Democratic caucuses and primaries

SuburbanTurkey said:
Or Biden could be Dukakis, Clinton, Mondale, or Kerry. There's no shortage of failed runs by boring centrists.
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But hey, centrists sometimes win. Dems haven't won with a distinctly progressive platform since back when progressivism was politically compatible with race-based concentration camps.
 
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Sanders fans made the mistake to assume that everyone who initially supported him did so because of his policies; but in fact, many just thought that he was more likely to beat Trump, what with his youth support and lack of Ukraine baggage.
 
Warren's continued silence as Biden pulls further and further ahead is deafening. Biden is the exact opposite of everything she claims to support as a politician.

Her entire candidacy has been a big disappointment. Prior to this, I would have considered her one of the most forceful progressive voices in political power. I hope she gets primaried by someone who doesn't retreat from bold ideas at every opportunity.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
Warren's continued silence as Biden pulls further and further ahead is deafening. Biden is the exact opposite of everything she claims to support as a politician.
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Oh would you give it a rest.

Biden is not "the exact opposite of Warren" who stands in counter to "everything she claims to support."

Trump is.

I'm sorry that your purer than the rest of our's, perfect untainted soul has made it so you can't differentiate between "Doesn't agree with 100% about everything" and "My exact polar opposite" but the rest of us have to live in the real world where you have to make concessions to get a meaningful win.

If "Moderate Democrat" and "Progressive Democrat" are as night and day as "Progressive Democrat" and "What the Hell Trump Is" in your eyes, you lost focus.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
Warren's continued silence as Biden pulls further and further ahead is deafening. Biden is the exact opposite of everything she claims to support as a politician.
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Speaking as a Warren voter, I have to disagree.

I would be more specific, but I've no idea upon which specific issues you think Biden will try to pull the nation backwards.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
Warren's continued silence as Biden pulls further and further ahead is deafening. Biden is the exact opposite of everything she claims to support as a politician.
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err - no.
Trump is the opposite, Biden is about 80% the same as Warren.


SuburbanTurkey said:
Her entire candidacy has been a big disappointment. Prior to this, I would have considered her one of the most forceful progressive voices in political power. I hope she gets primaried by someone who doesn't retreat from bold ideas at every opportunity.
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Warren got crummy advice from her team, but in the end, voters just didn't think she could beat Trump.
 
d4m10n said:
Speaking as a Warren voter, I have to disagree.

I would be more specific, but I've no idea upon which specific issues you think Biden will try to pull the nation backwards.
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Warren has cited Joe Biden's bankruptcy bill support as the reason for her leaving academia and entering politics.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/5/6/18518381/baccpa-bankruptcy-bill-2005-biden-warren

Biden supported a bill that made it harder for people to declare bankruptcy and escape from crippling debt. He was one of few Democrats to champion the issue and side with Republicans.

Warren has long talked about how regulators are captured by the industries they are supposed to regulate, and how that leads to bad outcomes and some of the worst excesses of capitalism. Joe Biden is the poster child for such a problem. The Senator for MBNA is trying to become president, and staunch "progressive" Warren has no opinion about that, it seems.

The Great Zaganza said:
Warren got crummy advice from her team, but in the end, voters just didn't think she could beat Trump.
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I'm not disappointed that she lost, I'm disappointed by the cowardly way she ran her campaign.
 
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SuburbanTurkey said:
Warren has cited Joe Biden's bankruptcy bill support as the reason for her leaving academia and entering politics.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/5/6/18518381/baccpa-bankruptcy-bill-2005-biden-warren

Biden supported a bill that made it harder for people to declare bankruptcy and escape from crippling debt. He was one of few Democrats to champion the issue and side with Republicans.
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Taking a look at that particular article you posted:

Supporters of the changes, like Biden, believed that too many people were filing for bankruptcy — often people with more ability to repay their debts — a problem that was costly not just to creditors but to ordinary nonbankrupt consumers.
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The main point of the legislation, however, was to address a belief by members of Congress that too many people were filing for bankruptcy and that this should be made harder to do. BAPCPA increased the amount of paperwork and fees that were required to file, while carving out an exemption for families earning less than 150 percent of the poverty line...Congress moved to impose a means test on access to Chapter 7 bankruptcy — making it much harder for families with incomes over their state’s median to make a Chapter 7 filing.

So it doesn't really seem that bad. If anything, it might actually be good for low-income households, since:
- People with lower incomes were exempt from some aspects
- Lower risk means that credit can be given at lower interest rates
 
Segnosaur said:
So it doesn't really seem that bad. If anything, it might actually be good for low-income households, since:
- People with lower incomes were exempt from some aspects
- Lower risk means that credit can be given at lower interest rates
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One of the graphs in the article showed basically no changes in the income distribution of filers, the one with the overlapping red and blue lines.

I might add (to SuburbanTurkey) that if you have to go back 20 years to find a policy conflict, you've not convinced me that Biden and Warren are really all that far apart today, even on this specific issue. He's no longer representing the interests of Delaware residents and their employers, hasn't been for quite awhile now.
 
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theprestige said:
He does? The headline promises deep detail. Drum only delivers a very brief, oversimplified summary.
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Well, I think the basic point is pretty essential: the concept of the "youth vote" is rather partial. Bit like it was back in the 1960's - the most visible and loud sections of the young people were actually a clear minority of their age class (unfortunately).
 
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llwyd said:
Well, I think the basic point is pretty essential: the concept of the "youth vote" is rather partial. Bit like it was back in the 1960's - the most visible and loud sections of the young people were actually a clear minority of their age class (unfortunately).
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I think the basic point might be pretty essential, if it's actually true, and it actually means what it's inferred to mean. To my mind, "deep detail" would mean several pages' worth of diving into the demographics, the relevant research, the statistical conclusions, etc.

He implies that there's significant variances between different "youth" demographics, but he doesn't actually get into the detail of what those variances are, how we know about them, and what they mean for the youth vote. It's just, "youth vote? Variances! Simple!"

And then his editor for some reason thinks that these two paragraphs should be headlined "deep detail".
 
Will Bernie win (a majority of pledged delegates) from any state primary contests after North Dakota?

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I'm thinking probably not, barring some unforeseen exogenous shocks.
 
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Segnosaur said:
So it doesn't really seem that bad. If anything, it might actually be good for low-income households, since:
- People with lower incomes were exempt from some aspects
- Lower risk means that credit can be given at lower interest rates
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This bill was the financial version of voter ID acts. Bankruptcy abuse among the people targeted was roughly as big an issue as in person voter fraud.

So now, all you have to do as the working poor to declare bankruptcy is not be able to pay your bills but come with with the $2K or so for the filing fee and a lawyer to navigate the red tape. So good luck there.

In related news, Biden was the Senator from Delaware. That Delaware is the home state for a whole slew of credit card companies is just a coincidence.
 
High risk, high reward strategy here:

Virtually the entire Democratic presidential primary has been predicated on one underlying assumption: the eventual collapse of Joe Biden.

More than a dozen of his erstwhile opponents bet their campaigns on it, and he’s proven them all wrong. But his last serious opponent standing, Bernie Sanders, is still clinging to the same belief — and that it will finally happen on Sunday night, under the bright lights of their one-on-one debate.
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https://twitter.com/politico/status/1239174698384207877
 
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So (and this could go either here or the Corvid politics thread) odds the Primaries complete on time?
 
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