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Did Jon-Benet Ramsay's brother kill her?

AlaskaBushPilot said:
The track record on child killers would suggest that if Burke is guilty, if he has gotten away clean, that we'll see some bad results out of him as an adult.

...

If it was the Father and he is some kind of child killer pervert - same thing. That is not a one-shot deal: normal all your life then rape and kill your daughter and then normal again the rest of your life? That seems unlikely.
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Except Dad is like 75 years old now, so I really don't think he is likely to do it again, at least at this point. (I'm not saying he did it to begin with).

Either way, it's been 2 decades since the crime and neither Burke nor Dad have done anything similar. Does this mean you don't think they were involved?
 
Ampulla of Vater said:
Except Dad is like 75 years old now, so I really don't think he is likely to do it again, at least at this point. (I'm not saying he did it to begin with).

Either way, it's been 2 decades since the crime and neither Burke nor Dad have done anything similar. Does this mean you don't think they were involved?
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This is an "all else the same" argument, that a person who was under suspicion for an unproven crime already, and was guilty, has a far higher likelihood of being a convicted criminal later.

After 20 years then you say "all else the same" it decreases the likelihood that they were the criminal. It does not mean you resolve to believe they are innocent.
 
From the article:

"The sensational letters were sent to music publicist Michael Vail, a former school mate of Oliva's, who has reportedly suspected his involvement in the crime for years.

The shock admission is one of the biggest breakthroughs in the now infamous case, which has stumped detectives for years.

"My suspicions began when Gary called me late at night on December 26, 1996. He was sobbing and said, 'I hurt a little girl'," the 55-year-old told the publication.

The next day he saw a newspaper headline about a 'slain girl' in Boulder, Colorado, sparking his long held suspicions around his former friend."

Did Mr. Vail ever contact the authorities about his suspicions?
 
Jungle Jim said:
From the article:

"The sensational letters were sent to music publicist Michael Vail, a former school mate of Oliva's, who has reportedly suspected his involvement in the crime for years.

The shock admission is one of the biggest breakthroughs in the now infamous case, which has stumped detectives for years.

"My suspicions began when Gary called me late at night on December 26, 1996. He was sobbing and said, 'I hurt a little girl'," the 55-year-old told the publication.

The next day he saw a newspaper headline about a 'slain girl' in Boulder, Colorado, sparking his long held suspicions around his former friend."

Did Mr. Vail ever contact the authorities about his suspicions?
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Re: the highlighted

This is from the Daily Mail so take it for what it's worth but according to their article he did report it a few times:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...nfesses-killing-JonBen-t-Ramsey-accident.html

'I immediately called the Boulder Police Department and told them what I knew about Gary and what he had told me just days earlier. They didn't get back to me.

'Three months later I called the police again to find out what was going on in its investigation of Gary, but instead I was sent to a police answering machine set up for tips on the JonBenét case.

'I left a message on the recorded line and again I never heard back from investigators.'
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His profiles should be in a data bank.

Chris_Halkides said:
"Findings. "The coroner took nail clippings from JonBenet. Male DNA was found under JonBenet's right hand fingernail that does not match that of any Ramsey. (SMF P 174; PSMF P 174.) Defendants also assert that male DNA was found under JonBenet's left hand fingernail, which also does not match that of any Ramsey. (SMF P 173.)" (Carnes 2003:22)" link

Some of the links at this site are broken, and I don't know how carefully and objectively the data were assembled by whoever the host is. However taking the information as a given, I would say that it points to the likely involvement of an outside male. Foreign DNA under fingernails is found roughly 5-20% of the time in various studies. One study put the number higher, but most of that was intimate partner DNA (see "Misleading DNA Evidence, pp. 67-80 and pp. 43-46). If the nails still exist, someone should try Y-chromosomal DNA profiling. That might work even in the presence of JonBenet's DNA, although degradation and depletion of the sample is an issue.
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Gary Oliva's DNA profiles could potentially be checked against any of the profiles that are associated with this case. I would be especially interested in the fingernail DNA.
 
'I immediately called the Boulder Police Department and told them what I knew about Gary and what he had told me just days earlier."

The girl is killed basically on the 26th, late at night on the 25th.

Vail reads the paper on the 27th.

How did Oliva confess "days" earlier?

Oliva could only have confessed "yesterday".

Besides, Jonbenet's death was as far from an accident as you can get, so Oliva is lying.
 
One thing this report had in common with the various unlikely bits of stuff I see linked to or emailed by Trump conservatives was that if it were true it would be a story of major public interest and it would have been reported prominently by major news outlets. It wasn't, so the probable situation was that it was BS.

It was certainly reasonable to consider it probable BS until the Boulder police department had issued a public statement about it, confirming that it was something they were taking seriously. Or at least until after a mainstream outlet had reported that sources had confirmed that the story was significant.

As it is, the JBR murder remains one of those few stories that I follow where there seems to be enough evidence to support a theory about what is probable but all the most significant possibilities seem improbable.

For me this is similar to the Anastasia story before the truth was revealed. With hindsight I feel like I should have figured out that Anna Anderson's story was bogus but I didn't figure it out until the DNA tests results were revealed. So now I'm roughly in the same situation. And if the truth is revealed I have a feeling that I will think that I should have figured it out, but as of now without the benefit of hindsight I haven't figured it out.
 
John Ramsey is the most probable suspect but if they can't prove prior sexual abuse that's the end of the case. The police never focused on him, but then again they were incompetent and stupid.
 
Vixen said:
There are always nutters coming out of the woodwork to claim 'credit' for a notorious murder.
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I'm a nutter coming out of the woodwork to claim credit for solving this case. It was JR! Or maybe it wasn't? Hopefully this helps.
 
I believe this is a case that will never be solved. I do not believe immediate family had any involvement. John Ramsey does not have a history of abuse, and to this day has not displayed the type of behavior that is suspect.
 
davefoc said:
One thing this report had in common with the various unlikely bits of stuff I see linked to or emailed by Trump conservatives was that if it were true it would be a story of major public interest and it would have been reported prominently by major news outlets. It wasn't, so the probable situation was that it was BS.

It was certainly reasonable to consider it probable BS until the Boulder police department had issued a public statement about it, confirming that it was something they were taking seriously. Or at least until after a mainstream outlet had reported that sources had confirmed that the story was significant.

As it is, the JBR murder remains one of those few stories that I follow where there seems to be enough evidence to support a theory about what is probable but all the most significant possibilities seem improbable.

For me this is similar to the Anastasia story before the truth was revealed. With hindsight I feel like I should have figured out that Anna Anderson's story was bogus but I didn't figure it out until the DNA tests results were revealed. So now I'm roughly in the same situation. And if the truth is revealed I have a feeling that I will think that I should have figured it out, but as of now without the benefit of hindsight I haven't figured it out.
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A child pageant star ends being murdered.
Not a coincidence, tragically she was seen in public and someone tracked her.
 
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