Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

[Reality Check]

IThat entire thing was a fiasco of people trying to say there was no theory, all kinds of ridiculous claims.

The specific fiasco in that post is a mistake by you, r-j .
My statement was nothing to do with the current stuff about your claim. It is about the past semantic argument about a ""Theory of Global Warming" that you showed did not exist

Everyone notes that I stated the fact in the real world: there is no such thing as your "Theory of Global Warming" as you have actually shown with your searches.
Thus it would be insane to expect any peer reviewed science that explains this imaginary theory.

There is plenty of peer reviewed science that contains the words theory, global and warming though.

And the actual claim that you cite Cohen et. al. as evidence for is:

This current brutal winter, as well as many of the past winters, was not expected by the global warming, nor is it a prediction of AGW that winters would become much colder.

The first part is just wrong - no climate model predicts weather such as specific winters! They predict trends over decades.
Citing Cohen et. al. is wrong because it does not state that all winters are warming:

The most up to date consensus from global climate models predicts warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes to middle latitudes during boreal winter.

Nor does it state that all global climate models predict warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes to middle latitudes during boreal winter, as you later "100% wrong" comments imply.
There is at least one global climate model that predicts cooling NH winters.

 

[CapelDodger]

... I did not intend to discount or dismiss any of your discussions on this issue.

I'm a Brit, we know about weather . It's a basic survival skill.

 

[macdoc]

growing gills seems a smart evo move just now

 

[CapelDodger]

The large scale cooling of the the boreal winters ...

There is no large-scale cooling of boreal winters. Somebody would have noticed. You are, I think, inflating "widespread" to "large-scale", which is at least a step back from inflating it to the whole northern hemisphere.

... with much more snow, was unexpected.

More snow was expected. As I pointed out, AGW deniers used to point that out twenty years ago as a reason why the Greenland ice-cap would expand, not shrink. You, with a different purpose in mind (denigrating models and climate science in general, apparently) now claim that nobody knew. You didn't know, I'm sure, but many people did.

Climate models predict the most warming in winter, in the high latitudes ...

Which, in general, is what's happening.

... as well as reduced snow.

See above. Increased snowfall was predicted without recourse to models; it's basic. Warmer water surfaces and warmer air means more water vapour throughput, meaning more precipitation, be it liquid or frozen.

The cooling trend is evident going back decades.

No it isn't. It isn't even a thing.

It's not that the winters (in large areas of the NH) just seem worse, they are getting worse.

Worse in what way? Wetter? Drier? Colder? Warmer? Warmer isn't always better if it means, for instance, that pests can overwinter.

Assuming you mean colder, no, they're not. They're getting warmer.

This is obvious at this point, and it can't be explained away as "natural variation" or an anomaly now and then.

It is obviously what you believe but it's not actually a thing.

This is the exact same thing I stated last year, during the extreme winter that was going on then.

Nobody ever suggested you were capable of learning anything. You were as wrong then as you are now.

That yet another extreme and record cold winter ...

Record? What record is this? Even in the Eastern US there have been colder winters than this.

... is happening in the US, right now, with a lot of snow, that is just ironic. And very very funny, from a scientific POV

I really don't know what to say to that.

The human suffering is anything but funny at this point

Human suffering? A tad hyperbolic, don't you think? Just how cold is it right now? Is home heating getting overwhelmed? Out here the Ukrainian story has pushed anything like that off the news; it looks quite warm in the Crimea. Of course it's not that far from Sochi so that's no great surprise.

Anyway, good luck with the human suffering. That stuff can be a bitch.

 

[lomiller]

The name of the paper includes these words;
INCREASING SNOW COVER AND WIDESPREAD BOREAL COOLING

I can see how you could be confused about the subject of the paper.

Did you actually read the paper? Perhaps you should read it before continuing.


As multiple people have told you since you first referenced it, it does not support your claims you are making.

 

[macdoc]

Done to death - move on.
It's like talking to a brick....

I guess the hummingbirds did not get r-j memo re NH winter cooling.

Study: Hummingbirds migrating earlier in spring
Feb 18, 2013 by Bruce Smith
(AP)—Ruby-throated hummingbirds are migrating to North America weeks earlier than in decades past, and research indicates that higher temperatures in their winter habitat may be the reason.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-02-hummingbirds-migrating-earlier.html#jCp

nor did the godwit youngsters...

The team went on to investigate what could be causing the overall arrival time of godwits to creep forward.
"Because we have been following the same birds for so many years, we know the exact ages of many of them.
"We found that birds hatched in the late 1990s arrived in May, but those hatched in more recent years are tending to arrive in April. So the arrival dates are advancing because the new youngsters are migrating earlier.

"Climate change is likely to be driving this change because godwits nest earlier in warmer years, and birds that hatch earlier will have more time to gain the body condition needed for migration and to find good places to spend the winter, which can help them to return early to Iceland when they come back to breed."

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-11-reveals-bird-migration.html#jCp

and those foolish indigenous Canadians.....what would they know

Warm winter, no ice roads shows new roads needed: chief


The Canadian Press

Published Tuesday, January 3, 2012 4:47PM EST
WINNIPEG - One of Manitoba's top aboriginal leaders says climate change is threatening crucial ice roads, driving up prices in northern native communities and underlining the need for the federal government to build more permanent highways.
Grand Chief David Harper, who represents the province's northern First Nations, says unseasonably warm weather this winter has meant ice roads aren't even close to being constructed. That means another year in which supplies such as groceries, fuel and construction materials are scarce and expensive in remote communities.
Aboriginal elders have predicted a warmer winter this year with a late cold snap that is likely to come too late to be of much use, Harper said Tuesday.

"We've got to prepare for the worst. It's going to be a small window of opportunity."
The chance to build and use ice roads -- which help connect about two dozen fly-in aboriginal communities to the south -- has been shrinking. Aboriginals and environmentalists say Manitoba's winter season is growing shorter. Ice roads across frozen ground, lakes and rivers that have typically been open for 60 days are now sometimes only usable for about 20.
The winter transportation system is vital. The province estimates some 2,500 shipments of staple items are transported each year by trucks over 2,200 kilometres of icy road instead of being flown in at great expense.
In 2010, some aboriginal chiefs declared a state of emergency as warm weather turned their winter roads into mucky quagmires, stranding some truckers and causing fuel shortages.

It's clear dozens of northern communities can't rely on ice roads any more and the federal government must help construct more permanent routes, Harper said. He and other aboriginal leaders intend to raise the issue with Prime Minister Stephen Harper at a First Nations summit later this month.
"All-weather roads into the northern region have to be taken quite seriously from now on," Harper said. "Saskatchewan did it. Quebec did it. We've got to speed up the process."

Aboriginal communities have been raising the alarm about melting winter roads for several years.
A 2006 study by the Centre for Indigenous Environmental Resources found the shortened winter has a snowball effect. The study said weak ice on lakes makes it harder to trap and fish, while healthy groceries are in shorter supply when fewer trucks make it up from the south. That can lead to an increase in chronic health problems such as diabetes.

Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/warm-winter-no-ice-roads-shows-new-roads-needed-chief-1.748146#ixzz2usdQtMSQ

Please r-j....write to them ....tell them not to worry it's all getting colder, the kids won't starve....

 

[Belz...]

Of course, I always replicate or at least fact check any science paper that is about public knowledge.

You at least replicate OR fact-check... that wasn't my question: did you replicate their results and, if so, how ?

I ask because so far you haven't shown any working knowledge of this topic whatsoever.

 

[Belz...]

The name of the paper includes these words;
INCREASING SNOW COVER AND WIDESPREAD BOREAL COOLING

I can see how you could be confused about the subject of the paper.

Did you read beyond the title ?

 

[macdoc]

"Persistently low temperatures across the Great Lakes region are responsible for the increased areal coverage of the ice," Kurtz said. "Low temperatures are also the dominant mechanism for thickening the ice, while secondary factors like clouds, snow, and wind also play a role."

The freeze this year has local implications, including possible changes to snowfall amounts in the Great Lakes area, explained Walt Meier, also a cryospheric scientist at NASA Goddard. When the lakes are primarily open water, cold air picks up moisture from the relatively warm and moist lake water, often resulting in lake effect snow on the lee side of the lakes, on the eastern and southern shores. When the lakes freeze, the lake effect generally shuts down. "Although this year, they're still picking up a fair amount of snow," Meier said.

Lake levels could also see an impact by summer, as winter ice cover generally reduces the amount of water available to evaporate during winter months. If that turns out to be the case, it would be "good news for local water supplies, as well as for shipping and recreational use," Meier said.
It remains to be seen when the Great Lakes will once again freeze to the extent reached in 2014, or at least enough to allow adventurers to reach the ice caves at Lake Superior's Apostle Islands National Lakeshore by foot.

A 2012 study in the Journal of Climate by scientists at NOAA's Great Lakes lab, which included data from MODIS, found that winter season ice cover on Lake Superior has decreased 79 percent from 1973 to 2010.

The study also showed that ice cover on the lakes is highly variable and difficult to predict.
The harsh season this year "is a reminder that winters are variable and that weather can always throw an outlier our way," said Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist and climate modeler at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140228160624.htm

now where was that NH colder winter trend......or does less ice = a colder inter in the whacked physics of your worldview.

This article nicely demonstrates both of your fallacies.
About NH winter trends
and the criteria for more snow.

But you could argue with Gavin...here's his email.....tell him he's wrong.
[email protected]

 

[r-j]

Thirty year trend for the great lakes, for January, shows a cooling trend. This is from GISS no less.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

The NCDC data also confirms this.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

 

[r-j]

FYI, with a little effort you can use
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

and

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/ to see for yourselves why I know with no doubt that Cohen et al are right when they talk about the widespread cooling trend.

The snow data was linked to upthread, and both those links have already been posted in the thread.

 

[Alphaba]

Here's a paper more recent than Cohen et al. 2012, which is addressing the same question:

Juan C. Jiménez-Muñoz, José A. Sobrino & Cristian Mattar (July 2013). "Has the Northern Hemisphere been warming or cooling during the boreal winter of the last few decades?" Global and Planetary Change, vol. 106, p. 31–38 (link).

Fair use quotes:

Recent winter episodes of extreme cold and snow in the NH (e.g. winter 2010) are examples of anomalous cooling. In fact in a recent paper, Cohen et al. (2012) reported a widespread boreal winter cooling during the last two decades (1988–2010), contrary to the warming trend reported in Screen and Simmonds (2010) during almost the same period (1989–2008).

Due to these discrepancies in the sign of the trend for wintertime surface temperature anomalies, we found it convenient to report trends when using a dataset and/or study period different from the ones used in the other works. Hence, in this paper we analyze wintertime trends on average surface temperatures over the mid- to high-latitudes (30N–90N) of the NH using different climatic datasets during the period 1980–2012, as well as the spatial patterns of the trends at different spatial resolutions.
[...]

Fig. 1. The significance level (p-level) of trends in near-surface air temperature anomalies using [...] NCEP-1 and ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period 1980–2012 [...] in the winter (DJF) season. The sign of the p-level indicates warming (+) or cooling (−). Only pixels with p-level < 0.1 (confidence level of 90%) are displayed. [Edit: of 4, the two last, most complete sets are shown.]

The spatial pattern of wintertime trends in air temperature using the different reanalysis datasets for the last three decades is presented in Fig. 1. The figure displays the level of significance (p-level) instead of the slope in order to detect a warming or cooling trend independently of the warming or cooling rate, and only pixels with p-level < 0.1 are displayed. All the datasets provide similar spatial patterns for the trends. Warming over the Arctic (mainly over Greenland and around the Hudson Bay) is significant as observed in the NCEP-1 and ERA-int datasets (CRUTEM4 and GHCN do not provide valid data over these regions). Over the western part of the NH (mainly the USA and Canada, excluding the Arctic region) almost a neutral trend is observed. A neutral trend is also observed in winter over the eastern part of the NH.

Neutral trend means that results were not statistically significant at least at a confidence level of 90%. Analysis of winter trends over particular regions yielded significant warming only at high latitudes (60N–90N) and over Greenland, and also over the region 30N–90N when using CRUTEM4 and ERA-Int datasets.

 

[lomiller]

FYI, with a little effort you can use
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

and

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/ to see for yourselves why I know with no doubt that Cohen et al are right when they talk about the widespread cooling trend.

The snow data was linked to upthread, and both those links have already been posted in the thread.

Once again even your own links say the opposite of what you claim. There is no widespread winter cooling in the NH

Also note. Once again it’s evident you haven’t actually read the Cohan paper. It’s not claiming there is cooling it says that their model results predict/explain regional cooling resulting from increased snow cover.

Whether this region cooling actually exists is not the subject of this paper, and it’s somewhat controversial in that these regional trends may just be natural internal variation in the system. The paper makes absolutely clear that such cases of regional cooling are in the context of a warming planet.

I explained this to you many pages back, why do you continue to reference a paper you clearly do not understand?

 

[riptor]

Failed predictions disprove AGW?

I know there has been some discussion recently on how to handle global warming threads, and I did do a search but couldn't really find what I was looking for. Some of the threads on the subject are huge.

An argument against AGW that I've been encountering a good deal lately is that since scientists and organizations that study climate change have made predictions that were wrong in the past, that this somehow disproves AGW. Specifically, since the warming hasn't increased as much as previously predicted this means that any further attempts by the science community to investigate why the predictions didn't happen as previously thought, are nothing more than excuses to bolster a failed theory. In one online discussion one person listed such "excuses", which included low solar activity, aerosols, stratospheric water vapor, wind, and others.

So the question is when does it become just making excuses for a failed theory?

 

[arthwollipot]

Failed predictions can never disprove anything. All they can disprove is your claim to be able to predict the future reliably.

 

[Red Baron Farms]

So the question is when does it become just making excuses for a failed theory?

When? When it actually fails, which it hasn't. AGW is both real and measurable. Just because predictions are slightly off, some too high and some too low, doesn't mean it isn't happening.

An analogy showing that failed logic would be this: Let's say I predict the last frost date for my region is April 15th based in the best information available. And the last frost date actually turns out to be April 16th. Yes I am "wrong", but that doesn't mean that spring doesn't bring warming of temperatures, or that I should ignore weather predictions all together. All it means is that the prediction was slightly off. As a farmer, I would be exceedingly foolish to ignore weather predictions, even though they are not precise enough to be exact yet.

In a similar way it would be just as foolish for people to ignore AGW predictions that are slightly off, just because they are not exact yet.

 

[macdoc]

that since scientists and organizations that study climate change have made predictions that were wrong in the past,

for instance??

this is in the wrong thread and will be moved but this one was accurate given the time

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/04/evaluating-a-1981-temperature-projection/

 

[CapelDodger]

So the question is when does it become just making excuses for a failed theory?

The theory that an enhanced greenhouse effect will warm the planet doesn't stand or fall by the accuracy of short-term projections of surface temperatures. The fact is that warming has happened very much in line with predictions (there is no Pause, and never was). Whether it's a tenth of a degree per decade one way or the other, it's happening.

Projections cannot include real future events, obviously, so they can only assume average behaviour. After the events, such as La Ninas and climate-impacting eruptions, it's possible to investigate their effects.

This argument you're hearing depends on the fact that projections cannot contain future events, so in the actual future, with its specific set of events, there will be discrepancies - unless that particular future happens to be very average .

If we consider denier predictions over the decades, it started with "there will be no warming". So much for that, but anabashed they solder on. "It's a cycle and about to get cooler". That was about 2000. "We've entered a long-term cooling phase" by 2004. "There's an Ice Age coming" at various points, usually whenduring a cold snap in the US.

I know which side's well ahead on points. The side that doesn't have Monckton as its public face.

 

[Trakar]

Here's a paper more recent than Cohen et al. 2012, which is addressing the same question:

Juan C. Jiménez-Muñoz, José A. Sobrino & Cristian Mattar (July 2013). "Has the Northern Hemisphere been warming or cooling during the boreal winter of the last few decades?" Global and Planetary Change, vol. 106, p. 31–38 (link).

Fair use quotes:

Interesting work, I've seen these cited in some of the papers I've been going through lately but haven't had the opportunity to read them myself yet, thank-you for mentioning them and reminding me to look them up!

 

[Trakar]

growing gills seems a smart evo move just now

I don't know, warm, acidic waters probably don't hold much oxy.