Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

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Meanwhile, back in the real world.
Well thank you Mr Buzzkill :rolleyes:.

"The national commodities forecaster has released a map showing vast areas of key agricultural production land are suffering the driest soil conditions in 100 years."
Here in the UK farmers have the opposite problem; waterlogged fields. So on average there's no problem, which is a relief. Now, who's going to go give the farmers the good news? I'm kinda busy myself ...
 
Thanks for the responses everyone. I think the main point this person was getting at is that since the observed temperature increase didn't match the projections, it is disingenuous of scientists to attempt to explain why their projections were off.

Maybe they need to demonstrate the sources, data and actual citations before the second part.
:)

Which is specious to say the least, OMFSM a model was revised!
 
Well thank you Mr Buzzkill :rolleyes:.
"The national commodities forecaster has released a map showing vast areas of key agricultural production land are suffering the driest soil conditions in 100 years."

Here in the UK farmers have the opposite problem; waterlogged fields. So on average there's no problem, which is a relief. Now, who's going to go give the farmers the good news? I'm kinda busy myself ...

The good news is that humus in the soil is helpful for all three problems. Waterlogged soils hold their structure better, dry soils retain more water, and more carbon in the soil means less in the air. They are actually all the same problem with the same general solution.
 
Well thank you Mr Buzzkill :rolleyes:.

Here in the UK farmers have the opposite problem; waterlogged fields. So on average there's no problem, which is a relief. Now, who's going to go give the farmers the good news? I'm kinda busy myself ...
Our Denier PM Tony Abbott it's handing out hundreds of millions in aid on the basis that this is a cyclical problem and global warming doesn't exist.
 
I wonder what he says to the head Billiton

World's largest mining company admits climate change is real - Mosaic

https://joinmosaic.com/.../worlds-largest-mining-company-admit...‎
by Rosana Francescato - in 75 Google+ circles
Dec 5, 2012 - World's largest mining company admits climate change is real ... Yet that's exactly what the Australian BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining ...

or Exxon....

ExxonMobil admits climate change is real (2) - Redding.com Blogs ...
blogs.redding.com/dcraig/archives/2013/09/exxonmobil-admi-1.html‎
ExxonMobil admits climate change is real (2). September 7, 2013 12:34 AM | 10

guess he's content to be as stupid as he actually appears...:rolleyes:
 
CapelDodger said:
It's a strange way of thought, but you're probably right. He wants the projections to be wrong because there's no AGW, which he really wants there not to be. What he doesn't want is for someone to explain why reality came out at the lower end of projections up to now; in fact he believes they have completely failed the reality check. A trusted source told him so, and anyway everybody knows it. Cognitive dissonance at work.

Deniers will always set impossible demands of accuracy while ignoring the only perfectly accurate model there is - the big bad analogue model we call home. Shame we can't make it run faster than real-time, but the tech guys say there are issues with that. Whatever, it's never been wrong yet.

Yes, this individual believes there is no AGW, and that it is just a scam to destroy the economy. I did direct him to the NASA and NOAA sites on the issue, and he responded with Anthony Watts. All the world's scientists who study the issue are morons, but some blogger has it all figured out.
 
The good news is that humus in the soil is helpful for all three problems. Waterlogged soils hold their structure better, dry soils retain more water, and more carbon in the soil means less in the air. They are actually all the same problem with the same general solution.
Let's be clear : nothing short of heavy machinery was going to keep my garden from getting waterlogged this winter. Not flooded, though, and I have raised beds for my veg so all is looking splendid out there.
 
Yes, this individual believes there is no AGW, and that it is just a scam to destroy the economy. I did direct him to the NASA and NOAA sites on the issue, and he responded with Anthony Watts. All the world's scientists who study the issue are morons, but some blogger has it all figured out.
Ah, conspiracy, the moral coward's way out. I'd rather suffer reality on my feet than avoid it on my knees. I'm sure you'd agree if you were equally pretentious ;).

Of course, reality is easier to handle to advantage if you can work out what it's up to, but that requires a certain amount of effort, mental ability and training. Rustling up all three is beyond a lot of people, I find, which must make reality pretty terrifying for them. Hence a desire to avoid it by any means possible, as long as possible. Provided it doesn't involve too much mental effort, of course, and Watts is just the guy to go to for that.
 
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Warm Winter Turns Iditarod Trail Into ‘Minefield’ With ‘No Snow’
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/04/3357501/warm-winter-iditarod-minefield-snow/

The Iditarod, the annual sled-dog race across 975 miles of Alaska, started in earnest on Sunday. While much of the local buzz is on whether the usual strong slate of Alaskan mushers can hold off the Norwegians, much of the attention has turned to how the race will be affected by the warm weather Alaska experienced earlier this year.

“It’s a minefield out there,” said former Yukon Quest champion Hugh Neff. “It’s the roughest I’ve ever seen,” said Jeff King, a 22-time race finisher. Aliy Zirkle reported “No snow. Zip. Zero. None.” Many suffered crashes, busted knees, bruises, and sprained ankles. Several are out of the race already.
Just weather, of course, but has an excellent dog photo. Also a map of NH temperature anomalies in this "brutal winter". (Well, technically, March 4th is Spring, but who's going to nitpick?)
 
Let's be clear : nothing short of heavy machinery was going to keep my garden from getting waterlogged this winter. Not flooded, though, and I have raised beds for my veg so all is looking splendid out there.
I understand that. But consider this. Last spring I had new transplants in the ground when we here in Oklahoma got hit by repeated heavy storms dumping a huge amount of water. In my test plot I had hundreds of seedlings that all had been in the ground less than 2 weeks. Due to those storms they then were flooded in standing water over 1 month. Not just a flood that comes and goes. Yes there was a flash flood, but it caused no erosion, but then standing water continuously for a month. So you see? I was not talking about preventing the ground from becoming waterlogged. I was talking about the characteristics of the soil when it gets too much water. I believe that the reason they were unaffected was the unique system I am developing. One of the key factors IMHO was the carbon and structure of the soil. (which are related)

A skeptic can challenge this. I understand this. It is just a test plot. No one else in the world is using this system as of yet. But the science behind why I even considered this trial is pretty robust. The fact that my hypothesis was tested so severely in the first year, and it succeeded beyond my expectations, has only increased my confidence that the system I am developing has a chance.

How does this relate to Global warming? ~40% of the planet's surface area is currently under agricultural management of some sort or another. Using the soil as a carbon sink may be the only mitigation proposal large enough to solve the problem of Global warming. But just saying that without proving it with trials is pointless. So I am doing my trials. We will see. Early results are good. Lots of added carbon to the soil, and side benefits of increased resilience to extreme weather events.
 
(Well, technically, March 4th is Spring, but who's going to nitpick?)

Well, traditionally, astronomically/astrologically, the vernal equinox (Spring) is still two weeks away! ;)

But the nymphs, they are a twitching (or is that twerking?).
 
I understand that. But consider this. Last spring I had new transplants in the ground when we here in Oklahoma got hit by repeated heavy storms dumping a huge amount of water. In my test plot I had hundreds of seedlings that all had been in the ground less than 2 weeks. Due to those storms they then were flooded in standing water over 1 month. Not just a flood that comes and goes. Yes there was a flash flood, but it caused no erosion, but then standing water continuously for a month. So you see? I was not talking about preventing the ground from becoming waterlogged. I was talking about the characteristics of the soil when it gets too much water. I believe that the reason they were unaffected was the unique system I am developing. One of the key factors IMHO was the carbon and structure of the soil. (which are related)

A skeptic can challenge this. I understand this. It is just a test plot. No one else in the world is using this system as of yet. But the science behind why I even considered this trial is pretty robust. The fact that my hypothesis was tested so severely in the first year, and it succeeded beyond my expectations, has only increased my confidence that the system I am developing has a chance.

How does this relate to Global warming? ~40% of the planet's surface area is currently under agricultural management of some sort or another. Using the soil as a carbon sink may be the only mitigation proposal large enough to solve the problem of Global warming. But just saying that without proving it with trials is pointless. So I am doing my trials. We will see. Early results are good. Lots of added carbon to the soil, and side benefits of increased resilience to extreme weather events.

We left efficiency in farming for volume of production a long time ago; gradually we're adding sustainability, efficiency and enhanced process/technology back into agriculture. The main issue has always been that nature has never been passive, it fights back.
 
We left efficiency in farming for volume of production a long time ago; gradually we're adding sustainability, efficiency and enhanced process/technology back into agriculture. The main issue has always been that nature has never been passive, it fights back.
My approach is to not fight back, but instead harness that tendency for benefit. My trials are only in year 2. I am not ready to publish or discuss details on a skeptic forum as of yet. I'll need much more repeatable data before I can do that. But I'll give you a very highly simplified explanation. Consider this. A weed is only a weed because we haven't discovered a purpose for it. Give it a purpose and instead of fighting it, you can use it to increase production. I know this sounds completely different than anything you ever learned before. For thousands of years the basic premise in agriculture was remove the weeds and replace them with crops. But nature seldom works that way. In nature a whole range of species live, to the benefit of all. Just to give you an idea of the concept. I'll be happy to post a link to another experimental farm promoting this new approach to agriculture that has developed a system for growing commodity grains to scale. This system sequesters large quantities of carbon in the soil, uses far less inputs, and actually over time as the soil improves and the skill of the farmer increases, out yields conventional agriculture.

Why pasture cropping is such a Big Deal

Now I am not a commodity grain grower. I grow vegetables. So this system is not directly applicable to what I am doing. But it certainly is part of a way to convert agriculture to a carbon sequestration machine, mitigating at least in part global warming. Especially if it is combined with Holistic managed grazing between grain crops.

What I am experimenting with is a way to scale up to full size commercial vegetable production using the same principles of actually encouraging perennials (called weeds to a conventional farmer) to coexist in the same fields at the same time.

The key is that ~20% of the products made from photosynthesis are extruded directly into the root zone by many plants (mostly perennial grasses and forbs) to feed the symbiotic microbiology. That carbon, being extruded deep in the soil, does not quickly return to the atmosphere like decaying vegetation on the surface does. That's why it is sequestered into deep geological time. But in order for this to happen, you need a growing plant. Applying herbicides, plowing or weeding destroys this effect. Also this effect is greatly reduced in annuals. Those perennials feeding the microbiology also results in self fertilization. (the symbiots repayment for the free food supply of sugars)

Basically what we are trying to do is artificially create an ecological cascade in reverse. In other words, where conventional agriculture causes a negative ecological cascade, we are attempting to use the effect to heal the land instead, a positive ecological cascade. The concept is so new, there really isn't a good term for it. Biomimicry, Permaculture, carbon farming or Ecoagriculture would be the closest terms applicable. I personally always considered it a form of "organic" agriculture, since "organic" describes carbon compounds created from living things. Compounds that when reduced create humus in the soil. But the term "organic" seems to have been corrupted over the years by unscrupulous marketers and certification boards. So call it whatever you want.
 
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