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Denmark: Autism-MMR link back?

CFLarsen said:
Take a look at the graph again (Goldman, graph 2). You have about 43 cases per 100,000 for 0-4 year olds, and about 68 cases per 100,000 for 5-9 year olds. I would say that the 0-4 year age group is not statistically insignificant to rule it out on that basis.

Perhaps. But as it was explained to me over on the second-hand smoke thread, it's apparently not that simple. That's why I want to hear from someone skilled in statistics.

Why are 0-4 year olds still diagnosed with autism, if they are not getting the thimerosal vaccine anymore?

As far as I can see, Goldman and the othes aren't claiming this is the sole cause of autism.

I made my point on this. If you want a pissing contest, go elsewhere.

No, you haven't. Once again, you've made a disparaging remark against me, and once again you're refusing to back it up.
 
Darat said:
It's a "failing" of the peer review process in that it actually means nothing in itself; it all depends on the quality of the “peers” doing the review.

You and I could start a journal about, say creationism, and then because we've read the Bible decide we are "peers" and then every paper that is submitted we could "peer review" and truthfully state "Our journal is peer-reviewed."

Understood. I wonder how we can find out which "peers" review this journal and check out their integrity?
 
shanek said:
Perhaps. But as it was explained to me over on the second-hand smoke thread, it's apparently not that simple. That's why I want to hear from someone skilled in statistics.

It is very simple: Around 1994, the criteria for autism is changed. After which the numbers for all age groups increase.

shanek said:
As far as I can see, Goldman and the othes aren't claiming this is the sole cause of autism.

So?

shanek said:
Um, problem: this paper is "Thiomersal not linked to autism," but in the Goldman paper it says, "The MMR vaccine does not
contain thimerosal." So that's a different claim entirely.

It doesn't contain thimerosal anymore.
 
shanek said:
Well, as far as that link goes, it's nothing more than an assertion of Bowditch. The other links I think are going to be much more useful to me.
Take note that nobody disagreed with him. On that list you find lengthy debates, on this subject there was no debate. Nobody defended AAPS.

Also take note that the unreliable source of your posted study are the only ones that find anything wrong with other legitimate studies.


A discussion on AAPS and their misinformation:
http://www.pcc.com/lists/pedtalk.archive/9909/0036.html
Note that AAPS is considered "antivaccine people".

Glossary of Individuals and Groups Frequently Encountered in Discussions of Opposition to Vaccines and / or Vaccine Policy
http://www.cinam.net/son3-1-cp.html

AAPS Listed under "Key purveyors of anti-vax misinformation"
http://www.geocities.com/healthbase/vaccination.html

AAPS Listed Here under Questionable Organizations:
http://www.quackwatch.org/04ConsumerEducation/nonrecorg.html

The fact that they lie about numerous issues like vaccine testing ought to be a red flag.
 
CFLarsen said:
It is very simple: Around 1994, the criteria for autism is changed.

And if you read the paper, they allowed for that. If you're going to debunk a paper, you shouldn't go around ignoring things that are stated directly in it. If you want to argue they didn't do a sufficient job in allowing for it, go right ahead, but don't just say "the criteria changed" as if they didn't know and didn't acknowledge that.


So your comment about thimerosal doesn't have anything to do with the claims made in the paper.

It doesn't contain thimerosal anymore.

Again, that has nothing to do with the claims made in the paper.
 
Eos of the Eons said:
Take note that nobody disagreed with him. On that list you find lengthy debates, on this subject there was no debate. Nobody defended AAPS.

I noticed that, but it's still not anywhere near as strong as a direct examination of them would be.

Also take note that the unreliable source of your posted study are the only ones that find anything wrong with other legitimate studies.

Perhaps, but I still would like to see a response to the problems they point out. My understanding is that scientists shouldn't go around ignoring criticisms of their work. One scientist finds something, someone else comes back with, "No, you're wrong," and the scientist responds, either with "Oh, you have a point, maybe I should reevaluate my data" or "Your criticism is wrong and here's why."

The fact that they lie about numerous issues like vaccine testing ought to be a red flag.

I would agree. But unless you can link to a definitive, verifiable lie by these two men it'll take me awhile to get there myself by following the links you've given (which I appreciate, BTW).
 
Yazbak lying as usual:

SIDS was infrequent before 1950.
http://www.redflagsweekly.com/conferences/vaccines/sept22_Yazbak.html

It's outrageous to make a claim like that in the first place! Goes spouting on SIDS the same way he does autism. Same lies about doctors being confused and vaccines causing higher incidence.


Actual information on VAERS and SIDS:

From 1985 (before universal HepB
immunization of infants) to 1996, the total number of
neonatal deaths in the United States decreased from 7.0
to 4.8 deaths per 1000 live births.16

During the years 1992
to 1996, the number of SIDS cases (the predominant cause
of infant deaths) reported to VAERS decreased by nearly
50% (US Food and Drug Administration, unpublished
data, 1998)...
http://sids-network.org/experts/poa9078.pdf



More found here
 
shanek said:
And if you read the paper, they allowed for that. If you're going to debunk a paper, you shouldn't go around ignoring things that are stated directly in it. If you want to argue they didn't do a sufficient job in allowing for it, go right ahead, but don't just say "the criteria changed" as if they didn't know and didn't acknowledge that.

I am not saying that they didn't know. Where do I do that? I am talking about the numbers, shanek. The data.

shanek said:
So your comment about thimerosal doesn't have anything to do with the claims made in the paper.

Again, that has nothing to do with the claims made in the paper.

(groan....) You are simply willingly obtuse.
 
shanek,

Does it worry you at all that Yazbak can't seem to get things right (to put it mildly)?
 
Goldman likes to say kids are getting shingles, and cases of shingles in children is on the rise since the use of the Chickenpox vaccine. He says that we must have periodic exposure to the virus in order to avoid getting shingles.

I can find no data to support his claims. I find it rather disturbing he makes these claims.

http://www.redflagsweekly.com/conferences/vaccines/oct28_Goldman.html

Shingles is most common in people 70 years or older. It is less common in people 50 years to 69 years old.

Hi source of information is "Vaccine". I have no idea if this is a reliable source of statistics on children contracting shingles. I'm extremely skeptical since it publishes Goldman's nonsense. Mothering magazine is entirely anti-vaccine, and I would suspect this other publication is just as biased.

To suggest we need exposure to virus in order to avoid shingles, that sound ridiculous to lil ol' me, but what do I know? In my microbiology course we studied these microbes. There is no reason repeated exposure to the virus would prevent shingles. If anything, repeated exposure should increase the chances of getting shingles later on.

Any help on Goldman's claims would be appreciated.

We get the live Chickenpox vaccine in Canada, and I can find no reports of a single case of shingles in children that are not immunocompromised on Health Canada.

You would think such a risk of the vaccine would posted on Health Canada as a bulletin. No such subject exists.
 
CFLarsen said:
...(groan....) You are simply willingly obtuse.

This is one reason why I have stayed away (including the fact that the only issue he picked out of my post was the Ratbags reference, not the questions about incidence and the DSM IV).
Whish are actually addressed here:
http://www.dds.cahwnet.gov/Autism/main/incidencrptfinal.pdf

Other reasons are that I will being taking my autumn absence soon (soccer is a 6 day a week affair for us) --- PLUS this is the birthday week of both sons.

Now one of those sons is turning 16 -- and since he had seizures as an infant with some resulting neurological development issues, I have been sideline witness to many of the changes in Special Ed issues over the years.

First off... since he had seizures, he could not be vaccinated with the DPT, but only the DT... because the pertussis portion had actually been verified with good reliability with causing seizures in children prone to seizures. This was the cause of one wave of anti-vax fever --- but that should have been answered by the introduction of DTaP (but in reality the folks, including Barbara Fisher who started the anti-DTP bit, have been conveniently forgetting that the DTP has essentially been replaced with DTaP).

Now... my son was evaluated for special ed because of his total LACK of speech. He was placed in a classroom which included kids like him with speech/language issues that had a couple of autistic kids diagnosed under DSM III.

At this time (around 1990 or so), it was very very hard to get kids early intervention for something as simple as "no speech". We were "lucky" in that the seizures gave a clue that the "lack of speech" was not just a case of a "late-talking child" (Thomas Sowell coming out with his book on "Late-talking children" did not help many who wanted to get early intervention for their kids). Many people who I talked to in person or online on the Compuserve Dyspraxia Forum were often disuaded by relatives and doctors from seeking speech therapy, always with the advice to "wait and see". The old misguided adage that Einstein "didn't talk until he was 3, 4, 5 or 6" is one reason I have read at least three biographies on the man (oh, he was speaking by the time his little sister was born when he was 2 years old, something I wish MY kid could do!).

Anyway... on to when he was going into 1st grade, right after the DSM IV came to be used. WOW!!! There was an incredible change of conversations on the Compuserve forums, and in the general Special. Ed. community that I hung around (school, Scottish Rite Speech Clinic, University Speech and Hearing Clinic and child neurologist's office). Now kids were being diagnosed and frequenting those places that I would never had seen before.

At least one is my daughter's age (who was born in 1994)... and he plays and communicated beautifully with her. BUT... he is in the small, quiet, well ordered classroom that the school district has set up for these kids who have this particular kind of diagnosis. These kids who his mom claims has "astronomer's syndrome"... since his dad is an astronomer (unemployed now), and is just like the astronomers that they have socialized with over the years.

THEN... dum..de..dum --- It seems to me since the DTP issue was addressed with DTaP, AND that more vaccines were being introduced than before (chicken pox, HiB, HepB), that someone discovered that there was a perservative included in the vaccines. AH HAH!!! That was the culprit (actually in the USA). Thoughts sped back and forth on Usenet and the listserve I joined for my son's disability. So... it was removed, despite very little evidence.

(I should note that my daughter was the only kid to get the HepB at birth... and was the ONLY one to not require speech or language services. Therefore HepB prevented a language disorder --- okay, in reality it is because she is a girl: by the way, younger boy only had a couple years of language services).

Okay, so they removed thimerosal... all is okay. Okay, dokay.

BUT THEN.... in 1998 some UK doc looks at a dozen kids (many provided by the lawyer who hired him to gets some data for a lawsuit). He concludes that even though he ONLY looked at measles in the guts of these kids, that the MMR is to blaim.

So now MMR is the bad guy... So now the electronic messages start clamoring about MMR (in the UK) which collide with the thimerosal concerns (in the UK)... which sometimes end up with the cause of all things being "the thimerosal in MMR". Of course, if anyone tries to interserse a notion that "thimerosal has NEVER been in the MMR", you are accused of being a danger to children (trust me, I have been so accused).

Anyway, it has been interesting to watch this all unfold over the past (cough, cough) 14 years. I have seen posts on Usenet and on the Healthfraud listserv from the Schlafly brothers and Jane Orient (who IS the AAPS), which has been enlightening.

Sorry, it took so long... but I must leave. See you after the winter holidays.
 
Aww, 'bye HCN. You will be dearly missed til you get back to us here. :(

Have fun with soccer and the birthday parties :) Merry Christmas if we don't see you before then :D
 
And yes, it will be the chicken pox vaccine under attack here, being new. Any vaccine will be found to have some direly horrific fault by the anti-vaccine crowd.

More lies from Yazbak:

http://pages.ivillage.com/vaccinesupport/antivaxsites/yurko.html

Buttram and Yazbak have used multiple pieces of information that are not, in fact, supported by the same medical literature that they reference (the laboratory values used below are also from Nelson Textbook of Pediatrics).
 
Thanks, Eos... though I have one other thought (just as I turn off the computer, aargh!).

Hydrogen Cyanide said:
..Now... my son was evaluated for special ed because of his total LACK of speech. He was placed in a classroom which included kids like him with speech/language issues that had a couple of autistic kids diagnosed under DSM III. ...

My son was in a special ed. preschool that was a direct off shoot of their Hard of Hearing Program. It was created in the late 1970's (after the first version of IDEA) when they were getting kids who could hear but could not speak --- but were not autistic.

I asked the teacher who was there when it was started, actually had helped create it with advice from a local neurologist what happened to kids like mine before programs like that preschool were in place. She told me that they were labeled as "mentallly retarded" and put into institutions.

By the way... to show how things change, especially with parental pressure. When my son started in the "dyspraxic" program it only went to the third grade. It now continues up to high school. I knew many of the parents who worked to make this happen (my son was put into a regular classroom in 1st grade, so I was not part of this).

bye for a while... I get to spend the November IEP meeting working on how to fully transition my son out of "Learning Disabled" Language Arts and Social Studies to a full regular ed. schedule by his junior year of high school.
 
Wow, good luck with that! My son is lucky to have joined a program that they have going through to High School age too. It's for kids like him that don't sit still for too long, and is very hands on.

It is encouraging to see schools finally getting on board. They had been trying to expel my child from grade one! He would never have made it as far as he has if there were no reforms to accomodate kids with special needs.

This is where money and energy needs to go. Not in placing blame, but helping the kids.
 
The question that perplexes me the most is this:

Why are some otherwise loving and intelligent parents so hell-bent against vaccination? Is it because they somehow hope/wish that vaccination was a dumb, useless idea in the first place, invented by callous, greedy sadists? Is it because they believe this to be so, then sticking one's head in the sand, in the hope that their kids will never be infected, is the right thing to do for your children? "Hey, little baby, I'am not going to let those evil sadists hurt you with their nasty syringes, and since there are no epidemics anymore (due to generally improved hygiene, of course), why even consider vaccination? You're safer without it, little baby".

Or is it the homeopaths and other scaremongering quacks that have managed to win them over?

I would be willing to make a very large bet, that if all immunization could be done painlessly, without syringes, then a very, very large part of the anti-vax choir would stop singing.

Meanwhile, I have to get back to my wife and convince her that vaccination is the right thing to do - not only for one's own children, but for all the others in the population as well. I'll be using this forum in my efforts, and I hope to bring her into active participation in the debate, too. Thanks for your help, folks!
 
Eos of the Eons said:
Goldman likes to say kids are getting shingles, and cases of shingles in children is on the rise since the use of the Chickenpox vaccine. He says that we must have periodic exposure to the virus in order to avoid getting shingles.

Hmmm...here's my understanding of this (feel free to correct me): shingles is caused by the chickenpox virus. In order to get it, one must have been exposed to chickenpox at some time in the past. Apparently, it lies dormant in the body and can flare up at pretty much any time.

But the vaccine for chicken pox, I understand, is actually cowpox. Can cowpox form the shingles?
 
Okay, by this point, it really is looking like Yazbak is a woo-woo, and Goldman isn't faring out much better. At this point, I feel very comfortable dismissing their claims.

However, this is still a very interesting thread, and I'm learning a lot here, so feel free to keep it going. I might also chime in with some devil's-advocate arguments to further my own education. Also, I'd still like to see a statistical analysis of the Goldman/Yazbak paper to see precisely where they went wrong.
 

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