Projections
The previous list was in need of updating, I try to update such every couple of years. There are still a lot of more recent issues to add to this listing, but I'll spend some time on it this summer and see if I get everything into a more usable form.
Climate Projections
Climate Science, has a long and remarkable history of accurate and well-supported projections based upon the understandings that have been generated from the study and analysis of climate observations and the foundational chemical and physical interactions that together shape how the components of our planet’s surface (land, water and atmosphere) absorb, distribute and emit the impinging energy from the sun.
Listed below is a list of some of the more important, and subsequently verified, projections made by climate science researchers over the last century or two. While even the ancient Greeks speculated and discussed many climate impact issues (arguments about whether the clearing of forests might result in more, or less, rainfall, etc.,) , In order to look at the modern, mainstream climate science issues it helps to go back and look at the science discoveries and projects made regarding those discoveries over a more recent time frame (references at end):
1. In 1820s, Joseph Fourier, Performed some basic calculations of the size of the Earth, the distance from the sun, and the amount of energy the Earth was intercepting from the Sun. His calculations, however, indicated that the Earth should be much colder than it actually was.
Fourier predicted that some component of the atmosphere slowed the escape of solar radiation and provided the difference between what his calculations showed that the Earth should be, and what physical observations demonstrated was the actual temperature of the Earth (widely recognized as the first proposal of what is modernly referred to as “the greenhouse effect.” (
confirmation – in 1859-60, Tyndall experiments.)
2. In the early 1850s,
John Tyndall predicted that certain optically transparent gas components of the atmosphere were most responsible for the “greenhouse effect” of the atmosphere through the absorption and emission of invisible infrared radiations emitted by the ground after it had absorbed the energy from visible sunlight. (confirmation – 1959-60 detailed and careful experimentation demonstrated that some atmospheric gases, the most important of which are Water vapor (H2O), Carbon Dioxide (CO2), and Methane (CH4) indeed, absorbed IR and re-emitted IR thus
fulfilling the predicted role essential to the mechanism the “greenhouse effect”)
3. In 1896,
Svante Arrhenius correctly predicted that increases in fossil fuel emissions would cause the earth to warm. Arrhenius was interested in ice ages; based upon Tyndall’s findings, Arrhenius calculated that if the amount of CO2 in the air was halved, that the resultant lessened greenhouse effect would lower the overall temperature by 4-5˚C (ice age range temps.). Through discussions and various calculations worked upon by colleagues who looked at how much CO2 was being generated by the burning of coal to power what was then the Steam age. Arrhenius realized that within another century or two, at the rate coal use was increasing, that the human activity could easily cause a doubling of the then current atmospheric concentration of CO2, causing the temperature to rise by 4-5˚C. (
This is multipley confirmed by measurements that identify the amounts of fossil fuels burned, the isotopic ratios of the atmospheric CO2 and the amount of increasing warming measured in association with the levels of CO2)
4. In 1900,
Frank Very worked out the radiation balance, and
predicted the temperature, of the moon. (
confirmed by Pettit and Nicholson in 1930)
5. In 1907,
Robert Emden realized that a radiative-convective model could be applied to planets, and
made the prediction regarding the temperatures of various planets in the solar system (
Confirmed - Gerard Kuiper and others applied this to astronomical observations of planetary atmospheres)
6. In 1956,
Gilbert Plass correctly predicts a depletion of outgoing radiation in the 15 micron band, due to CO2 absorption. (
Confirmed by satellite measurement in the late seventies)
7. In 1959,
Burt Bolin and Erik Eriksson correctly predict the exponential increase in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere as a result of rising fossil fuel use. (
confirmed by direct measurement over last 50+ years)
8. During 1961-2,
Carl Sagan correctly predicts very thick greenhouse gases in the atmosphere of Venus. (The composition of Venus’s atmosphere was
confirmed by NASA’s Venus probes in 1967-70)
9. In 1967,
Suki Manabe and Dick Wetherald correctly predict that warming in the lower atmosphere would be accompanied by stratospheric cooling. (stratospheric cooling was
confirmed in 2011 by Gillett et al. -
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/assets/osgc/OSGC-000-000-003-400.pdf)
10. In 1975,
Suki Manabe and Dick Wetherald correctly predict that the surface warming would be much greater in the polar regions. (The polar amplification was measured, and confirmed
by Serreze et al in 2009 -
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/3/11/2009/tc-3-11-2009.pdf)
11. In 1981,
James Hansen correctly predicted that the potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climate zones. (This has already been observed in the first decade and a half of the 21st century and is
confirmed by
http://drought.unl.edu/MonitoringTools/USDroughtMonitor.aspx)
12. In 1981,
James Hansen correctly predicted that there would be an erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level beginning in the 21st century. (This has already been observed beginning in the first decade and a half of the 21st century and is
confirmed by direct observation and measurement -
http://www.eosnap.com/?s=wilkins+ice+shelf)
13. In 1981,
James Hansen correctly predicted that there would be an opening of the fabled Northwest Passage allowing free passage between N. Atlantic and Bering straight. (the beginnings of this are currently being observed and are
confirmed by:
http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/8/2/270,
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=3609686,
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/new...s-up-northwest-passage-to-commercial-shipping).
14. In 1989,
Ron Stouffer et. al. correctly predict that the land surface will warm more than the ocean surface. (this has been
confirmed by direct satellite measurement performed in the late 1990s)
These are just few of the more important predictions and projections made by Climate science which have already been well evidenced and confirmed, there are many which have not yet come to pass, or which have simply not yet been confirmed. Most current climate science projections deal with the 2050 – 2100 time frame and beyond so it shouldn’t be unusual to see them as yet, unfulfilled. What is troubling, is that many of the projections that have already come to pass were likewise not originally projected to come to pass until after the middle of the current century.
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