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Early elections predictions

Who will win US presidential elections of 2024 ?

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Dr.Sid

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With not even a month remaining, shoot your shots.
Please note this is prediction of the result, not what you want to happen. If you get it right, you win bragging rights and you can "I told you so" exactly 3 times.
 
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Kamala Harris will win the popular vote by several million votes but lose the Electoral College by a significant margin. There will be several swing states which Donald Trump will edge where there will be claims of electoral irregularities relating to people not being allowed to vote and postal and absentee ballots not being counted. Several months down the line these claims will be shown to be true but by then it'll be far too late.
 
I think it is too close to call, but I'm leaning towards a Kamala Harris victory in hope that it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
Trump will die of a heart attack two days before the election. Harris will win. The Republicans will try to have it overturned because it's "not fair", but they will try to pick a different candidate than Vance because he's a weird creep who could never win on his own. Vance will angrily respond by spilling lots of tea about other Republicans. Fuzzy sweaters in earth tones will be trending this winter.
 
Kamala will win the election based on votes. Trump will be installed by SCOTUS and other legal shenanigans leading up to a SCOTUS installation.
 
The Don said:
Kamala Harris will win the popular vote by several million votes but lose the Electoral College by a significant margin. There will be several swing states which Donald Trump will edge where there will be claims of electoral irregularities relating to people not being allowed to vote and postal and absentee ballots not being counted. Several months down the line these claims will be shown to be true but by then it'll be far too late.
Click to expand...

Like the 2000 election, but much worse.
 
Just because Trump's voting machine conspiracies were baseless, it doesn't mean that they are invulnerable to bad actors, and I'm afraid that in some key states, votes could be not subverted
 
My money is on Kamala*. Lichtmann predicts her, the US populace is pissed by the GOP's antics, which should drive turnout, and she's leading in the polls. The GOP and Dump are embarrassing themselves at every turn, not that it seems to influence polling that much, but every little bit helps.

The fact that it the predictions over on FiveThirtyEight is 55-45 and not another 90-10 (or more!) is not where I expected the US to be right now, though, and it's shameful and incredibly scary.


*To you-know-who-you-are, no, I'm not actually taking bets. It's an expression.
 
Here is my prediction:

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or this:

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Every time abortion has been on the ballot since the overturning of Roe, it's passed in the 60% range, even in the reddest of states. It's on the ballot in 4 red states, Florida, Missouri (Where it's presently banned), South Dakota (Banned), and Montana. Logic dictates (I know) that an individual voting to protect abortion rights isn't going to vote for the person that made that vote necessary in the first place. I expect Florida, or whatever's left of it, to be the first to go blue election night. Missouri will follow, then S.D., Montana may hold, but by then it won't matter.
At least that's what I'm thinking will happen, and a lot can change in the next few weeks.


https://www.kff.org/womens-health-p...ated-state-constitutional-amendment-measures/
 
Mike! said:
Every time abortion has been on the ballot since the overturning of Roe, it's passed in the 60% range, even in the reddest of states. It's on the ballot in 4 red states, Florida, Missouri (Where it's presently banned), South Dakota (Banned), and Montana. Logic dictates (I know) that an individual voting to protect abortion rights isn't going to vote for the person that made that vote necessary in the first place. I expect Florida, or whatever's left of it, to be the first to go blue election night. Missouri will follow, then S.D., Montana may hold, but by then it won't matter.
At least that's what I'm thinking will happen, and a lot can change in the next few weeks.


https://www.kff.org/womens-health-p...ated-state-constitutional-amendment-measures/
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A poll just dropped today with a 14 point lead for Trump in Florida. I don't think it's flipping, or any of those other states.
 
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Dread Pirate Roberts said:
A poll just dropped today with a 14 point lead for Trump in Florida. I don't think it's flipping, or any of those other states.
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I think the most likely Flip is NC.

If Harris gets VA and NC, and the other expected states, she wins.

Even without PA.

Biden and Harris must go ALL IN with helping out NC.
 
Hercules56 said:
I think the most likely Flip is NC.

If Harris gets VA and NC, and the other expected states, she wins.

Even without PA.

Biden and Harris must go ALL IN with helping out NC.
Click to expand...

That's why Trump and his enablers are filling the airways with stories about Kamala Harris's failure to provide needed aid to the area. It doesn't make any sense, but it might shift the polls a bit with the perpetually clueless...
 
The scary thing about this election, is that from my point of view, everything is possible.

A landslide for Harris
A landslide for Trump
Or super tight where a few thousand votes are important.
 
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