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Fall US Elections

I didn't say that the IRS was the one to liquidate illiquid assets. But they can force the heirs to do so by presenting them with a big tax bill and demanding payment. This is particularly problematic in the art world.

Okay, I'll amend that to "where the IRS cause the estate to be liquidated".

And your example is a bit esoteric isn't it? The argument is over whether or not the piece in question is worth $0 or $65 million because a stuffed bald eagle is part of the piece and you can't sell bald eagles. I'm not sure there are many estates haggling over multi-million dollar bald eagle art pieces.

And I'll give you that one. That's still a far cry from a few thousand a year.
 
Millions of people? I don't believe that. Got anything to back that up with?

Over 1.5% of US households have a net worth above $5MM, which comes to over 1.7MM households (and millions of people). You don't think it's plausible that most of those people have contemplated making a gift in excess of $14K to another person?

If anything creates problems for wealthy people people it's bad?

Creating problems for any humans, other than criminals, is bad in my book. I don't think that wealthy people are any less human than anybody else.

A few thousand per year? Again, anything to back that up with? I doubt it's anywhere near that.

In 2009, which is the year most comparable to today since the estate tax threshold was $3.5MM, the # of taxable returns was 14,700 (out of 33,500 returns filed). Total taxes paid was $20.6B. I think it's safe to say that a sizable percentage of the heirs of those 14,700 estates were inconvenienced (and even many of the heirs of the estates which filed a return but had zero tax liability - presumably, these were estates whose decedents had done better tax planning while still alive).

If you think it will work, okay sounds good. I don't particularly see any reason to do it but if you want to, go ahead.

Of course it will work. In the short-term. In the long-term perhaps not so much. Of course, a lot depends upon what your ultimate goal is. If it is to enhance the well-being of the average citizen, or the poor, no it will not work. If your goal is instead to make wealthy people less happy, then it will be very effective. You'll most likely get an added bonus of making a lot of non-wealthy people less happy too.
 
Okay, I'll amend that to "where the IRS cause the estate to be liquidated".

And your example is a bit esoteric isn't it? The argument is over whether or not the piece in question is worth $0 or $65 million because a stuffed bald eagle is part of the piece and you can't sell bald eagles. I'm not sure there are many estates haggling over multi-million dollar bald eagle art pieces.

And I'll give you that one. That's still a far cry from a few thousand a year.

If you read further in the article, you'll see that there's more than just the bald eagle weirdness (emphasis added):

Heirs to important art collections are often subject to large tax bills. In this case, the beneficiaries, Nina Sundell and Antonio Homem, have paid $471 million in federal and state estate taxes related to Mrs. Sonnabend’s roughly $1 billion art collection, which included works by Modern masters from Jasper Johns to Andy Warhol. The children have already sold off a large part of it, approximately $600 million worth, to pay the taxes they owed, according to their lawyer, Ralph E. Lerner.

I don't have time to track down other examples, but there are quite a lot of people who end up asset rich and cash poor by the end of their lives, where the assets are relatively illiquid like real estate or art or a private business. Of course, the problem isn't as bad as it used to be when the lifetime exemption was $675K (before Bush 43) or $1MM (which is where the Democrats want it to be). But we don't really have the Democrats to thank for that now, do we?
 
I'll help you out. Warning: massive strawman being built and I don't care.

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0717.pdf

In 2004, there were 569,000 with a net worth of $5M or more.

The population in 2004 was 293,000,000. So less than 0.2% were subject to estimate taxes.

Death rate in 2004 was about .8%.

So that would mean about 4500 people died in 2004 with estates more than $5M or 0.0015% of the people.

Ten years later, maybe the percent has doubled. That's up to a whopping 0.003%

Yes, let's cater to them.
 
Over 1.5% of US households have a net worth above $5MM, which comes to over 1.7MM households (and millions of people). You don't think it's plausible that most of those people have contemplated making a gift in excess of $14K to another person?
Um, no. That's the Fed Reserve calculation. The IRS uses a different method and guess who's going to be calculating your estate.
 
If you read further in the article, you'll see that there's more than just the bald eagle weirdness (emphasis added):
I already agreed that that was one example. One.

I don't have time to track down other examples, but there are quite a lot of people who end up asset rich and cash poor by the end of their lives, where the assets are relatively illiquid like real estate or art or a private business. Of course, the problem isn't as bad as it used to be when the lifetime exemption was $675K (before Bush 43) or $1MM (which is where the Democrats want it to be). But we don't really have the Democrats to thank for that now, do we?
You don't have time to provide proof of your claims?

Quite a lot? How many is that?
 
I'll help you out. Warning: massive strawman being built and I don't care.

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0717.pdf

In 2004, there were 569,000 with a net worth of $5M or more.

The population in 2004 was 293,000,000. So less than 0.2% were subject to estimate taxes.

Death rate in 2004 was about .8%.

So that would mean about 4500 people died in 2004 with estates more than $5M or 0.0015% of the people.

Ten years later, maybe the percent has doubled. That's up to a whopping 0.003%

Yes, let's cater to them.

I'm just about to run off to dinner, but I couldn't help responding because there is a rather egregious error in your analysis. A smiley face for the first person to catch it (you're eligible too).
 
Everything you need to know about the cyclical nature of wealth can be learned in Monopoly.

It is human nature for the rich to game the system to keep wealth and acquire more and more from the system. Capitalism isn't a zero sum game but there is only so much growth and so much efficiency in the system. You can only bleed it so much. Today the poor face financial burdens they never had to in the past. There was a time when a person could open a checking account and, for allowing the bank to hold that money, the person was able to cash his or her check for free. Now most poor people have to wait a few more days for their money if they use a non-fee card and they still have to pay on many transactions. Other options charge up front check cashing fees.

Eventually the system will run out of steam and we will have another recession or depression. It's possible we will not see long term growth again until the people get their pitchforks or actually vote their interests.

Or we could just lower taxes again to stimulate the economy.

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I'm just about to run off to dinner, but I couldn't help responding because there is a rather egregious error in your analysis. A smiley face for the first person to catch it (you're eligible too).

Error, I'm sure there might be something. Egregious? I don't think so. If you think I'm comparing households to total population that would be your error. The IRS data is based on individuals, not households.
 
The premise is false. An argument based on false preemies is not valid. When it is shown to be invalid and you continue to propagate the meme it is mendacious.

Just to be pedantic here, an argument based on false premises can be valid. A valid argument is one in which the conclusion follows logically from its premises.

However, an argument with false premises is one which is not sound.
 
Just to be pedantic here, an argument based on false premises can be valid. A valid argument is one in which the conclusion follows logically from its premises.

However, an argument with false premises is one which is not sound.
I actually knew that. :o
 
Error, I'm sure there might be something. Egregious? I don't think so. If you think I'm comparing households to total population that would be your error. The IRS data is based on individuals, not households.

The error I was thinking of was your application of the death rate for the entire US population to the cohort of people who are worth $5MM or more. It takes time for people to accumulate wealth, so wealthy individuals tend to be considerably older than the median. And older people have higher death rates, so you're probably off by an integer multiple there.

On the other hand, you misread the table you linked to and overestimated the # of people worth $5MM or more in 2004. On the third hand, however, the census data, which is derived from estate tax data and not from the census, probably underestimates the number of wealthy people because it looks at taxable estates, and most wealthy people have access to strategies to move a lot of their wealth (at considerable expense and hassle) out of their estates and into trusts long before they die.
 
The error I was thinking of was your application of the death rate for the entire US population to the cohort of people who are worth $5MM or more. It takes time for people to accumulate wealth, so wealthy individuals tend to be considerably older than the median. And older people have higher death rates, so you're probably off by an integer multiple there.
Valid point. So if I'm off by a magnitude, that brings the final percentage up to 0.03%. Yeah, that's a big portion of the population.

On the other hand, you misread the table you linked to and overestimated the # of people worth $5MM or more in 2004. On the third hand, however, the census data, which is derived from estate tax data and not from the census, probably underestimates the number of wealthy people because it looks at taxable estates, and most wealthy people have access to strategies to move a lot of their wealth (at considerable expense and hassle) out of their estates and into trusts long before they die.
If the wealth is moved out of their estates then it's not their wealth is it? At least as far as the IRS is concerned and that's all that matters when dealing with estate taxes.
 
Please don't. We need all the sane people to vote that we can get (assuming that you are, in fact, sane). The crazies don't actually outnumber us, but they do have a greater tendency to vote, due to the angst factor.
Who is "we" , "us" and "they"? Who are these magical politicians in Washington who care more about this country and its' citizens than they do their own paycheck and party?

How can anyone get excited about a politician running for federal office (one who actually has a chance to win)? I'd rather pick a random person from this forum to be president (yes, even him).
 
...most wealthy people have access to strategies to move a lot of their wealth (at considerable expense and hassle) out of their estates and into trusts long before they die.
If wealth could be created and accumulated in a vacuum I would have a different opinion from the one I do now (see below). If we were not a social species where the well-being of all is dependent on empathy, compassion and reciprocal altruism (or some means to give the disadvantaged resources to overcome that disadvantage) then I would have a different opinion. If people were truly born with equal opportunity then I would have a different opinion.

Penn Jillette (among others) makes the argument that the pragmatic argument (socialist) is paternalistic and presumptuous. That it gives the government the power to decide what is in the best interest of citizens rather than let each of them to decide for themselves. The govt, according to Jillette and others of like mindset, seeks to make outcome equal by transferring the wealth of those who work hard to accumulate that wealth to those who don't.

I have lived most of my life as a conservative. For a time I was libertarian (hence RandFan). I find Jillette's argument coherent and compelling. I find Jellette to be one of the most ethical people I have ever known. He is rational and reasonable IMO.

Here is the problem as I see it. Penn Jillette's children will have advantages that poor children do not. Whether one is born advantaged or disadvantaged is the greatest predictor of success. If Jillette moved his children into a modest home and did not provide any advantages to them that wealth provides then I would find that he is consistent in his ethics as it relates to this point. Jillette is paternalistic when it comes to his children (as he should be). Why can't, in the very least, the govt can be somewhat paternalistic when it comes to the children of poor people?

Also, we have a scientific model that explains and predicts that socities that provide social services to poor people have healthier and wealthier societies. IOW: It's good for all people, rich and poor, to provide resources to the poor. Field research coupled with game theory bears that out for species that engage in reciprocal altruism are by far the more succesful species.

Also, we have data from human societies that supports the predictions made by the traits derived from evolutionary selected for social species, reciprocal altruism and game theory (the ability to help others with no expectation of reward and the willingness to forgive, to some degree, those who fail to meet their social contract).

Let me concede up front that correlation does not imply causation. However, a rigorous scientific model like reciprocal altruism coupled with a mathematical model for cooperation has to have the ability to be falsified. In order to falsify the model we would need to find, in methodologically compiled data, a negative correlation between government based altruistic behavior and some measure of success of human societies.

Here is where the concept of social services provided by government could be shown to fail. Some have argued that reciprocal altruism only works efficiently when individuals who have resources voluntarily help those who are disadvantaged. This is a compelling proposition for a number of reasons. Humans did not evolve to live in complex societies with governments redistributing wealth. Governments are bureaucratic and lacking the human element of giving. When my neighbor does something for me I feel a personal connection. I do not feel entitled to his or her help but instead I sense the sacrifice made by that person and I feel gratitude and have a sense of debt (game theory). Again, this is a very persuasive argument. One I made as a conservative and libertarian for the first 40 years of my life (minus my childhood when I was not capable of understanding human psychology and economics).

So, what does the data show?

The Index Of Economic Freedom is funded by the WSJ and is compiled by The Heritage Foundation. The FAQ for the Index can be found here. As you can see, there is a negative correlation between nations that provide generous social safety nets and low economic freedom. Nations that provide generous social safety nets are relatively high in economic freedom.

The Human Development Index. Purportedly this Index measures overall well-being of citizens based on sub categories like contentment, literacy, psychosocial health, wealth, etc. Again, there is a negative correlation between nations that provide generous social safety nets and relatively low Human Development.

Nominal per capital GDP. We find the same thing.

Counter argument: Nations that have the means to provide social safety nets do so because they can and human societies are composed of people capable of compassion and empathy. IOW: My argument has the cart before the horse and wealthy nations provide services because of successful economic strategies and human good will.

Rebuttal to the counter argument. The counter argument raises an important question, is their more harm than good by providing govt social services? IOW: Conceding the argument that govt help is cold and bureaucratic, what is the net effect? Is there a rigorous scientific model with explanatory and predictive power and can be falsified?

Social Darwinism or a variant similar, is an attempt to do just that. However, like Intelligent Design, the hypothesis is not rigorous and not reflected in the data. As far as I can tell the hypothesis is not entirely incorrect but it fails to adequately explain what we do find in the data.

Summary, on a case by case basis, volunteer giving is best however, societies that do not provide govt social services are not able to provide sufficient resources to it's poor simply because not enough people give (assertion admittedly, this is getting long, feel free to ask for sources and argument). Societies that provide generous social services are negatively correlated to low economic freedom, low human development and low wealth.

A couple of points. I did not address the morality of govt taking from one person to give to another. Feel free to respond to that and I will follow up. Also, there are many indexes. Please feel free to post one that you find more to your liking and we will see if it falsifies the hypothesis that govt social services are the best way to increase overall health and well-being. Also, I did not address the fact that the wealthy are likely to work to keep govt from taking their wealth making my argument moot (which is the subject at hand. I apologize but I had to get this out of the way first). We can discuss that also.
 
One more thing, I think it axiomatic that the greatest economic engine in the history of humankind is capitalism, some large degree of autonomy to invest and innovate and competition. It is my opinion that something akin to Keynesian economics, a mix of govt regulations and social services coupled with the right of individuals to own property, engage in industry, trading and the ability to accumulate wealth are key to the most productive and the most healthy societies.
 
Health effects arising from the September 11 attacks

The number of people affected is on the order of 10^5, many with decades of life ahead of them. An amount of money on the order of 10^9-10^10 amounts to $10-100k per person. Certainly nowhere near "absurdly" high given the cost of health care and the scope of the health problems involved. Are you still going to defend the indefensible?

I am not 100% certain that the WTC health effects claims are BS. But the fact that the bill was named after James Zadroga makes me rather skeptical.
 
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The Human Development Index. Purportedly this Index measures overall well-being of citizens based on sub categories like contentment, literacy, psychosocial health, wealth, etc. Again, there is a negative correlation between nations that provide generous social safety nets and relatively low Human Development.

I note that in terms of the Inequality-Adjusted HDI, the US went from #16 in 2013 to #28 in 2014. Thanks, Obama!
 
I am not 100% certain that the WTC health effects claims are BS. But the fact that the bill was named after James Zadroga makes me rather skeptical.

I... see...

Are you suggesting that James Zagroda died as a result of crushing and injecting pills, rather than from anything he was exposed to at Ground Zero, and that therefore the entire premise of providing health care to Ground Zero responders is suspect?
 
I... see...

Are you suggesting that James Zagroda died as a result of crushing and injecting pills,

Yes.

rather than from anything he was exposed to at Ground Zero,

Yes.

and that therefore the entire premise of providing health care to Ground Zero responders is suspect?

Pretty much, although I reserve the right to change my mind if serious epidemiology proves that there are elevated risks to the first responders. But the fact that Zadroga was latched onto by the bill's sponsors makes me more than normally skeptical.
 

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