Erdogan mission to become sultan over Turkey nears completion

[Lukraak_Sisser]

While I am no fan of Wilders, has he actually given any reason for thinking that anyone who doesn't agree with him would end up dead or in jail or given any reason for thinking he would rule like Putin or Erdogan?

His constant rethorics that only he actually represents the whole country, that all those who disagree with him are not really dutch and the completely autocratic style in which he controls his 'party' by filling it with yes (wo)men and immediatly sacking anyone who disagrees, does not fill one with confidence.

Remember, Erdogan and Putin did not start out like that either, they only openly showed that side by the time they had more power by slowly removing all obstacles after they had the government.

 

[Degeneve]

I wonder how Turkey's bid to join the EU is progressing. I can't help thinking that Erdogan could handle things a little better.

He could but I doubt he really wants that.

Beside should Turkey restore the death penalty as Erdogan apparently wants this would result in a full and immediate stop of all negotiations relating to the EU accession.

 

[dudalb]

Maybe some, but there is also the fact that no matter how many people always shout they will vote for him, his total lack of any form of plans works against Wilders.

And in the dutch system a Trump like scenario is far harder to get due to the different way our votes are counted. The 'winner takes all' scenario in the US and the UK isn't used here, so it is extremely unlikely a single party will ever get a >50% majority in parliament and they will always need to form a coalition.

And since a coalition means making compromises and Wilders would prefer an Erdogan/Putin like way of governing where everyone who does not agree ends up in jail or with an accident, that is something he never does.

Yeah, the Dutch do not like right wing authoritarian rulers. They have already seen that movie .

 

[ddt]

While I am no fan of Wilders, has he actually given any reason for thinking that anyone who doesn't agree with him would end up dead or in jail or given any reason for thinking he would rule like Putin or Erdogan?

He is fond of using the orange-white-blue "prince's flag", and the party has adopted the seagull as its symbol - guess which other Dutch political party used those two symbols?

He constantly speaks of "fake judges", "fake prosecutors" and even "fake parliament". He constantly has invective against the "left", especially the Labour party and D66 (think LibDem), he's said that there must be a lot fewer Muslims in the Netherlands. Take for instance this clip at his election meeting 3 years ago on the night of the municipal elections, for which he was eventually convicted for hate mongering:



The same night, German media drew parallels with Goebbels' Sportpalast speech. Note that he doesn't say how he wants to arrange "less Labour party" or "fewer Moroccans", by either (1) throwing them out of the country, (2) putting them in a concentration camp, (3) sending them to a death camp, or (4) something else, viz. ...

All in all, I see no evidence in his behaviour and his sound bites that he would not send political opponents or select ethnical or religious groups to jail or worse. Coupled with the obvious parallels with earlier fascists, that double negative is too close to comfort for me.

 

[McHrozni]

Looks as though The Netherlands dodged a bullet in the elections.
I wonder if the chaos in the US had an impact with the idea do you really want to vote a Trump clone into office?

I don't know Wilders enough to say, but I know a politician that works just like him. Calling that guy a Trump clone is a grave insult to Trump.

McHrozni

 

[Darth Rotor]

I found out from a British colleague that the Turkish officer whom I worked for back in the 90's is still alive.

But no longer living in Turkey, his homeland.
So, both happy and sad.

 

[FenerFan]

Sec. Of State Tillerson will be in Ankara next week. I' m sure the extradition of Gülen will be discussed at some level. It becomes a little more interesting in light of recent comments by an ex-CIA director that Michael Flynn discussed it with Turkish officials late last summer while he was an advisor to the Trump campaign. Specifically, it is claimed that Flynn discussed circumventing extradition and just whisking Gülen out of the country. Of course, Flynn is out and it's unlikely in the extreme that Gülen would have been or will ever be whisked awaY. Extradition was never going to happen under Obama, but I wonder if Ankara thinks there's a sliver of a chance under Trump. Personally, I think Erdoğan and his cronies like it better with Gülen in the US. They have their "Snowball" that is always out there, plotting against freedom and democracy (cough, cough) in Turkey. They can continue to threaten, accuse, and seize assets.
Also, what kind of stance will Erdoğan take with Tillerson? The vote on the constitutional changes is coming very soon. He'll want to score points with voters, of course.
My feeling is that the changes will pass, unfortunately.

 

[ddt]

Sec. Of State Tillerson will be in Ankara next week. I' m sure the extradition of Gülen will be discussed at some level. It becomes a little more interesting in light of recent comments by an ex-CIA director that Michael Flynn discussed it with Turkish officials late last summer while he was an advisor to the Trump campaign. Specifically, it is claimed that Flynn discussed circumventing extradition and just whisking Gülen out of the country.

That's also going to be interesting in light of the recent comments of Bruno Kahl, the chief of the German intelligence service BND, who says there's no evidence at all that Gülen was behind the coup.

(source: Reuters; original interview in German in Der Spiegel).

 

[McHrozni]

Sec. Of State Tillerson will be in Ankara next week. I' m sure the extradition of Gülen will be discussed at some level. It becomes a little more interesting in light of recent comments by an ex-CIA director that Michael Flynn discussed it with Turkish officials late last summer while he was an advisor to the Trump campaign. Specifically, it is claimed that Flynn discussed circumventing extradition and just whisking Gülen out of the country. Of course, Flynn is out and it's unlikely in the extreme that Gülen would have been or will ever be whisked awaY. Extradition was never going to happen under Obama, but I wonder if Ankara thinks there's a sliver of a chance under Trump. Personally, I think Erdoğan and his cronies like it better with Gülen in the US. They have their "Snowball" that is always out there, plotting against freedom and democracy (cough, cough) in Turkey. They can continue to threaten, accuse, and seize assets.
Also, what kind of stance will Erdoğan take with Tillerson? The vote on the constitutional changes is coming very soon. He'll want to score points with voters, of course.
My feeling is that the changes will pass, unfortunately.

Is an extradiction of a suspect something Trump can legally organize? I was under the impression this falls under the jurdistiction of the US courts, who do not answer to the president. Not yet in the US anyway.

As far as I know Turkey hasn't even sent the extradiction request yet. Since Flynn talked about how to circimvent that I reckon their evidence of his involvement in rather thin or even non-existent.

McHrozni

 

[ddt]

Is an extradiction of a suspect something Trump can legally organize? I was under the impression this falls under the jurdistiction of the US courts, who do not answer to the president. Not yet in the US anyway.

It has always to be approved by a court. And it can take some time. John Demjanjuk's first extradition took 2.5 years, from Israel's request in October 1983 to the actual extradition in February 1986.

As far as I know Turkey hasn't even sent the extradiction request yet. Since Flynn talked about how to circimvent that I reckon their evidence of his involvement in rather thin or even non-existent.

Can you spell "extraordinary rendition"? With Trump's and his cronies' love of torture, I can only guess they're a fan of that too. However, I doubt Gülen would put himself in a position where he could easily be kidnapped.

 

[McHrozni]

It has always to be approved by a court. And it can take some time. John Demjanjuk's first extradition took 2.5 years, from Israel's request in October 1983 to the actual extradition in February 1986.

And that was for a Nazi mass murderer, not a cleric who allegedly organized a failed coup'd etat that the government abused for their own coup in the next year or so.

Can you spell "extraordinary rendition"? With Trump's and his cronies' love of torture, I can only guess they're a fan of that too. However, I doubt Gülen would put himself in a position where he could easily be kidnapped.

With the help of a spell checker, yes I can

There is a major difference between kidnapping (suspected) terrorists abroad and letting dissidents from abroad be kidnapped in your own territory on many counts. For one, you don't do that to allies, only to enemies. US wouldn't be able to secure all that many pro-US dissidents for many decades afterward. It also requires your security services to be complicit in an act and act against their oaths of service, whereas kidnapping terrorists abroad requires your special services to follow their oaths of service. Kidnapping people abroad violates the law of a third country, allowing people to be kidnapped at home violates your own laws and so on.

I really don't see Trump having the capacity to pull it off, not without the lid being blown off very early.

McHrozni

 

[FenerFan]

Is an extradiction of a suspect something Trump can legally organize? I was under the impression this falls under the jurdistiction of the US courts, who do not answer to the president. Not yet in the US anyway.

As far as I know Turkey hasn't even sent the extradiction request yet. Since Flynn talked about how to circimvent that I reckon their evidence of his involvement in rather thin or even non-existent. McHrozni

Turkey sent a request at the end of last August and added some new files back in October.
I don't think it's going to go anywhere under Trump since Flynn is long gone. He was their point man in Washington. I would have liked to seen Erdoğan's face when he found out Flynn was toast. All that money down the drain. Still, he and his cronies have shoeboxes full of cash, no big deal.

 

[ddt]

And that was for a Nazi mass murderer,

Tsk, tsk, Demjanjuk has never been convicted. He died while on appeal in German court.

(I don't believe for a second he was not a camp guard somewhere. He admitted himself he had been trained in Trawniki. He also had listed his place of residence during the war as Sobibor; his explanation why stinks to high heaven).

not a cleric who allegedly organized a failed coup'd etat that the government abused for their own coup in the next year or so.

What matters here is that a court case about an extradition request for Gülen will center around the same issue as in Demjanjuk's case: the validity and authenticity of the evidence. In Demjanjuk's case, the papers that "proved" he had worked in Treblinka had been forged by the KGB. A Gülen extradition request may even also go to the Supremes.

With the help of a spell checker, yes I can

Did I misspell it?

There is a major difference between kidnapping (suspected) terrorists abroad and letting dissidents from abroad be kidnapped in your own territory on many counts. For one, you don't do that to allies, only to enemies. US wouldn't be able to secure all that many pro-US dissidents for many decades afterward. It also requires your security services to be complicit in an act and act against their oaths of service, whereas kidnapping terrorists abroad requires your special services to follow their oaths of service. Kidnapping people abroad violates the law of a third country, allowing people to be kidnapped at home violates your own laws and so on.

Kidnapping citizens of a an allied country has not been a problem for the US in the past; see the various UK citizens interned in Gitmo; nor kidnapping them on the soil of an allied country, see, e.g., the case of Khalid El-Masri, a German citizen kidnapped in Macedonia. But yeah, kidnapping them on US soil would be a step up.

I really don't see Trump having the capacity to pull it off, not without the lid being blown off very early.

I can only assume that Gülen goes nowhere without a couple of armed guards. He also has thousands if not millions of supporters. Kidnapping him would not go unnoticed.

 

[McHrozni]

Turkey sent a request at the end of last August and added some new files back in October.
I don't think it's going to go anywhere under Trump since Flynn is long gone. He was their point man in Washington. I would have liked to seen Erdoğan's face when he found out Flynn was toast. All that money down the drain. Still, he and his cronies have shoeboxes full of cash, no big deal.

Oh it did, I didn't realize it.

I can see Trump working with Putin, he could have something to offer. A lot of hot air to distract the voters from the real problems, maybe praise, maybe cooperation with extremists, maybe hacking the democrats one more time.

Erdogan though? The only thing he has to offer to Trump is another drag on his poll ratings.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

Tsk, tsk, Demjanjuk has never been convicted. He died while on appeal in German court.

(I don't believe for a second he was not a camp guard somewhere. He admitted himself he had been trained in Trawniki. He also had listed his place of residence during the war as Sobibor; his explanation why stinks to high heaven).

What I'm saying is that the gravity of the crimes in question was far in excess of anything Güllen could be guilty of.

Did I misspell it?

I don't think so, but I might

Kidnapping citizens of a an allied country has not been a problem for the US in the past; see the various UK citizens interned in Gitmo; nor kidnapping them on the soil of an allied country, see, e.g., the case of Khalid El-Masri, a German citizen kidnapped in Macedonia. But yeah, kidnapping them on US soil would be a step up.

It would be several steps up. It would be a major violation of US constitution to do so. US constitution doesn't apply overseas, which is why the base for such detainees is in Cuba. Ordering your men to violate a law you aren't a subject of is one thing, ordering them to violate a law you are is a tall order.

These are not trivial issues.

I can only assume that Gülen goes nowhere without a couple of armed guards. He also has thousands if not millions of supporters. Kidnapping him would not go unnoticed.

To live like that ... horrible. I would also have some sort of insurance somewhere, damning evidence I was kidnapped as to seriously embarrass both US administration and Erdogan, if possible. It would be made public if I disappeared without a trace, but I would promise to keep it secret if nothing happened to me.

It wouldn't have to be anything really big, evidence on a as yet unknown corruption scandal or something like that. Erdogan had his share of those, but finding one just before the crucial referendum or elections that will follow wouldn't be appreciated, I'm sure.

McHrozni

 

[TubbaBlubba]

Tsk, tsk, Demjanjuk has never been convicted. He died while on appeal in German court.

(I don't believe for a second he was not a camp guard somewhere. He admitted himself he had been trained in Trawniki. He also had listed his place of residence during the war as Sobibor; his explanation why stinks to high heaven).

I think the bigger issue is that they decided to press charges on him for "being a camp guard somewhere" for no other reason that the fact that they had spent 30-odd years thinking he was some other Ivan and didn't want to come up short.

Which is how we get Oskar Gröning somehow being an "accessory" to 300,000 murders for not making enough of an effort to be moved from his accounting job quickly enough I'm hardly sympathetic to the guy and his rather tepid excuses or objection that "the Jews should at least be exterminated within a certain framework", but the charge is absurd, especially considering they waited something like 45 years to charge him. Next up is charging the guys who maintained the trains, I guess. I mean, there was a reason they chose to go after only those who were involved in actually killing someone or in a commanding position - they'd have to charge large portions of German society at one point or another.

 

[FenerFan]

Tillers came and went. It seems that everything is going to be,the same between the U.S. and Turkey for the near future. Gülen isn't going anywhere and the U.S. will continue to support and fight with the YPG forces in Syria. Those seem to be the big issues discussed. Of course, Erdoğan wanted some movement on those issues, at least on the YPG. I still think Gülen serves Erdoğan's purposes better staying where he is. What do you think?
I give Tillerson credit for staying the course. (Maybe the U.S. can conduct foreign policy, as long as Trump isn't in the room.)
Regardless of the YPG's relationship with the PKK, they are brave and effective fighters and, IMO, the US is doing the right thing by supporting them.
As far as I know, Tillerson didn't push on the human rights problems in Turkey regarding jailed journalists and others swept up in the post-coup attempt arrest frenzy.
All in all, no better and no worse seems to be the outcome.

 

[FenerFan]

Well, today is the big day. Polls open shortly and there should be a huge turnout. The "yes" vote appears to have a slim lead in the polls, but there are a lot of undecided voters and maybe the polls are a bit skewed because people are afraid to admit to being "no" voters. Anecdotally, I haven't personally talked to anyone that says they will vote "yes." That includes my colleagues down to the chef at my favourite doner shop. The city is literally plastered with banners and huge posters of Erdoğan. The "no" posters are few and far between. Most of them get torn down quickly or those putting them up are harassed. Also, city buses are used free of charge to transport Erdoğan supporters to the numerous rallies that have taken place recently.
Let see what happens. My fingers are crossed.

 

[Sideroxylon]

Hayırlı olsun

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

My personal guess is that >90% of the voters will vote yes, Erdogan will immediately implement the new changes and then arrest anyone suggesting that maybe there have been irregularities in the counting of votes.