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Fall US Elections

I keep telling you Dems on this site that you ain't the Landslide Majority you have convinced your selves. Nor are the Repubs a small whacko minority, there's more to us than the Tea Party. Give us some respect.

Maybe starting this Wednesday.
 
Nate Silver has the Dems' chances at 35%, which is four cards to a flush on the flop.

Not exactly great, but man is it nice when that flush card lands on the river.
 
Fudbucker said:
Nate Silver has the Dems' chances at 35%, which is four cards to a flush on the flop.

Not exactly great, but man is it nice when that flush card lands on the river.
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The pro plays the man, not the cards. If you haven't already won by the river, you're an amateur, a true gambler: In it for the intense rush of the lucky flop, rather than the satisfaction of playing a skillful hand.
 
theprestige said:
The pro plays the man, not the cards. If you haven't already won by the river, you're an amateur, a true gambler: In it for the intense rush of the lucky flop, rather than the satisfaction of playing a skillful hand.
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True. I would stay in on a hand like that for a fair amount of money, but if the stakes got high, I'd be out of there.

When you catch that flush though, you can really cleanup, if you read the table right.

But I'm just a casual poker player. Just sayin that the Dems' chances aren't that great but they're not horrible either.
 
I respect Nate Silver and his skill at assessing the poll numbers. His predictions have generally been well worth paying attention to. But for this election, the polls may not be the most reliable indicator of what's going to happen.

A number of high-ranking GOP officials have written to tell me that this year the key is getting voters to the polls. And they have repeatedly assured me that the Democrats are in much better shape than the GOP in this regard.

For instance, here's one of the messages I received recently:

I’m going to be candid with you, right now the biggest thing holding us back from building a secure lead is a lack of resources. Without your support, chances for a Republican victory are slim.
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Here's another one:

Right now, we are short on fully funding our Get-Out-The- Vote programs. Without additional funds, we will not be able to get all of our supporters to the polls on Election Day. The Democrats do not have this worry.
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A big part of the problem appears to be that the GOP just does not have the skill to run an effective operation. In numerous e-mails they have told me it takes them $24 to turn out one voter. Here's a typical message regarding their current get-out-the-vote efforts:

TURN OUT 1 VOTER: $24
TURN OUT 2 VOTERS: $48
TURN OUT 3 VOTERS: $72
TURN OUT 5 VOTERS: $120
TURN OUT 10 VOTERS: $240
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Now, it's possible they're not being fully truthful, and are exaggerating the problems they're having. But I've gotten many messages this past week all saying essentially the same thing. I could imagine there being one rogue operative sending out dishonest messages to make the GOP effort look lame; but the people writing me include Mitt Romney, Mitch McConnell, Karl Rove, Marco Rubio, Jerry Moran and many others. For them all to be saying essentially the same thing to me means either this is an impressively large conspiracy -- or they're telling the truth.

We'll find out next week -- but for now, I'm going to take them at their word. Especially when they assure me:

We can do this, but only with your help.
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If that's true, look for Democrats to do considerably better next week than the polls are indicating.
 
Nova Land said:
I respect Nate Silver and his skill at assessing the poll numbers. His predictions have generally been well worth paying attention to. But for this election, the polls may not be the most reliable indicator of what's going to happen.

A number of high-ranking GOP officials have written to tell me that this year the key is getting voters to the polls. And they have repeatedly assured me that the Democrats are in much better shape than the GOP in this regard.

For instance, here's one of the messages I received recently:




Here's another one:




A big part of the problem appears to be that the GOP just does not have the skill to run an effective operation. In numerous e-mails they have told me it takes them $24 to turn out one voter. Here's a typical message regarding their current get-out-the-vote efforts:




Now, it's possible they're not being fully truthful, and are exaggerating the problems they're having. But I've gotten many messages this past week all saying essentially the same thing. I could imagine there being one rogue operative sending out dishonest messages to make the GOP effort look lame; but the people writing me include Mitt Romney, Mitch McConnell, Karl Rove, Marco Rubio, Jerry Moran and many others. For them all to be saying essentially the same thing to me means either this is an impressively large conspiracy -- or they're telling the truth.

We'll find out next week -- but for now, I'm going to take them at their word. Especially when they assure me:




If that's true, look for Democrats to do considerably better next week than the polls are indicating.
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The problem is that the states that the Dems need to take are not ones with a shifting-blue base, other than Colorado. Georgia was a money play and it worked for a while but the GOP has rebounded to hold the lead in most polls.

Here's the writing on the wall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Note the blue box incumbents in unlikely places. Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, South Dakota, West Virginia. There's going to have to be a helluva Get Out the Vote effort in states like those if the Dems are going to grab four or five unexpected wins.
 
Foolmewunz said:
The problem is that the states that the Dems need to take are not ones with a shifting-blue base, other than Colorado. Georgia was a money play and it worked for a while but the GOP has rebounded to hold the lead in most polls.

Here's the writing on the wall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Note the blue box incumbents in unlikely places. Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, South Dakota, West Virginia. There's going to have to be a helluva Get Out the Vote effort in states like those if the Dems are going to grab four or five unexpected wins.
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Wow, he's got the GOP at nearly 70% (68) now... :eek:

Purely antidotal, of course, but yesterday, here in Southern Illinois, I met a 24 year old Walmart department manager who can't wait for Tuesday so he vote a straight Republican ticket. "Oh man, I hope we fire Quinn Tuesday." were his exact words.
 
Mike! said:
Wow, he's got the GOP at nearly 70% (68) now... :eek:

Purely antidotal, of course, but yesterday, here in Southern Illinois, I met a 24 year old Walmart department manager who can't wait for Tuesday so he vote a straight Republican ticket. "Oh man, I hope we fire Quinn Tuesday." were his exact words.
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A Walmart department manager's salary doesn't exactly put him in the income group most favored by the Republican Party.
 
Kestrel said:
A Walmart department manager's salary doesn't exactly put him in the income group most favored by the Republican Party.
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Despite the country having improved by most every measure, the steady drumbeat of negative news has people convinced we're worse off then before. Add in the fear mongering that Republicans are doing with Ebola and the problems in the ME and I think the Republicans here in CO have done a great job blaming everything on Obama and then tieing the local candidates with Obama.

I don't think Udall and Hick have done themselves any favors either with their ad's.
 
DavidJames said:
Despite the country having improved by most every measure, the steady drumbeat of negative news has people convinced we're worse off then before. Add in the fear mongering that Republicans are doing with Ebola and the problems in the ME and I think the Republicans here in CO have done a great job blaming everything on Obama and then tieing the local candidates with Obama.

I don't think Udall and Hick have done themselves any favors either with their ad's.
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His issue was with Quinn primarily. He told me his paycheck was $40 less every week since Quinn raised taxes 60% in Illinois. "That's a tank of gas, every week!" were his words.
 
Nate Silver has it at over 70% for the GOP.

Gonna need to draw that inside straight for the Dems to have a decent night. But anything's possible! That's why I love politics.
 
Tuesday's looking like it's gonna be a blood bath for the dems. :(

Oh well, wait till 2016 :)
 
casebro said:
I keep telling you Dems on this site that you ain't the Landslide Majority you have convinced your selves. Nor are the Repubs a small whacko minority, there's more to us than the Tea Party. Give us some respect.

Maybe starting this Wednesday.
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No, the Republicans aren't some small whacko minority. Unfortunately, they're a large whacko minority, and low voter turnout during midterms, along with gerrymandering, will allow these whacks to gain even more influence.
 
The last polls in a couple of states are really tight. But the Dems still have to "steal" at least two out of four (five) in GA, IA, AR, CO (AK) and the trail in all.

Nate Silver had an article about four days ago saying that the one thing they can't account for is the bias of the polls in a given year. Sometimes that bias is Dem and sometimes it is Rep. There doesn't seem to be a pattern to it, but the bias tends to run 2 to 3 per cent. That would be enough to swing Iowa or Georgia, for instance, maybe one of the others.

At the moment it's looking like 52, 47, 1*. I'll wait to see what any polls released on Monday say, but that'd be my prediction if not my wish.


ETA: * that should be 3 Independents, but I'm in the habit of looking at the current race where there's a potential increase of 1. The two current Independents caucus with the Dems, also. So if the vote goes the way I'm guessing, it's really 52, 45, 3.
 
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I can't wait for even more pointless and costly investigations into manufactured scandals, mindless obstructionism, votes to repeal the ACA, debt ceiling brinksmanship, and government shutdown nonsense. I'm so glad we have a sane and totally useful Republican Party.
 
Fudbucker said:
Nate Silver has it at over 70% for the GOP.
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Fudbucker said:
Tuesday's looking like it's gonna be a blood bath for the dems
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Usually the polls are a good indicator of what's going to happen. And usually Nate Silver has been an excellent interpreter of what the polls are saying.

But for this election I think turnout is going to be the key -- and the polls aren't able (at least not yet) to factor the comparative merits of the GOP and Democratic Get Out The Vote efforts into their numbers.

I can't, either -- but I can make a guess. And my guess is the Democrat's GOTV in many states is going to far outdo the GOP's.

Let's set aside that the GOP has promised me, repeatedly, that if I don't contribute they'll lose. That may be simply rhetoric.

But the GOP has also told me repeatedly that if I give them $24 they can get one voter to the polls. The Democrats have told me that if I give them $3 they can reach 100 voters. So that would be 800 voters reached for the same $24 amount.

Now those figures aren't directly comparable; one is for voters contacted in an effort to motivate to vote and the other is for voters actually motivated to vote. But unless the Democrats have a .125% success rate with their outreach, the Democrats look to be a lot better at this kind of thing. That matches what I think I've seen in the last few elections, starting in 2008.

I think the Democrats have been doing a better job of reaching out to their voters and urging them to vote in this election than the Republicans have, and that that's going to make a key difference of several percentage points in several close races. My prediction: Democrats at least 48+3, Republicans no more than 49.
 
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I think the GOP gains control of the Senate and we spend the next two years with repeated cycles of Obamacare repeals and vetoes.
 
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