Early elections predictions

[Donal]

I think the most likely Flip is NC.

If Harris gets VA and NC, and the other expected states, she wins.

Even without PA.

Biden and Harris must go ALL IN with helping out NC.

The thing is, if she can't get PA, she probably won't get WI or NC. The difference in each state is going to be like 20,000, but they'll probably break in groups.

Thats why I think we're looking at anything from an electoral tie to a 319-219 victory for either candidate.

 

[Resume]

Trump cultists will do everything possible to overturn a tight Harris EC win.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

I'm too much of a frightened little boy to crawl out from the safety of the pillow fort I've built underneath the bed to even contemplate for more than a passing moment what could if not may very well happen.

Oh, Teddy says hi, everybody!

 

[acbytesla]

The scary thing about this election, is that from my point of view, everything is possible.

A landslide for Harris
A landslide for Trump
Or super tight where a few thousand votes are important.

I don't think a landslide or even a popular vote victory by Trump is remotely possible. But even though Biden won the popular vote by 7 or was it 8 million votes in 2020, 200,000 votes spread around in certain states would have reelected Trump.

 

[Craig4]

I think in Georgia and North Carolina, newly registered women voters will help Harris out perform polling. The registration trends look a lot like the Kansas special election on abortion last year.

 

[angrysoba]

I think the most likely Flip is NC.

If Harris gets VA and NC, and the other expected states, she wins.

Even without PA.

Biden and Harris must go ALL IN with helping out NC.

It’s a shame how some of the cynicism that we have come to expect of politicians has completely rubbed off on a lot of the rest of us.

Let’s help the people suffering from the effects of a hurricane… to win the election!

 

[angrysoba]

My money is on Kamala*. Lichtmann predicts her, the US populace is pissed by the GOP's antics, which should drive turnout, and she's leading in the polls. The GOP and Dump are embarrassing themselves at every turn, not that it seems to influence polling that much, but every little bit helps.

The fact that it the predictions over on FiveThirtyEight is 55-45 and not another 90-10 (or more!) is not where I expected the US to be right now, though, and it's shameful and incredibly scary.


*To you-know-who-you-are, no, I'm not actually taking bets. It's an expression.

To be honest, the only silver lining I see from Trump winning is that we won’t have to ever hear about Lichtmann again.

 

[Hercules56]

It’s a shame how some of the cynicism that we have come to expect of politicians has completely rubbed off on a lot of the rest of us.

Let’s help the people suffering from the effects of a hurricane… to win the election!

No, lets try EXTRA hard so that we can win NC!!!



Meanwhile DeSantis refuses to take a phone call from Kamala regarding hurricane prep, cuz he says its all politics.

Meanwhile MAGA calls it the "Harris-Biden Administration"

******* hypocrites.

 

[alfaniner]

I think the voting turnout will be the highest ever. If The FPaCFDJT loses, we will hear nothing but "I got the highest amount of votes ever!", with "for a losing candidate" handily omitted. Oh, like he does now. At least he won't still be in power for the changeover.

 

[plague311]

I think the voting turnout will be the highest ever. If The FPaCFDJT loses, we will hear nothing but "I got the highest amount of votes ever!", with "for a losing candidate" handily omitted. Oh, like he does now. At least he won't still be in power for the changeover.

I honestly don't think it'll be the highest voting turnout. I truly feel that Trump has disenfranchised a lot of independents and Republicans. I think there will be a significant number of right leaning voters that won't show up. Enthusiasm for Trump has been pretty low from my anecdotal viewpoint. I don't know what's going on with polling right now, as it seems to flip flop a lot, but I'm not sure it's an accurate reflection of how close it will be.

No, I have nothing to support that, just a feeling I have.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

I'm consistently wrong enough that it feels like jinxing it to say out loud, but I'm optimistic about this election. Not even guardedly so - genuinely optimistic.

I saw the 2020 election as something like a backstop for Democrats. They had nothing. Absolutely nothing. The single reason to vote for Joe Biden was that he wasn't Trump. He wasn't going to fix anything, he didn't excite anyone, but he wasn't Trump. That was all. It turned out to be just barely enough.

I see this election as the opposite. This is the red backstop. Anyone still voting Republican, I don't think you're going to reach. The GOP still has Trump hanging around their neck, and holy dancing cannolis he's worse than ever. I don't need to waste electrons describing what a soiled diaper with a wig this jackass is or how everyone knows it whether they admit it or not. He's literally getting shot at by his own supporters and no one cares.

Meanwhile Harris has been running a more or less flawless campaign. I can't think of a single thing I'd do differently and you all know I got opinions. She's smart and genuine and charismatic, she's engaging the Zoomers, her twitter feed is one continuous burn that started with murder and just never let up. She had the choice of a sensible, boring, focus grouped, demographically motivated VP pick but instead went with America's Dad who was an instant success. Everyone from Taylor Swift to Dick Cheney is on her side. Jimmy Carter is hanging on to life just to vote for her.

And above everything still is the abortion issue. Dobbs was a victory for Republican rat****ery, but it's turned out to be a pyrrhic one. Abortion is turning out Dem voters in droves.

The only thing that doesn't jibe with all of that is the polling, that consistently points to a neck and neck race. I've heard some harsh criticisms of modern polling methodology, but I'm not a pollster myself, I'm not going to point fingers. Either I'm deeply, deeply wrong or they are, and all's I can say is I'm not being paid to sell headlines. Maybe we are only two points ahead, but let's vote like we're two points behind anyway.

 

[ahhell]

Its gonna be a **** show.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

I honestly don't think it'll be the highest voting turnout. I truly feel that Trump has disenfranchised a lot of independents and Republicans. I think there will be a significant number of right leaning voters that won't show up. Enthusiasm for Trump has been pretty low from my anecdotal viewpoint. I don't know what's going on with polling right now, as it seems to flip flop a lot, but I'm not sure it's an accurate reflection of how close it will be.

No, I have nothing to support that, just a feeling I have.

If the lack of enthusiastic crowds at his rallies, and all the Republicans flipping and endorsing Harris are any indication, they are indeed growing tired of him. Hopefully that translates into (edit, a significant number of) people who support Dump and the GOP sitting the election out.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Oh, by the way:

The only thing that doesn't jibe with all of that is the polling, that consistently points to a neck and neck race. I've heard some harsh criticisms of modern polling methodology, but I'm not a pollster myself, I'm not going to point fingers. Either I'm deeply, deeply wrong or they are, and all's I can say is I'm not being paid to sell headlines. Maybe we are only two points ahead, but let's vote like we're two points behind anyway.

Before he stepped down due to burnout, Beau of the Fifth Column was always adamant that polls did not matter, but turnout did. And between Roe vs Wade, Project 2025, and, you know, the hatred and fear of Drumpf and fascism in general, Democrats seem to be way more engaged than the trumpkins.

Then again, said trumpkins have been fed some absolutely bat **** ideas about how horrible things will be if Democrats come to power, so one never knows.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

One thing for sure…the right-wing mediasphere will be delighted if Kamala wins. Like it’s Christmas morning and Santa brought ponies for everyone. They like nothing better than to broadcast, write, blog, podcast, social media post, and tweet against Democrats in power.

Actually, not like. L O V E.

 

[The Atheist]

I've been saying it for weeks, so I'll say it again - Harris in a landslide, as in 300+ EC votes.

 

[Samson]

JD Vance is by a country mile the most intelligent candidate, so it is a win for the Republicans.
Kamala Harris looks more moronic as each day passes.
You all know that, but somehow far left pattern denial is clouding your judgement.
Trump is largely irrelevant.

 

[thaiboxerken]

JD Vance is what a moron thinks of when they think of what a smart person is.

 

[alfaniner]

I've been saying it for weeks, so I'll say it again - Harris in a landslide, as in 300+ EC votes.

Go for knockout, make it objective. That's the best way to quash much of the argument for it being rigged. Of course, that would just prove it to some.

 

[Delvo]

The current surveys say Harris is ahead, but that's just an "if it were done today" snapshot, and Harris's recent behavior has been exactly how to shift people away from her and lose, if she possibly still can in the time we have left. So I have no prediction until we get closer and see how much it's even possible to change things anymore.