horses instead of driving cars is going to change that one bit. Mother Nature is gonna do what it is going to do and nothing we humans can do will stop her. The Viking called Greenland, Greenland for PR purposes and also when they saw it, it was a green land as far as they could see and stayed till they got driven out by the cold.
Click to expand...

Climate change always happens for a reason. That is a physical fact. The investigations of scientists demonstrate that the reason it is now warming is mainly due to the massive increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.
 
DC said:
well to use your terminology.

mama nature started cooling this planet some 2000 years ago in agreement with the milankovitch cycles. this long term cooling trend can be seen in the PAGES Reconstructions and Esper et al 2012.
and that the milankovitch cycles are towards cooling has been known since atleast 1976 (Hays et al 1976)

but then the 20th century warming kicked in and has undone 2000 years of cooling in lessthan 100 years. first mainly do to increased solar activity but since around mid 20th century, anthropogenic forcings are the dominant forcings.

so mama nature not only tries to cool the planet with orbital focings, she tries to cool the planet by decreasing solar activity yet mama nature fails, because (Currently) she cannot compete with our forcings on the climate system.
Click to expand...

And this isn't to say that during the period when solar activity was still the primary forcing agent, there wasn't a human forcing signal, merely that up until the planetary industrial surge which occurred (during and) after WWII, the human signal was smaller than the solar forcing factor.
 
DC said:
what is your opinion? will this boy grow as big as the one in 98?
Click to expand...

Too early to say. So far it looks like a mild one but. according to what and who I'm connected, one of the most probable mid-term scenarios -most probable doesn't mean much probable- is the 3.4 index reaching a mild positive value, say 0.8, 1 or 1.2, keeping it for some months and then returning to positive near-to-neutral values, and then, by the end of 2015, climbing up to values that could compare with those of 1998 and staying there at least a year. Anyway we're probably going to experience record global temperature anomalies soon. Sea surface anomalies were near absolute record last April and it looks this May is so far even warmer.

The key factor is the end of cycle with large heat accumulation in deep South Pacific waters and all the processes happening around the equinoxes that may suggest heat accumulation in the first 300m of ocean.

Anyway, I think nothing very extreme is going to happen in the North Atlantic for the rest of the year or until the end of 2015. Maybe expect one or two run-of-the-mill hurricanes between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Fall 2015 would be a horse of a different colour.
 
Last edited:
meanwhile back in the ice loss arena ...not good news.

Why losing glaciers matters
May 23, 2014 11:38 AM
By Quirks
bobmcdonald-190.jpg
By Bob McDonald, Quirks & Quarks

The Earth is losing its ice faster than scientists have predicted. The loss of the white stuff is changing the colour of the planet, accelerating global warming, and could have serious consequences for low lying cities.

Maps of the world usually show Greenland and Antarctica as vast areas of white, which is pretty much all that explorers found when they crossed the enormous ice sheets, and what you see looking down from modern aircraft.

Now, thanks to ice-penetrating radar instruments carried by some of those planes, as well as satellite data, the geography of the land beneath the white is becoming visible. It turns out that the ice is hiding deep valleys and tall mountain peaks as rugged as the Rocky Mountains.

Some of those glacial valleys are below sea level, and that has scientists concerned.

Last week, a report described how warm ocean currents are undercutting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which actually lies on ground below sea level. This, scientists think, means the ice sheet has passed the point of no return and will inevitably collapse as water encroaches and tears away at the massive ice sheet that represents nearly 10 per cent of the ice on Earth.

This week another report showed that some glaciers in Greenland are also sitting in sub-sea-level valleys. So as the toes of those glaciers retreat, the sea water will follow them up the valleys, causing them to erode more quickly than if the valley floors were higher and drier.

Yet another report showed that glaciers in Alaska and British Columbia are retreating faster than predicted. In fact, all glaciers on Vancouver Island will be completely gone in just 25 years.

This loss of ice is having a multitude of effects on the entire planet. It's changing the colour of the Earth, or in astronomical terms, the planet's albedo. That's a measure of how much sunlight a planet absorbs compared to how much it reflects back into space. White reflects sunlight, so glaciers and ice sheets have been keeping the Earth cooler than it would be otherwise.

As ice disappears, it is replaced by dark land or sea water, which absorbs sunlight and turns it into heat. This process accelerates in a feedback loop that warms the planet faster as the area of the ice gets smaller and smaller.

This heating effect is in addition to the heating caused by our carbon emissions into the atmosphere.
Click to expand...
more
http://www.cbc.ca/newsblogs/technology/quirks-quarks-blog/2014/05/why-losing-glaciers-matters.html
 
Corsair 115 said:
Well, that's the Sith rule: there can only be two, a master and an apprentice! (So if Gore was the apprentice, who was the master?)
Click to expand...
Bill Clinton's dick, as I recall.

I also recall hysterically alarmist predictions of inevitable bankruptcy for all the nations that signed up. Which would have happened by now, so there's a fail. Lindzen's Iris is another. The long-term cooling trend we'd entered by 2005? Shot away already.

AGW deniers haven't really had any successes at all in thirty years that I recall. Still trying to deal with the first Hockey Stick while dozens more wait in the in-tray.
 
aleCcowaN said:
The key factor is the end of cycle with large heat accumulation in deep South Pacific waters and all the processes happening around the equinoxes that may suggest heat accumulation in the first 300m of ocean.

Anyway, I think nothing very extreme is going to happen in the North Atlantic for the rest of the year or until the end of 2015. Maybe expect one or two run-of-the-mill hurricanes between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Fall 2015 would be a horse of a different colour.
Click to expand...

Nothing's going to happen in a rush, that's for sure. On the scale of the Pacific nothing really can. That big red blob is going to be leaking out heat for a good while, though, even if it gets pushed back by stronger trades. I can't see there being any mechanism to get the warm water back down until it reaches the Western Pacific again.

It's going to be interesting.
 
Of course it's a reason to celebrate. Just like every flood, drought, hurricane or heat wave is a reason to dance around crowing "You see? I told you so!"

This is how science works.
 
Southeast Australia Endures Fall Heat Wave After Another Record-Breaking Summer
BY KATIE VALENTINE ON MAY 22, 2014 AT 11:13 AM

A fall heat wave has broken records in southeast Australia, with temperatures 9°F above average for May.
Earlier this month in Adelaide, the 81°F high was the hottest ever recorded for this time of year. If the city has four more days above 68°F, it’ll break the 15-day May record set in 2002. Sydney has spent 13 days in a row above 71°F, which beats its last nine-day record set in 2007. Forecasts have the heat sticking around the city for another seven days.
These temperatures aren’t high enough to cause major problems in the cities, besides prompting Sydney officials to keep swimming pools open longer than they usually do.

But the warm fall does come on the heels of another “angry summer” in Australia, one that broke 156 temperature records in the country. In 2014, Sydney suffered through its driest summer in 27 years, Perth had its second-hottest summer on record, and Adelaide sweltered through a record 11 days at or above 107.6°F. Officials were also forced to halt the 2014 Australian Open after temperatures reached 110°F.

A report from Australia’s Climate Council, the privately-funded group that issues reports on the effects climate change is having in Australia, found that eight of the country’s hottest summers have occurred in the past 15 years.
That intense heat and dryness has made bushfire season more dangerous — last year, for instance, New South Wales declared a state of emergency after bushfires destroyed 200 homes, with fires raging in conditions officials said were the most dangerous in 40 years.
Click to expand...

more

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/22/3440425/australia-fall-heatwave/

strange some people get all worried about imaginary radiation fears and ignore the actual unfolding risks around them....:rolleyes:
 
macdoc said:
more

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/22/3440425/australia-fall-heatwave/

strange some people get all worried about imaginary radiation fears and ignore the actual unfolding risks around them....:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

It's not a heat wave, as such, as it's not really hot, just a very pleasant mid 20's type of heat. It is very unusual to be this warm when we are on the edge of winter though. The deciduous trees are very confused about when they should be dropping their leaves, and the rose bushes I pruned are shooting already.

That's fine for this time of the year, for us humans, (the rest of the biological world seems to be unsure of what is happening). I worry what summer will bring, when the extremes hit again.
 
Last edited:
r-j said:
Of course it's a reason to celebrate. Just like every flood, drought, hurricane or heat wave is a reason to dance around crowing "You see? I told you so!"

This is how science works.
Click to expand...

Record floods, record heat waves, record droughts, extreme hurricanes. If people would just accept the evidence, then we might do something about it now. Because if we are going to be able to manage the much worse extremes that will be imposed on the coming generations, it has to be done now. Once we get that CO2 up there, it stays there a long time, and we are putting more and more of it up there as fast as we can. As the cyrosphere shrinks, it's going to take a long time to restore it.

And we did tell you so.
 
a_unique_person said:
Record floods, record heat waves, record droughts, extreme hurricanes. If people would just accept the evidence, then we might do something about it now. Because if we are going to be able to manage the much worse extremes that will be imposed on the coming generations, it has to be done now. Once we get that CO2 up there, it stays there a long time, and we are putting more and more of it up there as fast as we can. As the cyrosphere shrinks, it's going to take a long time to restore it.

And we did tell you so.
Click to expand...

Yes you did. I really think though that the warnings should be toned down a bit and the occasional *sob* inserted into posts and indeed into scientific papers, so as not to offend r-j. Cos that's how science works. Apparently.

Meanwhile April was the 350th consecutive month with global temperatures above the 20th century average. Also the last year that had below average temperatures globally was 1976. The vast majority of climate scientists and every scientific society in the world say that this is not a cause for celebration.
 
greybeard said:
Yes you did. I really think though that the warnings should be toned down a bit and the occasional *sob* inserted into posts and indeed into scientific papers, so as not to offend r-j. Cos that's how science works. Apparently.

Meanwhile April was the 350th consecutive month with global temperatures above the 20th century average. Also the last year that had below average temperatures globally was 1976. The vast majority of climate scientists and every scientific society in the world say that this is not a cause for celebration.
Click to expand...

but they did bloody tell you so.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom