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Fall US Elections

Not even close in Kentucky. McConnell easily won with a 15% margin.

Alison Lundergan Grimes turned out to be a bit of a disappointment considering the high hopes some people had for her. It seems she got herself into a bit of a cul-de-sac by refusing to say who she voted for for president. Answering honestly might not have helped her much considering Obama's unpopularity in Kentucky but at least it wouldn't have made her look like she's trying to hide something and on the defensive. And you can add context when you say it. I'm pretty sure most people took her refusal to answer as a tacit admission that she voted for Obama anyway. I mean, who else would a Democrat be expected to vote for?

Analysts say that Obama's "war on coal" is also to blame:
McConnell handily takes sixth Senate term

It's hard to dispute that Grimes' loss was in large part due to Obama and his policies.

The results in Eastern Kentucky where coal mining job losses have been the most severe, showed that Grimes took a beating there.

In Morgan County, where 88.7 percent of voters are Democrats, McConnell beat Grimes 53-43 percent. In Knott, where 92.6 percent of voters are Democrats, McConnell won 58-38.

Ted Jackson, a Republican political consultant, said that McConnell was successful in making the race about Obama, but even without that, he said, Grimes was just never able to connect with voters in a way that made them want to go out and support her.

"She had everything going against her," he said. "Obama, coal, all that stuff. But you strip it all that away and she just wasn't a good candidate."
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I think we can at least say at this point that Republicans will have a majority in the senate. The Georgia race looks like it will go Republican. It's one of the ones that was considered a "toss-up".
 
Puppycow said:
Not even close in Kentucky. McConnell easily won with a 15% margin.

Alison Lundergan Grimes turned out to be a bit of a disappointment considering the high hopes some people had for her. It seems she got herself into a bit of a cul-de-sac by refusing to say who she voted for for president. Answering honestly might not have helped her much considering Obama's unpopularity in Kentucky but at least it wouldn't have made her look like she's trying to hide something and on the defensive. And you can add context when you say it. I'm pretty sure most people took her refusal to answer as a tacit admission that she voted for Obama anyway. I mean, who else would a Democrat be expected to vote for?

Analysts say that Obama's "war on coal" is also to blame:
McConnell handily takes sixth Senate term
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This is another where the polls were off by a huge increment. It's a safe GOP state. The Dem hopes were based on the disaffection from the Tea Party and the primary battle, but the Teapers came home to roost, I think. McConnell's figures were about +8%. He just about doubled that. It's very similar to the numbers in Colorado.
 
Puppycow said:
I think we can at least say at this point that Republicans will have a majority in the senate. The Georgia race looks like it will go Republican. It's one of the ones that was considered a "toss-up".
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CNN called Georgia for the GOP a while back. And yes, that was a "toss-up", but only with a real dose of national money when it looked closer than the Dems were expecting. It appears that was a temporary blip on the radar.
 
Scott Walker easily wins reelection in Wisconsin by 14%. I guess any doubts they had about his policies were erased by comparing Wisconsin to Illinois lol.
 
Foolmewunz said:
This is another where the polls were off by a huge increment.
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I don't know that the polls were that far off really. They may have overestimated support for the Libertarian candidate. If that's what you support, you may tell it to a pollster, but when you go to the voting booth you know that the Libertarian candidate has no chance of actually winning, so it's a different calculus. Do you stand on principle knowing that your vote will have no effect or vote for "the lesser evil"? Also the undecideds broke for McConnell. Lundergan Grimes was at about 41% in the polls and she got 41% on election day. Mitch was at about 50% in the polls and he got 56% on election day, but that's probably from picking up most of the undecideds and most or many of the people who told pollsters they supported the Libertarian guy.
 
WildCat said:
Scott Walker easily wins reelection in Wisconsin by 14%. I guess any doubts they had about his policies were erased by comparing Wisconsin to Illinois lol.
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Is it too early to start thinking about recalling him? :)
 
WildCat said:
Scott Walker easily wins reelection in Wisconsin by 14%. I guess any doubts they had about his policies were erased by comparing Wisconsin to Illinois lol.
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His policies have run Wisconsin down. However, it appears that most of the voters are ignorant of that
 
Foolmewunz said:
As Silver said, the polls tend to be biased to one party or the other, but there's never any consistency. This time the polls were weighted to the Dems and the results in the pre-election "toss-up" states are showing that...
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You're right. And Nate Silver, who's been a good source in the past few elections for those curious about how things are likely to turn out, continues to be a good source despite my hopes that this time he was off.

I thought the polls accurately reflected the mood of the electorate but were underestimating an increase in Democrats who would actually turn out to vote this election. I was wrong.

Well, the next 2 years should be interesting.
 
Why, here in Arizona we'll have the best representatives that money can buy.
 
So it looks as if the VA senate race is headed to a recount with incumbent senator Mark Warner (D) finishing with a 0.5% lead out of ~2 million votes counted.

The FL governor's race has also finished within 1% but Crist has conceded the race -- which really isn't binding.

Those are the only 2 major races that I can see within the margin of uncertainty after the first count.
 
Kestrel said:
Sam Brownback's policy disasters didn't keep Kansas from giving him another term.
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And there was absolutely no backlash against the latest Queen of Crazy in Iowa. If there was ever a race where the hidden GOTV effort should have played out, that one was it.
 
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