Exit strategy for Libya?

[Darth Rotor]

Let me guess - with the Sirte basin going to the East? After all, we do need a divident on our investment.

Based on the maps I have seen, of oil surveys, that ought to be a key piece of negotiations: how to divide the wealth of the Sirte basin. It isn't a single oil field, as I read the maps, but a linked series of reserves.

 

[Darth Rotor]

In general I prefer countries to stay in one piece. Fewer foreign governments to deal with, and they're better able to practice real sovereignty. For example, Kosovo has between 40 and 60% unemployment, and 21% of its GDP is from aid by the international community and Kosovar diaspora.

In this case, however, a partition of Libya would seem to offer the most realistic way to get out fast and clean.

The Czechs and Slovaks decided that the lines on the map weren't right, and found a way to divvy things up without a war.

The Libyans may be able to see some wisdom in something like "redrawing those lines on the map" but maybe they won't.

 

[BeAChooser]

Here's the The Boogie Monster in this discussion about exit strategies.

Chemical Weapons.

Al-Qaeda.

 

[Laeke]

It seems Kadhaffi is working on our exit strategy...

 

[McHrozni]

The Czechs and Slovaks decided that the lines on the map weren't right, and found a way to divvy things up without a war.

The Libyans may be able to see some wisdom in something like "redrawing those lines on the map" but maybe they won't.

To be fair, that was a special case. There were two closely related nations, each already administred in it's own separate subnational entity from the foundation of their state onwards, though neither nation was dominant. They had no history of conflict between themselves, no grudges to settle.

Yugoslavia shared many - but not all - of the same characteristics and look at how that turned out. I would say it's unfortunately a better working model for Libya.

McHrozni

 

[Darth Rotor]

Yugoslavia shared many - but not all - of the same characteristics and look at how that turned out. I would say it's unfortunately a better working model for Libya.

McHrozni

So was Iraq, but nobody was listening when I made that point back in 2002 ...

 

[Toontown]

I'm tired of watching so-called "rebels" shooting up in the air. They've been up and down that highway, turned around and got lost. They didn't care, they were just dying to get off...

And it's too late to teach them how to fight. Apparently they don't even understand that digging in puts the attackers at a relative disadvantage compared to running down a highway, occasionally pausing long enough to shoot up in the air.

Too late to train those people. Too late to arm them. Gotta kill Kadaffy.

 

[Laeke]

I have seen some messages like yours and I wonder: isn't it a tad easy to make sarcastic remarks behind a keyboard about how they fight?

I do not deny that their military action seems inefficient, but the way some of them pose for the camera has little to do with it, I think.

 

[McHrozni]

So was Iraq, but nobody was listening when I made that point back in 2002 ...

Perhaps, but that doesn't mean the mistake must be repeated.

McHrozni

 

[BobTheCoward]

I'm tired of watching so-called "rebels" shooting up in the air. They've been up and down that highway, turned around and got lost. They didn't care, they were just dying to get off...

And it's too late to teach them how to fight. Apparently they don't even understand that digging in puts the attackers at a relative disadvantage compared to running down a highway, occasionally pausing long enough to shoot up in the air.

Too late to train those people. Too late to arm them. Gotta kill Kadaffy.

But then those dumbasses end up in charge. Hardly improvement.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

And it's too late to teach them how to fight.

For the record, the UN resolution that supposedly authorizes coalition or NATO intervention does not call for supporting an armed rebellion.

It clearly calls for an immediate cease fire.

 

[geni]

I'm tired of watching so-called "rebels" shooting up in the air. They've been up and down that highway, turned around and got lost. They didn't care, they were just dying to get off...

And it's too late to teach them how to fight. Apparently they don't even understand that digging in puts the attackers at a relative disadvantage compared to running down a highway, occasionally pausing long enough to shoot up in the air.

Rommel might dissagree. The North African Campaign involved a lot of back and forth.

Digging in along that road is kinda dicey. You risk having the enemy flank and isolate you. Sure if you have a way of getting supplies in as the allies did at Tobruk you can make a stand but the rebels don't have that.

 

[DanishDynamite]

The drawn out battle scenario I predicted seems to be unfolding, even if we are just 1 week in.

And I still don't see the exit strategy.

 

[Policenaut]

The drawn out battle scenario I predicted seems to be unfolding, even if we are just 1 week in.

And I still don't see the exit strategy.

You don't see one because there isn't one. Maybe in backrooms leaders are talking about how to save face on this debacle but they still don't know what to do. There are a few ways I can think of to exit fast. One: Kill Gadaffi and wish them luck as we wave goodbye. Two: Pull out all support now and wish them luck as we wave goodbye. Three: Give the rebels arms and wish them luck as we wave goodbye. None of those look like they are going to happen. So it will be a quagmire for the foreseeable future.

 

[leftysergeant]

Digging in along that road is kinda dicey. You risk having the enemy flank and isolate you. Sure if you have a way of getting supplies in as the allies did at Tobruk you can make a stand but the rebels don't have that.

No kidding! Anywhere in Europe, you have rivers and ridges or oceans and mountain ranges to funnel military movements. During the Cold War, most American units were focused on defending the Fulda Gap, where we expected most of the armor units in the entire Warsaw Pact too come steam-rolling over us like we were just a big speed bump. We did a lot of training on road cratering and bridge-blowing.

There are no permanent bodies of fresh water in Libya and I do not recall seeing anything like a hill from Sabratha to Leptis Magna. Digging in is only feasible around specific strategic points like towns or port facilities. You would need an unbroken line of fortified positions stretching at least 35 miles inland to the djebel to fully-secure your flanks.

 

[geni]

You don't see one because there isn't one. Maybe in backrooms leaders are talking about how to save face on this debacle but they still don't know what to do. There are a few ways I can think of to exit fast. One: Kill Gadaffi and wish them luck as we wave goodbye. Two: Pull out all support now and wish them luck as we wave goodbye. Three: Give the rebels arms and wish them luck as we wave goodbye. None of those look like they are going to happen. So it will be a quagmire for the foreseeable future.

Eh we've got pretty used to frozen conflicts. The problems with freezeing this one is that Misrata is still ongoing and the rebels don't appear to be able to hold a frontline anywhere.

 

[DanishDynamite]

Eh we've got pretty used to frozen conflicts. The problems with freezeing this one is that Misrata is still ongoing and the rebels don't appear to be able to hold a frontline anywhere.

They can't hold a frontline because just a few weeks ago they were just protesters and now they are freedom-fighters who used to be bakers, brie-sellers and braindeads. All have the fighting spirit but none have military training or heavy weapons or the knowledge of how to use them.

 

[Toontown]

No kidding! Anywhere in Europe, you have rivers and ridges or oceans and mountain ranges to funnel military movements. During the Cold War, most American units were focused on defending the Fulda Gap, where we expected most of the armor units in the entire Warsaw Pact too come steam-rolling over us like we were just a big speed bump. We did a lot of training on road cratering and bridge-blowing.

There are no permanent bodies of fresh water in Libya and I do not recall seeing anything like a hill from Sabratha to Leptis Magna. Digging in is only feasible around specific strategic points like towns or port facilities. You would need an unbroken line of fortified positions stretching at least 35 miles inland to the djebel to fully-secure your flanks.

Their flanks are not secure while they're running up and down the highway either. You don't have any flank protection when you're confined to a highway, strung out like the doo-da man. Kadaffy's forces are mechanized. They can move off road.

If the rebels keep running, they'll just be driven into a corner. Then they'll have no choice except to dig in and slug it out. They're just wasting time running back and forth. Unless they're trying to run out the clock on Kadaffy.

 

[geni]

They can't hold a frontline because just a few weeks ago they were just protesters and now they are freedom-fighters who used to be bakers, brie-sellers and braindeads. All have the fighting spirit but none have military training or heavy weapons or the knowledge of how to use them.

If they had fighting spirit they would be taking much higher casulties.

 

[geni]

Their flanks are not secure while they're running up and down the highway either. You don't have any flank protection when you're confined to a highway, strung out like the doo-da man. Kadaffy's forces are mechanized. They can move off road.

Not any more. Gaddafi is down to technicals. In any case Gaddafi's forces don't want to force the rebels to stand and fight it out. Might get messy.

If the rebels keep running, they'll just be driven into a corner. Then they'll have no choice except to dig in and slug it out.

The only place they have to make a stand at is benghazi.

They're just wasting time running back and forth. Unless they're trying to run out the clock on Kadaffy.

I doubt their is any actualy plan. One advantage of their tactics is that it makes it hard for Gaddafi to hide his forces from airstrikes.