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Global Warming Consensus?

No need to apologize, I just wanted to make sure a minor bout of pilot error wasn't fueling a deeper disagreement between posters.

I am, though, somewhat confused by your citation choices. How carefully have you examined them? Not trying to be a jerk here, so please don't get me wrong (I'm interested in the involved sciences and their methodologies, not political spiel, policy formulation, or ill-tempered confrontations) -- I just don't understand why you find seemingly fringe claims more compelling than, say, those of mainstream science, such as NOAA, NAS, EPA, NASA, et al.

Would you be willing to help me better understand your position?

It is a simple matter, to actually look to see what has been asked of individuals. Just a google search , but google ranks by link thrus. If what comes up may be said to be fringe claims, then within the limits of that search algorithm and my grammar choice, that is "what is".

Now let us return to the issue.

If for example, surveys existed which showed, generally, that individual scientists agreed with the IPCC view, that would give it a great deal of credibility. Or visa versa.

In fact it appears that for a $46B industry, few surveys of opinion of individuals exist.
 
Damn. I cannot find a single survey of scientists stating that they believe in quantum mechanics. I guess there must not be a consensus.

IXP

Your analogy is crap.

In one hand we have

A) An often repeated claim of a 'consensus among scientists' for the purpose of effecting widespread social and economic changes to the policies of every nation on earth. (psst: "summary for policy makers")

..and in the other hand we have..

B) A well established and tested theory which also happens to be the most successful scientific theory mankind has so far come up with.

Clearly these two hands are holding entirely different things.

Now, if your analogy referenced a claim of a consensus on quantum mechanics for the purposes of effecting changes to the policies of governments, then you might have something.

But your analogy doesnt do that. It is crap.
 
Plenty of evidence. That's why you're having to cling to a shrinking minority. Perhaps you're equating "evidence" with "proof"? It's a common mistake.

Actualy, I equate evidence with evidence.

You have had the opportunity to present evidence, for the claimed consensus among scientists, in this thread.

You havent done that. Infact, nobody has done it.

You still have a chance...
 
It is a simple matter, to actually look to see what has been asked of individuals. Just a google search , but google ranks by link thrus. If what comes up may be said to be fringe claims, then within the limits of that search algorithm and my grammar choice, that is "what is".

Could I ask a favor? Would you be willing to answer direct questions with direct answers? It's indeed possible that I'm dense, but you've lost me.
 
Plenty of evidence. That's why you're having to cling to a shrinking minority. Perhaps you're equating "evidence" with "proof"? It's a common mistake.

I think climate deniers are like creationists...no evidence will ever be enough.

What do they imagine the world and scientists and IPCC would look like if the majority of scientists around the world who study this issue were truly alarmed.

What do they imagine a consensus of scientists is? Evolution is a fact. But creationists will always pretend there is a controversy as long as they can find one person with a semi scientific credential who has doubts about it. They always have such a different standard of proof for readily verifiable data and the stuff they WANT to believe. No amount of data is convincing if it goes against their politics or cherished notions and the vaguest hint of any doubt is elevated to "truth" status if the message aligns with their political, financial, or ignoramus interests. Unbelievable.

Let's see... suppose you have cancer--do you listen to the majority of doctors who suggest treatment and understand the situation and the imperative of doing something rather than nothing...or do you listen to the "positive thinking" guru down the road because you like the message better? That is the situation we are in regarding global warming. We can't predict the future, but we can say that the longer we don't do anything, the worse and sooner the consequences will befall us--in fact, they already are. Muddying up facts with a "teach the controversy" notion doesn't serve your fellow inhabitants very well. Global warming deniers are on par with creationist obfuscationists in my book. -- Bad mouthers of science and promoters of spin.

Until they say what evidence they would find acceptable, I think it's safe to say they are stuck in their "faith".
 
Actualy, I equate evidence with evidence.

You have had the opportunity to present evidence, for the claimed consensus among scientists, in this thread.

You havent done that. Infact, nobody has done it.

You still have a chance...

You had the opportunity to back your claim in the other thread that the IPCC had been caught in a lie in that thread. You don't seem to have done that. The thread is still there...
 
Big Al, speaking of cheapshots... I clearly did not deny that this organization exists. My point was that NREP is an organization that has few, if any, climatologists/meteorologists/oceanographers in it. It appears to be an organization for people who work in pollution/toxic waste monitoring/mitigation. Therefore, to imply that survey was a survey of scientists working in the climate field, or even of people who have any special knowledge of climate issues, is dishonest.

Yeah, sorry, Telly. I did the "cheap shot" there just in an attempt at a witty, intelligent counterpoint to earlier "messenger-shooting" posts, but in restrospect it was just peevish and asinine. My apologies. I do agree that ther's no evidence whatsoever that anyone who voted on that survey was a climate scientist.
 
What do they imagine the world and scientists and IPCC would look like if the majority of scientists around the world who study this issue were truly alarmed.

You mean the majority isnt truely alarmed?

What do they imagine a consensus of scientists is?

Perhaps that the majority of them agree? ..that such agreement would even be demonstratable?

They always have such a different standard of proof for readily verifiable data and the stuff they WANT to believe.

Sounds like the AGW movement.

Show me the readily verifiable data. The only readily verifiable data I have seen suggests that the warming due to CO2 emissions should be very minor. That effect is the direct consequences of a minor greenhouse gas, which is highly scientific.

Beyond that actual science is only speculation about forcings and trumpeting models that can't even simulate el nino (which has a greater impact on global temperatures than any speculative forcing) or even cloud cover (which also has a greater impact than any speculative forcings.)

On top of it all, the surface temperature record is muddied by verifiably poor methodology where the unscientific "corrections" done to the data are greater in magnitude than the theorized warming over the last several decades, and almost always biased towards a greater recent temperature.

Hints:

If you are going to move the thermometer trying to avoid the urban heat island effect, you dont just willy-nilly adjust the old record from the old thermostat downwards by an arbitrary amount .. you instead leave the old one in place for a period of years and collect statistics about the differences so that you can make reasoned scientific adjustments to the record. In nearly all cases, the old record is adjusted without such scientific steps being taken, and then used to draw conclusions about the difference between the old record and the new record. Betcha didnt know that.

Additionally you don't set the new thermometer up right next to an air conditioner exhaust vent .. ehem .. some really horrible methodology being played out.

Also, you don't declare a proxy which is only located in North America as representative of global climate, and then use that proxy to make bold claims about past global climate. Do you honestly think that there was science behind that?

And you do not use a statistical methodology that produces hockey sticks even when fed with white noise instead of real data, and then draw conclusions about how alarming the hockey stick is. Seriously. Science doesnt get to do that.

And my last hint of the day: When you claim that there is a consensus among scientists, you do not hide the supposedly consensing reviewers notes.

No amount of data is convincing if it goes against their politics or cherished notions and the vaguest hint of any doubt is elevated to "truth" status if the message aligns with their political, financial, or ignoramus interests.

No amount of bad data is convincing, for sure.

Science. Somewhere along the way you get the measurement error to within a tolerance that allows conclusions about the hypothesis to be drawn. If this isnt possible, then good conclusions about the hypothesis are not possible. Period. Science. Love it or hate it. It is what it is.

Unbelievable.

Yes, it is.

Billions of people being told that the debate (and hence, the science) is over IS unblievable.

Billions of people being told that there is a consensus when apparently nobody has actualy done a study that might have the chance to actualy draw such a conclusions IS unbelievable. (The only studies so far provided here in this thread seem to suggest that there ISNT a consensus, but the methodology is flawed by a potential sampling bias .. so we dont know either way)

The demonstrable lack of access to the IPCC reviewers notes IS unbelievable. Why hide the notes when there is a consensus? The IPCC supposedly has an open hands policy. Guess not.

What ISNT unbelievable is that a political group wants to effect policy changes, and justifies its existance using the tried and true tactic of peddling fear. No suprise there.

That is the situation we are in regarding global warming. We can't predict the future, but we can say that the longer we don't do anything, the worse and sooner the consequences will befall us

Wait a second here.. if we cannot predict the future then how come you decided that there are bad consequences? Which is it?

We CAN predict the future to some degree.. sometimes to an extremely good degree. But please show me the SCIENCE behind it. If you went looking, you will find that there is much speculation and little actual science behind the doomsday predictions.

--in fact, they already are. Muddying up facts with a "teach the controversy" notion doesn't serve your fellow inhabitants very well. Global warming deniers are on par with creationist obfuscationists in my book. -- Bad mouthers of science and promoters of spin.

Until they say what evidence they would find acceptable, I think it's safe to say they are stuck in their "faith".

For the record since you clearly do not know: The supposed consensus is not only that global warming is happening, but additionally that humans are the primary cause of global warming.

Show me the evidence that such a consensus exists. Pointing to a claim that there is a consensus is not evidence. Shame on the ones claiming it for not actualy performing a study that would lead to such a conclusion.

The IPCC has lied before.. why not again?
 
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I found this interesting. At least some of these people are climate scientists, and it's recent.

Is it nonsense, is in the US Gubmint trying to avoid a rebadged Kyoto agreement (would be harder to refuse now), of is there any vestige of a valid "contra" position?
 
I found this interesting. At least some of these people are climate scientists, and it's recent.

Is it nonsense, is in the US Gubmint trying to avoid a rebadged Kyoto agreement (would be harder to refuse now), of is there any vestige of a valid "contra" position?

Inhofe? Yeah...so the world health organization scientists are all in on a conspiracy and Senator Inhofe is the source you trust.

http://thinkprogress.org/2007/03/21/gore-boxer-inhofe/

Say, look.... a link like yours--only more legitimate--with video.

And rockoon--I shall not debate the faith filled--they are not very good and reasoning and evidence. I've seen your type all too often in creationist repulicant loyalist circles. In fact, there's a name for it: http://www.wired.com/culture/lifestyle/commentary/alttext/2007/06/alttext_0620

Pugilistic Discussion Syndrome

In this curious form of aphasia, the subject is unable to distinguish between a discussion and a contest. The subject approaches any online forum as a sort of playing field, and attempts to "win" the discussion by any means necessary. The rules of the imaginary contest are apparently clear to the individual as he or she will often point out when others break them, but when asked to outline these rules the individual is reluctant, perhaps not wishing to confer an "advantage" on any "opponents." The conditions for winning are similarly difficult to pin down, although in some cases the individual will declare himself the winner of a discussion that, to all others, appears to be ongoing.


What constitutes a concensus of opinion if the vast majority of scientists all over the world don't, and sources like Inhofe make your faith all the stronger. You could pour through every detail of the IPCC report, but your synapses would only light up when you something that you could twist to your favor.
I mean really--the scientists are all liars, but those paid with "business funds" are all on the up and up.

You guys can play fantasy games on your thread to your hearts content. The facts keep being the facts even as you deny them.

If you had a suspicious lump, it might not be a good idea to run around claiming it's nothing. The planet has a suspicious lump.
 
Inhofe? Yeah...so the world health organization scientists are all in on a conspiracy and Senator Inhofe is the source you trust.

http://thinkprogress.org/2007/03/21/gore-boxer-inhofe/

Say, look.... a link like yours--only more legitimate--with video.

And rockoon--I shall not debate the faith filled--they are not very good and reasoning and evidence. I've seen your type all too often in creationist repulicant loyalist circles. In fact, there's a name for it: http://www.wired.com/culture/lifestyle/commentary/alttext/2007/06/alttext_0620

Pugilistic Discussion Syndrome

In this curious form of aphasia, the subject is unable to distinguish between a discussion and a contest. The subject approaches any online forum as a sort of playing field, and attempts to "win" the discussion by any means necessary. The rules of the imaginary contest are apparently clear to the individual as he or she will often point out when others break them, but when asked to outline these rules the individual is reluctant, perhaps not wishing to confer an "advantage" on any "opponents." The conditions for winning are similarly difficult to pin down, although in some cases the individual will declare himself the winner of a discussion that, to all others, appears to be ongoing.

What constitutes a concensus of opinion if the vast majority of scientists all over the world don't, and sources like Inhofe make your faith all the stronger. You could pour through every detail of the IPCC report, but your synapses would only light up when you something that you could twist to your favor.
I mean really--the scientists are all liars, but those paid with "business funds" are all on the up and up.

You guys can play fantasy games on your thread to your hearts content. The facts keep being the facts even as you deny them.

If you had a suspicious lump, it might not be a good idea to run around claiming it's nothing. The planet has a suspicious lump.

Well, I'm a lot clearer in my mind now, after that useful and well-reasoned argument. I ask a reasonable question and get attacked. FYI, articulett, I ASKED A QUESTION. I did not say anything about the world health organization scientists being "in on a conspiracy". I don't even know who Senator Inhofe is, let alone have him as "the source I trust."

This is not exactly diluting my argument about posts asking for opinions on AGW being slapped down. What was wrong with the link I posted? I asked "is it valid?" not "may I fricassee your daughter's pet bunny"!
 
Well, I'm a lot clearer in my mind now, after that useful and well-reasoned argument. I ask a reasonable question and get attacked. FYI, articulett, I ASKED A QUESTION. I did not say anything about the world health organization scientists being "in on a conspiracy". I don't even know who Senator Inhofe is, let alone have him as "the source I trust."

This is not exactly diluting my argument about posts asking for opinions on AGW being slapped down. What was wrong with the link I posted? I asked "is it valid?" not "may I fricassee your daughter's pet bunny"!

Welcome fellow infidel. Watch out for the truth police attack dogs.
 
Greetings, O Hazy One! Welcome to our evil conspiracy to destroy all civilisation by pretending not to accept The Holy Consensus as the ultimate answer to all questions.

Death to humankind! BUWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

I feel like I've suddenly slipped into a woo site: "Look, lots and lots of people have been helped by Sylvia Browne! Homeopathy just WORKS, OK? Go back to your simple, narrow-minded so-called skeptic friends. You're obviously not open to other ways of knowing."

This is the JREF site, the same one mentioned on my membership card, isn't it? Or have I slipped into some strange, parallel universe à la Star Trek, where Evil Randi is a credulous wooster?
 
You mean the majority isnt truely alarmed?

For the record since you clearly do not know: The supposed consensus is not only that global warming is happening, but additionally that humans are the primary cause of global warming.

Show me the evidence that such a consensus exists. Pointing to a claim that there is a consensus is not evidence. Shame on the ones claiming it for not actualy performing a study that would lead to such a conclusion.

The IPCC has lied before.. why not again?

I think that is a reasonable "short story" view of what the supposed consensus is, although numerous organizations qualify the statement.

But why should one not presume that all the various tactics used here on this forum, largely preventing serious discussion, are not what exists is the greater scientific community?
 
Oh, BTW, I'm doing a dissection without anaesthetic of a cute little puppy tonight if you'd like to come and watch. It's one of my hobbies, along with wanting to destroy the world.
 
But why should one not presume that all the various tactics used here on this forum, largely preventing serious discussion, are not what exists is the greater scientific community?

That seems a valid question, mhaze. One to which, I fear, we're unlikey to receive a civil answer. The link I posted earlier has several scientists (some of whom are climatologists) who have reversed their opinions regarding AGW. I just wanted to know if they're well-respected scientists and, if they were, how their thinking might be muddled.

I watched "The Great Global Warming Swindle" and tried to discuss its points on realclimate.org. I could tell some points weren't valid, but I thought others should be discussed. Were they true, or was evidence being suppressed? I wanted to know the TRUTH, not cleave to some preconceived "convenient lie".

I left the thread in disgust after my genuine questions were answered with angry rhetoric. The whole thread was simply a character assassination of the documentary maker and, by association, the scientists who appeared on it. No science was discussed at all.
 
Greetings, O Hazy One! Welcome to our evil conspiracy to destroy all civilisation by pretending not to accept The Holy Consensus as the ultimate answer to all questions.

Death to humankind! BUWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

I feel like I've suddenly slipped into a woo site: "Look, lots and lots of people have been helped by Sylvia Browne! Homeopathy just WORKS, OK? Go back to your simple, narrow-minded so-called skeptic friends. You're obviously not open to other ways of knowing."

This is the JREF site, the same one mentioned on my membership card, isn't it? Or have I slipped into some strange, parallel universe à la Star Trek, where Evil Randi is a credulous wooster?

The problem is that when one side of the discussion makes claims and then runs away from them when called on them, the discussion doesn't tend to get very far. Rockoon claimed in another thread that the IPCC had been caught in a lie in that thread, when he was called on it he vanished. If they were shown to have lied, in that thread, and he knows what the lie is because, well it is his claim, it should be really easy to say what the lie is and show it to be a lie. If the IPCC have lied I would like to know about it, I think it is a fairly important subject. That's why, when I have time, I go back and try to find the sources for assertions to see if the assertions stand up to scrutiny. If people make assertions without supporting them, how exactly am I meant to learn anything?

The same tactic of claim and no evidence to back the claim is used all over this forum, by psychics, creationists, 9/11 truthers, doswers, telekinesis advocates etc. I can't see why it would surprise you that the same tactic is used here to support arguments that don't make sense when viewed next to the data and work provided by scientists.

If people are short with you it is because they have been through the same arguments many times on many threads and are just tired enough to not want to go through it all again, but not so tired that they will stand by and see the same toppled arguments pushed upright again for the unwary to bump into.
 
Greetings, O Hazy One! Welcome to our evil conspiracy to destroy all civilisation by pretending not to accept The Holy Consensus as the ultimate answer to all questions.

Death to humankind! BUWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

I feel like I've suddenly slipped into a woo site: "Look, lots and lots of people have been helped by Sylvia Browne! Homeopathy just WORKS, OK? Go back to your simple, narrow-minded so-called skeptic friends. You're obviously not open to other ways of knowing."

This is the JREF site, the same one mentioned on my membership card, isn't it? Or have I slipped into some strange, parallel universe à la Star Trek, where Evil Randi is a credulous wooster?

Walk slowly through the tendrils of fog, each creature encountered, with downcast eyes mumble contritely

"I no denier. Only small fool Truthseeker."

Battle axes will lower but superious all knowing eyes remain watchful glaring till you pass.
 
If people are short with you it is because they have been through the same arguments many times on many threads and are just tired enough to not want to go through it all again, but not so tired that they will stand by and see the same toppled arguments pushed upright again for the unwary to bump into.

Yet I've seen Schrodinger's Equation, the vagaries of quantum mechanics, explanations of types of logical fallacy, basic statistics, and countless other things patiently explained time and time again.

If people don't want to answer, they're not forced to post. If someone just has to do so, what's wrong with a link to a thread that succinctly answers the honest question?
 

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