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Global Warming Consensus?

This article discusses heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=17181"]several more surveys, including the 928 article review which has already been discussed on this forum.

Peiser's link:
staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/Oreskes-abstracts.htm

This one is interesting. No doubt links to "Big Oil" will completely nullify the survey. However sucking at the teets of the government sow has no possibility of creating a welfare state of global warming scientists and universities now does it?
downloads.heartland.org/20732.pdf

'Science' also published articles on global cooling in the 1970's. It would be wise not to place journals and Societies on pedestals as if they are infallible and immune to politics. The Patent office has lots of nice inventions that don't work too. "Mistakes were made".

Are peer reviewed articles on coming global cooling considered legitimate research? They do exist.
 
Denialist Incest

Gee, was that the Heartland Institute I saw cited at the bottom of that link you titled, "The Myth of Scientific Consensus?" But this gets better. Get the children out of the room; this here is about incest.

Let's follow this through, shall we? If you're going to make me wade through this, believe me, I'm going to make you eat it.

Let's start with this Heartland thing. Hey, I noticed something: not one single direct cite by title and named author of one paper published in any peer-reviewed journal. Not ONE. You know why? Because if they cite someone by name, or a paper by title and publication, THEY'LL GET SUED FOR SLANDER, and they know it.

So basically this is lies, because if they put someone's name on it they'll get sued.

Now let's follow this incest trail thing, shall we? Following that link at the bottom of "The Myth of Scientific Consensus" leads us to an article that it is citing, right? Right? Well, actually, no, not exactly. Nor is it precisely stated where exactly what particular claims are made. That's not a reference, it's a lie, plain and simple, right there in your face. They'd like you to THINK there's a reference, but guess what you find if you look at those links?

Scientific articles published in peer-reviewed journals, right? Right?

Wrong. Not ONE. The closest they come, here, is a reference to this, where the abstract reads, "The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum, ~55 million years ago, was a brief period of widespread, extreme climatic warming, that was associated with massive atmospheric greenhouse gas input. Although aspects of the resulting environmental changes are well documented at low latitudes, no data were available to quantify simultaneous changes in the Arctic region. Here we identify the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum in a marine sedimentary sequence obtained during the Arctic Coring Expedition. We show that sea surface temperatures near the North Pole increased from ~18 °C to over 23 °C during this event. Such warm values imply the absence of ice and thus exclude the influence of ice-albedo feedbacks on this Arctic warming." Emphasis mine.

Yet, Heartland claims: "The scientists report extensive ice-rafted sedimentary debris was deposited in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea roughly 30 to 38 million years ago. Evidence indicates the sediment was carried by glacial ice rather than sea ice, which in turn indicates glaciers existed on Greenland 'about 20 million years earlier than previously documented, at a time when temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were substantially higher' than they are today." Emphasis again mine.

One of these has to be correct, and the other false; that's a difference of like 20 million years or so. So, let's see which, shall we? :D

Let's start with the dating of the PETM. Googling it up, it seems it was 58-54 MYA.

Excuse me? I thought the scientists were studying "extensive ice-rafted sedimentary debris... deposited in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea roughly 30 to 38 million years ago." What precisely does this have to do with the PETM 15-20 million years earlier? To put this into perspective, it's warmer now than it's been since before the start of the current ice age- and 10,000 years ago we were in the midst of the Wurm (or Wisconsin, choose your continent) glaciation, only the latest of the glaciations of this ice age. What the hell does what was happening 20 million years later (that's 200 times as long a period) have to do with anything?

See, here's the problem: how many faux pas can you dig up from Nature or Science? Not many. But every single time I go digging into this stuff on Heartland, or the National Center for Public Policy Research, I find tripe like this.

But I'm not done. Let's make sure we find the incest, shall we?

Here we go. Here's another one. And in case you didn't notice, that one also involves these guys, who get money from a bunch of organizations that you're going to get very familiar with in just a few short sentences, according to these guys. Now, if we go check out the Heartland Institute, we get this list. In the first ten donors, listed by time of donation, how many of the same ones do you find in both? But we're not done yet. How about these guys? Now it's gonna get juicy. I mean, juicy. Here we go. Tom Delay. Jack Abramoff. Whoopsie. And let's not forget to check their donors, too.

Oh, and let's not forget this reference, right? Right? That's GOTTA be the killer one, right? I mean, the other one goes over to this Heartland Institute, and the threads just come back to here, right? So this just HAS to be different.

Oops. They've just referenced THEMSELVES AS THE SOURCE, like it's from A DIFFERENT SITE OR SOURCE OR SOMETHING. Hell, this ain't even incest, it's masturbation!

Now, we've got a list of about ten or fifteen organizations to follow around and see what they're putting money into (along with Tom Delay and Jack Abramoff). I guarantee you, that is a google that will open your eyes. You won't have any questions about this any more.

The money all comes from a small, elite group of foundations that are funding neocon propaganda. You can read about this here. And if that don't get it across, then you're hopeless.

Tell me, do I need to take this further? Or are you beginning to get the idea here?
 
Actually this is an interesting question. Like many other questions asked on this forum, there are serious efforts to spin into another direction where sacrcasm and derision rule. I fall prey to that sometimes.

Yes, here is a survey. Quoting from it -
A substantial number of environmental scientists and practitioners disagree with the assertion that human activity is causing or imminently will cause substantial global warming, a November 2006 survey found.
Conducted by the nonpartisan National Registry of Environmental Professionals (NREP), the survey asked 793 environmental scientists and environmental practitioners about human effects on climate variance.
The survey results contradict assertions by environmental activist groups that "the debate is over" and that all or virtually all scientists agree humans are causing a dramatic and harmful change in the Earth's climate.


You are not quoting from the survey and you are not linking to a site that shows all of the answers to the questions posed.

Here is the survey.

http://www.nrep.org/globsurv.htm

The respondants seem to me to be people who work in the environmental industry but not scientists researching global warming.

In fact the cherry picking of the results by the Heartland Institute makes me doubt their desire to honestly report the survey.

As an exercise just compare the two sources and if you don't see the spin, I think you never will.
 
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Certified Indoor Air Quality Manager (CIAQM)

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmBWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

"Indoor climate scientist" on Heartland, no doubt. You gotta love this crap. Thanks for that, fsol, I needed a good laugh.
 
mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmBWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

"Indoor climate scientist" on Heartland, no doubt. You gotta love this crap. Thanks for that, fsol, I needed a good laugh.

That's typically an engineer (4 year degree) or architect with a required ten years experience, for that certification. I was looking for surveys of engineers and scientists, that qualifies.

Believe me, Schneib, you are not going to hurt MY FEELINGS by criticizing these surveys. I can only now assume that these nasty neocons actually have a smart guy or two who know how to manipulate google page rankings. No problem, I'll drill on down to the 6th -12th group of Google references.

Repeating again: There is no effort on my part to find denial pro or con, just SURVEYS. Surveys will never show something like "a total consensus" such as Gore and the IPCC promulgate for political purposes. Ain't gonna happen.

With 46 Billion dollars spent so far trying to figure GW out, we ought to have some surveys of opinions out there somewhere that WERE NOT FUNDED BY THOSE NASTY NEOCONS, right?
 
That's typically an engineer (4 year degree) or architect with a required ten years experience, for that certification. I was looking for surveys of engineers and scientists, that qualifies.

I don't see anything wrong with that survey. There is something wrong with the Heartland Institute summary and presentation of it.
 
I thought global warming was caused by all those greedy cattle herders who let their cows bowl gasses escape into the atmosphere.

You want real action; I say we push congress to pass a law requiring scrubbers on all cattle and pig asses country wide!
 
Gee, was that the Heartland Institute I saw cited at the bottom of that link you titled, "The Myth of Scientific Consensus?" But this gets better. Get the children out of the room; this here is about incest.

Let's follow this through, shall we? If you're going to make me wade through this, believe me, I'm going to make you eat it.



Tell me, do I need to take this further? Or are you beginning to get the idea here?

It would have been nice had you addressed the issue at hand, that being the 928 "no opposition to global warming" claim you posted. No comment at all?

Your arguments would be laughed off the stage of any real debate with rules. You just spent x hours proving it is possible to fill a page with logical fallacies and meaningless dribble without defending the original argument. It couldn’t have been written better in Rudé právo.

Personally, I’m more concerned about the substance of the material.

However silly, it appears your intention is to use a statistical analysis tool referred to as 'social networking' as demonstrated in the document below.
.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/StupakResponse.pdf
 
I don't see anything wrong with that survey. There is something wrong with the Heartland Institute summary and presentation of it.

:D Maybe I'll agree with you when I read the surveys. Haven't had time to do that because I've been too occupied trying to find them. That's about complete now.

Looks like I need to split it into 2 lists (1) the actual surveys (2) interpretation and spin on them.
 
:D Maybe I'll agree with you when I read the surveys. Haven't had time to do that because I've been too occupied trying to find them. That's about complete now.

Looks like I need to split it into 2 lists (1) the actual surveys (2) interpretation and spin on them.

:)

Well, I have to admit I am fairly solidly on the AGW is real side of the fence. But when faced with something contradictory to my cosy worldview I go and try and track down the source to see what I can make of it . As it was with the paper from CO2Science, as it is with that survey. If there is something out there ready to change my mind I haven't found it yet, but I am willing to go look for it if pointed in the right direction. It seems to be about the only way to have a chance of cutting through the politics from some of the sites linked.
 
I've tried to get into reasonable discussion on AGW on several sites, including realclimate.org. I was genuinely interested in finding out some facts.

All I got was "Look, there's a consensus over this, OK?". When I wasn't being harangued as if I'd declared an interest in eating babies, that is.

I asked about the significance of the "anomalous" balloon and satellite readings. Both wrong, for different readings. With the right fiddle factor, you get the "right answers, OK?. There's a consensus on this.

What about the evidence that all the other planets are heating up? Oh, tat's nothing to do with what's happening here. Don't you get it? THERE'S A SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS!

Since when does science work by some kind of committee vote?
I just want some sober, rational discourse on climate change. I expect to be educated, not lectured to like a wayward kid or mock-threatened with physical violence.

Why, oh why do reasonable questions about AGW get slapped down with innuendo about the poster's sanity or intelligence? Can't a thread like this not proceed without the bloody word "consensus" and angry retorts?
 
I have not tried to find surveys that support one side or the other, just "the surveys".
Anyone who follows your links will see that this statement is by and large nonsense.

A. This is an incredibly stupid survey which shows how really stupid some really smart people can be.
Doesn't display (with firefox).

This is not a survey. This page consists solely of unconfirmable declarations by a free market advocacy group.
C. Oriented toward getting a variety of opinions and levels of knowledge Human dimensions of climate change: Results of a survey of scientists and engineers
At last, something that appears to have substance. Except that it's 18 years old.

D. In a new book he co-authored with Dennis Avery ... Singer points out that hundreds of climate scientists have argued against what passes for a consensus view on the subject.
Of course this "survey" consists of one person's unsupported declaration.

E. Gore was wrong in 1992 when he wrote that 98 percent of scientists agreed with him on global warming. A 1992 survey found that a mere 17 percent of members of the American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society believed in greenhouse-gas climate change.
This is an op-ed piece that provides no almost detail about the survey. Except that it was conducted 17 years ago.

F. Perspectives of Climate Scientists on Global Climate Change, 1995-1998.
This page indicates that a survey took place but says nothing about the results. I clicked about the site and found some suspect material, however I'll withhold comment until you link to something more substantial than "there is a survey".

More unconfirmable declarations from a free market advocacy group. What is this, argumentum ad Kevin Baconum?
 
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Why, oh why do reasonable questions about AGW get slapped down with innuendo about the poster's sanity or intelligence? Can't a thread like this not proceed without the bloody word "consensus" and angry retorts?

*Looks up at the thread title*

*Looks at Big Als post*

Are you sure you are in the right thread Al?

:covereyes
 
mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmBWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

"Indoor climate scientist" on Heartland, no doubt. You gotta love this crap. Thanks for that, fsol, I needed a good laugh.

Whereas, of course, Al Gore is much better qualified to pass judgement. Why not attack the message, rather than the messenger? What's wrong with these people's scientific understanding? Somebody tell me!
 
*Looks up at the thread title*

*Looks at Big Als post*

Are you sure you are in the right thread Al?

:covereyes

I'm just annoyed by the fact that "consensus" seems to be the be-all-and-end-all of climate change science. Who cares about the consensus? What about the science?
 
BTW, I'm sorry if I'm losing it a bit. I held off posting in this thread as long as I could bear!
 
Anyone who follows your links will see that this statement is by and large nonsense.

Doesn't display (with firefox).
Yawn.
Nonsense? Do your own google search, varoche. Reply with your results.

Show that I've missed anything that is roughly "surveys on global warming (limited to) scientists and/or engineers". Otherwise, reply back that I did exactly what I said I was going to do.

Here is the link to the survey I noted as seeming to show how incredibly stupid some really smart people are

http://timlambert.org/2005/05/bray/

it is linked to in fsol's post also
 

Thank you! That's much better. An interesting blog, although not much in the way of comment there. However, some of the links raised more questions in my mind.

For example, the assertion that GW will cause greater intensity of hurricanes. It was my understanding that

a) Hurricanes are driven by the temperature gradient between the poles and the equator.
b) Global warming should heat the poles faster than the equator, decreasing the temperature gradient.

If we're talking about polar ice melting at an unprecedented rate, a 1.4 degree rise would not nearly be enough to melt it. Therefore, if true, the temperature is ramping up at the poles by a much greater amount than in the more temperate zones. Surely that means hurricanes should become less intense?

I read the article about linking levels of CO2 to temperature rises. I have read in several places that, historically, CO2 has lagged temperature rise by several centuries. Is this a lie or an erroneous reading of the data.

BTW, I am not guilty of the horrendous crime of "GW denial". Yup, it's getting warmer, sure enough. However, I would like a civilised and rational debate about the science offered by the actual deniers. I know some is utter garbage (such as volcanoes producing more CO2 than humans). I'd just like to see it all ratinally dissected and demolished before I put my X in the AGW box.
 

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